for me, it's a win-win for cme group. we continue to manage it, others don't have what we have, as it relates to some of the product mixes we have. >> terry, in our world, when you are early, you're wrong, but you've been ahead of so many different things, and in october, i think it was halloween of 2021, you announced that deal with google, ten-year deal, cloud infrastructure, a lot of people said, what does terry duffy see that we don't. and here in july of '23, a.i., all those things, you are sort of at the forefront. maybe speak to that integration and what that means to markets, because i think you are really positioned well for this >> well, guy, i appreciate that, and we did see a lot of things with google and the cloud, and i'm extremely pleased to say that we've moved many applications from market data applications to clearing applications into the cloud and we're progressing right along, but one of the things you touched on, i know everybody is touching on a.i. we're learning so much about a.i. and machine learn

would put it at about 4876 year end levels we haven't seen since january 2022 right now looking at the cmeed watch. how does that influence your theory that we're in a new bull market and the stocks have an upside >> like i said, another thing, too, think about this you've had a great half of the year think of the hedge fund managers that didn't participate in the upswing we've had. when you look at the great first halves and second halves, you have people trying to change it. you have fomo. fear of missing out. you've got $5.5 trillion in cash that's an amazing amount of cash >> so it's just cash on the sidelines. we keep hearing about the market broadening out is. this going into that big tech trade? are you still confident in that? i have to ask you again, how does that change that ai mega cap tech trading in your mind? >> i don't think it changes that at all i think it's going higher. i think that is the future i think there's so much opportunity and i think the people need to jump on the b bandwagon and there's a lot of money being missed stocks are doing wonderful things >> so you're

the way they pointed out and according to the data and the cme tool from the fed, there is a 92% chance they will hike at the end of the month does this help for a softer landing? can we say there will be a softer landing and writeoff the chance of the full recession >> obviously, there is the probability things will be different. if i was there, i would wait i think there would be a soft landing based on what i see now. i wouldn't do it from what you said, i'm going against the majority of economists that's what i would do if i were there. >> it is also about the final push to 2% if one is trying to do a pushback, you see the initial push is the one that gets harder we could see the same for inflation. they got to 3% the hardest part is dropping off to the 2% mark is it that reason that they will keep looking at tightening i know you have a contrary view, but could that be the primary reason >> it could be you see here is where you need more patience. you need to be more disciplined than the beginning the problem is that it is not likely to cause problems with 3% and not 2% of course,

looking to see the cme fed watch tool a 90% chance of a hike coming up this month we had austan goolsbeeng expect two more hikes it may not come in july of he believes we can achieve a soft landing with the two hikes. what is your prospect on the likelihood of hikes? >> i think the market is right more than likely, a hike this month and two more this year the labor market data was weak in the terms of the number of jobs created, but people overlooked the hourly average number was relatively strong suggesting there is wage pressure that is what the fed is focused on i think they want to get ahead of that as much as they possibly can. two more and one in july. >> you are looking at the wage numbers and jobs report. the other thing people are looking forward to is cpi and ppi. i want to bounce this off you. the wednesday cpi report and in june of 2022, cpi was 9% forecast to 3.9% year over year. if we are below forecast, we are showing the audience a graph, does that change the likelihood of the hike at this month's meeting in. >> i don't think so for two reasons. first, if you look at the

cme will reallocate. leaders of the largest chip makers in the u.s. are apparently calling on the biden administration to study the potential impact of restrictions on semiconductor exports to china. they warned it could hurt the chip industry. intel's new plant in ohio could be at risk if china's market is cut off. and adidas is receiving more than half a billion worth of orders for the first batch of unsold shoes from kanye west's yeezy line the sale could help the sports ware company from having to take a big writedown on the remaining stock. >> giving the stock a boost. it is outperforming nike. >> i didn't expect that to happen here we go. >> a lot of question about adidas after the whole yeezy. >> exactly. >>> this morning taking a look at shares of chevron moving higher in the premarket the second quarter results announcing a leadership shakeup. pippa stevens is here with conversation from ceo mike wirth. >> yesterday's announcement took wall street by surprise. starting here with the numbers the company posting a profit of $6 billion during q2

. >>> hunter bidens expected to plead guilty in federal court r coming hours for tax cmes. he is charged with two misdemeanors. wl resolve also a gun charge if he abides by court imposed rules. he owed at least $100,000 in federal taxes for 2017 and 2018 but didn't pay what was due by the deadlines. meanwhile his legal team denies that they lied to court officials in order to get filings from a senior republican lawmaker removed from the docket. the judge had threatened them with sanctions after a staff member allegely misrepresented who they work for. biden's legal team says it was a misunderstanding with two court clerks. >>> and allegations of hunter biden have the house speaker threatening to launch an impeachment requirery a riequir joe biden. >>> and tens of millions are under heat alerts as the extreme temperatures continue to shift to the east. tuesday alone, there were multiple heat records above 100 degrees across the southern u.s. chad myers takes a look at what is in store for the rest of the week. >> well, the heat in the south and southwest we've been talking

