futures on the cme. charlie breaks it on the move to redemption. less than an hour to the closing bell. let's start the "countdown." liz: i told you we have multiple headlines breaking. i will pick them out one at a time. breaking news, it appears uber has crowned morgan stanley as the bank to lead its potential $120 billion ipo next year. this according to people familiar with the matter. what does that mean? morgan stanley beat out goldman sachs and jpmorgan for the coveted top job. yes, goldman and some of the other banks are expected to play a secondary or tertiary role. it is off the lows of the session certainly but up just a fraction at the moment for morgan stanley. >>> let me get to this headline. the state department deputy spokesperson robert palladino is holding a briefing at this moment, that's a live picture of it, and according to sources, the u.s. state department is now considering a travel advisory for china, meaning to caution u.s. citizens about travel to china following the arrest of

cme does a great job. we are seeing not only the volume pick up but also the volatility. the veracity of the moves has led to that volatility. liz: can i interrupt, though? we are still talking around 20 for the volatility level which historically is rather calm. >> it is, if you are measuring it in the vix. if you are looking at oil future products and other products here at the cme, that volatility is really up at the upper quarter, upper third of the charts of where it is. yes, overall market volatility is hovering 20%, 21%, which historically, that is not a high level. but what we have seen obviously over the last two, three, four years, that is very, very extended at this point. now, can we go higher, yes. but what's really interesting is over the last couple weeks with every drawdown we have seen across the marketplace, every little selloff, we are actually seeing the vix not rise quite as much. tells me one of two things. either a, the marketplace retail is getting more complacent and used to it or b, the underpinnings to the economy, underpinnings to the marketpla

jeff flock is tracking all of the action from the floor of the cme.ou make of this comeback today, this bounceback for oil? what are traders saying about it? reporter: yeah. you know the selloff on monday was huge, not as big as this runup, though. by the way, that's you up on the board, the big board at the cme. that's me, too. there you go. quiet, fairly quiet on most of the floor but as you point out, oil, huge and traders are saying that was an oversold market on monday and now has risen even more than it declined on monday. and perhaps there is a buying opportunity out there for the oil stocks which as you know, have been really beaten down this year. take a look at a couple of them. exxonmobil, for example, up today, i think my figures say about 2.7%. high for the year was $89. trading around $67 today. chevron got as high as $133, now trading just over $100. that was up big, about 4% today as well. bp got as high as $47, 52-week high. $37, closer to that now. that's up a couple percent today, too, so maybe some big opportunities there. speaking

the cme group., phil flynn. jeff, i got to start with you right now at the cme. tell me, what's the mood down there right now and what are traders telling you regarding this upswing we are seeing just within the last hour? reporter: i heard you earlier say traders were saying they had no idea what the heck was going on, and reasons, and people are shaking their heads here. i'm looking at a guy right now, i was just talking to, who has been on our air multiple times, he's just shaking his head. he said this market is completely divorced from any kind of fundamentals. both the stock market as well as oil, has nothing to do with supply and demand, nothing to do with economic strength or weakness underlying the economy. it has all to do with fear and expectations. right now, maybe there is just a lot to be fearful about with the administration and other things going on around the world but it's not about fundamentals at all. kristina: i feel like you just made it really difficult for me to ask our two o

what is everybody making at the cme of this yield inversion in the curve?lot of talk about the curve inversion. the fed has been saying that when everyone is watching the fed more -- move toward inversion, the fed was making comments like this is different this time. it did not mean the same things it didn't the past. now that we are inverting at the front end of the curve, the two-year, five-year portion of now that we have inverted the fed will start taking a look at it, maybe not think of looking at at this time. the pot that is inverted is not the part the fed ted's to look at for disgusting weather there is a recession down the road. that is the three-month 10 year. however, they will still be taking notice of it. frequently in the past, when we saw two sides invert, it took from three months to nine months to see the 10 year invert. we could still be a ways off, but even that tends to indicated recession not for at least four quarters. ?onnie: what changed the unemployment is at 3.7% and we are looking for a healthy jobs report friday and the manufact

that is ira epstein out of cme. happy holidays to all of you at cme. get a quick check of markets. the s&p 500 still down about a half a percent. mattel 4% lower -- 5.5%, mattel down 4% lower. most stocks in the dow are lower. his losses,s paring down about 3/10 of 1%. the big news in the last hour, 14thsa may has set jittery -- has set january 14 as the vote for the brexit deal. vonnie: 30 minutes left for the close. i'm vonnie quinn. this is "the european close." ♪ here are the top stories we are covering from around the world. a cio is the guest on markets. plummeting after a gloomy warning. countdown to shut down. what a partial government shutdown could mean for the market. eye on theresaan may in parliament. european markets are having an impact on the major indices. all the indices across continental europe lower as well as the ftse 100. down 1.1%. theresa may saying there will be a parliamentary vote the week of january 14, which is almost

