i did not feel that when i reported your cme it was taken as seriously as i felt that it should havehe horror of what happened will rein with me for the rest of my life. the mcdonald's worker broown in tears as she spoke about sarah everhart. i was scared. i felt like that could've been me. i still think about this now. i had no one contact me or a for a statement. it was only after sarah's murder that i became involved. if he had been held accountable when i reported the crime, we could have saved sarah. >> if only his sexual offenses had been properly investigated in the yrs before sarah's murder, in the days before. now it is too lat. because indecent exposure wasn't and still isn't taken seriously enough. kent police and the met police now have investigations into their own failures to uncover cousins' sex offenses. >> i wish that when cousinhad been arrested for these offenses before he went on to rape and murder sarah everard, and for thati'm sorry. >> do you except there were missed opportunities to arrest when cousins? >> i am, and i am sorry for sarah's family. i cannot imag

even more so than cme, which is mostly futures.quity options, specialty of the cboe, have had much bigger volume surges than traditional futures. so, the market has recognized that. you mentioned it's up 12% in the last year. just massively outperformed all the other exchange stocks, whether it's intercontinental exchange, this one, nasdaq, cme. part of the reason for that is they now list options every single day, that expire every single day. >> the date of expiration. >> this huge fa nom nom. s&p 500 options are up last year versus last year. the ten-year growth is 12%. there's a rule of thumb, derivative volumes grow faster than the underlying securities volumes. this is a decent way to capture this. >> mike brings up a point that i've heard so many traders at the retail level and even at the institutional level talk about, that the emergence of these so-called zero dtes or zero date exter rags options have made it more casino-esque. now people can take binary views on certain things with very little time delay for any of these

taking cme public in '02 and seeing some of the things that happened all the way through dodd/frank, surprised me over this last couplee1 of weeks is, you know, when you look ate1 fundamentally what's going on in the world probably the last six to eight weeks,/ been a whole lot of change going on, except for one thing. that is the continuation of potentially rising of interest rates. so when you look at a bank like svb or signature, or other banks that have lost a tremendous amount of money by notxd protecting their bond portfolio, i say to myself, i say, wait a ñ isn't that what they do for a living? is do interest rates. and all of a sudden theye1 did e risk? so i'm really perplexed by this. and there's no what happened here. the products not only available here at cme, but other institutions all around thejfxd world to mitigate that risk. you're trying to get a yield and all of a sudden your customers want the cash back. ;pmñ how can that be q a surpri to anybody? and then i know you guysxd are talking a lot about the fed. i'm tryingok to figure out, why should it have any influen

terry duffy, cme chairman group ceo and all types of invests under his watch. have you but i love your opening line in the column saying well it was fun while it lasted. two decades of easy money justed by excessive rounds of stimulus spending. all over now. now what we get out of jer ream powell the reverse is going to be more common in the future, higher rates for longer. what do you think of that? >> right. i think the you know the fed had plenty of opportunities throughout the years and i said this publicly, i'm a big fan of chair powell but any they had opportunities to move rates over the last several years so we wouldn't be in the situation we're in today and unfortunately i think politics plays a role into the fed even though it is supposed to be an independent agency. i'm not saying it is this president or past one or before on that, i think a lot have influence on the fed. hence we did not move rates when we had opportunity to do so and we put ourselves in a very difficult situation we're in today. you heard what the chair said, neil, we'll have highe

cme fed watch they're saying okay, no more hikes.hen we pause here but then beginning in july of this year all the way until july of next year, just the series of rate cuts and, what bothers me with this, liz ann, if this is true, that means they have wrecked the economy to be this dramatic. what do you make of it? >> nothing is true prospectively, not the cme tool, market expectations. we've seen in the last two weeks we'll jump all over the place. on march 8th, if you looked at the fed funds future curve showed a terminal rate of 5.7% and no cuts. that plunged in the wake of failure of silicon valley bank, popped back up again. neither the fed's dot plots, summary of economic projections, tool like cme tool is anything resembling a roadmap for what is actually going to happen. so the one thing i would say about the prospect of rate cuts, to the extf an overall goldiloc, really optimistic narrative, that is what really doesn't make sense. it is certainly possible that by mid-year, the fed might be cutting interest rates but not if e

