macro policy senior advisor constance hunter.w on the screen, we had the screen it was a little fuzzy. let's skip do our second guest here, danielle dimartino booth who is in studio with us. that last part lydia was talking about, danielle, in november the fed was confident, right? and all inflation, the pace of inflation has taken off like a rocket ship! i, how did they miss stuff like that? >> look, there are so many moving pieces here. you've got, you've got housing distress that is not coming through the numbers because it is so terribly lagged. energy prices have obviously popped way back up. some of these prices that are so critical to average working men and women like car insurance have gone through the roof. meanwhile you've got used car prices coming down and the cost to fix that used car going bay up. everything is going in the wrong direction. charles: you and i talked about this like years ago, maybe in the 40s or '50s, whatever, we didn't talk about it back then, years ago back in the '40s, '50s, fed had people not

constance hunter, senior advisor at macro policy perspective. thanks for joining us. >> sure.pleasure. >> why did you pick the participation rate out in particular? >> well, because it jumped up. and that's a really good piece of news, right. because when you look at this headline number, you could say, my goodness, it's gonna cause inflation to reaccelerate. the crux of why it's not has to do with supply. greater number of people supplying labor means that it's less likely to be inflationary down the road. >> how does immigration factor into the numbers in your view? >> yeah. immigration is a really important part of this. we are adding workers when we need them, right. so we had sort of a lower increase in immigration during the 2000s. so if you go back to the 1990s, we had a larger flow of immigrants. we have a strong economy. that often attracts people to come to the united states and it often accompanies our applying for the hb 1s in greater volume. we are seeing that again. we have a strong economy. employers are looking to bring in workers. of course, we have people com

we now bring in constance hunter. talking about the idea of higher for longer. how much higher and for how much longer? you have to worry about the perspective of another rate hike? >> we do not think there is going to be another rate hike. several fed speakers have been asked about this. i think one of the best answers was given by the president which is the fact that inflation is not going down but it is not rising but it is plateauing. in addition, there is a lot of good reason to expect it will continue to fall but a bit more gradually. waiting for runs to filter through -- rents filtering through is hard. and a one-off event such as higher inflation for financial services or the higher inflation we saw for the auto insurance was driven by three states saying the insurers could increase their prices. california, new york, and new jersey. and so from an economic perspective. so those one-off things will feed out. i think rate hikes is an unlikely prospect. >> i understand the earliest you believe we could see a cut would be december. what would drive that fir