scott bauer is in the cme. let's talk about housing, scott. you see positive signs on housing stats that we got today. >> look at it, david. the numbers came out. they weren't blowout numbers. they were higher than expected. the trend continues upward. what does that really mean? there are more houses on the market for potential buyers. you get this, you know, arena now, with rates the way they are. and then we get all these houses that people can now bid on. they can go right after them. what that means, that is good for stocks like home depot. stocks like lowe's. i think that is continue ages of this marketplace where we've seen some of these housing stocks as leaders continuing to the third and fourth quarter. liz: making a little bit of a sneak move has been the nasdaq lately. mark, we are closing today at a 14-year high for the nasdaq. david: wow. liz: let's marry what scott bauer said with what you feel whether people should be in stocks. >> well, what happened was, in 2008, 2009, a lot of people got panicked out of the market. they have

james at the cme. >> the fed continues to taper, the fed could new to taper cut in the bond purchases by $10 billion per month as expected. statement on was identical to the last one in april. information received since the open market committee met in april indicates growth and economic activity has rebounded in recent months. indicators show further improvement, unemployment rate remains elevated. household spending writing moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. restraining economic growth while the extent is diminishing, inflation has been running below the longer run objective but longer-term inflation excitations have remained stable. going to skip redundant language. the quantities of bond purchases will be cut from $45 billion per month to $45 billion per month. skipping over redundant language from the previous statement, the fed reminds investors asset purchasers are not on a preset course. the fed continues to hold the federal fund rate at zero to a quarter percent. and the fed says finally the comm

treasuries specifically, and todd horowitz in the pits of the cme, what was it like at 2:00 p.m.? >> we're moving up, the pits themselves have been quiet. a lot of outside buying that's pouring in here, especially because we have triple-witching expiration. janet yellen gave the markets exactly what they wanted to hear and firing on all cylinders and why they are so concerned on the s&p on a daily basis. still haven't figured that out. the markets are moving quickly and, of course, we're going to close at an all-time record high. i think i hold the record for being here, being the only bear in the crowd. david: not exclusive the only bear in the crowd. you don't particularly care what the fed thinks, you don't particularly care for u.s. stocks right now. on a day like today, doesn't that change your mind a little bit on u.s. stocks? >> we think it's great u.s. stocks are going up. we have u.s. stock fund. but it's a relative world, right? we don't live in a world of one country. 45 countries and many more opportunities outside of the u.s. we think there's, if you buy a basket of t

liz: what opportunities to use steeplechasing in the pits of the cme?> you know, if i could, i would like to mention, sort of piggyback off of what keith said i completely agree with his and point that this is a bull market. it will stable market. but one thing i disagree on is we should be analyzing gdp at all. this is not in a gdp driven market from the start. it has been an event driven market. if the market has to safety nets , the fed stopping their tapering in initiating more qe and the correction everyone is looking for that everyone will buy when it comes time. is that right? that is what these guys have been chasing and out you see it today. up on the day, but you will see that record time. this gdp number just as not matter because the market did not rally. it. liz: it has not this time around when that seeing stocks and to find a thing happening in the energy markets. and it does not come as a consumer. if the consumers lamina high price of gasoline level we are in trouble. we have west texas intermediate going higher and are bought gasoline

we're also joined by citigroup's oil strategist, eric lee, and bob is in the pits up at the cme. joe, to you first. you watched these markets as closely as anybody. what's your take on what we're seeing and the spike and shock we've seen in the market? >> it's happening in a sector that we've all talked about liking all year. it becomes a very difficult investment or trade because you're going to have to buy a lot of these energy equity names at high prices in some cases, multi-year highs. but that actually will be the right trade. we just had an 0 peck meeting. the call on 0 peck is going to be a million barrels more a day. you've got troubles in nigeria, troubles with libya, now iran, iraq, the oil production is not touched yet but there's a challenge the second half of the year. the plays off of this, scott, you look north, you're getting the canadian energy producers, sun core, canadian natural resources, they're catching a bid today. look back at the u.s., eog which i own, pxd, a lot of the large integrated names, you want to own them as well. the ultimate decision for the s

traders at the new york stock exchange, cme group and the nymex.out how iraq is playing into the psychology, but what was, was it the better than expected existing home sales? >> inflation. inflation will be the new buzz word for the entire marketplace both equity and bonds for quite a while. it goes back to the federal reserve that gave us the indication in that last meeting with janet yellen that they will be able to endure that little whiff of inflation we just got, that they're not willing to panic just because they're seeing inflation. as a matter of fact, they're hopeful that they continue to see it. liz: but then let me just jump in here. >> sure. liz: when inflation starts to rear its head, unlike other moves to the upside in certain financial areas, doesn't it move really quickly, faster than people can almost catch it and deal with it? >> well, the fed is telling you they have their hands firmly on the wheel and the gas pedal, the question is whether or not this art form they'll be able to execute properly under janet yellen. i give it th

