economy away from those primary commodities. (soft music) - [narrator] in venezuela, the chavez government began rolling back democratic reforms to combat unrest caused by food shortages and inflation. - the economy has been so mismanaged that you can't even get basic necessities in the grocery store. people have to search to get their days meals. now this is not a matter of lack of money. it is a direct product of mismanagement and we have a government, initially the chavez government now the maduruo government that has been singularly inattentive to public opinion. - venezualan government doesn't accept the term humanitarian crisis because that could be used as a justification for intervention. and the venezuelans are proud very, they do accept at this point that there is massive suffering, not just that there's a political crisis and there's an economic crisis and a security crisis, but there's massive suffering. there's a lot of problems. - the chavez/maduro sequence in venezuela is a classic case. you start spending a lot o

with each specific commodity.bout commodity markets as a risk on, or do you want to look specifically at this material or this material? >> there is always a time when some commodity will perform well and some will perform not well. we try to rotate to those that we think have a better probability of doing well in the future. the commodities space, i do not think we look at it and say, we necessarily want to be in this or that it we have products to make that call, oil and natural gas, but we think people should look broadly at commodities, across sectors, exposed to everything and not just globally , just oil alone or energy alone. there may be better opportunities and benefits there to commodity investing that are not there just by looking at specific sectors. >> do people switch between commodities once they have how commodities performed, an entire different asset classes? >> they talk about oil and gold and tend to know certain commodities and that represents commodities for them, a couple here in there, a fe

prices and commodity sensitive currencies.here, thankng us you for coming on the program. specifically hitting the number s story.lia we have, here saying the company's business, bhp is being elias -- elliott saying it would outweigh the benefits are we will raffles for you. the management in talks with elliott over many, many months, giving feedback to elliott on the challenges that are inherent to that proposal. change inittle australia on shares. a lot more coming up. we will hear from the global head of commodity. he gives us his take on syria and the potential cuts. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: this is "bloomberg markets: middle east." i am david ingles here in hong kong. turning attention back to syria. bloomberg spoke to the local head of commodity research. the follow-up for last week's missile strikes is affecting the oil markets. is bearish move. on the bullish side, there is not much going into the oil arena. on the parricide, given the parties involved, he gives rise to thinking about whether the russian government

where we are seeing action is the commodity space. you're seeing a better big command to the oil trade. -- bid coming into the oil trade. rent crude trading up by around .6 of 1%. wti a similar story. the data is starting to get busier. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. here's juliette saly. juliette: north korea has conducted another ballistic missile test just a day before the first meeting between chinese president she just paying and donald trump. it fell well short of the exclusive economic zone. the launch was a major provocation, shinzo abe said. bigceo made two pronouncements in his annual message to shareholders as the trump administration starts reshaping the government. the u.s. is truly an exceptional country and it is clear that something is wrong. jamie dimon who sits on donald trump's business forum aimed at boosting job growth is voicing support for parts of the president agenda. the on security council will hold an emergency session today after an apparent chemical tilt 68attack in syria people. western le

. >> let's get a check of the commodities futures right now.saw a rally last week, the largest gain on speculation from opec. we are seeing a slight reversal. 1%.down 2/10 of natural gas futures up more than .% >> if you take a closer look at the technical indicators, the long-running dispute in northern iraq is something we are watching closely. that is threatening to disrupt oil outputs. in iraq isa field being disputed by the government. baghdad did in before we get into this part of the story, i want to start with comments from the secretary-general. the secretary-general is a friend of the program and he has been very confident. i am sensing of the bit of caution. right. is you want to say more than you can back up. members are going to extend the deal if they are going to bring down their stockpiles. they have six weeks until they have to make that decision. nevertheless, what he is saying is that stockpiles are starting to be drawn down in that is breaking the market balance. if there is a light at the end of the tunnel, that could make

it doesn't mean commodity prices must go up every year. it means demand is on a structural growth path. >> citi says inflows in evaluations in the commodity sector will rise. you on the other hand point out that enthusiasm for the sector really is not there. there isn't enough liquidity. why do you think that is, even though we are, as you say, in the beginning of the super cycle potentially. >> yeah. the industry, the asset management industry got badly burned by investing in commodities the first time around. partly because of this belief that the super cycle meant ever increasing prices. it doesn't mean that at all. higher prices stimulate investment in supply, which causes what we saw which is a period of surplus. we're at the end of that. the challenge investors have within commodity prices is curve structure. that's a highly negative cost of carry, which makes it difficult to extract returns. so i believe many investors may feel they are better off investing in mining companies and other entities related to commodities and directly t

