this is three-month implied correlation chart, and what you see here is it made a new one-year high., this tracks the implied correlation of the top 50 stocks in the s&p 500, and when you see these levels rise what this certainly means is a lower benefit to diversification and stock picking and an increase in terms of systemic and tail risk, and this is really the concern a lot of investors currently have with the overall market, so this is confirming the concerns that investors have, and if we look at the spy, what you have on a long-term weekly chart is a trend line that recently broke over the past couple of weeks. this is trend line that's been in place for the past two years. this is showing us there's some concern on the down side if we zoom in here to the daily chart, we're just testing this 425 major level that's been retested multiple times here over the past couple of months. and my concern if we break below this key level we're headed down to the low 400s or high 390s, if you will, to the down side as a target it trade structure i want to use to try to protect ourselves ag

this tracks the implied correlation of the top 50 stocks in the s&p 500 and when you see these levels rise what this certainly means is a lower benefit to diversification and stock picking and increase in terms of systemic and tail risk. this is the concerns that a lot of investors currently have with the overall market this is confirming the concerns that investors have. we look the spy what you have on a long-term weekly chart is a trend line that recently broke over the past couple weeks this is a trend line that's been in place for the past two years. this is showing us that there's some concern here for further down side and if we zoom in to the daily chart we're just testing this 4 25 major level that has been retested multiple times in the past couple months. my concern is if we break below the key level we're headed to low 400 and high 390 to the down side as a target so the trade structure i want to use to try to protect ourselves against this potential down side is to use a put vertical, going out to april, buying a 425, 390 put vertical spending $15.30 for that april 425 pu

you need to look over long periods of time and bitcoin is actually 0.0 correlated to bonds and 0.15 correlatedver its whole life in the short-term period, you can get high levels of correlation partly because the marginal participate in the bitcoin market unfortunately bought on leverage and when you get a big drop in equity markets broadly, people get a margin call. they're forced to sell what they have to sell as opposed to what they want to sell. over longer periods of time, you see the normal course of returns generating the, in the asset, focused on that. so if you think about the stocks and bond market, those are, the returns are generated by economic growth, interest rates and corporate profits. bitcoin has nothing to do with any of that. it has to do with technology, millennial adoption, regulatory changes. all of that makes it a perfect diversifier for your portfolio >> let's talk a little bit i'm dying to ask you more about why the hell i should get into chinese tech stocks or whatever you said not for me, baby, but let's talk about commodities and i'm not saying, you may be making a

the correlation is coming together. cameron: it is interesting. story, starting about a year ago, really was a rise in correlation between stock and bond returns. the primary driver i think was inflation. inflation becomes paramount. bond market goes down. it sorta takes the stock market with it. what we have seen more recently -- and it may just be a temporary phenomenon driven by the war in ukraine -- is a reversion to what we call traditional relationship or the negative correlation between the returns. as you saw today, the bond market goes down in the stock market goes up, a classic risk rotation out of the safe asset into riskier assets. romaine: you know, when you look at where we are at now, it has been a dramatic date but it is kind of getting us back to the point of where we were, i don't know, a couple of weeks ago. cameron: a couple of days ago, really. romaine: thank you -- a couple of days ago, and it is a blur. i wonder if it is here to kind of take it further, to push the yield up to 2% on the 10-year yield and stocks back to where

there is correlation between equity returns and economic growth.amed el-erian wrong when he says the markets have yet -- have not yet woken up to the economic hit that's going to come about because of the higher rates? giulio: there is for sure that risk. especially if you take into account inflation risk. i would not say that it is necessarily our base case. we expect equity returns to be lower in the future, especially if we look at the medium to long-term. i would not necessarily say that our base case is a marked downturn at the moment. there's been a correction in the last few months. that puts the valuations a bit and a less stressed environment, especially if you look at the u.k. and europe, which could be good news for european investors. tom: is there a yield level that you are looking at that would be a trigger? we were speaking to brewin dolphin, janet mui me for just a couple of minutes ago suggesting that 3% on the u.s. 10 year is what they would be looking at as far as the pain point for equities. james bullard saying he wants to see

there's probably more than just correlation there is some causation there.sponds to access to better high paying jobs, then obviously income levels are tied to crime as well and lack of opportunity is a factor. mayor turner, how long we are schools shut down during covid? >> i believe starting april 2020. through the rest of the academic year. then the following academic year, they reopened. we encouraged them all to reopen. >> do you think the lack of educational opportunity or the number of people at the high school senior level are at the third. level that have any effect on crime in your city? >> i try education and opportunity together and if people are falling behind not getting what they need from the educational point of view to reduce number of opportunities to make it available that could lead to increase crime and the more that receive education the better they will be. >> one of the worst policies that was adopted during the last two years in terms of trying to mitigate covid was taking a set of our citizens , our kids and depriving them of educa