jeff on the floor of the cme. jeff? >> one trader on the floor of the cme in chicago the reason for this? you talk about the president's tweets. the president is in iraq all day. he wasn't tweeting. took all the uncertainty out of the market. that's why we're up. one man's opinion. don't shoot the messenger. in the after-hours we're up farther, percent 1/2 in the after-hours. we closed 46.22 today. as you report, blake that is 8.6% to the upside. we're now at 46.79 in the after-hours. we were a little higher a little while ago. so the rally continues. this after monday we were down 6.8%. so we made it all back and more. i guess the only potential negative in all of this would be that we have now had 77 straight days of gasoline price declines? we are now at $2.31 average gal of regular in the u.s. that is down five cents from last week, down, well, see if i can do the math on that, 24 cents from last month. we'll break that. the oil producers would like that. guys that drive cars, maybe not so much. quite a day at the c

tony braxton because the twitter verse is voting against his pitch for cme.ed for the pitch. >> i thought he was getting celine he was close to deon tonight ride to victory. >> time for final trade. pete. >> i go with target oversold, a great opportunity. giddyup. >> tim. >> it was not a warwick it was a dion home depot gets done. >> you like what bob had to say. >> i'm in the chasing defensive names like coke. >> not chasing guy. >> one less bell to answer, deon warwick. go with me >> way to go, brian. on worldwide exchange tomorrow morninatg 5:0 >>> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you and put it in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer what the heck happened today

we have phil flynn at the cme, chris robertson, cme as well and peter tuchman. i want to start with you right now. all day on fox business there have been people, experts, negotiating about whether there's been -- we have hit the bottom. some are saying no, there's further lows to go. do you believe that this volatility means that we have actually hit a bottom, or there's still further move to go down? >> are you talking to me? kristina: go, pete. nice to see you, by the way. >> i'm not really sure we can make a judgment on what's going to happen going forward from this last week. i think everyone's positioning themselves at the end of the year. we have had a crazy volatile week, month and last couple of months. to make a judgment what's going to go forward, whether this is the bottom, whether there's any more pain coming up, it's really hard to gauge. a lot goes on in the last few days of a normal year, let alone the most volatile year we have ever seen. kristina: i agree. i agree it's difficult to predict what's happening. what's missing right now, wouldn't th

tim anderson, phil flynn back at the cme, alan nuckman at the cme.e bring in your voice. what are you seeing that would indicate that maybe the selloff, you always say the rally has legs. does the selloff have longer legs that follow through on thursday, or will the pause tomorrow during the ceremony for the funeral of president bush 41, will that sort of give a pause for a brief reprieve? >> if it's up to me, i think we're going to get a reprieve, i really do. i'm looking at some of the order imbalances that are coming in. we are seeing as many buy side orders coming in as sell side orders, and you know, when we talk about the flight to quality in the bond, we are seeing the long part of the yield curve move up but part of that is from long-term imbalances. we have seen the long end of the yield curve be low for a long period of time and as far as the flight to quality, we are seeing some of that today, but it's not like a big surge for one day. usually you will see that on the day if the market's really going to crash, you will see that really acce

where larrythe cme joins us. what is the dollar saying?dex or a 96.5. >> backpedaling a little bit. saying the sentiment is looking more long-term, balance of payment issues, fiscal issues, end of cycle issues. the dollar drag. nothing else outside the dollar that is that compelling at this point. hard to get excited about the euro. the british pound looks cheap versus the euro. high and current these have been well, australian dollar. u.s. dollar going forward will be tough because long-term issues are centerstage. vonnie: what are people saying at the cme if the fed increases rates? maybe shovels the language a little bit in the statement so it is considered more dovish? >> i think people are feeling that not all dovish hikes are the same. that is what they are expecting. when you consider the tightening of financial conditions, you cannot argue against that. the brittleness of the global equity market. i think it will be -- a matter what happens today, it will be hard to get a 10 year yield above 3%. we will continue to see lower for lo

let's go to paul, who joins us from the cme. what is the market reacting to their?e the crosscurrents in play today. .e have seen big action we have the trade story related to huawei. we have opec. put it all together for me. what are people talking about down there? paul: it is all about the trade picture. we thought walking into this week, after the weekend, and the dinner between xi and trump, that things were on great footing. we saw the markets up 400 points. it has been a slide ever since. we are hearing both sides moving away from the collegial environment we thought we saw after the dinner on sunday. now, we are back not even at square one, but maybe point zero as far as trade talks between the united states and china. that has investors in a twist right now. guy: the market is pricing out the fed at the moment. is that an overreaction, in your view? paul: i am not sure it is. i think we will get the december hike. after that, we are not sure. we are seeing weaker economic data. survey data continues to be hard, but factory orders, durable goods coming in a

ted joining us from the cme on the price of crude. let's turn backto the tesla story.e hour. today maybe some stability being put in. we have a deal effectively done a few weeks back and now we have two prominent business veterans joining the board at tesla. bring to theison show, larry ellison of oracle? >> you know him well. he is a big name and obviously someone who has been controversial and this known to be a very outspoken executive. he does identify a lot with elon musk. sort of bootstraps entrepreneur, built up an empire in silicon valley, and to give him credit, he is an experienced board member in the technology world. he was on the apple board for a lot of years so he has seen tiffany's go up and down and knows how to supervise them. guy: what does kathleen wilson-thompson bring? the company has had issues and a nevis elon musk. crayton: bringing somebody experienced in human resources not a bad move. tesla has had a lot of turnover in the executive ranks, this year especially, and has been criticized for having a lack of management structure.really a lot of

