cme ceo terry duffy is with us this hour. a breakdown of earnings, trading activity and the impact of high rates across the markets >> speaking of higher rates, dismal comments from housing ceos on the calls today. why they're calling this property market the worst in decades. >> later on, what can the fed do about the deficit? absolutely nothing, according to the journal's greg ip. he'll join us this hour. >>> let's kick it off with the market there are some pockets of green that have emerged in the last few minutes, in defensive groups like staples and utilities everyone else is red communication services at the bottom of the market today that group is down 4.8%, because of google and alphabet, a sharp negative reaction to earnings there. a big week obviously, on the nasdaq as well, which is down 1.4%, alphabet will be the bottom performer, but you've also got weakness today in amazon, in apple, offsetting some of the strength in microsoft earnings and tesla. when it comes to finding opportunities in the market right now, o

cme ceo terry duffy is with us this hour.y and the impact of high rates across the markets >> speaking of higher rates, dismal comments from housing ceos on the calls today. why they're calling this property market the worst in decades. >> later on, what can the fed do about the deficit? absolutely nothing, according to the journal's greg ip. he'll join us this hour. >>> let's kick it off with the market there are some pockets of green that have emerged in the last few minutes, in defensive groups like staples and utilities everyone else is red communication services at the bottom of the market today

now we're seeing it in cme group. it's another one that reversed its base.t of stocks coming out of bear markets in 2022, they broke higher. here's a stock that's been flat through the last two months and now breaking through this consolidation pattern. fresh highs in this tape. that's an indication of relative strength. i think that longer-term turnaround continues for this. >> we go back to the whole business of trading commodities, as well. is there any kind of tailwind from that from the point you made earlier? >> there could be because it's not a one-off. you're seeing it across the board, cboe at a five year high, intercontinental, exchanges getting close on the 200-day. we like a broadening theme. >> lastly, you picked -- i mean you brought to us zscaler. what do you like about this chart? >> this is what we're recommending on this pullback. high beta, long duration, high momentum technology stocks. through this rate rise since the september 2020 meeting, it's been the best performing sector. you get in zscaler, the cybersecurity etf, a breakout acros

. >> the last stock is one you picked, cme group.arnings momentum and the price momentum tell you? >> i wanted to bring this one back i was on last time talking to a cnbc screener, this came up. why we liked it so much, it was coming out of a reversal pattern, and it had consolidated sideways and we were making the case it was going to break to the upside you have a tactical pullback it has come back into the breakout level there's a 50-day average right there. there is a broader theme as well capital markets you wouldn't know it given the weakness in banks, actually ranks as the top industry in our momentum ranks. >> wow based on what debt issuance or future activity >> there's security exchange working within the cboe, morning star, data providers, whatever the theme is, the charts are telling the story. it's not just one or two names when across the board there's action there cme group is also rated outperform by oppenheimer. for all these reasons we like this reversal in trend see the 200-day average and buy the pullback in antic

looking at the cme fed watch tool, there is now a 0% chance of a rate cut.hance of an increase or decrease but overall the financial markets still think the fed rate has peaked at 515% but the first rate cut will be seen till summer 2024 at the earliest. thank you very much. there will be going straight into my google search. amazon has reported a 13%jump in revenue for the quarter ending september. hammered by inflation and high interest rates in 2022, the company had spent much of last year in cost—cutting mode, laying off staff. but the strong quarterly report shows amazon's core e—commerce business is recovering, growing 7% compared to the same period a year ago. 0ur north america business correspondent michelle fleury sent this report. it was a strong performance by amazon. the e—commerce giant said revenue climbed 13% in the quarter, despite challenges posed by inflation and rising interest rates. sales in north america were up 11% from a year ago, and globally the picture was even stronger — sales rose i6%. now, amazon's advertising business is a grow

looking at the cme tool. 75% chance of a pause in december we have a lot of market moving reports.r 30th we have two more cpi reports before the december meeting. >> headline inflation is 3.7 i don't think that is going convince the fed that their policy will not bring time with patience to lower the rate they are likely to hit their target by the end of next year, not the year after if the fed is patient here, they can avoid a sharp easing cycle that is the risk we face if they shock the system it will take patience. i think most of the data we just saw at the beginning of the fourth quarter or september data were much stronger than the trend. you take a look at the range for unemployment the last 18 months has been 105,000 to 904,000 you saw the month of september above the slowing pace we have seen going ahead >> you are focused on data what about the data we are getting from mike wilson a lot of the top wall street minds are saying the impact of the rate increases hasn't been felt does the fed pay attention to that >> i think the fed is not very worried about financial conditio