go back to lincoln ellis in the pits of cme. how is it closing out, lincoln?tioning up for the employment report at the end of the week. tomorrow janet yellen speaks and we have mpmis overnight which should give us a sense how the global economy is doing as u.s. continues to struggle off the first two quarters. traders behind me positioning for the rest of the week. david: thanks a lot, lincoln. >> you bet. liz: look out utilities. the group is the s&p's best-performing sector in the second quarter and if i said that 12 times today, it has done really well. it is up nearly 16.5% year-to-date, far exceeding the gain of s&p 500 which is 9% or 6% for the s&p? should you jump in or is the ground now saturated, overvalued? joining us now, greg gordon, isi senior managing director and head of isi's power and utilities research group. as we start to develop four months, did you start to think of all the sectors utilities, the safe ones, this one will do well? >> when we came into the year, i think most investors and emotional experts on the group, including me though

traders at the new york stock exchange, cme and the nymex. what do you think? >> there is no difference with today's action, least resistance is higher, fed meeting tomorrow, some folks are saying it is not as important. even if they do nothing, we always have to keep an eye on what the fed is doing but the line of resistanc least resistap and the market drifting higher. liz; the fed meeting starting today, but we are watching all of the commodities, specifically energy. what are people saying about the iraqi situation? >> it is quiet. it is as though you're looking at the supply numbers tomorrow, thinking there is going to be bills. ever since iraqi situation started the fear has been in the brent crude oil contract. in the spread between the wti and the brent h is moving out which makes the diesel fuel more expensive and the gasoline. liz; now we get to treasuries. we can never ignore this because it is such a huge trade and when treasuries movie gives us indication of the kind of fear better than the volatility index is doing. it is moving lower today. what

brett willsy remaining cautious but optimistic on the market, and mark sebastien in the pits of the cme, you gave us the primer how to put stop losses in, but the market keeps going up. >> exactly right. until we see some sort of catalyst, the dow, the russell 2000, the nasdaq, equities as a whole is up. bonds aren't doing anything, people are searching for yields, you see the equity indexes continue to rally. you see the vick continue to be depressed. i think we're going to see the markets potentially next week, the dow 17,000, s&p 2000. so we'll be looking at 2000 for the 4th of july i think in the next week. you know, all the momentum is higher. it's a slow grind higher but higher and higher and higher. david: brett, one thing that is not slowing down is m and a activity, we had the medtronic, $42 billion deal that may come into line. if we stay at current pays on m&a's, we will have $3.5 trillion over this year. some people say that as a bad sign, there is a professor at harvard came out each of the last five great merger ways on market ended with a precipitous decline in equity pri

dan stesich from the pits of the cme. dan, you heard david talk about how we came up from a pretty deep floor. what brought us up there, to relatively neither here nor there day you call it. >> it was a here today. we had bullard came out say we might see fed tightening coming in the first quarter. i think that would have put pressure on market. there was no bad news, so the market gained what it lost yesterday. we came out basically unchanged. i'm surprised at the strength of it. i'm not afraid of the strength of it. i do like it and i will go forward with it right now. david: chris, this fed member doesn't even vote, but even in light of negative statements by the fed, negative perceived by the market it managings to do okay. >> i don't find it that surprising actually. because i think the market shrugged off a lot of bad news this year. think about transition to bernanke-led fed to yellen that was a big question mark. we had huge geopolitical ripples go through the market and russia with ukraine and more seriously with

. >>> over to the cme group. rick santelli. hi. >> hey, karl.ffett considered the top of the heap when it comes to world class investmenters kov kerring decades. one of the things a like about warren buffett, something he said. i'm paraphrasing. when you wake up in the morning, look at your positions you need to fall in love with them every morning. in other words, whatever positions you have, if you wake up one morning and you look at the landscape of the marketplace and at the cme pivot around, where everything in the world is positions. if you don't like it, you've it h it for a while, you're probably making a flawed, strategic mistake. let's fast-forward to yesterday in the press conference, and i know -- by the way, steve liesman if you're listening, congratulations. little doubt we all knew the minute you asked. asked the only question that should have been brought up, considering it was first. i don't think the answer regarding inflation was necessarily up to snuff, but i really don't think all of the ire of yesterday should be on the not

scott bauer joining us from the cme. start with you and talk about negative interest rates coming out of europe. i haven't seen signs of them having worked anywhere they have been tried. why are investors bullish on it now? you know, they're really pulling out all stops. they took what we've done over the last four or five years and took it to the neck level. really draghi and the ecb, they feel their economy is stuck in the mud so badly they are really at a point they will do anything whatsoever to get this economy moving. i mean, if you think about it, just four, five years ago it wasn't out of the question or at least out of the conversation that something like that would happen here also. i don't know, when was the last time that happened? when the pilgrims came over? negative rates, really, that's putting money, you know anywhere you want to pump it back into the marketplace. that's what they're doing. you have to give them credit for that. whether it is really a bullish sign or not. that remains to be seen. i'm mor

larry shover, sfg alternatives chief investment officer down at the wild cme. larry i want to start with you. >> wild. david: let's talk about two things investors are looking at. one is friday's jobs number. we'll get the may job report and two, thursday's european bank decision. put those two things in perspective for us. >> well we have two potential game-changing catalysts and that is what the market is waiting for. consensus seems to think draghi will underwhelm. however there is a chance he comes with a big punch that will promote risky behavior all around the financial markets, whether bank lending, manufacturing and inflation. that matters. when it comes to the labor report on friday, it is not so much job adds or unemployment report although they matter. more about wage inflation. recall last month, it was unchanged. we're looking for a .2 increase. that is a best gauge for inflation in our economy. so, our broad narrative has not changed sentiments become a little bit rose ier. people are waiting for two reports thursday and friday. liz: indeed. gary,