leadershiparkets for greater group is of the cme. we have oil.t the dollar -- it is weakening on the sterling strength. what is the thinking down there at the cme? is the strength sustainable? >> yeah, so let's start with the dollar. cpi was unchanged largely due to gas prices. drag, no endues to in sight, so that offers the dollar as a safe haven. equity market uncertainty is helping that support as well. the worry of demand destruction is bringing more interest into the dollar. we have a less aggressive tone for rising interest rates. i could limit it. we are likely going to see higher interest rates nonetheless. government shutdown adding a little bit of support. we will see you contract highs likely in the dollar. i'm not selling that strength. i think that is likely to continue. again, i think we are going to get through it. obvious target -- 100 even. cap a little bit more resistance. i am looking for support on the brake if we were to get one. longer-term buy in my opinion. vonnie: thank you for joining. guy: time for the stock of the hour

the cme, intermittently caused having lost $3 trillion of value since september.me in cording to invest -- according to investec. the pricing for growth? that is the debate over the next 3.5 hours from dubai, tokyo and vienna. let's get to debra mao with first word headlines. good day. debra: china's embassy in ottawa has asked canada to free huawei cfo meng wanzhou, who was arrested in vancouver over the weekend. the u.s. is seeking her extradition in connection with potential sanctions violations in iran. a bail hearing is set for friday. the company says they are not aware of any wrongdoing by meng. in april, the justice department began investigating whether huawei sold equipment to iran despite sanctions. saudi arabia and analyze are recommending a curb on oil production, rebuffing a tweet from president trump to keep taps open. secured russian backing for six months of reduced output from january, although specific cuts were not discussed. a final deal could see one million barrels a day removed from the market. u.k. prime minister theresa may is said to be

this caused the cme to pause trading at a moment. concerned there is a fat finger. got? matt: first of all, that is a great chart. it is not really a fat finger if it is an algorithm and i bet algorithmic trading makes up more than half of u.s. futures trading. what i've got is an interesting fallout -- piece of fallout from that. as investors get spooks, they buy things like german bunds, which are yielding 25 basis points. chartan stocks, this shows are yielding more than 3.7% more than german bunds. gettingthe yield we are from stocks, climbing to a high we haven't seen over bunds in two years. anna: i will go with dani. she wins. this is bloomberg. ♪ . . cfo arrestedwei's in vancouver. china reacts seriously and fears it could impact the trade war. opec is on the verge of a production cut, and we will get the latest from vienna. brexit on the horizon. why theresa may's crucial vote nears. what it is for the british economy. >> i think the reality is instability will push this economy into much lower growth. that is just the reality. ♪

chris, at the cme. teddy, i want to begin with you. you have been through a lot of government shutdowns, you have been through a lot of market turmoil, but have you seen so much volatility happening because of politics? >> well, the very short answer is uncertainty breeds volatility. lauren: yeah. >> i hate to answer your question with a cliche, but clearly, there is so much uncertainty out there now, whether it's politics of washington, geopolitics, tariffs, the fed, pick your poison. i don't think it really matters. but collectively, it's created a very negative backdrop for stocks simply because there is so much uncertainty. lauren: so much of it came this week, this week alone. the federal reserve hiked interest rates, an abrupt pull-out of our troops in syria, mattis is out as defense secretary, and we have the countdown to the potential shutdown. that's a lot in one week for anybody. >> well, it sure is, but you know, we can't really -- we don't have the time to go into each item, but clearly, as far as the fed, the fed will alwa

phil flynn live at the cme. phil? >> i'll tell you, blake, it was another day where the oil market actually turned higher in optimism about what is going on with the stock market. as soon as the stock market stops getting pounded, all of sudden oil looks like a much better buy. we saw a lot of energy stocks come back as well. i don't want to say all the risk aversion is gone today. if you look, for example, the bond yields, going back down to session lows right now. the gold prices were lower a little bit earlier are back up. there is still a little concern going not weekend what may happen that will impact oil next week. next week there will be a lot of things happening with oil we have to really keep an eye on. we'll watch of course, word out of opec. next week of course, is the week, new year's day, is when the opec production cuts will go into play. we'll watch the oil flows out of those opec countries to see how well they will be complying with those cuts. the other thing of course, you will have going into the n

the cme were forced to intermittently pause trading. thursday's ugly opening? bring in the head of european investment at ubs world management with us now. some are looking for signals of an earnings recession. running out of stimulus, and a paring back on revenue from u.s. companies next year. the s&p is showing a death crawl. are you sure this level of gloom -- is it really that necessary to rerate that aggressively on stocks? we are worried about the slowdown, but we don't see a recession. if you look at the market reaction, it really looks like the market is telling us that we are about to go into recession and maybe this is the end of the cycle. if you look around the world, the u.s. would slow down a bit, europe would slow down a bit. we still expect 2.6% in 2019. all of the signals that precede a recession, we just don't see it. employment is still dropping in the u.s., wage growth is there. key to that, there is no inflation running away. it is just below their target. there is no huge pressure. we don't see that agency in the fed to aggressively increa

