what i'm referring to specifically is that when you start seeing recessionary pressures, you know, the cni loan growth is probably also going to decelerate. so you're not really earning any margin at all on loans you don't make in the first place, not to mention the fact of course all equities typically are going to start to perform fairly badly if we have rapidly increasing rates and recessionary pressures that said selling the put spreads like the one he's doing whenna options premiums are elevated, doing so when it's out of the money, oftentimes when you're doing that in the catalyst, that can be a winning strategy so from an options winning strategy perspective i rather like it even if i haven't been overwhelmingly enthusiastic about financials >> let's mention that xlf trade. we're going to do an early look back a few weeks out mike laid out a bearish trade in the xlf so, mike, what are you doing now? >> yeah, so this is an interesting situation when you put on put spreads or you even do outrights the important thing to remember is once you start seeing the underlying run through your

i am referring to, specifically, is that when you start seeing recessionary pressures, you know the cni loan growth is probably also going to decelerate you are not earning any margin at all on loans you don't make in the first place not the mention the fact that, of course, all equities typically will start to perform fairly badly we have rapidly increasing rates and recessionary pressures a lot of these things working together that said, selling the put spreads like the ones he is doing when options premiums are elevated doing so, so it's out of the money, oftentimes, when you do that into catalyst, that can be a winning strategist so for an options strategy perspective. i rather like it, even though i haven't been overwhelmingly enthusiastic about financials. >> let's talk more about that xlf trade you mentioned. we will do an early look b.c that's a treat at the top of the show, mike laid out a bears trade on xlf. the group is down 2.5% since then mike, what are you doing now >> this is an interesting situation. when you put on put suppressed or if you do outrights, the important th

i don't know, watch credit spreads and watch cni loans and there's a million different ways for you to think about where are we going to see the damage show up first, but we do not get out with inflation and that's probably where things are headed and they don't feel they have a choice politically because of how bad the headline risk and that's the borrowing costs have gone up extremely high relative to where they were so, of course, people are hesitant to keep pulling the trigger and announced on the first quarter at a five-year high, as well >> jim is suggesting that you can hang your hat on buybacks because they will continue to come i hear a story being painted here, steph. and i see it through the moves and that's where i want to put the rubber to the road here. pete, freight, we've been discussing that all week jim lebenthal he sells unp, union pacific. peak semis i wondered about that. they don't look great. steph sells nxpi think about that >> peak autos, that's one of the areas we've been talking about, too. josh sells gm. i want to go through each one of those. i want to go t

i highlight that the cni loan growth, look at loans for jpmorgan chase, ex-cluesing the ppp loans, government guaranteed loans the government gave out during the pandemic. loan growth actually decent for jpmorgan again, regional commercial lenders we expect to see loan growth driven by inventory replenishment as well as capital market, or capital expenditures. in terms of the capital market, you're right, sara trading was better should anticipate to see some better maybe trading numbers tomorrow also i say to david's point about cost of funds. the big banks may see higher cost of funds. when you look at regional banks with core deposits grandmother and grandfather accounts we don't see them raising rates quickly, because too many deposits loan to deposit ratio for the industry is very low today we think initially the first 100 basis points of fed fund tightening falls right to the bottom line for many regional banks. not forced to raise their deposit rates at this time >> a number of them are higher today. got strength in first republican bank, for instance schwab, brokers high perp not all f

, 6.5, that is just a gradual uptick and at this point, just a worry of anycny long exposure -- any cniof the euro, are we going to see more dollar strength? dominic: i think so. there is a lot of combinations, but historically, the dollar support is the number-one real yield expectation. it can still fire given aggression by the fred -- it can still -- it can still move higher given the aggressive posture by the fed. it can also down the second half, but who's going to slow down more? if i look at the commodity shock europe is facing, i think europe is going to slow more rapidly. these expectations built into the ecb seem to me to be excessive. still looking at 1.05 is the lower bound in europe. haidi: limit get your views on winners and losers, the aussie dollar, how much further upside is there given we are seeing more expectations for the rba to get more aggressive? at how much more aggressive -- i much more weakness is there the yen -- and how much more weakness is there for the yen? dominic: that has not leveled off. the best currencies to bnr commodities currencies. the move in t