and larry shover in the pits of the cme. let's start with you, larry. i want to ask you a quick question. you seem to be more optimistic than i would be. if we have trillions of dollars of capital on the sidelines doesn't sound like companies are investing in consumers or themselves. so why would you be optimistic about the market? >> right now i think it is more of a multiples market and multiples are not overvalued. my estimate is $119 for 2014 that puts us at 16.3. that is not overvalued. i'm rolling close to 2015 at $130. that takes us up 15 times. when you add that on top of accommodative central banks and on top of healing economic data. i think least path of resistance continues to be higher. i do recognize the fact that multiples aren't cheap but they're not yet overvalued. so i think the pain trade continues to be higher. liz: now we get to dan. you are bullish on the u.s. markets. you don't let a day like this make you question everything. so what happens in what is always expected to be quieter markets during the summer? >> yeah, well, i mean

michael gerka in the pits of cme. ashley webster also staying with us on the floor of the new york stock exchange. michael, i want to start with you, the bond market what is the bond market telling us about the stock market? >> well it's funny because we're in such a tight range in 10-year yields from 2:45 up to 2.60. basically telling you right now equities will remain king. for the same reason the bond market every time it sells off, seems though it reached a tapered bottom. for those reasons, i think the bond market is kind of not necessarily incorporation with housing right now. that is one of the reasons why i think stocks will continue or equities markets will in particular look so solid for at least another month or two. liz: peter, do you agree? we've had a good year. some say markets are overstretched. others look at price to earnings ratios going forward. it is pretty much within historical norms. where do you stand on this? >> i would agree with that. if you look at s&p 500 estimates for this year, 118, 119

are you seeing any flows on the floor of the cme toward that area?yes, we are just a little bit, you know? we've had our story last year, and i think folks even now six months into this year are still looking for another story, and they just don't quite think it's going to be the u.s. i really don't think we have any growth. you remember we've been throwing the kitchen sink and 85 billion a month, now we've tapered a lot of it out, but we're still not anywhere near where we need to be with jobs, with house, with a lot of the key indicators that are going to get us out of this mess. with what the ecb just did, there could be opportunities over in europe as well. so there are other opportunities that might give you more bang for your buck this year than the u.s. because we still haven't proven to anybody here behind me that we're anywhere near getting out of our problems anytime soon. david: and i know, gary, you were overweight overseas, and you think there are great opportunities. let me just take two areas and fight back on that. emerging markets, w

let's head back to gary kozlowski in the pits of the cme.to go. >> right now it is quiet and, again, there was a little bit of noise earlier, but we're still holding that debt, 1929 level. don't think we're going to have anything more than that. tomorrow we're going to want to be looking at the consumer price index early in the morning and the housing permits. and those two numbers could have a little bit of an effect, but again, everybody's going to be sitting tight, waiting for the announcement on wednesday afternoon. see what our fed's going to do, if they're going to continue on with the $10 billion or if they have something else up their sleeve because we really didn't have a lot of positive numbers the last couple weeks that came out, and there may be a little bit of a hesitation and just keep it going at that 45 billion level. as you can see, they're finishing up here. david: gary kozlowski, good stuff. thank you, hand. cheryl: the imf is cutting its growth outlook for the u.s. from 2.8% to 2% citing a significant slack this the econo

traders at the new york stock exchange, cme group and the die mention.th us today randy bateman, huntington fund's chief investment officer. his fund is beating its benchmark, the russell 2000. important for randy, he's got nearly $4 billion in management. ted by weisberg, to you first. what caused the turn around here? all the indexes were higher. >> well, yeah. could have been that interview with the fed fellow. i mean, any even hint of interest rates moving higher, liz, is going to have a negative impact on the market which is basically been on fed candy with, you know, accommodative fed candy for almost four years now. so anything that even smells of a change in direction is going to have a negative impact. perhaps some stuff in the middle east. but you had two strong groups today. you had the tech stocks kind of acting very well, and you had a lot of the housing stocks which probably reflect the positive housing numbers. so there were some bright spots, but the fact is i think folks are just looking for an excuse to take money off the table, and i g

chris gersch joining me from the cme. chris, i need to get to the feel of the pits. was there panic telling to dump out or pretty much some calm here? >> liz, there is absolutely some calm. we have low volume, low vix. that tells us, traders had selling there wasn't a huge pull back, only .6% in the s&p. so no panic selling. a lot of traders thought we would sell off a lot more with the spike in oil. the selloff just didn't come. adam: let me go to randy. you heard him say we have low vix. you think market is up year-end 10% yet you still think investors need to hedge. why? >> i think it would be a wise thing to hedge. we use a volatility hedge per our investors and some of our fund. so, you know, it is pretty smart to hedge your bets a little bit. you don't know what the next catalyst is going to be for the downside. so we don't want to sound like we're overly cautious. because we are optimistic, but, still, it is always good to have a plan when things don't go your way. right now, you know what is in t is happening with oil prices, is causing a lost things not to g

