at the congressional budget office at the congressional budget office i would be what they would call it senior staffer over principle analysts off a national economists in the seals the national analysis to the ok and as a congressional senior staffer of financial economists there your initial responsibilities as i understand them were to write a brief to congress on this day the foreclosure crisis and the alternative policy options in that crisis as well as cover banking and housing now when you presented this opinion to your supervisors specifically the c.b.o.t. chief economist and assistant director dr deborah look at what was her response. well i i at the time when i was writing the foreclosure grid to congress and also internal memos on the banking and mortgage sector that would help to provide input into the macro economic forecast for the country at that time the rebels lining up for closure of fraud issues emerged and i wrote about that and dr lucas the chief economist told me that it was an issue of media sensationalism and discouraged me from writing about it. in response t

so, if i were in his position, i would, i think, use the congressional budget office numbers saying my deficit, my plan, increased the debt and say that you know, no responsible president can pretend that an independent analysis of these numbers don't matter. that i think is best avenue back into the real world. >> you think it's possible for him to enlist and activate the moderate republicans like your friend in new york who is going to vote for him and put together a group around the country that can make a big public statement about what is necessary, a, to get him elected and get the country back on the right track, or has the -- in both cases both parties been taken over by the more dogmatic sense on the left and the right. >> for one thing, you know, that's just not true. there have been two different independent analysis in the last couple of months about this. they said if you believe there was a center, let's say in my second term, that in the senate the republicans moved three times as far away from that center as the democrats have. but in the house they moved 12 times as fa

the nonpartisan congressional budget office issued a dire warning to the federal government. tax breaks are allowed to expire and certain scheduled spending cuts become reality, another recession is a very real possibility. even as americans are still feeling the pimple from the last one, chief national correspondent jim angle has the numbers and what they mean. >> the congressional budget office is predicting the economy will slink if several large tax cuts are allowed to expire at the end of the year. the cbo said that along with new spending cuts would hamer the economy. >> bottom line here they are predicted we will have another recession in the first half of 2013. >> the cbo predicts economic growth would slink by 1.3% a would only grow half a percent for the entire year. far less than even the slow growth since president obama took office. >> money is sucked out of the private sector by increased taxes. the government is taking that money out of the private sector which then cannot raise the capital to invest it in job creation. >> all the bush tax cut as well as other

now, the president's budget which is before the congressional budget office, and is not, i might add, the thing that they voted on in the senate, the president's budget would cut $4 trillion in a balanced way, with some new revenue. >>chris: sir, let me bring in congressman ryan. >> first of all, this promise to cut deficit in half over his first term, that is one of the biggest promise breaks he made. second, the congressional budget office did look at president's budget and it has $400 billion of deficit reduction over 10 years. an average of $40 billion of it will deficit reduction in the president's budget. that is according to the c.b.o., $1.45 trillion increase. it does not come close to fixing our problem. but more to the point, chris, the president has had four years it deal with this. $4 trillion deficit. four times he decided to do nothing to get the debt under control and he did disavow simpson-bowles and i didn't vote for it because it did not deal with health care entitlement reform. and the president has yet to propose a bill to fix this problem. >> that is affectually n

one of the real draw backs to doing all this stuff is the way frankly the congressional budget office and the joint tax committee comes out on some of these issues. i really do think there's got to be some latitude in the congress on using their estimates as gospel in all of these questions. i just -- we're never going to get to where we need to go on a lot of both the spending and the tax questions if we take a very strict view of what's going to happen in the budget. let me give you an example. in the mid '90s when bill clinton was president we did major changes in medicare. and as i remember cbo gave us a number that we all thought was too low. we went ahead and passed the bill in a bipartisan way. and if i'm not mistaken the outcome was more like what we thought it was going to be than what the congressional budget office thought it was going to be. and you know, at some point, i know it's hard to analyze it, i think congress has got to start looking back on some of the estimates that come from these bodies and you know, use their judgment a little bit to try to make some of these

the congressional budget office did look at the president's budget and it has $400 billion of deficit reduction over years.aturten it absolutely. that is quoted as cbo. $1.5 million in net spending increases. [ overlapping speakers ] for $400 billion of deficit reduction. doesn't even come close to fixing the problem. more to the point, chris, the president has had four years to deal with this. $4 trillion deficits. four times he decided to do nothing about the debt crisis. the reason i didn't vote for bowles simpson is it didn't deal with healthcare entitlement reform the drivers of our debt. i put out an alternative plan and said here is what i would do to fix this problem and prevent a debt crisis. that is what house republicans proposed. the president has yet to propose to fix the problem. the senate hasn't voted for three years on anything. >> that is factually not the case. a, i would refer. >> that is according to the cbo. >> congressional budget office website, go to look for yourself. the fundamental choice here is the president putting forward an approach that says let's add