solve we need law enforcement to focus on protectingur communities and there i more we can do to reduce cmend keep communities safe while making re the criminal justice system operates fairly and without prejudice. task force on racial equity and criminal justice offers smart solutions for officers to intervene and i'm glad this legislature took action on the recommendation to pass a bipartisan bl that i signed let's continue that important work as there is more to do and let'snvest in resources toecruit andetain more law enforcement officersnd support them with better pay and better training they deserve. [applause] and let's take affirmative steps to make life safer for everyday people by keeping guns away from children and criminals and those who are dangerous to themselves and others. [applause] this is particularly true now that death by gunfire has surpassed gunccidents number one injury death in children a recent report found in 2021 children in north carolina were 51 percent more likely to die from gun violence and children in the united states as a whole. if you support the respons

if you see sneaky cme in a double xl sweatshirt, the thing is, cme doesn't go for double x sweatshirt today my dad asked me where i come up with all these nicknames for random political figures i said it's not me, its waters. i don't even remember anybody's real name anymore. it on about how allie, and naughty, don't forget about tar tamales. i'm waters, this is my world. ♪ >> tucker: welcome to tucker carlson tonight. one thing we have learned after many years and the news busines is that every once in a while, you get to eat some crow and admit despite your best intentions, you are completely wrong about something. tonight is one of those times. in the nearly four years we've been under the impression, oppression we communicated to you that actor

and because before service approve that without going through notice and cme. and that environmental organization hadtaing because there was some possibily at if they went throh e proper process, that the for service would change its nd and would not approve the burnt bridge project. i think it's the same thing here. if the secretary goes through the proper processthe's some, and negotiated rulemaking, notice and cme, there's some possibility that he will change his mind and forgive our debts. justice thomas: we are the procedures in summers applied in summers? mr. connolly: where they implied? justice thomas: no, applied. mr. connolly: oh, applied. in that case, yes, the court id, the court found it was drawing a distinction beee why they would've had standing in one place and woun't of in another. and the reason that the group ultimately did not have standing is because they had settled it. but the court said that if bernie ridge had still been on the table, that they would have had standing. justice brown jackson: doesn't your theory of injury rely on the as

we'll put up cme fed watch. have one, two, three, four, rate hikes, 25 basis points but look at the range it takes us into. i then think the street by then thinks all damage is done, a lot of damage is done then the fed begins to retreat with a rate cut. what do you see? >> on twitter we track this real time. we've been following this the last four weeks pretty much every day. it is actually fascinating to see how the base case used to be we're going to 500 bps here. now we're seeing rates going up as high as 6%, maybe higher than 6%. we think, we'll see another 3, four rate hikes, up to 5.75% fed funds rate. charles: 5.75? >> we could also see 50 bps rate hikes in march here. 31% chance. that is up from 1% three weeks ago. charles: that would be predicated next round of economic data matching the surprises we've seen thus far, right? >> right. charles: this is supposedly data dependent federal reserve. >> what is crazy the data literally changing. in november, december, ppi revised higher, the same with pce. we

. >> the cme group has an instrument called the tbl and that measures bond volatility. and we're at levels last seen in march of 2020, and i think we all recall what was happening there. and, you know, last night i was complimenting the fed being steadfast in their want to combat inflation and i agree with them. but the thing that i'll push back on, you know i'm not a fan, is so much for stable markets because when you see bond moves like this, it is unprecedented it is precedented, because we have seen it before. but it should not trade the way it is trading and as i said a number of times, it just sort of is the precursor to equity volatility i think that's probably why steve iceman will make some comments he makes. >> also have to remember, there are so many things going on right now in bonds, the fed opening up that window to pay par for bonds. so the market has been caving, financials have been caving. so i don't know which is right they're all correlated to a certain extent we have to wait to see how it plays out before you make up your mind, right >> in terms of