very good i would absolutely tell people that they should be advised at least look at that fed tool 'cmehere maria that gives you a little bit of idea, what the percentages are we going to raise a quarter percent again? or are we going to pause? it looks like right now, at least 74% now still a ways out looks like it's going to pause that would be obviously, interpretation of what some job numbers really look like right now. maria: due agree with that. michael: i want skeptical every job above expectations to be revised lower by third, 12 sigma occurrence, so, you know is that 12 dooefgs i can't fountain that high in terms of decimals, the, reacceleration of economic activity economic growth earnings going into next year, i don't see it at all. pete, do you see that? >> no. i tend to be with you, i think that we still are in a struggling position right now, every once in a while numbers don't make sense given backdrop what we're seeing, owed of that, i think that we are starting to see a little bit of strengthen but not the kind of strengthen that you and i would be looking at either, so

with the cme fed watch tool showing an 86% chance the fed takes no action at the next meeting. let's bring in mark avallone of pa potomac wealth. we see the fed deciding not to hike at the next meeting come up in the next meeting. that is the latest opinion. do you agree? >> there is a lot of truth to that. you have terrible headlines across the world. we have the ukraine-russia war and the tragedy in gaza. the stock market now rallies and that comes down to the fact that interest rates drop due to the flight to safety. there was pillow talk coming from the fed heads yesterday. they where underscoring they wee near or end of the hiking cycle the. jay powell is the number one factor that could tilt stocks to the positive if the fed continues this pillow talk and sweet rhetoric and whispering what the market investors want to hear and then we see the stock market rally. short of that, i think there is caution. >> to your point, four speakers spe from the fed speaking later today. we have earnings growth for q3. earnings growth still. does the rise for oil prices change your mind

we are seeing the same happened when the first goal etf came to market and the cme, the highest institutionalas ever seen so we will see what happens here. adam: bitcoin is more of a beneficiary of that rogue investment strategy. gold or silver or other commodities and i'm wondering why. the etf taken out of the equation, what could drive it, stocks all over the map, bonds all over the map, a short point where people are running but no more. what do you think is driving this? brock:this is an alternative asset class, a hedge against financial uncertainty in the world and unlike gold, there's a lot of similar attributes. you can send this anywhere in the world near instantaneously for low fees and it can't be counterfeited so during times of uncertainty this is an asset class that appeals, concerned about the future. neil: it is hard to press, hamas found that a lot of operations using bitcoin. that raised questions regulators the world over will put that together and say we will clamp down will clampdown on these guys. brock:there are bad actors in the world and they will use whatever value t

this narrative, that's not going to be good enough for the equity market to feel comfortable until the cme goes for a hike this year. >> there's nothing definitive at this point to suggest that it's an all clear. the challenge for all of you oftentimes the market has already moved by the time you get the definitive all clear. it's about anticipating where things are moving. do you feel you have enough vision to make a call in the way you want to invest on the way you think things are moving? >> i would say this. clearly a windy road down. ppi was hotter than anticipated yesterday. cpi hotter than expected today. core is relatively in line. we saw inflation last week, a strong jobs number. the thing i think is important to kind of digest here, we're heading into a new normal. a new interest rate cycle, normality, which i think is kind of important to digest. okay, we've been in a free market era -- free money era for a decade and some change this is a new era. i do think rates are peaking, but the most important point for me is i believe they're stabilizing. what does that mean going forwar

