iowa, wisconsin, maybe a colorado or nevada. he's got a take a state in the west and a state in the middle and win ohio, florida and virginia and maybe even up here in new hampshire is now a swing state. the targets are set. he knows his demographics. he's got a problem with college-educated white women. you hard a lot at the convention about that. overall he's just got to break through and take that advantage on the economy from the seven or eight points people say he would be better on the economy up to 12 or 14 points. that's a hard number to move but that's what he got to do. >> rose: does the republican brand hurt him or help him in terms of the new emerging demographics. >> it hurts him. the last two points, maybe the last three between 46 and 49 or maybe up to 50, depending on what the small candidates get to win, are voters who are demographically more of a challenge for us and who tend to like president obama. so mitt's got to close not really with obama bashing. he's got those votes. he's got to get people who like pre

allen is right if you go to florida or pennsylvania or colorado or nevada, amount per vote in those statest of money in texas. he will win it it is a lot of money for a few votes and can turn the tide. >> it is a localized campaign in the state that is mark just mentioned. and so to spend money nationally. texas is red i am in new york it is blumpt new england is going to be blue. that's where the election resides and who arelet undecided people at this point? one wonders how anybody could be undecided? >> there are two ways to be undecided. mart of the mushy middle and nonidea logical. well, i don't like obama but he seeps luke a nice man and romney is businessman. the other undecided voters is the person who decide tod roll the dice with obama four years ago and they would like that one back. those are the folks that fall n. >> and the flip is the undecided vore who like a real conservative and not thrilled with romney. i will stick with what we have got. i don't think romney is the guy that will best look at the right wing. >> let me tell you, do those people exist, yes, they do. just l

iowa, wisconsin, maybe a colorado or nevada.te in the middle and win ohio, florida and virginia and maybe even up here in new hampshire is now a swing state. the targets are set. he knows his demographics. he's got a problem with college-educated white women. you hard a lot at the convention about that. overall he's just got to break through and take that advantage on the economy from the seven or eight points people say he would be better on the economy up to 12 or 14 points. that's a hard number to move but that's what he got to do. >> rose: does the republican brand hurt him or help him in terms of the new emerging demographics. >> it hurts him. the last two points, maybe the last three between 46 and 49 or maybe up to 50, depending on what the small candidates get to win, are voters who are demographically more of a challenge for us and who tend to like president obama. so mitt's got to close not really with obama bashing. he's got those votes. he's got to get people who like president obama but have to feel okay about letti

you could turn off the lights in any number of states whether it be colorado or nevada or virginia orny of those states. the democrats are down in terms of in tuesday as them. next slide. -- enthusiasm. next slide. it is a vote that comes from a feeling. we asked people in their own words of what they think of a barack obama. a lot of human qualities come out. "for the people." "honest." "good job." "health reform." he has a very rounded out profile and one that is positive. on the negative side of things, the economy is overwhelming. then you get the sense of disappointment in terms of incompetent, too much spending, obamacare, liberal socialist. the complaints are all on the professional side. a lot of the good parts are the personal side. next slide. i do a lot of focus groups. i care about focus groups because it is a great way to find out what people are thinking. one of the questions i love to ask people is something that relates to their lives in a personal way. let us take these three candidates. let's suppose they were in the fifth grade. what do you think it would have been

groups do not turn out and you can turn off the lights in any number of states whether it is colorado or nevada or mexico or north carolina or virginia or any of those states. the democrats are down in terms of enthusiasm at this stage of the game. next slide. elections are about not only the. but it is the most personal vote that people make. it is the one that comes from the gut and the feeling. we ask people to tell us in their own words what they think of barack obama. a lot of human qualities come out. for the people, a good speaker, good job he has done. he is intelligent. all those things as well as health reform, foreign policy, immigration, etc.. he has a very rounded profile and one that is positive. next slide please. on the negative side of things you can see the economy is overwhelming, you get the sense of disappointment in terms of incompetent broken promises, too much spending. obamacare, liberal socialism. the complaint with him are all on the -- a lot of the things -- the good parts are the personal side. next slide. how did all of this -- i do a lot of focus groups and i care

and two, he needs new hampshire or pennsylvania or michigan or wisconsin, or iowa, or colorado or new mexico or nevadawins the white house. >> bret: the question is if he doesn't win ohio is there a path feasible for romney to win? >> doable but it's tough. obama is 247 electoral votes. ohio is 265. at which point iowa alone, six electoral votes makes it 271. the ohio goes literally ryan has to take the entire map from there on. he could, there may be one or two states that could go to obama and he would still make it. no, actually, there isn't. >> bret: you have to run the table. >> i have a different view of it. >> bret: not surprising. >> new hampshire and nevada are moving in to tossup status. in two weeks i bet we look at this map and not seven tossup states but eight or nine. we may have one state move out of convention. i believe, north carolina will move out of convention. but there is a way the get there. you don't win ohio, win colorado and wisconsin. or win, colorado, new hampshire. >> bret: it gets tougher. >> it gets tougher. but here is the deal. we are looking at this from governor romn