he is in the pits of the cme. >> thank you.ow realize it is really hard to argue against the fundamental landscape of the stock market. with that traders are not even really looking at stock market right now. they're looking a at gold, treasurys, oil prices to determine the future direction of the stock market. the macro seems to be okay. on the other hand traders also recognize we're getting really close to month end and quarter end. behind that, or the next thing that we're going to see is second-quarter earnings. it seems prerogative that we will see a surprise to the upside and continue to march higher. right now traders seem to think today is an aberration due to low volume, low attendance, et cetera. sponsorships, not that great. traders behind me tend to be very, very bullish long term. liz: thank you, larry, very much. larry shoafer. >> you're welcome. david: supreme court issuing a ruling yesterday that gives the epa authority to control greenhouse gas emissions for power plants, other large sources of pollution. howev

gives us three plays he says could be immune to a market downturn and larry shover joining us from the cmeld, usually when you get signs inflation is ticking up, you have gold up. today inflation up, gold down. why? >> well, it's because right now we have to remember the fact that monetary policy is the cross over gold's head right now, not necessarily inflation like it has been in the past. so just think of it this way, we had rates go down, ten-year yields go down. that should have been bullish for gold, and i'm talking about two or three months ago. it was not. right now gold seems to be following monetary policy which we know is very accommodative and still is, so we're going to see gold continue to struggle and probably continue to go down. liz: i don't know who to pick a fight with first, michael or jason, david, because i kind of disagree with both of them -- david: liz is the bull. liz: jason, do i need to smack you around? i can't believe this, you're bearish. you feel that a rising interest rate environment is hurting equities. equities are not getting hurt. look, there's always

let's head back to scott shellady at the cme. scott, how is it ending today?end obviously on a high he note. take a look at this. we have investors not pricing risk in properly i don't believe. we'll have to find a place to put cash. i think that will be in the stock market. when you've got say a third of s&p 500 stocks yielding more than 3%, that makes it look like a better deal than the 10-year at 2.5. the 10-year at 2.5 sometimes now looked at as hedge against a falling stock market. maybe that is why we see some of the rates break as the treasury market rallies, because buyers are hedging their long equity risk. perversely enough, i said this before we'll see the stock market slowly levitate higher as well as the bond market levitating higher until we get a better feel what the economy is doing. we have perverse market where stocks rallying and bonds rallying the first time. liz: scott, i didn't want to rub salt in the wound but i had to bring this. >> here we go. that's not nice. >> the kings beat, well, are they, your blawkhawks. you are a black hawk fin

for more, i am joined by michael, he joins me from the cme.tion, even as janet yellen metric of risk pools. the bond market is focusing on inflation. >> clearly the markets have looked to inflation for some time. statistically, they have been disappointed time and time again. one of the things that caught my eye is the significance of how the u.k. and the u.s. are so different on the date where numbers came out those on inflation and in housing. they went in two different direction. the boe chief, carney, spoke last week about being hawkish and higher rates earlier. for those reasons, i think the fed might follow the same vernacular. could tomorrow that they see higher rates. by no means is it going to happen because there is too much slack in the labor market. starting to see that with housing where it is that, the markets are preempting selloffs, only to watch it rise as we go into the third quarter. >> to you think there is a rethink in terms of what the fed might say tomorrow with regards to being more hawkish? >> absolutely. what the fed

traders at the new york stock exchange, cme group and the nymex. we have the s&p higher, gm got halted suddenly reverted in and out of positive territory, do we see the 23rd record today? >> this will be the fourth straight year with the positive gains for the first half of the year, so that is certainly bullish. we have bonds, commodities and currency the first six months. pretty interesting with these rally in tandem. i don't think you can be as optimistic over the next few months. none of these are really price related except for the fact look at the sentiment, season i remains a concern. now you are seeing negative divergence for prices trying to go higher but momentum fails to follow. these are all concerns people should look oh four thinking equities are likely on borrowed time. every race talking gm, stock has been up 10% since april. it looks like the stock has been stabilizing and has done quite well. from a glass half-full perspective. liz: really the index has outpaced individual stock picking if you just buy the aggregate, this is the b

the suit allegations the changes of the nasdaq and cme markets discriminating against investors by selling advanced access to market data. exchanges aren't commenting on the suit. >>> and tyson foods wins the bidding war over breakfast sausage. they will pay $68 for hillshire brands for more than $7.7 billion. that's $1 billion more than what pilgrim's pride offered for hillshire. both tyson and pilgrim's bids came last month after they looked to buy pinnacle foods. both offers required hillshire to terminate that deal and hillshire shares in germany are up by 4%. tyson foods coming under a fair bit of pressure up by 1.9%. >>> a new study shows ceos are drawing top dollar when it comes to their annual pay packages. seema moody is here with the details. >> that's right. the average pay for the top 200 highest paid ceos rose 6% last year to 20.7 million dollars. that's according to a study by compensation research firm aquilar. while pay packages may seem a bit excessive, changes in the way ceo pay is determined is improving the odds the top execs are earning the moment due to more independe