it comes after microsoft restructured the deal after the cme initially rejected microsoft's first proposal. microsoft would transfer the cloud streaming rights for all of activision's pc and console titles to french gaming company ubisoft. ubisoft will license the game out and sell under different business models. this was a concern for the cma because the deal would give microsoft a lot of power in the cloud gaming market and it was a concern that microsoft could take activision hit games like "call of duty" and keep it exclusive on xbox. to allay the fears, the cma says microsoft won't have a stranglehold on the rapidly developing gaming market. a word on cloud gaming. it is new and young. the idea is you will be able to stream games as you stream a show on netflix and it removes the idea of a hardware console and you can use a controller and your tv. this is a big step and allows microsoft to complete the deal. frank. >> not a lot of momenvement wit the stocks. has the cma lost credibility not holding the line with this deal? >> reporter: the cma said something interesting today in stat

the cme fed watch tool is a 70% chance of no rate hike.d one more pause to keep the rally going? >> you see 30% and it will change this week and also with the relief of no government shutdown where data wellill flo out on time. the concern of sticky inflation pushes the fed to one more hike this year. the market is not broken. you have not seen these things. it gives them more wiggle room with one more. i see a tighter fed and i don't see a pause this year. i see a pause coming next year. >> we're kicking off q4. the mystery chart today is the sector underperformed. pepsi. why is now the time to buy pepsi? >> it is not just beverage, but snack story. it is a huge growth market. they missed out on the hostess acquisition. they are looking for another baked goods to buy. it is a quality company with 3% dividend yield. it was down last quarter. they are known for conservative guidance. they had a beat in raise for the third quarter. i like the beverages and snack levels. i know people are worried about gatorade. you have prime coming and body

another financial play that made the list, cme group, chicago mercantile exchange.n other words, they're middlemen. they trade. no dependency. long time favorite ix laboratories showed up. i love to see that because this stock could use a shot in the arm. they make diagnostic tools. the stock sold off hard because the pet plays were wildly seen as covid stocks. they are making a nice recovery late last year. and in the first half of this year. but it's turned ice cold since late july. i don't think it's going away, though. ix can weather any near term squalls thanks to the financial qualities that landed them on the list. not my favorite of the group. i keep looking at these and i keep coming back to this one, costco as the one i like the most. with this new era of higher than longer interest rates, we will spend more time worrying about companies hurt by higher borrowing costs. stay tuned tomorrow for the biggest losers from the same phenomenal. "mad money" is back after the break. >>> coming up, in the summer, our chart predicted the october 6th rally to the day.

looks like we will stay this according to the cme fed watch, maybe get our first rate cut in july ofext year. i could live with that, i could live with that. i call that dry powder by the way. these are some things we're looking at. finally there is the wild card, when do you pull the trigger, right? when do you really want to get aggressive with all of this. one of the things that is going to happen. these are the money market funds, right now six trillion dollars, six trillion dollars, some of that eventually will come back to the stock market. here is where i say maybe get really aggressive. over 4400 you will see some buying. over 4600 i think you got tonnage aggressive in the stock market. joining me now, wells fargo advisors svp mark smith. mark, i laid out my bull case. take some shots at it if you want. >> charles, not a lot to disagree what you said. a lot of my clients are sitting in money market. getting 5% rates plus. es socially talking about the "magnificent seven" up 20% this year. folks are saying i'm sitting on the sidelines, how do i get back in. you have to look at

then even with respect to the fed there is only still according to the cme fed watch a 38% of a rateike in december. we started the day at 32%. >> right. >> i don't understand is it machines that make this happen? what are these shenanigans? investors are watching and they're really nervous about it. >> it could be the algorithms of course. i always blame the machines when things go whacky and you can't figure it out. but it could be the traders, the hedge funds they are mostly bearish on bonds and bearish on the strong market. they're doing okay in the stock market but the s&p 500 seems to have found support at its 200-day moving average last week and it bounced off rather smartly off of that. look, this is a lot of things that are going right here. the atlanta fed just revised their number for real gdp to over 5%. 5.4% instead of 5.1%. that is awfully impressive. consumers keep spending. all this talk about they will retrench, slam out of brakes when they run out of excess savings that is not working out too well. people started to pay their student loans again. that doesn't really