and two, he needs new hampshire or pennsylvania or michigan or wisconsin, or iowa, or colorado or new mexico or nevada the white house. >> bret: the question is if he doesn't win ohio is there a path feasible for romney to win? >> doable but it's tough. obama is 247 electoral votes. ohio is 265. at which point iowa alone, six electoral votes makes it 271. the ohio goes literally ryan has to take the entire map from there on. he could, there may be one or two states that could go to obama and he would still make it. no, actually, there isn't. >> bret: you have to run the table. >> i have a different view of it. >> bret: not surprising. >> new hampshire and nevada are moving in to tossup status. in two weeks i bet we look at this map and not seven tossup states but eight or nine. we may have one state move out of convention. i believe, north carolina will move out of convention. but there is a way the get there. you don't win ohio, win colorado and wisconsin. or win, colorado, new hampshire. >> bret: it gets tougher. >> it gets tougher. but here is the deal. we are looking at this from governor romney's

you really do not hear a lot of discussion, like colorado or nevada. >> is there going to be an issue for either side? is this something that the romney campaign will try to make an issue of? >> everything ties back to the economy and to the unemployment rate in colorado. call has not been under assault on the western front. governor romney actually went to northwestern colorado to a big coal mine in producing part of the state. energy in the state will tie into anergy overall. >> are there other clean energy technologies that will lead to clean energy is? and as the state see itself as the kind of place where that is born and nurtured it? >> there is a difference between most of the congressional delegation that are advocates of the wind energy tax credit. there is a difference between them on that. >> breaking news, i pretty much agreed. in terms of the cost to the economy is an issue. i do not think it is a stand alone. the one thing that was mentioned was a natural gas and the increasing role is playing in the state. you have seen most of the congressional delegation in both parti

. >> they've either got to do better in latino states going west, arizona -- excuse me, nevada and colorado, or bending states which means reach out into wisconsin or pennsylvania and of course, the all-critical ohio. so they're funding obama's -- they also need to do better with white women. so this convention has got to not be about extra applause in the hall. these are the voters he has for free. it's about reaching through that camera -- >> -- suburban women and the akin stuff. colorado and virginia more races have been won by democrats by reaching out to pro-choice suburban women who want to vote republican on economic issues but more democrats have been able to appeal in those two states on the issue of abortion. that's why akin is a real problem. >> this is a real issue. >> it's a huge issue and something we're all looking at and we're all very, very concerned about it. but i truly believe that the republican party is the party of women. we have been really, really good to women candidates. you look at just governors alone. we've got more women republican governors than we do democrat go

barack obama can hold virginia and hold colorado, he can lose a bunch of other states that he lost in 2008. all he has to do is pick up either new hampshire or nevadaama wins re-election. it's that simple. so colorado has to be a state that mitt romney has to win, and he's really tailoring his message to those suburban independent voters, those soccer moms in the suburbs around denver. he was in golden, colorado, today. and after he talked about aurora, he also talked about this sort of five-point plan what he's going to do if he gets into office, focusing on cutting the the deficit, focusing on schools and education, energy, sort of these, you know, these messages tailored right to the independent voter. look, a lot of republicans have said, in recent weeks, that mitt romney can't just be against barack obama. he's got to outline a plan of his own, so voters have that extra push before they go in the ballot box, are given a reason to vote for mitt romney. and he's really trying to hammer home that message today in colorado. >> let's listen to part of that message. >> i've got to tell you, i can't wait to get to washington. i can't wait to get ther

as i said the other day what counts is what the independent voter in iowa or nevada or colorado turns turns to her husband and says, i think we can live with that guy or he didn't do it for me. that's where it counts. >> and final word, to jeff greenfield before we go to break, and jeff, it's not as if they can't take, as al said, what worked at this convention and use it moving forward, that people are not going to be focusing on this convention so much as how they use these personal stories. >> yeah. in fact, i realize this age, if you're live blogging as i was for yahoo! or tweeting in the middle i actually stopped and said, this is wrong. i mean, you know, oh that line worked great. i give that line a 6.5. nope. it's the next days and weeks. >> yeah. >> jeff greenfield, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> when is your -- >> watching for your columns on yahoo!? >> ebook is coming out september 18th, it will be called "when gore beat bush". >> before he leaves i know he has a commercial break, he's got to tell the story about, you know, all the poverty that everyone invoked. >> it r

even next door in nevada because in that sense, if we can win in nevada or win in colorado, if we can in some of these states, that's just as important as winning here. it just means we've taken our money and put it other places. that's what we get back to where we talk about mobilizing the base. you mobilize the base, get people moving. as they get moving here they'll be able to help others elsewhere. remember, chris, we tend to forget it. national polls dummy things down for us. it's a disservice. the fact of the matter is, it's not one election. it's 51 elections. republicans say we lost this one here but if we can pick up those votes in nevada, pick them up in colorado, we'll be doing a good service to our party. that's why it's important for them to come back energized. >> thank you very much. you can get larry's political insight any time, nbcbayarea.com. just do a little search for prop zero. thanks. >>> the birthday party continues in sunnyvale. they celebrating with a festival at heritage museum. a parade kicked off the whole event yesterday morning. people taking in the fun