rick santelli at cme group in chicago.iations continue between international long shore and warehouse union and the pacific mary time association. if they don't reach a deal, the economy would have $2.5 billion per day problem on its hands. jane wells is live in los angeles with the story. >> reporter: i'm at the port of los angeles. they call it june gloom here when it's gray in l.a. in the mornings during june and it burns off. it's gray hanging over contract negotiations which are expected to continue through the experration of the contract which is 33 hours away. by mid-july, if there is no agreement between the 29 ports on the west coast and thousands of dock workers, well, could we see the pictures from the ten-day lockout years ago, the smell of rotting feed in the air? the maritime association or management, if you will in the contract, says west coast ports contribute $2 trillion to the u.s. economy equivalent to 12.5%, of total u.s. gdp. the l.a. port is the largest. this is an inbound ship coming in. traffic is

rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. >> a great time, just don't look at pension obligations. it say it all? worst first quarter since the best looki ining chevy of 1958. the chart, you can see we're below significant consolidation of yields between 257, 258, and 262. now, maybe the most important thing was brought up by my buddy, art. we talk about the yield curve. significant. flattening yield curve mean recession is imminent? does it mean people are thinking about the fed, what rates do on the market side before the fed does? i can't tell you that, but what i can tell you is everything in the market place reflects weak economic data. it's not geopolitical or weather. if you look at tens minus twos, this is the tightist the spread has been since june of 2013 in the 126 area. it's not the only one, look at fives versus tens, flattest in almost two years, august of 2012, around the 90 area. if we really want to look at something important, look at boom yields. there's a relative value trade. they traded down to 126, reflecting the dynamics of our market. quickly, three currenc

with bob iaccino, chief market strategist live from the cme pits. bob, start with you. we saw gains today. what propelled them? >> today you're looking at a situation there was lot of short-covering after selling from last day or so. people talk about friday moves. it is considering what happens in iraq and how it could escalate over the weekend, i don't see everyone holding position. you heard a bell at new york stock exchange. i heard a bid behind me. that is continuing to the close. adam: we'll talk about iraq and talk about oil quite a bit because it is important. i want to go to tim reali want . volume was light even though we closed up on the dow. a lot of people take this as sigh of relief. is it time for sigh of relief? you think the second half will be much harder on equities, don't you? liz: tim? >> adam, was it directed, yeah, i think it is the reality we pushed the envelope on valuation in a lot of asset classes. we're primarily focused on leveraged finance game as it relates to high yields and leveraged loans. equities are stretched. growth will be very ten

mark newton is at the new york stock exchange and andrew keane is at the cme., let me start with you. what has changed today? >> industrials are pulling back. this is one of the strongest groups over the last week this is one of better groups to have been in. starting to see a little bit of improvement in emerging markets also. that is a positive. we're seeing a little bit of a stalling out. equities have been up last 14 out of 16 days. logical to have a little bit of a pull back. melissa: andrew, temporary thing or the start of something bigger? >> s&p down 1 1/2 points today. they say never short a dull market. this is a very dull market. if you see how much s&p 500 futures moved intraday, up five-point range. average range is 10 to 12 points. volume on any individual equity name, 10% of the average daily volume. very, very light volume. i think there is opportunity out there. i'm not long banks or retail or home improvement stocks but i think there is opportunity in the oil and gas names. melissa: gentlemen, thank you to both of you. >>> a new report that sa

s&p turning positive for the first time today after yesterday's record close, the dow is up at the cmeat is driving the trade right now? >> if you look at the ranges, usually we make a 10 to 12 point range, 6 to 8 points. we are waiting for the employment situation. it will be a huge number. of the market needs to watch the reverse, we need to make a new all-time high and come out hot off of that number. it is price action and price momentum. i keep an eye on the futures, the number will come out at 7:30 a.m. central standard time watching futures trade. we rallied hard and sold out. if we have a huge reversal friday it could be a short-term pop but we are keeping an eye in the short trading range the last couple days. melissa: seattle fighting for 15, the city unanimously passing of vote to raise its minimum wage more than $5 from washington state's mandated $9.32 an hour is the highest in the nation. is said to take effect in less than a year. joining me on the phone is restaurant alliance president, thanks for joining us. what do you think of this? what does it mean to your business

fox business contributor phil flynn joins me from the cme. guys must be watching all this action? >> we are. we're talking about 3.3 million barrels of oil a day that was exported out of iraq last month. it is in jeopardy. this is spreading right now from city to city to city right now. in fact we had a report that turkey, who is on the border with iraq and has had disputes over some of the oil that is coming out of kirkut, which is a city right outside of turkey with iraq asked nate to get involved in the situation. very concerned the way things are developing on the ground. sunni militants are taking over different cities. there are concerns that this could spill over into turkey. the. now the president of iraq has vowed to come back in and take back the cities of mosul right now. seems like soldiers in iraq are running away. right now this is a very fluid situation. it is one that could blow up. one that could really impact oil over the next couple days. melissa: phil, thank you so much. we'll keep an eye on that one. coming soon to a driv