seeing his lawyer, now a convicted felon, acknowledge that the president was complicit in a federal cmeink he is in jeopardy for it. yoare starting to see the pressure take its toll on the president, and he knows he is in jeopardy for it. it is not believable to say that he didn't know. laura: the president is saying that in effect michael cohen waa d lawyer and he never directed him to do anything andh atever cohen did, he did by himself.ha is tt a credible defense? >> no.e there ople who believe we never landed on the moon. that is just not a credible argument. it is an incredible position for the president to take, especially given his hands-on style we have seen from the beginning of his administration. nothing has ppened in the white house and nothing happens presumably in the trump administration or the trirp business ewhere he wasn't directly involved. we have a tape recording, of all things, where the president is on the tape talking about the money transfer. to say he didn't know is not credible. laura: the fact that also this week a tabloid publisher has admitted to paying off

when you look at the s&p's at the cma, they had been under , they had- at the cme been under pressureabout levels. 51.65 right now. what about the 50 line? joe: 50 is the line in the sand right now. we had great numbers out of china with the tariffs being released. the autos, you have the saudis saying they cut supply to the u.s.. -- to the u.s. 50 is that mark. now that we have broken that 51.65, even though we have all of these -- to the upside, they that levelging to and you have to watch that area. guy: joe, thank you for your time. vonnie? vonnie: it is time for our stock of the hour. shares of -- are rising -- shares of highest are rising -- years of hyatt are rising -- shares of hyatt are rising. taylor: you can see the shares are rising, so certainly from evaluation perspective, investors are happy, and it is their biggest purchase. this purchase is about $2.6 billion and it is their way to diversifying into the luxury goods space, giving them restaurants, especially as customers seek more trips and experiences, just versus a handbag. this will help them diversify into the lux

. >> reporter: residents emerged from their homes to realize they were in the cme scene.hell casings, shattered windows d bullet holes illustrate how close they were. >> we had to come out of our building, go to the mailbox for this stuff to happen. it doesn't have anything to do with us >> reporter: washington police gathered evidence, canvassedor witnesses. with a lifetime spent in southeast, she's at her wi ' end. >> i don't know what to say right now. timeporter: the lon residents aren't ready to surnltd their safety or way of life just yet. she said this may be what's tppening now but it doesn't have to stayt way. >> put the guns in the trash can and go back to get an education. >> reporter: now again, we do not have a description of the gunman involved in the thcase. e are surveillance cameras in the parking lot but we don't know if they work poice are asking anyone with information to come forward. policee h not yet identified witnesses. >>> and now a look at thelo oun county fire captain who was arrested in a fire crash. captain brandon billingsley was involved in

says -- fell by over 800,000 barrels last week. 31.35.ading at 61, 20 5 --g at joins us now from the cmelk about brent. says that the opera -- the opec plus agreement effectively puts a flaw on the price of oil at $60 a barrel brent. do you believe that? >> i think so. there is also some supply disruptions in venezuela and iran as well. perhaps that is the case and we have a decent spread here. brent, eightsix to dollars, that is pretty high considering where prices have come. i think the real question is demand, not so much supply. guy: one thing we should talk about and i'm sure you are talking about it down there is the structure of the volatility market and the futures market. what are we learning right now? >> it is an interesting dynamic because typically the futures curve is higher but flatter. i read in one of your bloomberg it's except in -- it is acceptance of volatility. elevated slightly but they don't look for any spike going forward. premiummma for me was which are money calls at a two-year low and generally people pay out for protection during those times and they haven't.

the first event starts at 10:00 this morning and held at the phillip's temple cme church. and there is a toy give away this afternoon at oakland's love temple missionary baptist church on birch street. >>> today is one of the busiest shopping days of the holiday season. the last saturday before christmas has become known as super saturday. it is a big day for last minute holiday shopping deals and procrastinators. they hope to draw in the shoppers by staying open longer. khol's will stay around the clock till 6:00 p.m. on christmas eve. the national retail federation said about 134 million people plan to take advantage of super saturday sales and extended store hours. >>> home for the holidays has special meeting for people from the santa rosa coffee park neighborhood. they were devastated by the north bay wildfires last year. more people will be spending the first holiday back in their new homes this year. >> reporter: chris is hanging curtains and stockings this christmas season. but no complaints about the chores setting up a brand-new house. his home on hopper avenue i

he joins us from the cme. has this move got legs?meeting is coming up. >> we need to see inventories to get firm fitting -- footing. the focus will be opec on thursday. if they cut less than one million barrels, the market will probably sell off. we need to see 1.3 million or higher of a cut to get stable legs. and we need to see inventories draw down. it has been 10 straight weeks where we have been building inventories domestically and the market cannot find footing with that being a major reason. guy: we are seeing this rally in soybeans in the united states. soy dropped off today. crush -- soyword crush margin which is important for chinese is down. the tariffs are still in place. the chinese tariffs on u.s. soybeans. rally as a result of what we saw over the weekend? >> this gives you a timeframe. over the next 90 days, something could happen. there is still a tear fund soybean imports into china. that is a problem. that is why markets are lower. of headwind and resistance. i would be surprised to see the market rip through that