the most import thing you touched on a moment ago is they could debate any claims that you cme bowed to political pressure or -- ucme had bowed to political pressure. caroline: trying to still stand by their independence. what then does a deal, what recommendations, what remedies are likely to cut the mustard when it comes to the cma. >> she touched on this early in the interview and i think the only remedies are divestitures. bloomberg news reported according to sources earlier that this could possibly be aid to vestige of their u.k. cloud unit and has yet to be made public or clear or remedies microsoft is going to offer of the cma so that remains to be seen what will cut the mustard. caroline: i started that phrase and we will keep running with it. i love a british phrase in the morning. catherine, good to catch up with you. katherine gemmell has been one busy woman threat the week. the whole market has been busy, fun flow data from bank of america, despite the distancing -- them distancing themselves from markets, investors continue to go into tech stocks. tech funds attracted 1.

for a continued rally if we don't have bad news i do not see a lot of upside >> if you look at the cme, a hike in july joe, i see you doing a lot of nodding. do we have some consensus here >> this is all about bond yields and it's important to trail back the path that yields have taken. may 4th, you had a 365 on a ten year it subsequently rallied 145 basis points to a 511 16-year high now over the last four trading days you've seen that yield pull back by 35 basis points. i think yields are the story yields have taken control of dictating where risk assets including equities will be pricing. i think you look at the move in yields today as a reaction to a favorable cpi report, and you say to yourself this is a needed ingredient in the formula which will complete 2023 being a very positive year for equities in the near term, in the july, august, ceseptember time frame, the next 90 days, i'm not sure where markets go to jimmy's point and to liz's point i think there's vulnerability that you could see a sideways or weak quarter what's important yields don't get too far away, okay yields pu

decision meeting today and while it's expected to resume its rate hiking campaign while taking a pause, cme fed watch tool, the fed's future plans, they're just not as clear. wednesday, jay powell's statement and outlook for the months ahead joining me is "the new york times" federal reserve and economicing reporter jeanna smialek. good morning thanks for being here. let's start off, everybody is assuming that hike will happen and i believe you believe it's going to happen but what you expecting from powell's press conference a hawkish tone or something different? >> you know, i think jay powell is going to keep his options open we have a long time before the next fed meeting the fed doesn't make another decision until september 20th so have two jobs reports and two cpi reports, so from their perspective they have every reason to really sort of play this as sort of loose as they can, try to make sure they sort of don't commit too hard to any individual path. >> so they want to stay loose. that sounds different from what we've heard from the fed so far and they want to keep it loose and hear

but actually if one takes a look at the fed's cme fed watch tool, which is a tool used to predict whatinterest rates, there seems to be a 33% chance the fed could hike interest rates again in november. that's up 26% from last week. so it does mean there are fears there could be second round effects when it comes to inflation, and they may look to hike again even in september and who knows maybe even in november. >> yeah, we'll all be hanging on jerome powell's words later today. wall street will also be following corporate earnings. yesterday after the bell microsoft, snap, and alphabet, which of course is the parent company of google all reported results. what have we learned? >> yeah, so if we just things with perhaps microsoft they beat earnings on the top and bottom line and fairly good on that front and growth numbers coming out of the business there. the big problem, however, was that a.i. push for them is going to be one that perhaps isn't really clear. they have a system called copilot which they haven't been able to show consumers when that will come to market and investors pe

. >> friendship missionary baptist church, bethany cme and new zion missionary baptist church were all we heard stories of childhood in the heights, including those of diane stevens and eleanor breland. >> they had businesses, barbershops, there were hair dressers over there. there was a cab company. it only had one cab, but it was still a cab company. >> right there on greenwood, they had different places where even ray charles performed there. also, james brown performed up there. >> reporter: but even the famous could not stay in a white clearwater hotel or walk on the beach or swim in the bay. segregation bound their lives and exiled even their memory to segregated graveyards. how many of you believe you have ancestors in one of these cemeteries? about half of you. the segregated cemeteries of clearwater were sacred ground, until the ground became valuable. in the 1950s, headlines announced that the city of clearwater made a deal on moving a negro cemetery. hundreds of african american bodies were to be reburied to make way for a swimming pool. a department store was planned for th

we look at the cme report they come out with, it's a tool they use to give us what are the percentages 96% they were going to raise by a quarter. it was pretty clear. we heard from chair powell on many occasions, he is determined to get inflation to that 2% level so they are going to continue to do so if they need to as the data comes in as we get closer to september. that's going to be an interesting one as well. maria: i want to ask about market impact. luke lloyd is with me this morning. jump in. >> when it comes back to march of this year we saw the banking system start to almost collapse, right, and the federal reserve came in and basically bailed them out. we had unlimited fdic insurance. they're at close to 6%, right. is anything else going to break? if it is, what do you think it could be? >> well, that's a really great question. the one thing that concerns me right now is i take a look at the two year and 10 year, almost every single moment of the day i'm looking and taking a quick flash over there. and when i look at the two year and it's approaching 5, 5 is the level. when y