in the commodity space we have copper timing to a two-week high.ter they slashed output guidance from the impact mine strikes. -- inum at its high shanghai. and curbt pollution output. the commodity story is not just about china. that takesreform shape and that could see the u.s. provide an additional support to industrial metals. commodities are lagging. stocks are out of sync with a u.s. -- from this chart. i am tracking commodity on u.s. yields. -- the treasury yields rising two point -- 2.2%. yousef: let's talk a little bit more about a company that has seen some stronger surges over the past year. for the first time in seven quarters, a have returned profit. there are embarking on a path of acquisitions. bloomberg's tracy alloway is in abu dhabi. . --haven't no shortage of tracy: we have no shortage of things to talk about. it seems to have paid off judging by the results they released yesterday returning to profit after seven quarters. also one of the best-performing stocks on the dubai exchange right now. plenty to get through. chairman, tha

commodities very much in focus.aying they are looking for commodity prices to recover. withmetals continue along commodities. .e do have energy stocks take a look at some of the movers today. this is a gold and nickel miner, since 2013. they will takeng on coal mining in australia. a metal snapping almost 3% today. oversold.may be take a look at the drop in base metals here. we do have an index on bloomberg, posting the biggest loss since september. this over demand. also weighing on this index here. iron ore has plummeted. extending four weeks of losses. take a look at this. of 14% to make it 2017's best economy. while money managers are the most bullish, investors not convinced. money flowing out of the biggest at this point. we have the likes of city and stand chart cautious. betty: thank you so much. kamaruddin in there. now the international monetary fund being discussed. it has raised its outlook for global growth setting up a postelection surge in u.s. confidence. an uptick in global trade. usll the director

blue line is the bloomberg commodity index, a gauge of 23 commodities. they mirror each other.hat is going to give? >> on the way down, you've got two concurrent problems. a slowdown in commodity prices which was partially caused by the change in the opec stance on the oil side and the unexpected resilience of shale oil. you have a combination affect pretty much from the start of 2016, where you start to get the better news out of china. so the growth site is announcing its normal policy. for me that is one of the biggest things to change as well as the adjustment in those countries that needed to adjust to a term of trade shock like a big fall in the commodity price. when you see now is people getting comfortable in the tail risks around some of those commodity producers, such as russia for example. at the same time there is the big buyer commodities. china has also dissipated them so that gives confidence to the emerging-market complex. when you think about it that way you've asked the october conference with china. they will be keen not to have a hiccup between now and then

i will never forget how oil commodityings went up to 1$120 barrel. only after that insane rally did we find out that oil skyrocketed because a couple of hedge funds got caught because they were selling oil short, meaning they were selling against it, and they had to pay for their stockless, and after that huge run, oil fell almost in a straight line to $33 a barrel. when it was rallying, they had to capitulate, and sell almost anything to raise cash, it was the mirror images of what happened when it went higher. the most common mistake you can make today is commodities that are selling at a certain level. when i first started trading, we measured the stocks by the underlying company. what it might be worth to an inquirer. are its products selling well, does it make a lot of money off of what it says. but then the market in its infinite which is come, everybody started to lump stocks together in gigantic baskets in the 1980s. we lumped all stocks together in asset class, and they started to trade together in lock step whether the company was good or b

quick look at commodities. shows you the picture today in terms of what you are seeing in the gulf space -- gold space. it is showing in 3/10 of 1%. bit of aseen a little fallback by oil holding onto those losses from yesterday's session. the south african rand is seeing more losses after a ratings cut by s&p global ratings triggered a big fight on monday. that was the first blow. things could get worse. country'sower the credit rating and is reviewing that decision. just to get you up to speed, key function to show you what has been happening in terms of it creditor bond spots. you can see how that has been closing in on brazil. 2028,is also pressure on south african euro bond. let's cross over to south africa. what are the implications here? the markets punish the currency severely. investment att in credit ratings downgrade is something that south africa has been trying to save her we know the former finance minister lit a complaint, including business labor to meet with greater agencies, rather than investo

for commodities in general. so we're actually quite optimistic that the commodity complex will do reasonably well as growth is picking up. the problem is we're talking about commodity prices increasing fairly moderately. if you look at australia and canada, the local central banks are not in a position to be competing or not even anywhere close to leading what's going on with the fed. because interest rates are so important from a currency point of view, we think they're not going to inform that impressively. we think they do just fine, probably about neutral versus the dollar, as the dollar is genuinely strong versus euro, but we don't pick those as stand-out performers. we would rather trade the commodities themselves and in particular the energy sector rather than the commodity currencies. >> joe, let's talk about the french presidential elections. only a few weeks left really. a lot of people thought that trading the euro would be the main sort of catalyst or the main sort of means to trade around the french