fastest growing minority and you see a lot of western states colorado nevada which used to be solid republican are moving in the democratic camp or at least neutral and so that's where oh obama has gotten an advantage on the electoral map the state by state election which is really the key election but it's a slight edge at this point on foreign policy is it seems as if economy. jobs these are the main factors of the elections here about what about foreign policy and do you think the romney has any advantage or writes well if anything i think he has the last advantage he's trying to make a big deal about the iran thing but you know obama killed osama bin laden and here are some of bin laden is bill and number one and you know it took them ten years and george w. bush never got them so that's a feather in his cap here in the united states i think. romney has been very hawkish but people are tired of two wars here they want to get out of these wars so i don't think if anything that's a detriment to him that he's got all these neoconservative hawkish foreign policy advisers foreign policy won't traditionally hasn't played much in u.

colorado nevada ohio, new hampshire, north carolina and florida. the onslaught will continue. is it working? >> oh, beautiful -- >> goldstein says of course. or else the campaigns and superpacs wouldn't be running the ads. the ads are really trying to connect with undecided voters. this november's election will see a smaller pool of undecided voters. and that's why the ads are here to stay. >> we had a pretty hot today today. here's a look at some of the highs this afternoon. up to the triple digits once again. we were just a touch cooler today than yesterday. tomorrow, they'll be a completely different story. saturday, highs ranging from 80 at the bay, all the way to 100-plus. saturday, cooler, 80s and 90s, and cool temperatures overnight, 50s and 60s. but it's going to be hot this weekend in the central valley f. you're heading that way for the -- if you're heading that way for the weekend, know it's going to be pretty toasty. [ male announcer ] now at your neighborhood subway: dinner...is...served. tonight, take it easy and enjoy your favorite soup, salad and hot, hearty sub. like the toasty big hot pastrami melt. get to your local subway

-- colorado nevada iiwa ohio new hampshire virginia north carolina and florida the onslaught of advertising will continue, becoming even more intense. but is it working? goldstein says of course, oraigns and super pacs wouldn't be running the ads. the evidence is, if anything, negative advertisements tend to engage the electorate and/or inform the electorate. an election of course comes down to undecided voters making a decision, but the pool of undecided voters this cycle is small. smaller than it wws in 2008. and that's why it's crucial thht president obama, governor romney and the superpacs supporting them motivate the base and that is who these ads are targeting. brianna keilar, cnnn the white house. -----end-----cnn.script----- coming up in our 6 o'clock hour... barnes and noble is slashing prices on it's nook tablet.how much prices are going down... and when it's rumored a new one will be launched. launched.but first... manny machado is exceeding expectations...the controversy surrounding his latest home run...next in sports. ((break 3)) why don't we play a game of hide and seek? riright n? yeah go hide. one, two... [ son ] come and find me! three! [ male announcer ] bite-s

or pennsylvania. but he does not have to win virginia if he wins colorado and iowa and nevada. as you have seen the president has been campaigning in colorado and taking a three-day tour of iowa later this month. those are important states for mitt romney but he could do without the 13 electoral votes in virginia. >>stuart: can you explain the swing in virginia. three or four weeks ago it was neck and neck. now, it is about four points with the president over mitt romney. anything that you can think of that accounts for the swing toward the president? >>guest: well, one important factor to note for virginia is the state economy, the unemployment rate in virginia is lower than it is nationally. the unemployment rate in virginia is about 5.5 percent which is several points below the national average. virginia has been doing well, even virginia governor has said that the stimulus helped the virginia economy weather the storm so virginia is in better shape than the nation. >>stuart: president obama won virginia by, i thinks seven points, in 2008. now he is four points up. still, it

new hampshire, virginia, north carolina, nevada, colorado, iowa and then win wisconsin or pennsylvaniaue leaning states. it's very tough. this is a risk for the romney campaign. romney not doing well at all among hispanic voters in florida. if the romney campaign can -- if the obama campaign can define paul ryan early on tho medicare issue, tie in to mitt romney, the one-two punch of that medicare question plus romney's troubles with hispanic voters, you could have big problems for republicans in florida in november. >> there was a lot of if he doesn't win florida then this and this and this there. we'll see what happens. do we know if he's taking questions? >> not yet. this is still in the roll out phase. when i covered palin back in 2008, it took a while for them to get to the regular questions from the media. we'll see if there are people in the crowd that want their questions answered. we saw that with mitt romney last summer. >> i'm sure there are people that will shouting their questions. thank you so much. paul ryan is stealing the spotlight. he doesn't have the state of iowa to