melissa: looking at new records, at the cme, what i you watching for?his is a slow market, 17,000, 45 points off of that, we have tight intraday ranges, never short a dull market. it continues to grind higher and some oil stocks, energy and an r o today. you never know what will happen over the weekend, there's some news out of iraq that could be bad for the stock market but everything looks like it will push higher to 17,000 and the s&p 500 futures. melissa: we loved it. a new warning on housing, mortgage bankers association lowering new and existing home sales forecasts will the two year recovery fall like a house of cards right now? veronica, todd schoenberger grant scott martin are with us. >> don't think it is good news. it shows the strength of the consumer, consumers are worried, they don't want to make a bet, pay for a house, they can't afford to if you look at the reasons both coasts of the country are so expensive they can't afford a house, that they do afford a house they are nervous to make a big purchase because they don't feel secure about

rick san telle is tracking the action at the cme. >> hi, sue.ough the world is focused on different aspects, it doesn't like to be watched, apparently, because it's hunkered down. look at a two-days chart. it says it all. you've had a bit of an up tick on yield, but for the most part, since then weeb ebb we've been doing a lot of work under yesterday friday's yield range. you can definitely see the etfs are having a strong day with regard to things that might not be as solid as treasuries from a credit perspective, hovering at the highest yield since may of last year, and speaks of currencies, if you look at a ten year, it would been associated with a dollar/yen. as sue is, to the interest rate complex. back to you, sue. >> thank you very much, rick. a closer look at the ipo tsunami. second half trades, and whether the dow stocks not hitting 52-week highs this year are a good investment. that's all straight ahead. plus we zero if on ibm. do you think big blue is a buy? go vote, cnbc.com/vote. >>> and can you guess where this video was shot? befo

rick santelli here live on the floor of the cme group.hanks for taking the time this morning, andy. >> thanks for having me. appreciate it. >> listen, you talk to a lot of trading entities from hedge funds to large retail, institutions, and one of the big themes of late is lack of volatility. if we look at the vix, the moves, we see it. what do you think is going on? >> i think it's fairley obvious that central banks in the world have pretty much taken out all the volatility. i think that's one of the things the fed is going to be talking about next week, the lack of volatility. the i think they're going to start to get scared. i don't expect anything like what carney said last night from janet yellen, but i think it's probably a month or two away. >> well, bring guests and viewers up to speed, basically carney from central bank of england talking about rates may be going up sooner rather than later. it seems to be a market dynamic. it certainly seemed to have moved the pound a bit. >> no question. it moved gilt and the pound, strengthene

guys, stay with me, i want to bring in analyst phil flynn from the cme on this one. phil, what has reaction been like? we saw a little bit after rally in oil prices. i think we have the chart. they went up now because there is more demand? or they're down now. >> it was about the spread between brent and wti. melissa: oh, yeah. >> the oil we're talking about exporting right now is very high quality oil. it is very volatile. and that's what we're talking about. it is called condensate. it is what we're getting outeagleford shale and all these sail deposits. the thing is, what is happening, we're really blurring the line of what crude oil actually is. the stuff that is coming out of the shale is so pure and so volatile that you really can't classify it as traditional crude oil. melissa: yeah. >> that is what the bugaboo is in the story. melissa: the devil is always in the details. james? >> this is a bibby step but hallelujah. this is great news. considering the democratic left that the president has to deal with that he can't go further, but to open markets this way g

melissa: the dow just off session highs right now, let's go to alan at the cme. influencing the trade today, alan? >> i think it's just a little bit of quietness here today after the big surge last week. last week was very impressive, and for me the big issue was the full v recovery we saw in the nasdaq. it came from a 9% selloff that we saw on the 14th of april, 15th of april, came all the way back. so that targets a measured move, push 9% above these recent highs. so there's a lot more upside, in my opinion. and the two stocks i like the most here in the tech world anyway were big dogs in 2013. i like yao and ebay. they both -- yahoo! and ebay. they haven't participated, so look for those to play catch up. melissa: alan, how do you feel about apple today? do you like it at all? >> oh, yeah, i love apple. my target's up at 690 and then making new highs. it seems to take a little bit of a break after this very quick move, and you're seeing some sell-the-fact type news, but it'll be back in play once again. melissa: alan, thank you so much. seattle is set to vote

let's go to andrew keane at cme. what are you watching for right now? >> we talked about this slow grind higher. it wasn't like catapulting higher, squeezing a lot of shorts out. we got to 108. we found selling pressure. there were immediate buyers underneath 105 should act as support. one thing i found was interesting, uso, which tracks the wti price saw institutional buyer come in to buy straddles. they're expecting big movement between now and september. kind of slow right now. we're not moving as much as i expected. i expected bigger movements. but in the future they're expecting more movement in the price of wti. making a bet between now and september, the price will not be where it is right now. melissa: we're looking next to you at a chart of brent. that is where we're seeing a lot of the price action, right? that is significant for folks on the east coast that is what is used to refine our gasoline. >> seems short-term top could possibly be in here for oil. see it pulling back here. there is a lot of fear priced into oil. with no resolution the