commodities were under pressure. there are some bright spots. commodities 3.1%. the weaker u.s.ollar is feeding into this. >> a quick check on what is going on in the markets. 225, up.i the yen also getting a bout of euro bashing. looking at the shanghai composite, of course. this time it is more speculation .bout a leverage crackdown there could be restrictions put on changing. people are looking to get out of this market. well. to the upside, as and look att along what is going on elsewhere. that is the u.s. 10 year yield. cold at the biggest fall within three months. we have recovered somewhat from that. 0.33%.k of that is from the following the election of the establishment parties not included in the final round of the french election. headlines. -- and outline of its tax plan this week. the specifics may not be ready until june. president trump tyler nase twitter follows that a tax reduction will be announced on wednesday. mick mulvaney says they will lay out the principles but it needed the plan will not be ready for a couple of months. the ecb may be ready to move to exi

jonathan: coming up, insight in commodity. global head of commodities research.bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: you are watching bloomberg daybreak. i'm jonathan ferro. nowhere.ost down by almost 10 points, not even 1/10 of 1%. after a couple of days of gains, if you switch of the board of 230 yesterday for the first time in two weeks, we are unchanged today on the 10 year. the euro a little softer on the four-day winning streak. zero .28%. the top. you >> president trump says -- in the supreme court. ordereliminary court blocking the edict that give save hardest one documented immigrants. circuital by the ninth court of appeals will restore the president's travel ban. the military in china has launched its first ethically built bluewater navy, capable of going well beyond china. in the u.k., prime minister theresa may faced off during the prime minister passes question time for the last time before. >> every vote for him is a vote proppedalition of chaos up by limerick -- liberal democrats. is a vote for me strong and stable leadership in the national interest, building a

and soft commodity nas we have. they are benefits from that sweet spot in the global economy. >> edwin, thank you very much. quick comment on china? a viewer wants to know your thought on the strength of the chinese economy. >> sure. that is the commodity sweet spot. it's a reflection of that cyclical upswing we're seeing. the consensus view is that china looks okay for 2017. they have a key political event in october, and it's very much in the state council and the leadership in china's interest to keep things on a friendly, even keel. as we know, china has substantial issues it needs to deal with. they're putting that off. 2018 could be a much more challenging year for china. >> edwin, we've got to go. thank you very much. edwin gutierrez. have a lovely day. we'll talk soon again. we need to take a break. check out world markets live, it's our blog that runs throughout the entire day. on the other side of the break, lots more for you, talking political risk, the latest on france and m&a as well. >>> welcome back.

assets have been rallying even before that despite commodities and political risk.following the trend for us. she is in abu dhabi. walk us through the price action we have seen recently. >> i was focused on the polish zloty, a handful that rally yesterday for fairly obvious reasons in the french election. took.m. currency rally place outside the region. the mexican peso climbing 1.6%. south african rand against the dollar and the turkish lira up 1.5%. msci emerging market index is actually up almost 20% year to date which is a funding -- stunning performance since we have headwinds with polo -- geopolitical risk on the rise. also the commodities route and traditionally declining prices would be a negative but investors seem to have looks past all of that. guy: how long does that last? you have seen a divergence between currencies and that is the line here. this is the commodity index down here. at some points that need to come back together, doesn't it? a lot of people, or currencies come down. >> that is the very, very big question currently mulling over. anycan ta

oil andturning now to commodities in general. barrel of wti is trading below $49, just above it, in fact. conflicting signs on whether u.s. stockpiles are retreating. we will get fresh inventory in a few minutes. but joining us now to share his outlook is michael haigh. generale.te it feels strange be talking about anything other than tax reform. let's begin there. we are looking at infrastructure . most important thing for the commodities market to be focused on right now? the relief on the banks of it not being imposed -- if it was imposed, what that would have meant with meeting overseas oil and domestic oil, would have lifted atlantic-based prices and would have lifted domestic prices. that is off the table now so that uncertainty is removed. the specific thing that oil vonnie: we are down today. opec has cut 1.2 million barrels. we do expect that to continue. but the battle is with the resilient shell production coming back -- would be resilient shale production coming back. people are hedging their production. you have opec

the commodity cycle is coming back now, which is white investors are returning to commodities -- whichs why investors are returning to commodities stop aluminum, especially. we did a story in the middle east a couple of weeks ago. nothing at a 3 billion ipo. companies are thinking the commodity cycle has been dead for so long, investors are looking at as again, why don't we try ipo's? if you're going to do an ipo in the sector, london is the place to be. nejra: interesting. ofhink this was another one your stories. we love having you on. volumesipo's in london, were lower in the first quarter. was that because of brexit? >> they were the lowest since the first quarter of 2012. european union was talking about whether greece would exit. the same concerns are there, but if you still look at london as opposed to the rest of europe, they were the highest in europe. even inre in europe or emea and looking for a market the has the volume that has depth, you're going to come to london, which is why theresa may is in saudi arabia. you,: i was going to ask because we have theresa may in saudi a