i cannot remember the last time the congressional budget office predicted a recession.m to do so is really quite an extraordinary moment. the second thing is that they said two things. they said it would be a good idea to avoid the fiscal cliff and a recession but they also said it would be good to avoid the cliff and take care of our long-term debt problems. that leaves us with number three which is the state of play and the house has, in fact, passed legislation to substitute the sequester and they will pass an extension of the bush tax cuts and they've passed a budget which takes care of the debt, but on the democratic side in the senate, there's zip, zero, nada, and so far the president has been silent as well. from where i sit, we really need presidential leadership on this, and the truth is all hands may get forced because if investors start looking and seeing their tax rates go from 15% to 44% on dividends, they're not going to wait for january to declare a problem. we're going it start to see it in the economy quickly, and that's bad for all incumbents, house, s

that was according to the congressional budget office.dress the doubling of student loan interest rates that was on the horizon, congress and the president spent a portion of that money to help pay for the health care law. simply amazing. it's just one more example of a government that claims to know best when their only remedy is to rob from peter to pay paul. sadly, the misguided government solution we will vote on today will be counterproductive for our job creators, for our economy, and for our nation's job seekers, or soon-to-be graduates. but don't take my word for it. there is a long, long list of organizations representing millions of employers and hardworking employees sounding an alarm over the tax increase being proposed in the bill we vote on today. they are the people who build our homes, fix our air conditioners, run the corner convenience store, own restaurants, print the flyers that we distribute and the church bulletins that we receive on sunday. they all say that pay-for in this bill is booed policy. they don't buy the

well the congressional budget office gave a pretty dire warning about the economy this week and a report released on tuesday the cvo warned that the combination of budget cuts set to go into effect in january and an expiration of bush tax cuts the payroll tax extended unemployment benefits that all that would take us off the fiscal cliff and if congress lets us go off that cliff they predicted that the economy would shrink by one point three percent in the first half of two thousand and thirteen probably throwing the economy back into recession now austerity in europe has been any indication it looks like the c.b.s. has a good point over the battle over schedules sequestration to defense tax cuts for the rich will congress really do anything about it and how is that going to vote for mitt romney's promise of getting unemployment down to six percent when he's in office joining me to discuss this is nick hanauer serial entrepreneur and venture capitalist and he's also author of the book the gardens of democracy make thanks so much for joining us tonight now i guess before we go into some o

scare tactics saying all these people are going to lose their access, it's the nonpartisan congressional budget office. the referee here that was never contested by our republican colleagues in the budget committee, they say, they say 22 million american households with children will see their food nutrition support reduced. two million americans approximately will lose all access to the food nutrition programs through snap. 300,000 kids will lose the school lunch program. those are our facts. that's what the congressional budget office says. with that i yield two minutes to the gentlelady from oregon, ms. bonamici. the speaker pro tempore: the gentlewoman oregon is recognized for two minutes. ms. bonamici: i rise today in strong opposition to house resolution 5652, the sequester replacement reconciliation act. not long ago we were here debating a very misguided budget resolution and today with this house resolution, the leadership has decided to double down on the draconian cuts contained in that budget. we should be able to come together and have a frank discussion about deficit reduction. that is w

the congressional budget office estimates increased tax collection and lower government spending helped the federal government snap a four year deficit streak in april resulting in a $58 billion surplus. and finally how much is lady gaga's used china worth? quite a lot. a tea cup gaga used at a press conference in japan last year just sold for $75,000 at auction. that just makes you shake your head. coming up the spurs sweep the jazz, the coyotes move on and the nhl suspends the flyers leading scorer. plus an amazing home run catch in minor league baseball. your early morning headlines are straight ahead. >>> beautiful weather in the middle of the country and the west coast. for the east coast we have to wait until the weekend. you're watching "early today." >>> good morning. if you're just waking up this is "early today." in sports last night in a stanley cup playoff thriller the new york rangers stunned the washington capitals, breathing life back into the game with seconds on the clock. here's fred roggin with a look at your sports headlines. >> timely in the stanley cup can change t