. >> bob pisani, thank you rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago good morning to you, rick. >> carl, you know stock is up so strong, it gives suc credence to the counter trend on tuesday. traders are cognizant of the fact that we are going against the grain here in a bit. look at the one-week of two-year note yield and consider the fact that they have really slipped. they are hovering the zone that we have not seen about the first week in september, if you open up the chart up for 10-yr, let's go back to the 6th of december on this intraday you can see how many times intraday that we touched the 282 level. that's a significant area and traders are highly cognizant of that if you open the 10-yr chart up in november, you can see it has been a fade in the long end. it has been in fade in every market since the last meeting except for the next one, the dollar index dollar index is highly sideways here and it is a good level even though it is melting a little bit. if you look at the last chart that it is since the last fed mo meeting, you can see what i am speaking of. as we get rea

2019 we are at the highs of the day >> back to you >> let's go to chicago with rick santelli at the cmeup in chicago. good morning, rick >> good morning sara well, treasury yield seems to have this pattern. they act pretty well and they don't move a lot, cumulatively, it certainly adds up twos are up one. if you look at july of this year's start, should we close here, the lowest levels that we have seen is 9th or 10th of july christmas eve, we are up just a bit. let's look at the 10-yr, that gives you the breath of how much we in verse from that second top of 324 on down any single day there has been a few or double digit moves to the downside 10 or 11 base points. it has been much smaller bites the big argument is the treasury complex is more responsive to the weakness in equities and not getting us a glimpse of the economy. i think we can safely say that has changed. there is definitely a nervousness regarding the outlook in both domestic and global affairs of the economy. yes, we have seen a sturdy market the etfs is a little crazier. this one is the investment grade and it bounced a

let's get to rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. we are consolidating off of lower yields. yields we really haven't seen since basically the end of august. however, having said that, we are still at a mode where many traders are paying very close attention to what is going on overseas. if you look at a february chart of our tens you can see there is plenty of action for the beginning and mid part of the year. that's right about at the levels we held. now, as you switch to a one week of bunds there isn't a lot on the one-week chart which speaks volumes. the rates are in the mid 20s. if you look at bunds from june 2019 which is kind of the zone we are trading in, the market must have not expected a lot different. that was dovish with respect to how everybody reacted to mario draghi thus far. the market isn't shocking but i don't think it shocked the market. if you look at the intraday, no doubt there is volatility. open the chart up also hovering in a range from june of 2017. like the dollar index, the last five or six weeks really ha

the bond pits, that's where we find rick santelli at the cme group. >> good morning.ok at the board, all maturities are up basically one basis point. fives are unchanged. the point is as you look at a year to date chart of two-year note yields, we've come down a lot. but even as we sit at 2.52, which is close to unchanged, we are up 65 basis points we settle at 1.88. if you look at a two-day of tens, you can clearly see we've been toying with 2.71. we settle at 2.72, these are levels we haven't closed at since february a year to date chart, here we hover at 2.73. we're now up 32 basis points we settled, as you see on the year to date chart, around 2.41. well off we've given up a lot of ground in a very short period of time we've even lost the midpoint closing yield of the year, which is around 2.81, hovering about seven, eight basis points lower than that. we're really going out, even though we're higher on all maturities, at a level that very few analysts would have suspected, especially after the jolting january we had do keep in mind, the low yield of the year was

rick santelli of the cme >>> as we head to break, look at the 20 top performing stocks >>> today's fedn on interest rate in about four hours from now, we're counting you down and we will bring you live coverage of fed chairman powell's news conference, as jim said, very important perhaps the most important moment of the year up next we have stop trading with jim >>> welcome back let's get a quick stop trading with jim where are you going? >> drug companies all over the place. allergen there's a european recall of a -- some breast implants because of a rare form of cancer allergan disagrees, that's why the stock is down. it's also hurting their bonds. stock is a disaster. >> what do you have on "mad" tonight? >> i have the big names. i have dave ricks. he's great in indianapolis other than frank wright. the amazing coach of the indianapolis colts >> great show. >> by the way, andrew luck, he actually went to class did quite well >>> coming up, former medtronics ceo bill george. we'll talk to him about the glaxosmithkline pfizer joint venture. the future of technology investing lies beyo

let's get to the cme group in chicago, check in with rick santelli for santelli exchange rick >> i'dcome my guest. thanks for joining me today. let's get right into it. last week, a couple of comments either from the vice chairman or the chairman, jay powell, really give the dollar a bit of a setback as potential aggressive tightening in 2019 might not materialize which dove tails with most sources i talked to. the second issue what's going on with china and the yuan with respect to the dollar. two big cross areas for foreign exchange explain the outcomes for us, mark. >> sure. i think last week the fed set up the possibility of a pause after the next rate hike in december and it's looking more likely we'll have a terminal fed funds rate between 2.5 and 3 at the most what's happened is we've had continued weakness in housing and then with the big selloff in oil in november you'll get a softening in energy investment as well and housing and energy investment is 10% of 2 economy so that takes down the upside possibility for 2019 so then we look at what happened over the weekend, which