>> exact reply. >> we're not worried about it in commodities. why?ause commodities depend on activity level, not growth rate, meaning the level of demand above the level of supply distresses the system. not a question about growth rates. >> u.s. yield is getting hurlt. is that all temporary infrastructure issue, are those supposed to rebound as well in your view? >> we think when we look at the farris complex two drivers going on there. one, we had a substantial -- >> did you stay -- >> steel, iron, ore. >> not a ferris wheel. >> yes. they're made out of ferrous. the two big dynamics are about china slowing down, but the other one is we had substantial destocking. remember, these markets rallied more than any other market at the beginning of the year. >> true, they were ripping and now correcting a little bit. jeff, thank you so much. jeff currie with goldman. phil, what now? >> reporter: kelly, no sooner did i tell you what, just about ten minutes ago, we have not heard from david dow or his representatives today. we have heard in a sense. there has

oliver: still ahead, the commodities why zinc is falling after being a standout commodity performer lastr. that's still ahead, the commodities close. ♪ i've spent my life planting a size-six, non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. wifi pro from comcast business. public wifi for your customers. private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. abigail: from bloomberg world headquarters, this is "bloomberg markets." com

the possible dumping of commodities into the u.s.. the u.s.ials, the trump administration is considering an executive order that would call for review of whether foreign companies are selling deal and aluminum in the u.s. to undercut competition. joining us is shannon pettypiece in d.c.. let's start with shannon to get the lowdown on the executive order here. say exactly does it specifically? when could it be rolled out? shannon: everything is still very fluid at this time and in the discussion phases. we are more like weeks away then days away from having anything firm and concrete that the president will sign. the general thrust would be to direct the u.s. to investigate, to review trade practices, these so-called dumping violations taking place in commodities. what does dumping mean exactly? what are we talking about really? >> another country is selling this to and aluminum at a lower price than what the market is typically offering. julie: how can they do that? >> people will buy it. >> i am thinking of a trash heap of aluminum. the only

let's look at commodities. per of course, we had comments from the opec secretary-general over the weekend saying that production cuts are breathing balance to the market. some good moves coming through and other commodities. bonds also big today except for japan. i also want to show you some of the stocks we are watching. toshiba will be discussed in more detail present, down in the japanese session, falling after meet aignal they may not deadline to release results for 2016. the market has been hoping that toshiba would come through after they filed for bankruptcy and announced plans to sell its memory chip business to pay the debt. looking at the energy players, very well in the hong kong session. they are coming off in australia. last week, it was at a two-year high. that is one market coming under the bit of pressure today. let's get to first world news in hong kong. >> china's central bank raising interest rates for loans aimed at medium-size financial institutions. the pboc -- 20 basis points. the stable

it is a proper commodities market. in the old days if you wanted to shoot down an oil-producing platform sale, it was a big expensive long-term job. with shale it is almost a manufacturing process. problem for people who use rapid response times. the physical market is acting like a trade market. the andup the data out the fact u.s. oil production is as strong as it is. into this next meeting they need to think bigger, think more aggressively. not just extend the agreement, increase it, take out more oil. is that going to be an option? corrects the problem is the free ride. you take some oil out of the system and the price will rise a little bit. the real issue is you have the u.s. not in opec but it has russia. will it respond? there are all sorts of issues here. the background is the budget restraints on all of these big oil-producing countries, they have big social expenditures and the oil price is a problem for them. the oil production how do you fund the deficit? and the incentive to cheat. >> we spoke about how t

columbia making an effort to diversify its economy away from commodities, the south american nation havingccess? we will speak to the incoming codirector of their central bank. let's look at where european equities are trading right now. and a 30 minutes until the close with a lift in european shares, ,he stoxx 600 up to 3/10 of 1% outperforming our commodity producers and oil, and gas shares. stoxx 600 energy shares heading for the highest close since january. tracking what we have seen with oil price. earlier, wti and brent almost 1.5%, those gains have moderated a little since we got the oil inventory data but still fairly resilient. i want to show you this technical chart on brent crude, the global benchmark. it closed above the upper band technical indicator for the first time this year. this is generally viewed as a buy signal. something to keep an eye on as we continue to the week and see if we can maintain the resilient in the oil price. read above $55 per barrel earlier in the session. , one stocksyngenta we are focused on in the european trade with 10 china when he eu antitrust a