. >> the congressional budget office is predicting the economy will slink if several large tax cuts are allowed to expire at the end of the year. the cbo said that along with new spending cuts would hamer the economy. >> bottom line here they are predicted we will have another recession in the first half of 2013. >> the cbo predicts economic growth would slink by 1.3% a would only grow half a percent for the entire year. far less than even the slow growth since president obama took office. >> money is sucked out of the private sector by increased taxes. the government is taking that money out of the private sector which then cannot raise the capital to invest it in job creation. >> all the bush tax cut as well as other tax cut to stimulate the economy expire automatically at the end of the year, which some call "taxmageddon" because it would increase taxes $500 million in the first year alone. they want the president to start now to prevent it. >> where what is the president's plan to stop the largest tax increase in history occurring january 1. >> reporter: automatic spending cuts in p

but the was a of management budget and congressional budget office both put us just over 6%. that's where the trend is headed anyway, right? >> if the economy were to pick up speed, absolutely. i think what you have to be concerned about there, is to map governor romney's policy agenda on to this unemployment number he has been throwing around. i mean if you just look at the supply side trickle down, regulatory stuff, that are in his policy documents, he doesn't side this stuff. it's exactly the policy set that got us into the mess we're in now where unemployment has been stuck at highly elevated levels. it feeds right into the comments that you and the congressman were making. if your model is trickle down, that means you're all about the kind of profit maximizing model where tax cuts and big gains to those at the top are supposed to create more economic activity that benefits the middle class and lower income people. we have had a natural experiment of this, and the impact was exactly the opposite. the middle class, low income people struggled, and then fell off the cliff i

plus the congressional budget office sounding larry's alarm. if the bush tax cuts expire, the american economy will come to a screeching halt. and here's a story that would make larry's blood boil. a british auction house plans on auctioning a vial of president reagan's blood since the day he was shot. yeah, folks, that is a true story. breaking news with the new poll. john harwood joins us live with the details. john, what does that survey say? >> brian, one of the things it says is that voters are so locked in that even big news like the gay marriage announcement, like the jpmorgan trading debacle have not significantly shifted the numbers. let's look at the horse race between mitt romney and barack obama. by 47-43 the president hold as 4-point edge over mitt romney if the election were held today. that's slightly smaller than what he held last month. when you look at what weighs down president obama, number one is declining confidence in the economy. just 33% of americans expect the can economy to get better over the next 12 months. that's d

a congressional budget office says another recession could be looming.ok. >>> "men in black" back for the third time. alice eve is starring in the latest installment. she's going to join us to talk about it straight ahead. you're watching "starting point." back in a moment. [ female announcer ] fresh flavor gets a bold new twist with new chef's picks from lean cuisine. new dishes on the culinary cutting edge like mushroom mezzaluna ravioli and chile lime chicken. ♪ new chef's picks from lean cuisine. have. >> here's a question for you. are we about to fall off a fiscal cliff? the congressional budget office says that's what's going to happen if trillions of dollars of tax hikes take effect as scheduled next year including letting the bush tax cuts expire. the alternative middle class exemption and trillion dollars for spending cuts. if congress doesn't act, the u.s. economy could be pushed back into a recession. christine romans joins our panel to talk about that. it sounds dire. >> it is when you look at the numbers. the congressional budget office says

the non-partisan congressional budget office says allowing the bush era tax cuts to expire combined with automatic spending cuts to take effect january 1st could throw the economy in a recession with the economy shrinking by 1.3%. this is the first time they have predicted a potential recession. the report argues if congress and president team up and stop the automatic cuts and tax increases, growth would rise to 4.4%. >>> four secret service employees decided to fight the dismissals over the prostitution scan dmal colombia. this morning's washington post reports the employees ousted from the agency foreign gauging in inappropriate conduct with prosecutes last month ahead of a presidential visit say they are being made scapegoats for the behavior that has been long tolerated by the service. the timing of the charge couldn't be worse for secret service director, mark sul i will van, who is scheduled to testify later today before a senate committee. >>> other stories making news early until america, in texas, a dog napping captured by pet store surveillance video. police say a man grabbed