we're going to dig right in with scott shellady who's joining us from the cme.st get straight to it, the fact that mnuchin called all of these bank ceos, isn't that just psyching investors out? >> yeah, you know what? that was probably not a good idea. i know why he did it, but when you overly assure people, i don't like it. the markets are looking for a reason to sell off, and they're looking for a reason to bolster them, and until we get out of the psyche, we have people want to sell the market no matter what on good news. we need to let this go through the markets, and i think we're getting there. we're starting to reach these lows, and the markets are oversold, but we're going to have to have that investor psyche get changed, but i think they dropped the ball. >> how do you change it though, scott, is the question. did he want the banks to tell them, oh, there is a problem. wall street keeps saying there is a problem. we see it too. what did he expect the banks to tell him? >> exactly right, he already knew the answer, and that's what you're supposed to do i

cme has launched futures this year and a number of others. are more participants than ever before. emily: hunter horsley, the bitwise ceo, thank you so much. coming up, protecting the world from harmful ai. smith onview with brad faulty facial recognition is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast business built the nation's largest gig-speed network. then went beyond. beyond chasing down network problems. to knowing when and where there's an issue. beyond network complexity. to a zero-touch, one-box world. optimizing performance and budget. beyond having questions. to getting answers. "activecore, how's my network?" "all sites are green." all of which helps you do more than your customers thought possible. comcast business. beyond fast. emily: this is "bloomberg technology." i'm emily chang in san francisco. a.i. to be regulated. the facial recognition genie is just emerging from the bottle unless we act. we risk finding out five years real that facial recognition has .pread in ways that exacerbate we spoke with smith about why he is taking on th

. >>> let's get to the cme and rick santelli for the santelli exchange. >> good morning. thank you.'s a lot of great discussions on our channel one of the discussions has been why is the market getting so nervous? it didn't seem to have a problem when all of the plans of the fed in terms of a somewhat automatic pilot runoff of the balance sheet, for example, the announcement of that, and how it was pencilled in, brought through various communications and statements of previous meetings the market didn't seem to mind but i can remember in 2012, 13, 14, many discussions we had here that quantitative easing, global liquidity and the rise of the stock market, liquidity from central banks grew, so did the price of many sectors, especially the equity sector and it was thought and i voiced it many times along with others, yra harris comes to mind, there would be the other side of the mountain nobody seemed to mind then either all of the talk on ultimate disruption when quantitative easing turned the corner reached that peak from adding to not adding none of these things when voiced seem to

abc 7 news watt in berkeley at phillips temple cme crutch for their 30th annual chips for kids events. officers have been collecting toys every december for three decades to give them away to children whose families may not otherwise have funds for the holidays. >> it's a good opportunity not only for her to receive some gifts but also to appreciate those people who don't have people or parents that give them -- buy them gifts. >> we're just lucky to be here and seeing kids' faces, smile and have a good time. >> the chp also handed out toys to kids at love temple baptist church in east oakland. >>> jolly old st. nick had a hand in brightening the holidays for some military families. abc 7 news was at moffett field today where the nfl amni association and the wine country marines distributed hundreds of toys to the children of service people. >> we had such an outpouring. once it's out there, the community responded so generous wil i. just as -- yeah, it was crazy, and we have an overflow of toys. >> volunteers say the toys can make a big difference, especially for families who have lo

cme has launched futures this year and a number of others. more participants than ever before. emily: hunter horsley, the bitwise ceo, thank you so much. coming up, protecting the world from harmful ai. our interview with brad smith on faulty facial recognition is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ emily: this is "bloomberg technology." i'm emily chang in san francisco. brad smith of microsoft wants -- facial recognition to be regulated. he says the facial recognition genie is just emerging from the bottle unless we act. we risk finding out in five years that facial recognition has spread in ways that exacerbates things. we spoke with smith about why he is taking on the issue. brad: we decided to take on the issue of facial recognition for two reasons. first, it was important to employees. they were asking questions. we were hearing the same questions from customers and civil liberties groups. second, once we thought more about it, we came to a clear conclusion and the conclusion was that this technology is very promising. it's going to improve the

. >> as for the stock, back to levels of last tuesday, despite the jump today >>> let's get to the cmege. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. before i get into it, a disclaimer this spot contains graphic financial information. for those of you on the squeamish side, be careful we talk about hard brexit. it could be a rough time in the short term for the uk. but i tell you what, hard brexit beats doing european hard time mario draghi and all of the information out of the ecb today, i can only think of one thing, that it is illogical to me i'm not saying what they're supposed to do because i think there's no good way out of this. i guess that's the point that the ecb is basically solidifying current conditions as permanent conditions in my opinion. i just don't see how they can extricate themselves truly if you look at just italy alone, think about all of the paper being held at a price and yield that certainly doesn't reflect risk, how long can this containment field go on? what is the end game here? mario draghi entered october of 11, term ends october of '19 think about that th

they been flooding the market ahead of that cut, let's bring in fill flynn, price futures group at cmeresting moves by the saudis, phil, good morning. phil: good morning, you bet they have, they were flooding the oil market ahead of opec meeting and that was message to opec members, if i want production cut you better cut on board because we still have the ability to flood the market but they have definitely reversed that initial surge in production and we are hearing from tanker tracker firms across the globe that the oil exports out of saudi arabia have basically dropped almost zero, zero, so they are serious about this, they want to send a message to donald trump that, hey, you know what, when you -- when we raise production to help you out in iran sanctions it never happened, you pull that back from us, we will get each. >> look, average output for iranians right now is a little more than 1 million-barrels a day but that's a really new low for the iranians and you mentioned donald trump, remember when he tweeted back in december 5th about opec and trying to pressure them, here is w