they've been very clear we look at different indicators out there from 'cme a great tool talks about it gives the report about 92%, that fed is go, going to continue on next meeting, here in july, so there is i that still sitting in the backdrop but i think they are going to look at data if this data does oppressive out maria this is something that is coming down it is not 2% that will be one big issue, they can stand by that they said look. this is our directive where we're going to want 2% it is not there yet. that gives at least the excuse for now, that they are of going to have at least one more hike i think obviously, looks like july, numbers look so strong i would say would be a shock to all of us if they didn't go up a quarter percent. maria: pete how are you playing pete this nasdaq rebalance nasdaq beck announced other day going to do a special rebalance of the nasdaq 100 index later this month as tech stocks, concern nasdaq up 31% year-to-date look at biggest three stocks accounts for more than 30% index combine, microsoft apple nvidia on fire this year, but here is, louis

rick santelli here live at cme hq with the last breaking news of the busy week.ly preliminary read expecting a number around 66 72.6 that's the best since september. if we look at current conditions, 77.5 that is the best since october of '21 look at expectation what lies ahead, 69.4. that's the best going all the way back to july of '21. these are powerfully strong numbers. now let's see what happens with inflation. also a bit strong. one-year inflation, popped up, to 3.4%. 3.4% now just to confirm, we've been mostly going down. so to hit 3.4%, we only have to go to last month when it was -- excuse me, may when it was 4.2 the point is, we're expecting a number of 3. many whispered that it would be lower than that. so 5 to 10-year is 3.1 we've had many 3.1s. that isn't as shocking as the one year and we could see that interest rates have moved up a little bit but but do keep in mind we are down huge on the week 379, 380 means we're down 27 basis points on the week on a 10-year even though it's up several on the session sara, back to you. >> very interesting. rick

rick santelli here live from cme hq we have breaking news this morning.iew mirror 239 but my guess is that stands to be revised. we're hovering right around what many traders and analysts consider to be -- we have a revision coming in, 239 becomes 236. 248 is the high since two weeks ago when it was 265,000, the high mark going back to oct '21. continuing claims a bit less than expectations and a bit less in the rear view mirror which gets revised 1,720,000 the current read at this point in time is the lightest read since february of 2023 so february of this year and if we look at trade balance, exactly as expected, minus 69 billion. the pop 10-year note yields up to 4%. we did get technical signals with a close about 3.82% that to many, including myself, signaled the call towards 4% does it man we're going to challenge the fall high of 4 1/4 from last year, that's possible. testing 4%, maybe we do a whisker higher when you look at that it obviously what the fed may or may not do if you look at last friday, last friday's percentages for the july quarter p

rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago rick, about 20 seconds before we get those numberst 20 seconds, and everybody, of course, is continuing to monitor how the economy is performing from the perspective of the consumer, the bulk of the u.s. economy, at a time when the federal reserve keeps snugging up rates, recent pauses look to be temporary as the meeting coming up in july, most assuredly is going to see a quarter-point increase we are a few seconds now away from the release of the june retail sales becky, we're expecting a number up about half of 1% in the rearview mirror is up 0.3, the most recent high water market is up 2.8 in january of '23 and it's taking a little bit of time before i can see anything passing through on the wires maybe the most important aspect of this number is most likely going to be how it responds to the control setting. all right. headline number, looks like it's populating across the wires. up 0.2% on retail sales. this is the advanced look. definitely not as strong as we were expecting and here's what's interesting. when you strip out autos

s&p up about 33 points i want to get over to rick santelli standing by at the cme.ys a good place to start. seconding 235,000, 221,000 to find a number lower you have to go back to the second week of february 2023. continues claims a very similar story. a big drop we're expecting 1.75 million and we end up with 1,690,000 to find a lower week you have to go all the way back to the last week in january of this year and you can see yields already moving up on those particular data points. gdp, better pan expected that is the best start since the last quarter of last year when we were at 2.6%. consumption, though, a big drop but it was expected. 4.2 last quarter, 1.6 this quarter but expecting 1.2. so it isn't bad when you compare it to expectations but i do need to mention that touch big drop pricing index, 2.2%. that's basically half of our last look, which was 4.1% and quarter over quarter, 3.8% versus 4.9% but it. >>> now, let's look at durable good order, shall we they will change much better than expected. 4.7% granted it's june preliminary. that is multiples of t

and as ktvu cme reporter henry lee explains, business and community leaders are not happy.urveillance video shows the suburban or tahoe ramming in a market one at oakland's fruitvale village. there's a chain attached and after the doors of the shop are forced open, the thieves run inside. they spent about 15 minutes rummaging inside the owner, who didn't want his face shown, tells me he's had enough. i can't even explain it, to be honest with you. i mean, i feel like even the authorities let them loose. there's no punishment. they were here for 17 minutes and 17 minutes. nobody showed up. it happened about 420 wednesday morning at the market. just a stone's throw from the fruitvale bart station . two car loads of young men drive up onto the plaza. they try to break into some nearby businesses before turning their attention back to the market. they try to break open an atm but were unsuccessful. they ended up stealing about 30 to 40 cartons of cigarets worth $4,000, as well as a cash register. this is the same market where a shootout erupted inside the store several months a