over to chicago, rick santelli, at the cme group with the santelli exchange.d like to welcome congressman scott garrett. welcome. it's been an exciting time to be in the house of representatives. congressman? >> it's always an exciting time to be in the house of representatives, so yeah. after the elections this week, absolutely. >> let's try to get to all of the stories of the day. i would like to start out with one that seems to be pretty close to your heart and a "wall street journal" story as well, fraudulent government accounting like to put it on the screen, cbo notes under fair value accounting the four student loan programs likely cost 88 billion and the official 63 billion windfall expected from the fha single family mortgage guarantee program is in reality a $30 billion taxpayer fleecing. you know, many people believe that you look at the cbo and you get the exact skinny, whether it's the obama care or some of these programs. >> right. >> when was this changed from fair value accounting in the '90s? >> yeah. i guess something like that. so the cbo, y

turn to alan knuckman in the pits of cme.o you think utilities stay on their run. >> people like the safety aspect of it. i think there are good stocks in the dow that haven't papered in the rally that condition also participate in the category as well. something like ge can get to 31 based on technical moves. that is another 20% higher or some that has inherent safety value in it. i'm looking at some stocks for the second half of the year that have been dises interested. i think yahoo! which had been, down about 13% year-to-date. it is up 40% over the last year. around think this 35 breakout area it come back to, think this is good base to lean against. believe it or not, staples, from reward to risk at this level, monthly basis something to lean on. it hasn't been below 11 since 2003. that is something to think about. i will go back to my go-to, i will go back to apple. get back above 59 in apple. we're going to 100. that is another 8% higher. lastly the euro currency has bottomed out. euro looks like it had a base. the dol

todd horowitz also with us in the pits of cme. start with you, tom. what is your take on today? >> hi, connell. hi liz. it was a little bit of profit-taking and we can talk about cantor losing election. can talk about a lot of things. markets will take profit at some point even if we to higher or lower. at some point the market will take profit. this looks like a little profit-taking. volume is down 30 to 40% of normal volume. we're seeing a national rotation, a little bit of selling pressure. boeing was under pressure. so the market sold off. it is down really a blip on the radar based on where we've been. liz: blip on radar. that brings us to robert luna who still says this is opportunity where you have to do the work to pick stocks versus entire indexes, robert? >> that is exactly it, liz. we work with high net worth clients and high net worth expectations. when they come to us they want to own more than a bunch of tickers in their company or portfolio. in last few years it didn't make sense. you threw a dart, market went up and you did well. this is finally type of environme

rick santelli for a check on the action of the cme. rick? >> hi, simon hobbs.a couple basis points. by the way, we auctioned 39 billion of them off. that's why the auction being over we're seeing rates go up, should we settle anywhere with a yield under 165, it would be a new 2 1/2 week low closing yield, and the last chart, dollar index, notice the low on it. that was a touch of unchanged on 2014. back to you. >>> thank you very much, rick. let's check on where we are with gold. what was interesting is today the weak gdp data actually gave 2k3w08d a boost, so closing for flat foss session overall. it was down on the argument that the weaker economic future -- let's look at how the ag commodities are faring. so far sugar soy bheen and corn have made substantial gains. general mills clearly a big user. the fourth quarter results coming in below expectations today. the latest results come in amid a seismic shift in the way people are consuming breakfast in this country. sarah eisen knows a thing or two about an early breakfast. >> we often share an early breakfas

let's go to andrew king at the cme. this is the dichotomy.he guests before you that this situation is getting much bigger, the whole region is being sold into it. at the same time, if traders get used to it as background noise, what is going on? >> we talk about it a couple times. a lot of the oil price factor in this the fact we haven't had a resolution, effective in the oil price over the last 12 trading days we have been stuck in a tight race between 105 and 108. i will look at the break out which is to the downside. if there is resolution overseas over the weekend, out we will see oil embracing 105, 101 in a heartbeat. or go to 120. the fact there isn't a resolution and they after day the price of oil goes cotter is not factoring that in. that is a fear to the downside. melissa: thank you so much. is a natural state of mind how food label using every antioxidants in the book to make your spending anything but organic. at the end of the day it is all about money. melissa: i am melissa frances with your fox business brief. 90 leaving after

here now is jonathan gilliam and til flynn at the cme.p talks with iran, good or bad? i saw you shaking your head. >> it's the same case we had in russia, we're getting to the point where we have the talk to people we wouldn't normally talk to, and i think that's what's happening in the breakdown not only in iraq, but in our national security and in the state department where we've put ourselves in ruts where we don't really have a choice in a lot of ways. melissa: so you think we should do that. >> they're prif i have the more information that we are, but we've fought wars and occupied bases and not countries. and now we've created these vacuums that are being filled by very, very vicious people. melissa: yeah. some would say, well, is this our problem now? we came in, we did our best, now we're gone, what do you say -- >> since we're talking on this station to a lot of people who invest and are into money, after all the things i've seen in the past 15 years of government service, this is the most realistic thing i've seen that can cause

let me get to the cme. what behavior in the markets should people focus on the most that is jumping out at europe traders? >> i think what we are watching is the risk to the downside. we had a much more accommodated statement yesterday from yellen than people thought. we had metrics indicating inflation was creeping in. we had good job data, so there was a large faction that belt we may see your hint at raising rates. that was the opposite when it came out. markets finished high, historically high on the day, but take a look at how far we have come in the s&p said smith april. we are up over a percent and it's a sizable move in a relatively short amount of time with no retracing to speak up. i think at these levels it's a difficult case to argue, to establish new loans without seeing some sort of retracement first. i would be surprised if we don't see this market trade under 1900 and possibly as low as 1860 before the month is over . that 150 moving average has been where this market lysed to retrace to an

