conico phillips, trading 56 today and the dividend is 5.5%. is the oil patch fixed? i say no. i think it is still a demand story. we'll find out. the data we've seen from europe and from china and from the united states has been awful in a word. so again, if you think deflation is a fear, is a factor, which i absolutely believe, i think there is another leg to the down side in these names. >> those big diflds and low yield environments should be a warning. options market indicate that they expect the dividends to be cut. >> really? even the ones where analysts are saying they have never cut the dividend in x number of years. >> never say never, how about that. >> all right. >> obviously -- on the street, and not just the options market, the stock market is telling this too, 2 times difld, it is not realistic. >> dan? >> they have never cut their dividend. and the options mark is talking about it. and we've talked about that. but i think we have a five year chart of exxon. it topped out last year. it is in a massive down trend. it just rallied back to the down trend and i think

so my top idea is conico phillips. and they offer a 6% dividend yield and with hess, they are both levered to higher oil prices and have strong competitive positions but could get better if we see acquisitions during the turn down which we consider to be likely. so we consider both names to be good ideas and buys at both levels. >> hi. this is brian kelly. and this is all relying on oil going much, much higher but everyone i have said to around $55 level, the pumps an the rigs get turned back on. how do you account for that in your analysis. >> well, sir, you do have account for it. but it is clear to us that prices at 50 to $55 per barrel is what opec saw when they deelected not to defend price in december -- or november of last year. it will take higher prices to slow down the growth and demand and to speed up growth and supply. and it will take my industry a while to slow down and pick back up and there will be lag effects and we think supply will decline in 2016. >> doug. we'll leave it there. thank you for your ti