>> for commodity prices we have seen a general recovery in prices.aining very low to where they were a few years back, but they haven't moved up. our reading of the reason is primarily that there are signs that global demand is strengthening. industrial demand and production are picking up, global trade is picking up. of course there are some other of different commodities for oil prices and the opec agreement put some restriction on supplies. it is a bit of a variety of factors at play. i was say wemarket see a lot of differentiation. generaly importers in are doing quite well. that is the case for a lot of economies in asia. commodity exporters are still reeling from the big decline in prices over the past few years. that was the deputy director of the imf talking about the new growth forecast. here in the region their earnings results are coming in. we have emirates nbd porting first quarter profits. it was better than expectations of 1.7 9 billion total income. it was better than the expected best slightly smaller than that 3.8 6 billion. we will

steve is having a look at this moderation down to commodity price gains.'s put this into context, 4.5 years of deflation. this is a continuation of the deflation story. it is expected to have moderated. there is some face effect on year-over-year numbers, but also a slight moderation and commodity price gains we saw in march. 7.8% rise in ppi in february, the highest since september 2008. this month, march, we are expecting it to moderate a bit. rishaad: we have this great #3416, talking about this decoupling between cpi and ppi. >> cpi is extremely benign. you would think the manufactures have pricing power and that they will pass it along to the consumer space. inflation is food and energy, and energy prices so capped by the government, there is not a direct pass through to cpi, and cpi is benign, 0.8% in february distorted because of the , but the survey from march when the aberration starts working off, it is still just 1% growth in cpi, so basically the pboc can sit on their hands and let the economy do what it is doing. reflation at the factory gate

in terms of losers, commodity currencies.ng the australian dollar and the south african rand there at the bottom. let -- let us look at the mid-cap movers. nejra: starting with a stock that has hit a record high in this session. galapagos. it is a biotech company. up 4.3%. moving on reports of it launching a proposed share offering. that is why we are seeing that move today. as zeno is down 0.3%. reported the first revenue declined in two years. in france, nonfood sales face more competition with e-commerce. latin america compensated a bit for those numbers. we are seeing these shores move lower, down 3.8 percent. i put pandora here because it is the worst performer on the stoxx 600. down 6.2%. i dug around frantically for headlines. i cannot work out why it is moving so much. it is getting a lot of traction r but not a lot of headlines out. manus: there you go. needs to head out and get some more jewelry. let us focus in on what could move today. talking about the u.s. banks. bank of america, goldman sachs and morgan stanley

, trying to figure out if foreign companies are unfairly dumping these commodities into u.s.ket strength to undercut u.s. companies. it sounds like they are talking about it behind the scenes, something wilbur ross is spearheading as well as various , wanting to do more about what donald trump talked about on the campaign trail, addressing unfair trade practices. could wondering if you speak about cecile. 21st at 25% of the u.s. market is accounted for for imported steel, it's china, south korea, taiwan, japan. having ae than just conversation with xi jinping, the president of china. jennifer: as you know there was not much of a breakthrough on trade when they met mar-a-lago. this would be investigations into the product individually. they would look at the steel market, the alumina markets, but you are right, steel is a major focus. it would be looking at a whole kind of different country than china, across the board. >> there was a letter actually the other week sent by senate democrats who are pushing for the administration to do that. i think ist interesting. there is no

in the commodities space we do see the commodity index headed for the longest losing streak since therch. we do have oil rising after six straight days of losses. iron or continuing to slump. i want to look at how futures are panning out so far. taking a look at this last column. we do have u.s. futures looking slightly weaker. take a look at the full screen, you have to ask a high makes inixing is written --h training down .6%. commodity -- komatsu gaining thanks to a rebound it's on asian sales. that gives you a sense of how the earnings picture is faring so far. betty. betty: thank you so much. let's get to the first word news. details a president trump's tax plans are emerging. the white house says he will call for individual rates with the corporate tax coming down to 15%. further details are due on wednesday. the final proposal is not expected until june. the release will come as the white house and congressional leaders work on a spending deal to avoid a partial government shutdown. the president is ready to slap a 20% tariff on products from canada. the latest move in a trade

commodities executive editor next. bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to the european market open. the sun has come out over berlin and the dax is in positive territory. we are seeing gains in london, although the cac is a little softer. a rich a hitch has your movers. startinge stock i'm with is on the small cap side but we include that in our mid-cap coverage. i am talking about staffer group. adhesive films and the shares have hit a record high. i thought it was with sharing up .8%. so ans came ahead of views pretty strong performer today. on the downside, and recruitment committee, off by .7%. hayes said conditions remain good in the vast majority of markets. it has delivered a net performance, but despite positive rumblings coming from the company, the share price of little underwhelming. we are seeing it off my .8%. perhaps something making shareholders uncomfortable. in terms of royal mail, we are seeing cummins -- comments on the pension plan. currentable in its form, no a portable solution to keeping the pension