cme is just about 30% this year, so cboe, i think it's an option, a takeover target, and we like it over here at capitalistpig.com. stuart: next one is truly exotic. >> getting a little less exotic. these stocks are cheap. i'm talking about emerging markets. by one measure they're as cheap as they have ever been going back to 1987. is so dirt cheap. and i think a tremendous opportunity. in fact, pakistan. just had its paris ipo on american -- first ipo on american markets just three days ago. a lot of these emerging markets are becoming slightly less emerging. pak trades at half the price it did just two years ago, and i do think you want emerging markets especially now given how dirt cheap they are. they're stuart you know we have viewers who tune in just for your exotic picks every friday at this time. >> keep watching. stuart: ceo you later. jonathan hoenig, good stuff. come on in here, ashley. oh, wait a minute, my prompter says you're taking a look at hormel foods as in spam, right? ashley: yep. sticking with the exotic theme, stu. [laughter] another bad day for hormel. goldman sach

remember yesterday -- at least not we, but the cme report thought it would be june, now they're lookingjuly are. summing up this report, this is the way i would put it. take a look. >> i am telling you right now, that's [bleep]. that [bleep] back there is not real. [laughter] finish. charles: by the way, less than 42 of those who were surveyed -- 42% -- even bothered to submit a response. only 42%. bringing in qi research ceo danielle demartino booth. all right, danielle -- [laughter] you know, i'm sitting there the with maria this morning, and i'm most stunned at just how quickly some people come up -- remember, this report is 39 pages long. you've got to go through it. so what parts of this will powell and company focus on the most? >> well, you know what? charles, the facts are not going to get in the way of powell's narrative. and i think that's what we have to keep in mind. in the last three months, charles, we've lost 692,000 full-time jobs. 692,000. we're replacing them with low paying part-time positions. last time we saw this outside of the covid lockdowns was 2001 and 2008. he

"madon" thimrar meywi j cme starts right now. you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you, so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. the bears want to have their cheesecake and eat it too but the facts won't let them. i'm talking about ho

"madon" thimrar meywi j cme starts right now. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. >>> my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you, so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. the bears want to have their cheesecake and eat it too but the facts won't let them. i'm talking about how hedge funds and the pessimistic strategies want things to go horribly. and they've been having their way for weeks. now the situation looks different. dow gaining another 135 points today, s&p climbing 0.25% and nasdaq jumping also. hard to fathom how the bears can gain credence. hard to take them seriously in this kind of tape. today's typical. we know there's been widespread concern

you mentioned the fed funds futures, the cme fed watch. of those gauges, if anything, they seem to suggest a cut comes sooner rather than later. >> that's correct. and i think when you just look at the totality of where the bond market has come, these long-end rates, bond funds, all of these, the whole segment has just really been taken out behind the wood she would. and i think what you're -- wood shed. i think you're starting to see the market is starting to price in maybe potentially a policy error. besides the late '70s cycle, the current interest rate hiking cycle is now the fastest and highest on record, you know? we have q2 going on -- qt going on in the background for balance sheet normalization. we just don't have a lot of history to compare the downstream effects. you know, we had the supply-demand balance, you and i spoke about this earlier this week. the fed has gone from a net buyer to a9 net seller. our foreign holders of our treasury holdings, that's about 30%. we've seen china step back, japan step back. i think -- and, of

according to the cme fed watch tool which measures the likelihood of a fed rate hike based on fed fundses. we'll likely have a rate hike at the next meeting barely changed. now only at 11.8% up slightly from 9.1% yesterday. still down significantly from 20% a week ago. in the end the cpi report wasn't great but it wasn't that bad either and investors kept their composure taking the slightly too hot inflation number in stride. at one point it looked like stocks might end the day in positive territory. the rally started too late as far as i'm concerned. it really put the kibosh on the rally with that bad treasury auction of the 30-yearing offering by the u.s. government. that caused an increase in long-term rates and that was hideous. bottom line i'm just glad we've gotten through the two major economic reports of the month without any major issues. now we can finally move on to earnings season which uno unofficially kicks off with a handful of big banks reporting tomorrow. at last we can make our buy and sell decisions based on what individual companies are saying, not based on the lates