we settled down, before the day over, cme number will be in the 40s, low 40s.veryone is talking about cash, certificates of deposit. that was a relic of the past. we thought it went the way of the dodo bird but it hasn't. big banks are under pressure. they're dragging out paying out bigger cds. the s&p financials are moving sideways. i want to know if there is relationship. s&p financials came on pretty good. they had another move late last year. they stalled in an area where they stalled over the last few years. is there some correlation, jim, about the way that they have handled their retail clients with respect to things like higher cd payments? is there some other problem with respect to them not being able to get over the hump? >> so you know how gas stations when oil and gas prices go up, how quick they are to change the prices on their sign out front? when gas prices come down how slow they are to change them back down? that we're seeing the same thing in the banking industry right now. i don't think it is reflecting in the share price too. i think if an

some investors and industry leaders are calling for a pause in rate hikes, the cme fed watch tool ses es -- sees a 75% hike of .25 let's get to our guest this is where you should watch investors should pay attention to money market flows and bank reserves if these get too low, the fed is guaranteed to make a hard pivot. do you think that will happen, sir? good morning >> good morning. thank you. that is where you need to watch. if you look at the line in the sand for the fed for monetary policymakers in general is to understand the situation -- to take a step back, the fiscal response to covid created surge in demand and creating inflation now. to understand the problem the fed faces is where everybody focuses. there is the other issue of monetary policy from the gfc and covid, basically created surge in debt. that debt exists and has to be refinanced we live in a world where it has to happen. you need to have enough liquidity to stamp that role and for that to happen, credit markets need to function properly most of the borrowing happens in the market if you see the markets start to

two-day policy meeting today ahead of day one, more than 75% of interest rate traders according to the cme watch tool are expecting a .25% fed rate hike, but moody's and wells fargo don't agree. economists are calling for the fed to move hawkish. we have tom porcelli with us now. we have the differences of opinions over whether this should be a pause or quarter hike what is your opinion and what do you think the fed will do? >> good morning. good to see you. i have been doing this a long time i don't really recall a time recently where there has been such a dispersion of views particularly a day before the fmoc meeting our view is the fed will raise rates tomorrow. >>> -- tomorrow. 25 basis points. it will be a close one this is a classic idiom of what they should do over what they will do. you know, our view the fed was fighting the war on inflation. we never believed getting this aggressive at the end of the hiking cycle it is clear with the market as you said 75% chance of the fed going tomorrow to deliver. if they didn't deliver on the back of market pricing and virtually a 25 basis po

we look at the cme fed watch tool where do you see the action potentially going with the rate hike andarket with the volatility this week? >> i think the turmoil and volatility of this week is probably resulted in shifting to the 25 basis point hike. when jay powell mentioned a week ago that a 50 basis point hike was in the cards, i think that was the case i don't think that would have come out if that wasn't where they were going. then the activity with silicon valley bank and turmoil we experienced last four or five days thinks we will have a rate hike, but 25 basis points is more likely. that is a sign of two things one, the fed does not believe that there is a big problem brewing that is systemic in nature otherwise, it would be more likely to be zero or scuttlebutt with the rate reduction. secondly, the economy is relatively healthy although i think the pace and rhythm, if you will, with the layoffs is quickening >> i think the economy is healthy overall. the fed is trying to cool it off. not trying to speed it up. let's take the other side of the argument with the 25 basis point

it relates to the ominous feeling in society, the ceo of the cme group blasting soaring crime in chicagoh this, roll it. >> employ thousands of people in chicago and i said that excuse is gone and now they are worried about their safety. 3:00 in the afternoon my wife got carjacked in the city of chicago and it is insane what's going on here. i said why don't we invest in our future and invest in young people, they are worth saving so let's do it, but we have to incarcerate them in some way, shape or form, can't let them do the same thing an hour later, that's not helping them. stuart: you used to live in chicago and now you live in nashville. was crime one of the reasons you left? >> i see what 1-party rule was doing, that's one of the reasons i left in 2014. taxes going through the roof. i was paying more in real estate tax than i made in my first job coming out of college, those types of things did not resonate with me so i made a move for my pocketbook. the safety thing has gone down so this is where people feel frustrated. you feel taxes for the firemen to put your fire out and make

mine is uber i like tonight's release >> dan >> yeah, last call i'm watching time cme group.ime i bought it since the report a month ago it broke out of a four-month trade. >> there's no thew yaism, "yeah, i'm watching last call." >> watch "last call" tonight >> hca, mel. it's breaking out. >>> "mad money" is >>> my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >>> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but teach you. call me out 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how cth