and the energy and commodity price is part of it.omberg's executive editor of global events who was at the event. give us your take on how his sentiment and the out be -- data? matches with the >> it is entirely consistent. the deputy governor -- [please stand by] data? he emphasized two things. one, the overall world environment is smaller -- stronger than a year ago, which is helping china as us. he also emphasized this is not your grandfather's china's economy. they now account for more than half of gdp. a very different landscape from five or 10 years ago. they began opening china's economy in the late 1970's, we had peter manufacturing operations and caricatured. people with talk about sweatshops. that is not happening anymore. that is one of the things the governor emphasized. it is a maturing chinese economy and the transition everyone said they wanted is now happening. scarlet: but they will point to the excessive debt buildup. how will that look when they finally come home? did he address it at all? >> it is a constant theme

we saw this really spectacular run ups when it comes to commodities trading.is still -- is it still largely driven by retail, or is the influence starting to come up? the institutional influence is increasing, but the trading activity at the moment is concentrated in the hands of the retail investors. one of the problems with china is the lack of products. in the exchange stays, i see a significant expansion of product offerings. given the capital restrictions, i see more global related products being lifted within china. that is a major innovation. i think after 2015 market correction,, people are becoming more a well -- aware of the projection. it's a long road, but it is happening. onhaad: i want you to put your hat as the former head of strategy at the london stock exchange. it looks like the deutsche bus deal is in the water. where does that leave them? >> it was seen by many as a scaling up exercise. business is still strong, particularly index business, and they are looking more toward china. looking at more than an alliance? >> generally the exchanges

mental prices, commodity prices in general are important for emerging-market assets. on the effects of collapsing commodity prices on emerging markets in 2014 and 2015, but when it comes to commodity price, i think asset allocation within emerging markets becomes important. this is part of the reason why we are extremely comfortable with emerging-market hard currency bids denominated in u.s. dollars. at the point of external shock to em, be it commodity prices, or protectionist policies like from donald trump, what we would like to see in return is weakness on em currencies. but the weakness on em currencies make emerging-market countries very competitive in exports. it makes current account deficits shrink. that is positive for fundamentals, and dollar denominated in this environment we think we continue to do well, . even big oil exporters like russia, we remain very comfortable on dollar denominated debts. haidi: i find it interesting, you're call to basically say that we need to get over the fear of the fact because fed, tightening is indicating strength when it c

dollar strength and commodity strength.een a number of factors to strongerpportive currency outside of the united date. the euro, the end of the election coming. we saw stronger demand growth in china and in the gdp numbers. factors, we think, once we get the french elections out of the way and we start to see more comfort in the european zone coming through, that in itself euro zoneurage the strengthen, ultimately leading to higher demand growth in europe. a slightly weaker dollar versus the euro. there are a number of factors that could ultimately drive oil prices higher. we think oil could touch $70 by the end of june. yousef: that is a perfect points to pick up on us far as the ramifications, impacts, and what this means for your equity calls. what is happening in the united -- what ifes, you your talk calls for the middle east and north africa. research,is of your abu dhabi commercial has priced the earnings. talk us through your thinking. >> this is a call we have been pushing since november 2016. some of the factors

you have the bloomberg commodity index.nt commodities behave differently. , down,bottom, energy year to date. the purple line at the top, precious metals. which i want to focus on is the metals again. thel up slightly from start of the year. at one point they were up 11% 2%. to date, now, just up for me, this is a story to watch. these industrial metals declining is interesting. scarlet: certainly a reflection of what is going on in china as well. breaking news. american express reporting results. thatue is higher anticipated. $7.9 billion was the reported number. you can see the stock reporting now. it had gained as much as 3.2%. perhaps more importantly, american express reaffirming the full year views. american express, as we know, under some pressure, certainly seeing the likes of jp morgan and the chase credit card take some higher and cards away with the sapphire card. about csx, the rail and transport company. offortably ahead expectations. coming in nicely ahead of expectations. we see the company is taking a restru

coming up, bank of america merrill lynch head of global commodities.bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: you are watching bloomberg daybreak. i am jonathan ferro. futures are firmer this morning come up 6-7 points, positive 35 on the dow. breaking data in the u.s., treasuries on the march, yields up a basis point. , 1.28.le rate , an upsidec data surprise, marginal. thuman read on the labor market, softer. jobless claims, multi-decade low, back to the 1970's for these numbers. , downsidess outlook surprise, 22 dead, we were looking for 25.5. alix: new orders getting hammered in that philly fed survey. now the survey data is starting to rollover. datanarrative of the hard was going to pick up perhaps now changing. heart we were hoping the would come up to the soft. with the still is emmanuel macron --ken langone. let's talk about the job situation in the united states. we have been creating jobs month after month, and yet donald trump says we have a real problem with jobs in the country. how can both those things be true? >> there are jobs, then jobs. people need job

