joining us now, subadra rajappa and constance hunter. g intelligence people are saying it could be higher. constance: it could always be higher or lower. this is one of the most volatile numbers there is. we sacrifice accuracy for timeliness. this comes out at the end of the month. at what jobs are going to be -- with labor force participation and where we expect unemployment to be in the next several quarters, we are looking at an average of about 200,000 for the first quarter this year. that would suggest lower payrolls. david: these are remarkable numbers. go back five years, nobody would have predicted this. what does that say about the state of the economy? subadra: it is pretty strong. there's one shining spot, the jobs picture. things have been steadily improving. we are averaging about 225,000 jobs a month. it's really a positive story on the jobs front. the question is for the bond markets. is this mostly about global growth and the slow down there? meld with asn't strong consumer and strong jobs number. are we overbought? subadr

we have constance hunter and "wall street journal" global economics editor, fox news contributor, jonilsenrath. do you think the street could be getting a little over their skis, anticipating tomorrow, hints as removal of quantitative tightenorg some sort of action that would suggest it will be removed soon? >> well i mean, i'm not sure where the street is right now but i do think that the fed is closing in and could be saying something about when they will end the runoff that they're doing on their balance sheet. but you know, i think, that the fed will not answer the most important question, which hasn't gotten any attention on wall street, which is, even when they stop shrinking their balance sheet, they have to reconfigure the way it looks. they have a lot of ponds in their portfolio. there is debate going on inside of the fed which hasn't been resolved, once they get to the ultimate size of 3 trillion or 3 1/2 trillion, do they want mostly bonds or mostly bills? do they want mostly long-term stuff or mostly short-term stuff. charles: why does that matter, jon? >> it matters immen

for more on all this and what it thes us about the state of economy, we are joined by constance hunter this was data if you pull in chicago fed and jp shows the recession is not imminent. what does the data especially the mixed bag of regional manufacturing surveys indicate about the quality of the economy's growth? if we look at the manufacturing sector, there are some headwinds that are coming from the global situation and we tend to see a global manufacturing cycle so it is not surprising we would see some weakness in the u.s. if we look at the consumer side, we are still healthy and by healthy, i mean growing above potential gdp. if we look at the report from yesterday the bright spot was business investment. everything else was going as we expect which is growing at a slower rate and moving toward that potential gdp rate of 1.8 percent to 2.8% -- 2%. >> we are seeing, you talked about external pressures we are saying and many talk about the u.s. being an island away from other geopolitical regions. which one worries you more? when you're looking at the relatively better-than-expec

out, chief economist for kpmg constant hunter, moody's chief economist, john lonski, and former fed advisor danielle dimartino booth. let me start with you, constancethe wage number i think is remarkable, non-supervisory wages up over 3%, seven straight months. headline number is up four months in a row and it looks like it is going to keep going. >> we were expecting this to happen. this is something is the fed talked about a lot, there is this relationship between the wage rate and unemployment rate, right? now that we have unemployment below the natural rate, we would expect to see some of these pressures. as you mentioned it is how it is distributed. so if you look, for example leisure, hospitality workers, those wages up 4.6%. you look at retail workers, those wages were up 5%. and that, those are people not receiving the high wages, seeing bigger increases there is really encouraging. charles: it really is. last night costco reported for the second time in six is months they're raising their minimum wage, john. we know it's a tight labor pool. we have low unemployment rates in the last 10 years. this is the first time we've seen the needle mo