. >>> let's get to the cme group and rick santelli. >> hi again, carl.ore we get to the meat of the matter, i would like to show a chart going back to 6th 6th of r note yields. why is it so important treasury is getting down, testing this 2.82% level this is the fourth occasion we've spent some time down there even though the low yield close is a couple basis points higher than that. it's significant in so many ways, midpoint of the 2018 closing yield range for ten year also important when we made the first of the two double tops right below 3.25%, the last spot that we paused before the market basically rose very efficiently was a 2.81% yield close. a lot of reasons to pay attention. we all talk about the fed's first day of the two-day fed meeting tomorrow most likely resulting in a rate hike, but there's been a big reversal of policy and really in many ways it started in early october i know many pegged the, i believe, october 3rd comments of fed chairman jay powell and the distance between where we are and neutral but maybe it was just the context whe

only cme closing unchanged. still with us is darrell. when you look at the sectors, you like financials because you see value there. >> you have a lot of financials trading below book value which, when you get to that value, and less you are entering an immediate recessionary environment, it is a great entry point. in 2019, thetwo best value plays are industrials and financials. as long as you get the fed not making a policy mistake and positive progress on trade, both of those risk premiums should shrink, pushing the stock price higher. joe: let's dive into the challenge for the fed. we have seen market volatility, but the data seems like it is fine. i think the fed does not want to look like they are beholden to financial markets. how do they avoid mistakes? that would be the one threat to your bank stocks. darrell: i think there is a munition for the fed to soften the language, stance or perhaps take a more dovish stance. you have to look at some of the high degree cyclicals we are talking about. .omebuilders are in market autos are i

we're about ten away we'll see you in a few >> let's get to the cme group and rick santelli. >> reporterk you, carl before i get into the exchange i would like to throw up a chart starting last week for ten-year note deals the ten-year note yields as you look at that chart have been stopping in the low 280s good support there we want to pay close attention how quickly it may get down there. it's unchanged at 285 or 286 if you could put a dot, a closing only chart if you're an equity trader instead of the open high/low close, i think most people would probably be happier. they would be able to adhere to their strategy better. why? volatility is a tough thing to deal with. when volatility picks up we'll hear stories and that's a good thing. i would question at this point this industry is one of the more adaptive industries and it i adapted. it's turned into pretty much machines and algos, complex strategies and all that is marginalizing markets. i don't mean making them smaller. i have a friend trading a small funneled every time we get big volatility, he picks up the phone and tells me, m

vonnie: alan, thank you for joining us from the cme with futures in focus. watch the opec briefing happening right now on your bloomberg. type in "live go." a big announcement from the president's administration today. of course, we have the former bush attorney general, barr, who will succeed sessions. heather now ours is moving to the united nations. give us the significance of these two promotions if you like. >> looks like the president is getting people into position at the department of justice and at who he who he likes, who are close to him, who he thinks that will be may be more loyal than the people they are replacing. william barr will replace jeff sessions at the justice department. barr has written favorably from trump's perspective on a number of significant issues. he wrote in "the washington post" that james comey was right to reinvestigate hillary clinton's enough before the election i 2016. he also wrote that donald trump was right to fire james comey and sally yates right after he took office. this is a guy who looks like he is right in li

phil flynn at cme and our own hillary vaughn is at the white house. we'll start with you, hillary. reporter: good afternoon. president trump really declaring a 90-day trade truce with china during a heart to heart at g20 in argentina, with chinese president xi xinping. the trading partners agreed essentially to relationship reset. top white house economic advisor larry kudlow saying this at the white house lawn just moments ago. >> ambassador lighthizer will be in charge of shall we say enforcement, monitoring and timetables. there is nobody better than him in the business and i'm sure he will keep, try to keep china on track. they literally can start today. president trump made very clear he is our lead negotiator. nothing will happen without president trump -- president trump by the way has been very involved in the details of this. reporter: kudlow saying he is cautiously optimistic and really saying that a lot of the push for this actually came from president xi saying saying thate engaged a level of detail that was unusual and he was the one who made the pitch to really come t

see you in a bit >>> let's get to the cme group for the santelli exchange.. >> good morning, carl. today i want to talk about fundamental changes in the market but before we get there, just want to say a word about today's conference board consumer confidence number. this is a chart of the numbers going back to 1967 in which my database includes. what i would like to point out is reading was 128.1 previous, we had five readings in a row, 130and above you could see them all right about there. the point is in this long chart we could see this is the stratosphere of the levels, truly is i'm not saying markets can't reverse and all of this can change, but i will tell you this is a forward real time data point with regard to the calendar and since much of the volatility really started in october, it is hard for me to believe the reversal, probably had to do with market volatility the point i am making, lofty by comparison let's get to the matter at hand. when we talk about momentum and volatility, momentum, we're in football playoff season soon bears are part of