the cme fed watch before i came on the air, everyone's talking about the fed, the fed, everyone's afraids: why is that -- okay, to your point, a right now november there's a 7.8% chance of a hike. a month ago it was 41%. december there's a less than 30% chance, a month ago it was 42. why is the market reacting as if there's going to be another rate hike this year when everything else says no? >> but it's happening on the other side. it's the long end of the curve. last year it was about the fed, right? now it's about the long end of the curve, and that's going up for a lot of reasons the fed has no control over. charles: right. >> plus, you're getting inflation from energy, and that's a key. at 5% today, last time i looked everybody still eats, everybody still buys gas, and if that goes up, touches every line item of the income statement. charles: so you like these defense contractors. you know, it's always intriguing because it seems like low hanging fruit. and and we pray this thing is over sooner than later. lockheed martin, northrop grumman, raytheon. >> interestingly, when we starte

he made a point, i was in his office in the cme in september and he has a treasure trove of these things. and i know you are trying to say that this is not your best stuff -- there's some good stuff in there, there's different colors, all scaled. it was really beautiful. >> i love rhythmic paper and i overlay it on celophane so they're really accurate. >> we are lucky to have rick. his expertise. he's a drexel guy like i was back in the day, but he's forgotten more about the bond market than -- they talk about who is this bond king person -- >> i don't know. >> that's the bond king right there. >> and the bond markets are always right. the bond markets are always right. and they're always ahead of the equity maeshgts. we talk about the economy, but equities sometimes really do whistle past that graveyard. >> absolutely. i think those days are going to be behind us. >> rick, thank you. rick santelli. 13.5%. long-term call, but that would be mind blowing for a whole generation who has never seen rates much higher from here. >> one of the things rick is saying, don't get in the way of -- we

charles: but i think everyone, maybe the stock market is, but cme, the fed watch, we're getting there know, how do we do this? how do you do this? because you're an economist but you're a stratgift as well. you wear two hats and the anecdotal part of me, the part of me that is a researcher i just don't see where the fed has to be as afraid as they are other than the ghost of paul volcker or ghost of arthur burns? >> well, but that is a pretty terrifying ghost to them, right? what they saw inflation spike, they saw it do a total head fake, come down and it wildly reaccelerated again and to them, you know, 4% inflation, 3 1/2 is still really far away from 2%. i will layer one on. for a lot of households they're not looking at price changes on a year by year basis. they're still grocery shopping and coming to the checkout with one bag of groceries that costs almost $100. charles: right. >> and feeling upset about it. charles: right. >> i think household sentiment is still weaker even though the fed can, they have progress on inflation but they can't claim victory on inflation. charles: i

if that happens, the same time, the same way this time, then maybe the cme fed watch tool isn't farfetcheddeling right here, that a rate cut is coming next june, a 37% chance of a quarter point cut then. this friday, key date, that is when you get the pce report, it is out. it may add clarity to the inflation story and the recession debate. but don't forget, a lot of very influential earnings reports are in between now and then including the big tech names which are sensitive to rates. the last point i wanted to make here, this quarter is supposed to be be the inflection point that will see earnings build over the next two years t has gotten off to a pretty sluggish start but if this is true then earnings will look good going out, charles. charles: they say earnings are the mother's milk of rallies. we need some kind of milk, lauren. i'm chugging whiskey right now i can tell you. i appreciate it. bring in ria advisors lance roberts. i know down in texas you drink whiskey with corn flakes, you say stop being a wussie. lance, this market seems oversold. i'm not saying it is going back up but

on sunday, traffic on kyiv's maidan, independence square, cme to a standstill f for one miminute of silenceeroffensive slowly progressing, more soldiers are dying each day. in washington, president biden pushed congress to get ukraine aid back on track. >> look at me. we're going to get it done. >> reporter: and ukraine's foreign ministry says that american support is both steadfast and bipartisan. in 45 days when the next u.s. budget needs to be passed, we'll find out if that's more wishful thinking. >> that was ramy inocencio in ukraine. >>> closer to home, health officials are warning of a possible tidal wave of infections this winter from the flu, covid, and rsv. the trouble is many americans don't plan to get vaccinated for any of that. bradley blackburn reports. >> reporter: with covid-19, flu, and rsv circulating in the coming weeks and months, top public health experts are spreading the word vaccines are safe, effective, and protect against serious illness. dr. mandy cohen is the director of the cdc. >> we're going to keep monitoring to understand how bad this particular season will