i think cme group, that's ai] tn tech, has a good thing going with individual investors becoming addicted, the world's largesto asset manager with $8.5 trillion of assets. this is a fine business, but it might get hurt if there is a5a■ major pullback in consumer spending. so you know what i'm going to do the stocks are on fire. up more than 65% for the year. mark zuckerberg finally has religion. performance reviews? that's a good thing.e1 we're left with 13 stocks from this group of 20 s&p components with the best credit rating. i want a few more, though, as they need more exposure to health care, industrials, materials, real estate and the utilities if it will be truly diversified. soeó.s let's drop down another credit rating. for health care, we like eli lily, which we like their fáe1 antiobesity. maybe they'ree1 a plus credit rating. i like itw, the best industrial you have never heard of. trucke1 maker, reported the strongest quarter in the whole sector. if you want to fill more holes, we want to drop down with more credit ratings. here we have lindy. remember, we keep focus of this.

. >> according to cme fed watch, there's a 35% chance of a quarter point rate hike when the fed meetser this month. much more likely a 65% chance of a half point increase. and powell's testimony sent u.s. financial markets plunging. the dow fell 575 points tuesday, the s and p 5 hen lost one and a half and the nasdaq dropped one and a third, investors are hoping to recoup some losses let's take a look at the too muches and the dow is up slightly positive territory but only just we'll keep a close eye on that. let's cross over to the asia pacific region, you can see a mixed back there, japan is up nearly half a percent. everything else there in asia in the negative territory, hong kong sank down more than 2%, trading just got underway in europe, all in negative territory, and you can see zurich smi down nearly half a percent. >>> carefully core graphed event is underway in beijing where journalists are supposed to be able to openly operate, and yet, it's still full of state controls. we'll have a look inside. ♪. ♪. ♪. love can get a little messy... good thing there's resolve. love the

that's according to cme's fed watch tool that's a 50% surge in the space of a month on the benchmarkate crossing the 6% mark by september stands at more than 10% that's up from just over 1.5%. that was before powell's speech. >>> let's take a look at u.s. equity markets all three major indices ended sharply yesterday, really tanking on the back of the comments from the fed chair. clearly as you heard there, we heard a lot from jerome powell, but the key takeaway that had markets nervous was his openness to larger hikes once again we saw u.s. equities sell off, treasuries experience a selloff as well as a significant further inversion of the treasury yield curve. you can see that on your screens now. the 2-year and 10-year hitting its steepest in more than 40 years. the question, of course, when will that recession come, how long will it last, how deep will it be. >>> in terms of european market, we've been more resilient. you have the xetra dax down. it's not red everywhere. you've got patches of green. the stoxx 600 fell back 6.8% there is some divergence taking place and european e

so i think this is the best way to play for the upside in bitcoin is through the options over at the cmes: all right, jon, always appreciate you, my man. thank you very much. >> thank you, charles. charles: folks, started out as a start-up. we got one founder of a business who will give us her, she will go over the rates she had to go through to get funds from silicon valley bank, not knowing there would be a bailout over weekend. she was racing the clock to save her life. president biden says the money is not coming from the taxpayer. where is the money coming from? we'll ask jim rec kerts. you will be shocked about this. how to protect your own savings even with a fdic limit. ♪. >> tech: when you have auto glass damage, trust safelite. my customer really relies on his car's advanced safety system. [alarm] >> instructor: veer right. [ringing] >> instructor: and slow down. >> tech: so when he got a cracked windshield, he turned to safelite. we're the experts at replacing glass and recalibrating your vehicle's camera, so automatic emergency braking and lane departure warning work properly