meantime, over to cme in chicago.rick. >> thank you well, what's going to be the 20th anniversary tomorrow along with welcoming in 2019 happy birthday to the euro currency. january 1st, 1999. i remember it well it made its official first day around 118 since then, the high has been a whisker under 160. that was the year the crisis early '08 and the low just under 83 and that was october of 2000, i believe, it was october 2000 or there b abouts. so the mid price is around 121 the reason i bring that up, i always find that big anniversaries and midpoints have technical significance, but here's the issue today as we get ready to mark the 20th year, let's check out what's been going on. in my opinion, the main driver to pay attention to is both hesitation and integration on hesitation, it isn't only the ecb, but the ec brb as a central bank that really wants to normalize, but for whatever reason, they seem to be doing it at just about the worse time they could have decided on as global economics are slowing it's going to

meantime, let's get over to the cme and rick santelli for the santelli exchange. >> good morning andou, a couple of things before we get into the heart of the piece. many have said -- especially in lieu of the fed meeting, stocks are a forward-looking mechanism. forward-pricing mechanism to get a glimpse of the forward growth what the markets anticipate. and it all sounds great and i think at various times in the rear-view mirror it used to work here's my issue -- everybody seems to recognize that manipulation for policy in the fixed income, the sovereign debt market, the corporate debt market, that has distortions and we question the signals. many debate what the inverted curve means. but we never take that over to the stock side the stock market was the epicenter of what the central banks wanted to hold most artificially high, by putting many investors in more risky assets don't go in money markets, don't go in conservative investments stocks, corporate securities, you know, the riskier stuff. so why should they be surprised that it's gotten so -- antsy in face of the reversal of p

than 9% this year but let's get to the floor show and our traders at the new york stock exchange and cme. we will talk about sort of the wild world of stocks at the moment, what you see as we bump up closer to the end of the year. sarge, to you first. >> all right. well, take at look at the transports. take a look at the russell. this portends towards growth. now, you got to roll backwards, earlier this morning, in switzerland, what does thomas jordan say? he says he sees down side risks to the global economy. he gets a little nervous on inflation. three or four hours later, mario dreiden, same thing, down side risk to the economy. this is a real problem. brexit, germany, japan in outright contraction, serious contraction at that and our own atlanta fed lowering the forward-looking gdp to 2.4% now. we have some issues. all the stocks right now look very nicely valued but the forward looking projections might not be there for us to enjoy come three months, six months. i think we have some issues. what investors can do, i know they want to ask, they got to buy these dividend stocks. you ca

charge of his personal detail as well as his personal aides later this morning let's get over to the cmeroup and rick santelli for the santelli exchange. >>> good morning thank you, carl. channel check, something important at cnbc, try to monitor in various space what the most important events are for investors to pay attention to but how do you know if you're monitoring treasuries with the yield curve inversion process that you are tuned to the correct channel. consider, buyers on the yield curve are a huge factor moving yields around. why take yield curve risk. a lot of buying is in the short, that should the short end. inflation, we're not done with inflation but are we peaking for this cycle many believe we are. when you add in what's going on with china and a breakthrough, at least restraint on tariffs pushing it down the road to get a more comprehensive plan, many believe could be disinflationary. as far as the global and domestic economies, our economy seems to be doing well many look at this inverse and say, aha it's because growth is slowing if it was that obvious would the fed

. >> comes out cme. >> back here 5:00, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >>> my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it, "mad money" starts now >>> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to preserve some capital. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach, call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer if you're buying stocks, it's okay you just need to know you're fighting the fed, okay and that's not a fight many people can win it's as simple as that down plunging, down 500 like i said it would be the s&p plummeting 1.5%, nasdaq nose diving 2.17%. fed chairman jay powell doesn't care about appeasing investors in the stock market. he doesn't think it's his job. i get that he wants to slow down the economy so we can avoid a lot of inflation. i sat there like many of you and listened to how he talked in the press conference he made it crystal clear we need more rate hikes, at least two more that's what he said. there are a lot of mistakes in judgment about what

yesterday, we were in berkeley at phillips temple cme church for the annual event. they've collected toys for the past three decades to give them away to children whose families otherwise don't have funds for the holidays. >> it's a good opportunity not only for her to give some gifts and also to appreciate the people who don't have people or parents to give them, buy them gifts. >> we're lucky to be here. seeing kids' faces, smile and have a good time. >> the chp also handed out toys to kids at love temple baptist church in east oakland. >> jolly old st. nick had a hand in the holidays for some military families. abc 7 news was at moffitt field where the nfl alumni association and the wine country marines distributed hundreds of toys to the children of service people. >> we had an outpouring. we want this out there. -- once it's out there the community responded so generously. it was crazy. we have an overflow of toys. >> volunteers say the toys can make a big difference, especially for families who have loved ones deployed or injured during the holidays. >>> dange