let's get back to conrad dequadros.look at forward guidance is it a proper tool or are we hoping to much that the markets move on just talking? >> one of the points i was trying to make before that i think is unfortunate that they are relying so much on forward guidance because i don't think it's a good tool. yellen made the point that there is this intent to thoroughly guide policy going forward but how can you do that when the outlook is so uncertain and yet policy is supposed to be dependent on that outlook. the comment yellen just made tot it might be desirable see the unemployment rate move back towards what they think the natural rate is. i would make the point that on their estimates that's a half percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. never have we seen a half percent increase in the unemployment rate. if you get a half percent increase in the unemployment rate the economy always goes into recession. these are kind of bizarre communications coming out of the fed and i think it complicates things. i