look at the latest from cme. we've got three rate hikes but this next one will be 50, 25 and 25.hat was sort of in the cards but what is really intriguing here though is how quickly the fed will have to rescue the economy. we'll have one rate hike, two rate hikes, three rate hikes, cuts, i'm sorry, rate cuts. early next year. so essentially what they're saying the fed i going to wreck the economy here. it will become really prevalent there, then it will become clear, golly you guys have to go back as usual to save the money. meanwhile, two and 10-year yield serve, this is the most inverted it has been take you back in history, since 1981. remember back then it lingered for a couple years. this is not just saying recession. this is suggesting deep, long-lasting recession. i get it wall street wants to crash the market as soon as possible so they can pick up the pieces but here's the thing, jay powell, he is saying we're not trying to raise the unemployment rate. we're just trying to great disinflation. he is getting pressure from all sides. uba private wealth manage mag director,

in fact take a look at cme fed watch rate probabilities. this is nuts.hey're marking four rate hikes in a row, 50, 75, maybe that is terminate rate. followed by four rate cuts this leaves everyone of course on pins and needles. you're nervous in the environment. show with the advisor group chief market strategist phil blancato. phil, street is very beauish. wall street is bearish all year long. puts through the roof, vix calls through the roof but you know, what i'm not understanding is, why do think insist that the market has got to break right here? >> because four -- fear of gigantic recession there is belief around wall street, every bank is in the cam that the fed can't fix this, and we'll get a real calamity and market will fall on it its face. that is where we're stuck right now. charles: jay powell will get grilled on capitol hill. it will be a speck at that kel. we know that. what do you expect to hear from him? he says? >> the reality is right now he has got to be very careful because january proved that the data was significantly strong, much

actually have jurisdiction with respect to the russian invasion of ukraine and the various atrocity cmes there. there is jurisdiction for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. in this case, mr. putin would not have the defensive of state -- the defense of head of state immunity because it is an international court. that is not in effect before the internationacriminal court. nick: in some ways, today's charge is narrow. the story that aired before we started focused on the fact it is the deportation of children from occupied territory. the icc had been considering charges against russia for indiscriminate bombing against civilian targets. what is the significance of the icc choosing this charge? david: this charge is actually low hanging fruit because they have been so transparent and self-incriminating in russia about whathey are doing with the ukrainian children. it's self-admitted by the leadership of russia. particularly, these two individuals who are named today in the arrest warrants. but, this will only be the beginning because other crimes such as knocking out the po

but i've got to tell you, the cme fed watch model sees a cut every single meeting from now through julyng to bring in collie owe capital -- cleo capital managing director, zaire sarah kinds. what to do you make of some of this modeling that suggests there's just going to be a long string of cuts? >> i think that thermoed eling a fantasy. you know -- thermoed eling a fantasy. the fed has been consistent even in the last couple days since jay powell's remarks. the fed governors have come out and said, no, guys, we really are going to do more hikes, and we're not doing cuts anytime soon. they are telling the market, and the market's say aing, well, maybe if we model it this way, they'll bend to our will. this fed has been remarkably consistent, and i don't see that changing. charles: jpmorgan says all the excess savings that's been out there we talked about, that the it probably will be gone by mid year: how does that change your outlook on the strength of the economy, the strength of the consumer? >> the consumer's been in a tough situation for a while, right? you look at auto loan defaul

he's standing by at the cme in chicago. what do you think is going to happen today, rick? the hill and stop. i don't see any way around them doing 25. i think the logic that many have expressed on your show, joe, that if the fed doesn't raise a quarter point, it's going to show how nervous they are about the banking system. if they were nervous about the banking system, we wouldn't be talking about the banking system, they probably would have monitored it better and i think everybody knows there's some nervousness out there. people are awake. people aren't ignorant. it seems like a very superficial argument. joe, i think you actually get the a-plus. you've been talking about raising capital requirements at banks. for years, going back to '06 in the credit crisis, trying to modify behavior of banks is a alsoing proposition. they're lions, they're meat eaters and the government leaves raw steaks all over the place. like clients that trade. talk to terry duffy who runs a great exchange here at the cme or any other exchange in chicago. they learned when markets get crazy they

but instead of doing this through negotiated rulemaking and notice and cme, they carved up the line, they did it all in secret. i pot e court to page 31 of the government's reply brie on that page, the government said that it had extensive discussions with bksand ultimately decided not to forgive ffel loans. that's the type of thing that should be happening on the -- >> mr. connolly, aren't you really fighting congress on this one? the heroes act specifically says, no notice and comment, no negotiated rulakg. specifically says, there's going to be an emergency. so, we areavg those procedural requirements. so, you know, you might think that conesmade a wrong call there, but that's congress's call. mr. connolly: becae e congress wrote the heroes act, the waivers and difications have to actually be authorized by the act. you can't just label something a waiver and modificio and skip through negotiated rulemaking and notice and comment. right there, subsection be, it's as notiated rulemaking requirements shall not apply to the waivers and modifications authizor required by the act. it do