bonds, not surprising given the dynamic we've seen in bonds and everything else, edwards life sciences, cmegger laggards over the course of this past week, you kind of take a look at the names we've seen, many of the media telecom names have taken 52-week lows. the utility companies specifically. aes, nextair, 27 and 17, and mccormick on the back of what's viewed as a disappointing earnings report, down 18%. perhaps the most important one about this whole story is the mega cap technology stocks, they have been more stable over the course of the week. apple, nvidia, alphabet, all positive between 2 to 4% this week to date period. something to keep an eye on while the market is still in transition. >> it's a good point, dom, in particular the mega cap which had the nasdaq only down 0.2% off of that jobs number. some saying economic growth could lead to higher earnings. >> not just that, doing this in the face, these are rising in value amidst rising rates at a quicker pace as well. i mean, it's a curious story for sure, sdmifds yeah. thank you. >> still to come here, more street reaction to t

rick santelli here, live at cme hq with the breaking news of the morning.rter employment cost index expected to be up 1% is up 1.1% up 1.1%. and if we look in the rearview mirror, the prior month, the prior quarter was also 1%. so it's about equal, but now higher we are expecting one, 1.1. now, here's the interesting feature. if you look pre-covid at what was the high in the employment cost index, going all the way back to its inception, we were looking at 1.20. the reason i bring that up is that these are very evaluated cost index rates so we want to pay particularly close attention as we see all the metrics of inflation and pricing continue to be under the microscope is there going to be a resurgence is there not going to be a resurgence and with today the beginning of a two-day fed meeting, we want to pay particularly close attention, especially considering that the bank of japan disappointed last night, in terms of how much tweaking they did or actually did not do. the only thing really that changed was a reference point on their ten-year note yields, a

and our good friend rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago.i know you've got some thoughts ahead of it, rick, and then the numbers, of course. >> yeah, well, my thought is, we're staircasing in interest rates. all treasury yields yesterday traded higher than friday's highest yields. today, they're trading higher than yesterday's highest yields. that's called the staircasing, when you're a technician. and it means that the markets are what i call guns hot. you want to be very careful. interest rates are on the move. and that move is higher. retail sales hitting the wires for the month of september. expecting up 0.3 on headline, more than double, up 0.7%. to find a higher number than that, you have to go back to, when we were up 2.8, although we had another 0.7 read in may. if we look at it in ex-autos, still very strong. up 0.6. up 0.6, well, in comparison, if you look at july, july was up 0 p.7, so you could see that's where it comps. you've had back-to-back up 0.6. if you strip out autos and gas, it still remains very strong, up 0.6. and if y

rick santelli is at the cme in chicago.rm of the producer price index. september read on headline month over month expected up 0.3% is up a half of 1%. that follows a yet unrevised up.07 going all the way back to june of 22. strip out the all important food and energy components, up 0.3 versus last month up 0.2. strip out food, trade and energy, as expected following up. now the year-over-year numbers on final demand, which is basically the headline up 2.2%. last look was up 1.6 is what we expected fwen. up 2.2, the highest since april when we were up 3.2%. in june of this year, eerp only up 0.1, the lowest year over year since august of 2020. so we've definitely ak certainly rated a little bit. that's also the hottest since may when up 2.8. finally subtract food, energy and trade, up 2.8%. it's the only one cooler than its last look 8%. boy, you have to go way back in the way back machine to february of 2021. you could see interest rates have picked up and that makes sense to me. this notion that, you know, fed is slaying

let's go to rick santelli at the cme, the data dude. >> yes, the data dude.pected to be 204,000, not meant to be. we broke under 200. 198,000. 198,000. you have to go back to early january of this year to find a lower number in the form of 194,000. last week was revised from 209 to 211,000. continuing claims a different direction, expecting slightly over 1 million, 700,000, well a little bit more than we bargained for, 1,734,000, to a 1,705,000. you have to go back to second week in june to find a higher number that 1,734,000. we now have ten of the last 11 months, the ten reads we have, because this is obviously in october have been negative. the one month this year that was positive was august, and august was positive 12. so we went from minus 13 1/2 last month to minus 9 this month, and there's a couple of things to point out, steve. i know that mike was showing the tlt chart. i like that chart, too. the problem there is that if you look at the highs, and then the lows that you're at now, there's a wave count. and it doesn't look like the fifth wave is com