. >> reporter: the obama campaign is directing people to a report from the congressional budget office. this already projengts that the unemployment rate will be below 6% in about five years time. >> i know the president and their camp were going after bain capital. what's the focus today? have they moved on to something else? >> reporter: president obama is on the campaign trail. he held a priest fund-raiser in california. now he's moved on. he's in iowa, a couple of campaign event there is as well. no coincidence there. we know iowa is a swing state and the president has his eye on it. >> thanks for that live report. >> let's check in with jamie costello, who's in the studio. >> coming up at six, the store are of the day, three lives lost, more on the three men who died in a manure lagoon in cannot county. >> every parent dream about their baby sleeping through the night. those stories and more coming up at 6:00, so stay awake. here's a preview of what's ahead on world news tonight at 6:30. >> kids and football. see what's being done to protect kids from a brain disease linked to for

scare tactics saying all these people are going to lose their access, it's the nonpartisan congressional budget office. the referee here that was never contested by our republican colleagues in the budget committee, they say, they say 22 million american households with children will see their food nutrition support reduced. two million americans approximately will lose all access to the food nutrition programs through snap. 300,000 kids will lose the school lunch program. those are our facts. that's what the congressional budget office says. with that i yield two minutes to the gentlelady from oregon, ms. bonamici. the speaker pro tempore: the gentlewoman oregon is recognized for two minutes. ms. bonamici: i rise today in strong opposition to house resolution 5652, the sequester replacement reconciliation act. not long ago we were here debating a very misguided budget resolution and today with this house resolution, the leadership has decided to double down on the draconian cuts contained in that budget. we should be able to come together and have a frank discussion about deficit reduction. that is w

>>guest: the congressional budget office decision, they issued a report the other day estimating thatou would knock a point off the economy, 1.3 percent of the economy would take a hit if the tax cuts were allowed to expire at end of the year. so, yes, something has to be done. >> so there is motivation there. and you talk about voting to keep the death tax at 23 percent otherwise that will shoot way up? >>guest: to 55 percent, to the majority. that could be good advice because that is the 31st of december, it will be 5 a percent the majority of your estate goes to the federal government this is not only wrong but a disaster for family-owned businesses, many of which go out of business upon the death of the owner. so, that has to change. and i think it will. >> kill the attempt by senate democrats to raise taxes on air travelers. why is this important? >>guest: because air travel is the hive line of the country it holds families together and a massive part of our economy without cheap and simple and effective and on time air travel you do not have a rot of bit, actually. this is the l

that's according to a study put out by congressional budget office. the cbo says if those economic changes go into effect on january 1st, the economy could shrink more than 1% in the first half of next year. >>> this year mazda and fiat announced plans to work together to develop a new car. >>> good news for ford. the u.s. carmaker had its credit rating raised for the first time in seven years. that allows ford to reclaim assets it used as collateral, including its iconic blue logo. lots to watch this morning. >> thank you so much. >>> take a quick break. coming up on a wednesday morning, presidential controversy. a vial said to contain blood residue from ronald reagan is being auctioned off. this is the "cbs morning news." save up to 60% plus, get an extra 10% off! with huge instant savings, no interest financing, and free delivery and haul-away. only at sears. [ girl ]rumental ] when i started playing soccer, i wasn't so good. [ barks ] so me and sadie started practicing. we practiced a lot. now i've got some moves! [ crowd cheering ] spin kick! who

. >> thanks and what is more exciting to talk about than the congressional budget office. so this week there was a sobering report from the congressional budget office, david. in which they warned the country could land in another recession if congress does a couple of things. let's these-- doesn't let these bush era tax cuts expire and if there are serious cuts made in government spending. and there are members of congress without want both of these things to happen. so what do people think is really going to happen there. >> you know, it's all going to happen -- >> it will be actually all these things come due, tax cuts, all these automatic things start happening to we have this incredibly naughty problem on to a congress which is unable to do the easy problems. so dealing with the tough problem is going to be tremendously difficult. and so is there any reason to be other than despairing? >> i think there is a couple and again, one is i think the republicans have desided that what happened last summer was not good for them. they have taken the country to the brink. they a

this week the congressional budget office warned if that was all this is allowed to take place, the economy would be knocked back into recession for the first half of next year. more on this now from two men who watch the u.s. economy closely: ken rogoff of harvard university and josh bivens of the economic policy institute. welcome to both of you. and ken rogoff, to you first, what is the european scenario that the united states should be most worried about? >> oh, goodness. i mean, there's really a cliff there. there's a possibility the whole euro can dissolve if they don't take a quantum leap towards unification and we could have a layman moment again. it's not... lehman moment again. it's not hyperbole to say that. they've seen that in europe. they can't agree among themselves what is are they going to do when greece leaves which is the equivalent of lehman going under in the united states. >> and josh bivens, even short of the worst-case scenario, the u.s. is already feeling the effects of what's happening in europe. >> i think that's right. i think slow grooet in europe and now it loo