in other words, gas is becoming a global commodity and it will be treated like a global commodity pre-much like oil is. you do not ask for 20 years when you want to build a refinery. riskat basis, you take the of whether you want to invest or not. the gas market will become pivotal. fundamentally, what you have to look at is being a low cost , from what the united states is competitive for, the facility which we are good at building, and the shipping. you have to look at everything and in that kind of circumstance, the business model follows. the banks will come an investment will come. alix: how do you undercut should undercut on price? you want to provide fixed contracts, you mentioned that for japan for a five-year contract. how do you undercut? how do you do that? charif: the first place we can improve on cheniere, we think we driftwood at about $600 per ton, a little more expensive and a little bit better. months of work, i read right in the middle between the two projects. that is consistent with where we should be. it was started only two years ago, lessons learned, we have been abl

speaking of commodities, gold up.t is driving a rally in precious metals and we could be 1300 inside for bullion here. oil spiking, wti up over $52 per barrel. brent reaching the $56 level. gains saying price may prove temporary given that a significantnger oil producer. taking a look at about a look at the broader forks market, japanese yen no surprise, leading gains. forex market, japanese yen no surprise leading gains. along with the lira, the russian ruble and the korean won, they are the most sensitive to the u.s. strike. yen trader is taking a cautious stance on the won considering the talks between trump and she. it will send a piercing message to pyongyang that there are consequences if they were to mess up. more persistent reaction for currencies like the won. shery: thank you so much. we have the latest, breaking lines out of russia. russian senators saying the u.s. provides for men to assign blame. those were the gas attack that killed a scourge of people just two days ago. we are hearing now from a russian

any commodities tied to the dollar makes those commodities more expensive to buy.hat will drive down the price of oil as well. with the rate change the ecb helping that is really fuel the price downward in oil. i would look for 45. that is next place i would jump in and he a buyer. mark: great to see you, scott barr. another four dollars a barrel of a drop. time for the latest bloomberg business flash. american airlines is strengthening its grip after a two-year slump. revenue for each seat flown per mile will increase this quarter and that will be the third straight quarterly gain. it's just in time for american airlines to cope with rising costs from higher wages and fuel prices. plastic sales rose 21% in the first quarter. after its historic merger with dupont. regulators approved the deal last month. that's your latest bloomberg business flash. mark: still ahead, earnings reports pouring down today. we will look at some of the biggest movers in the early u.s. session. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: this is bloomberg markets. i'm mark barton. vonnie: i'm vonnie quin

a decenthaving session, but currencies commodities, a lot of event risks.e a look at my bloomberg. it is #7629 on your bloomberg. , the benchmark across asia, still close to 2015 highs, but the box top right, things starting to rollover. indicator, monetary conditions in china, something to watch, key inflation data out of china and new credit data as well. you have a rate decision out of south korea. let's look at south korea -- south africa. gr on your bloomberg. watch south africa very closely. downgrades,atings s&p and fitch, last week. they are saying you have to watch out for more outflows as people are forced to pay back their positions if you are investment hold grade. south africa won't be one of them. we saw the bonds and the brand getting hammered -- and the rand getting hammered. we are 30 minutes away from the open in china and hong kong, singapore, taiwan, and malaysia have just come online. give us the lowdown. asian markets waking up to that weaker jobs report out of the united states on friday, although some event risks this week. shar

eric and gary cohn, they were both commodities traders. i think gary is enjoying this moment and this job. he has, he seized it. you saw today as he walked up to the podium, before he walked up to the podium, i don't know if we he video, he was suppressing a smile. he knows what he has done. >> he just ate two pounds of raw meat before he went out there. gary cohn is vicious inside fighter. >> what do the hedge funds think about the plan? >> the tax cut? >> yeah. carried interest was not mentioned, elimination of carried interest. >> it wasn't specifically mentioned but if you listen to what cohn and mnuchin said today, they said every deduction will be, is not going to be agreed to. every deduction is out except two. mortgage and charitable. so that, i'm assuming is out. so gary cohn, by the way, a lot of -- liz: then they get to participate, maybe, in a lower capital gains rate which they wanted to bring back down to 20%. >> yes, that is what they're going to do. listen, this is a great tax plan. it is odd that, that steve mnuchin and ga