úhe nexáir "squawk on the street," we have cme group chairman and ceo terry duffy on his expectationsights at least thus far. good morning, meg. >> good morning, david.o7o this is seen as a really important hearing, both for moderna itself, but more broadly, for the drug industry. and focusingtó' the price of their medicine. senator bernie sanders, isxdÑi chairman of the senate health committee. he's been a big advocate for >> the bond selling out there was different, includingó7! lat this ñryear, that demand is expected to drop by about 90% for the vaccine. there are other complexitieç■wh jt the vaccine into a single-dose vial or a pre-filled syringe.i] the 60,000 pharmacies, hospitals, doctor's office they will now have to deliver to as opposed to the few government warehouses. it, but looking for some potential fireworks that's important for not just moderna, but for the whole okindustry. >> without a doubt, meg, thank you. meg terrell. that doesxd it for another hour- for th hour is of ♪ ♪ luxury exemplified. innovation electrified. with apple music seamlessly integrated. the all-

why weren't they using the cme group of products? >> all offá it. thereçó sooner?ng on? investors hounding them, just like they&mq houndingcjf tech. what's your total addressable market?cq how are you growing? >> jpmorgan stayed pretty conservative. they kept their duration. >> jpmorgan'st( brand is, we'll >> others too. >> i'm not sure about citi, frankly, but yeah, others. b of a, not clear. >> but we're seeing more stability todayi] as we look evy day to see what the confidence factor is around the bank. first republic is up in the premarket. >> there you go. that is the barometer. >> it is. >>> still to come on the show, the ceoq of tiktok, big day, se to testify beforeÑi congress, hoping to save the app in the u.s. we've got all the details. >>> plus, we are watching shares of block this morning. tumbling after hindenburg research says, shortq the stock. more on that story straight ahead. ahead. >>> takng a look at fi utat morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to m

ashton, there's this other big medical headline that just cme out this morning, the fda has just approvedasal spray and would be the first in the class of migraine medication. now fda approved. it can work as quickly as 15 to 30 minutes, very well tolerated in clinical trials and possibly expected to be in pharmacies by this summer. so that will be good news for people. you will need a prescription, of course. >> 15 to 30 minutes, that is important help when you are dealing with a migraine. >> oh, yeah, sure is, rebecca. >> dr. ashton, thanks so much for joining us. michael? >>> well, this morning we are remembering the life and legacy of the first president of the navajo nation. peterson zah served as chair before being elected president in 1990 on the nation's largest tribal reservation and made his mark on education in the reservation and at arizona state university. his passion was inspiring students, especially tribal youth, to attend college. peterson zah passed away after a long illness. he was 85 years old. >>> coming up in our "gma morning menu," our series, the tech effect looks

i managed a package, terry duffy head of the cme was happy, record volumes we saw on friday, monday and here is what's important is not just the record volumes but everything working the plumbing of the system worked very well, tremendous stress in the last week, nothing broke, and that was very -- made a lot of participants very, very happy. >> that's something. bob, thank you bob pisani >>> meanwhile ecb president christine lagarde has been speaking this hour on the heels of raising interest rates 50 basis points that was a double. the euro is strengthening as a result, talking tough on inflation. steve liesman joins us with the highlights although she did not ignore what was happening in the banking system and said they stand ready to act. >> quite the opposite. she took it on straight on and investors in the u.s. need to watch this carefully because this could be a dry run for the fed next week. the european central bank hiking 50 basis points and insisting there's no conflict or tradeoff between fighting inflation and securing the financial system. christine lagarde, the european c