traders at the new york stock exchange, cme group and let's get to john corps pee know right off the jon, what will you expect from this here? >> has the tone changed? the tone hasn't changed yet. we haven't seen panic, we're not getting a ton of sell orders. this market is kind of trading on its own at this point because investors don't really know exactly how strong these headlines are and what the true meaning is going to be in the next couple days. these headlines came out last night kind of quietly, and it took a little bit of time. i think it's going to take a little time for participants to adjust to this but, clearly, looking at the video you had on the lead-in, that's pretty powerful stuff, contract workers being pulled out. president obama was asked a question today about the use of drones in a situation like this. he kind of walked around that answer. this is clearly something that could escalate very far and really affect our overall markets. we've talked in the past about what's going to be the catalyst to derail this market. this might be that. i don't see a significant

let's go to andrew keane at the cme. good day. >> good day. another good day. like every time i come on the show market goes higher. i should come on show every day. >> i like it. >> we talk about it all the time. the market can go up in perpetuity in theory. the market is supply demand curve. buyers and sellers every day a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. they like jobs number. they continue higher. if we close on high of the day we'll get follow through on monday. i don't see a catalyst going forward right now at present time to make the stock market derail and go lower. i'm not a long-term investor. i would not want to be invested in market three to five years up here. short term the market is higher and continues to be long. melissa: doesn't make sense to fight the fed. you might as well stay in it and see what happens. thank you very much. have a great weekend. >> thank you. melissa: they're trying to woo the ladies, failing miserably like old college boyfriend. some men have no idea what women want. putting a stiletto sized hole in their bottom line of

." >> let's hop over to the cme group and check in with rick santelli. >> thank you. back their own stock, being a very important input into the level of stocks is now really growing to the point where everybody is aware of it. the only thing that many investors and watchers aren't aware of is the timeline for how long it will last or how it will play out. i reference another story by e.s. browning that was in "the wall street journal." on the screen. biggest gains. inside job. the companies purchasinging their own shares represent the single biggest category of stock buyers today. we have been on this for a while. it does not make it so your stock valuations aren't kosher because, of course if you are long and cash out, you go to the currency exchange, you will get greenbacks for your profit. the real issue is that trying to put the whole thing together to come up with a timeline, to make sure that your position gets the most out of the profit side is, again, before dynamics change and everything always changes. at this point we had professor john taylor on, there ar

plus, we're getting friday's jobs reports, so we have traders at the new york stock exchange, cme group the nymex. and i know, ben, i've left out first-time jobless claims on thursday, adp tomorrow, but what will you be focusing on? >> the last two, you're exactly right. adp will give us juice tomorrow, hopefully. the trading volume has been disastrous, we're still about 20% below the average for the quarter on a day like today. not great. another waste of a clean shirt and bus fare to get in, but we're going to keep an eye out for the ecb, hopefully they'll have something to say giving us some sort of concrete evidence that they really are going to do whatever it takes. and then, of course, our own jobless or unemployment number which will always move a market. and we'll keep an eye on that. right now the money, the big picture is money continues to sit on the sideline, and the mattresses of the bond market. [laughter] there are a few beneficiaries. there are some beneficiaries in the stock market, mostly the safe havens, the utility stocks, the oil driller stocks, the technology -- li

. >>> to the cme group. rick santelli? >> hi, carl.what, can't wait to see the amazon documentary. david faber does the best. i still watch walmart every time its on. listen, when it comes to the markets, i'm tough on the data. and i try to be objective with the data. today, we're going to err on the other side of it. one thing about the u.s. economy, it's underperforming, but its performance outside of the last quarter is still to the up side, and with regard to what's going on in the rest of the world, we know the relative argument that we're not doing our potential, but it certainly is, isn't what we see in europe, where the economy is underperforming plus. but, really, what is at the epicenter? you know? i have been pretty consistent i don't think we'll see 4%, even a 3.5%. i think growth will remain under 3%, but what would make that xwlang i think the u.s. economy has more right with it than wrong with it. how can we rationalize a 252 yield, record high equities and job creation even though there's issues, structural issues, with

new york stock exchange, cme group and the nymex.ossman, i think it's interesting, we'll go to you first because we see if there are some changes in the u.s. laws, so much for higher crude oil. >> i said that to you the last few times on here. everyone kept worrying, had that knee-jerk reaction, fine. we topped out about 107.50, and then reality comes in. there's no disruption, there's, you know, steady flow here, plenty of inventory, and the market under its own weight was going to work its way lower. i'll tell you this, you can look at it as the glass is still half full if you're a bull here because we did settle above a very critical number. about 105.40 in the crude oil is really where the pivot is, and that's where we go from a down move to an up move. so right now we're still in positive territory if you want to look at it that way. i still, and i said that on the last few times, we're on our way probably in the next two to three weeks without some new news down to about $102. there's no reason for this market to make a new hig