commodity prices as far as the u.s.utlook still expecting 2.3% growth this year, but they do say that the outlook has improved, and they cited fiscal assumed fiscal policy easing and an uptick in confidence after the november u.s. collection. they do cite some downsite risk to pay attention to for the u.s. imf warning faster interest rate hikes in the u.s. could pose a risk to the recovery and aggressive rollback of financial regulation. they warn against that as well, guys. but imf predicting pretty solid growth, 2017 and 2018 forecast boosted for china, and for a number of advanced economies, including the euro area, including many euro countries, japan, and the united kingdom. so for once not coming out with a pessimistic jut look for the global economy. that's what i would say is the big head line. >> are they any good at forecasting? >> not great, but they do update their forecast pretty frequently and they are good at analyzing some of the policy risks, monetary and fiscal and what the impa kt is going to be. it's

the stocks, the actual commodity. but i have been negative on krudz and crude stocks, feeling at the saudi aramco potential ipo has been a real setup. it's the biggest head fake for me. because every analyst, every buy side is looking to get a piece of it. every sell side is looking to buy into that event. it's setting up literally for a perfect storm. i'm negative. there can be the market and crude but i do believe that it's time to take profits for everything that you just mentioned. i do believe that tax policy has taken a little bit too long. i believe that gdp. we thought those kroger policies were going to spark it are on hold. so i do believe it's time to take some profits. >> i look at crude oil, i actually look at brent. i think it's universal, i think you have a dynamic here, every time you get a bad inventory number. i think there could be fall tomorrow. i think technically oil there is a dynamic here. carter will talk about it. i will say this. i think we're at a playful position in oil. it's very differ t

-- raw materialsls commodities they c could export.t's a very harmful -- it's not only not a successful, it's a harmful development model, because when you export grain to chinina, let's say they export , manufacturing goods to you, and that undermines your manufacturing industries. and that is pretty much what has been happening. on top of that, there was just enormous corruption. it is just -- it's painful to see the workers party in brazil, which did carry out significant measures, just -- they just could not keep their hands out of the till. they joined the extremely corrupt elite, which is robbing all the time, and took part in it as well and discredited , themselves. and there is a reaction. i don't think the game is over by any means. there were real successes achieved, and i think a lot of those will be sustained. but there is a regression. they will have to pick up again with, one hopes, more honest forces that won't be -- that will, first of all, recognize the need to develop the economy in a way which has a solid foundation.

pulled down in part because of falling commodity prices. next guest is known for his views on chinese markets, he is a chief strategist. he anticipated 2015, boom and bust in stocks. always great to see you. we have seen chinese markets have rebounded well since the devaluation back then. to get ine right time and jump into the markets, or is it too late? guest: probably not. it has risen quite a bit, especially the hong kong market. are usinggn investors hong kong, putting money in china. what we are seeing is the tpi, which, that data will be released today, that is peaking. but it is still pretty weak. that tells us demand is pretty weak. time, ite same produces margins that are squeezed. now, it is for rising for a couple of months. much of the good news is that it has been priced in. with geopolitics and tensions rising, it would be difficult to be bullish on asian markets, including china. comes to least when it different scenes within the chinese stock market, would you say there are bargains out there? we have a chart on the bloombe

blue, commodity prices has been trending lower.hat is to come across markets in asia. we are going to be watching shares of china mobile when hong kong opens after profit rose for the first time in three quarters. here is bloomberg intelligence analyst, michelle mob. is this momentum going to continue as 4g matures for the rest of the year? michelle: i think overall, china mobile did report profit growth for the first quarter, mainly driven by the 4g consumption. however, we do think china 's profit growth will slow down for the rest of the year. first, because the 4g continues to mature and china mobile has the highest 4g concentration of 6% at the end of the first quarter. and the intensity of the competition. smaller rivals have improved their 4g network quality significantly in the last year and they are spending more on marketing to gain subscribers. that will pressure china mobile's margins going forward. and thirdly, deregulation. the chinese government has ordered all three telecom carriers to reduce tariff price. that will

oliver: with this lithium rush, you profile a couple of commodity chasers.n interesting guy. tell us about who he is and how he got involved in lithium. >> he is a real character. he is a geologist. he has been chasing commodities as around north america for 50 years, silver, copper, uranium, a years, silver, copper, uranium, gold. he told me about how he was mining silver and led in arizona when the hunts were cornering the silver market and he thought he would never have to work a day again in his life because loads he was selling for five dollars went up to $25, but they failed in that effort and the price went back down, so he had been mining uranium in utah 7-8 years ago, and the price of uranium went down, so he started looking around for what might be next. he was one of the earliest people to recognize the coming demand from electric cars and battery storage, and so he looked for lithium and clayton valley is the only place in north america where it is being produced. he lay down 24,000 acres of claims under the general mining act and sat around and