th can do wonders --efuse services whose only cme is following an unaountable algorithmi judge. as someone who grew up a traditional aclu liberal this mechanism for punishment and deivation without due proce is horrifying. other troubling aspect is t wrote the press which should be the pele plus -- line of defense that insteadf investiging these groups journalists at barter with them. twitter removes an account of ngos wouldall reporters for "the new yorkimes" and the "washington post" and other outlets who in tur wl call twitter demandingo kno why tion had not yet been taken. effeively news media became an arm of the state sponsored thoughtolicing system for policing system. i'm running at a time so iill sum up and sayt inot possible to inantly writehe truth and it is becoming technologically possible to instantl enfor a political consensus on line which i beeve is what we are looking at. this is a grave threat to people of all piticalersuasions to the first amendment and the americanopulation right to speak the best defen left against censorship industrial complex. these group

rick santelli standing by at the cme. what are the numbers today? >> february preliminaries.e, came up better than expected. so we finished up last year up 0.2. finally, if you look at shipments versus orders, they were also unchanged, which matches transportation but unchanged was 0.2 less than expectations. we're getting some subtle revisions across the boards. minus 4.5, all the way down to minus 5 and transportation up 0.8. why am i spending so much time on that revision? the numbers weren't good on the surface and when you take into account that number was downgraded, that adds into the notion. we all know that this quarter isn't shaping up to be necessarily a good quarter. many are seeing recession. i don't see a way to avoid it. just to put a face on this, we all see what's going on with interest rates, 356 in the two-year. on march 8th, though closed at the highest since 2007. now we're at the lowest since september ten-year and we did the charts a month ago and about five months ago i'd stake my claim here, 4 1/2 is the high. it was the high back in october. we never

let's get out to rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick >> reporter: good morning. start out with initial jobless claims last week we popped back above 200,000. not to be this week. under 200,000. 192,000. that is the lightest since the last week in february and it does underscore how tight the labor market is. and if we look at continuing claims, they popped above 1.7 million last week. back under it, 1,684,000, and we could see import prices d down 1/10 of of 1% and strip out petroleum, down 0.4 of 1%. that's the biggest month-over-month negative change since july of last year. if we look at year-over-year import prices, they were down 1.1, exactly as expenses and export prices up 0.2 year over year export down over 0.8. starts have been negatively effective interest rates this month already started the improvement, 1,450,000 on starts, seasonally adjusted annualized units it's much better than what we were looking for 1,450,000 actually is the best number going all the way back to september of last year permits 1,524,000 much better than the 1.34 million we were

just have the same type of margin requirements that we do for clients that trade for futures at the cmeop on the value of the assets on the banks. we haven't had interest on the loans at all. s that that's still to come. >> and it's going to manifest in more printing. if they asked me to lend at par, i wouldn't take that trade. >> joe, i just want to jump in and answer that. what the fend is lend being a the par at when it comes to treasury securities and more government guaranteed paper, that's not at least a lost to the fed and using their ability to hold the security, that's not what bugs me. it's whether or not it gets into the loan. >> it's not a good use of capital. >>6)w,$rpppens after one year? i don't know. they never offered general john q. public the ability to -- hey, my 401(k) is down 70%, that house across the street looks really sharp. how would you like to lend me 100% of what my 401(k) was, i'll settle up with you in about a year. yeah, i'll take that deal. >> if market forces dictated what was happening, you wouldn't do it. that makes more dislocation. thank you, rick

this is on the heels of adp that is a little stronger than expected rick santelli standing by at the cmeooking for a january final for trade balance. it's going to be a deficit but a much smaller deficit than we had over the last year we're expecting 68 billion with a minus sign, minus 68.3 billion, almost spot on with estimates. when you put that into the mix, we notice that last month's 67.4 minus was the smallest deficit going all the way back to september of 2020. so we are making progress and i'd like to high lie that the ugly watermark was in march of last year at minus 106 billion so definitely we have made some progress has we see. now, if we look at the pressure r treasuries quite quickly here, every treasury has lower yields, higher prices than yesterday's when you look at 2s and 3s, 3s join the two-year maturity yesterday in closing above their fall high yield close. yesterday it was 5.65% about a week and a half ago it was 4.275% why are these important? because it crawling down the curve in terms of the intensity of the shorter maturities buying into more of the fed strategy