that would indicate a possible correlation there. think at this point, we really don't know enough. it's a legitimate asset class, it is not tax efficient to trade. it is something that people are attracted to from a momentum standpoint. you definitely have increasing usage of digital currencies. i think that israel. -- that is real. it is separate from value. the other thing is it hasn't really demonstrated itself as a hedge. i know a lot has been made for bitcoin as a proxy for gold. again, i don't think you have enough history to make that statement and i would argue that it really hasn't acted simply at all. but we don't know enough. as a money manager, it is a fast hitting area to watch long-term and we will see how it performs in multiple cycles and multiple scenarios. >> michael, great to have you with us. president of permanent portfolio family of funds. more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> now for a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. struggling to meet production forecast because of a

lisa: it's hard to understand the correlations. you pointed to the goldman sachs call about financial is asian of commodities and how that is distorting some real assets in ways that perhaps we have an experienced to the same to great and i wonder how much that will be a driving force over what happens next couple of weeks. jonathan: shall we call it messy? lisa: that's pretty fair. we are talking about futbol. a big move higher over the last week for crude but now it's down. lisa: there is an idea that had -- that yields have gone up significantly over the past week let alone year to date and it feeds into this stagflation discussion. at 7:30 a.m., the u.k. chancellor will answer questions about how much the cost-of-living is surging. the bank of england meeting thursday is where they expect to raise interest rates. how much to the talk about that they are seeing perhaps 10% inflation at a time of slowing growth was central banks hiking into a decline in how much does it feed into some sort of fiscal support? at 8:30 a.m., we get

this correlation called they story called pact lead by presidential candidate, gustavo pedro, who has a 15 percent advantage over the closest rival. their victory would represent a seismic shift for the 1st time, this real possibility that candidacy the don't come from traditional liberal or political ally when i could win the presidency and control congress. and this generates turbulence, a latent political crisis between those who believe the time for change has come against others who fear it would be dangerous, leap into the dark overall, this has been mostly peaceful day of voting across most of the country. however, there have been 2 attacks on military units in rural areas in the south of the country and 2 soldiers died there. there were also a number of complaints arriving again in rural areas that have seen an increase of violence in the past months in which people said they have been tricked into by on groups and not to vote. and just a reminder that even after 5 years, that of the signing of any static piece agreement here in columbia between the state and the biggest rebel

>> accepting text, that's very cool.ts gas prices have correlation to how to present party does in midterm election and you will not be surprised to know for higher prices are they are departed to us, this is an x essential right to do democratic control of congress, the higher prices were high long before russia moved toward ukraine and have been going up over a series of months as demand rises, over the omicron variance and its spread, demand is coming back online to where it would have been pre-pandemic or higher pre-pandemic driving around. this is not a good thing for the administration, the most obvious way americans feel with inflation and aat reminder the most powerful person in the world, the president of united states of america isn't all that powerful for things like gas prices and the economy. prices would go up whether or not biden was in the white house or donald trump or whoever else, it doesn't matter who the price -- the prices are headed higher and statusea the cycle of economics but of the most obvious way americans feel the pinch and at this moment in particular, more a

in finance they like looking at relationships and how things correlated in the past.difficult to say this time it's different. but to a certain extent it is. some of these companies are extremely large now and can resist a lot of the traditional features we see in financial markets before. so i think the correlations we see at the moment would probably not be surprising to see them diverge because we are in transition. i was looking at chaos theory recently. my personal feeling is probably for the next quarter or two, equities will stay strong. but it is based on the fact that bonds do not completely fall out of bed because if they do, all bets are off. shery: what is the logic behind with the boj is doing now? we have seen significant pressure on the japanese yen already and now they keep aggressively easing. we have additional purchases at the moment. what will it do to the overall picture? >> i think we are all scratching our heads. it's the kind of thing you might say if it's not broken, don't fix it. there is a policy decision not to have the yields raise too hig

you just pointed out other correlations have broken off.l have an equity vix above 30 which, historically, has led to incredibly high correlations between crypto and equities. we've also seen on chain analytics and spot flow coming from different exchanges that says there is something between three times in four times the amount of volume in ruble to the pairs on these centralized exchanges. that is a one-way trade, obviously right now. there's definitely a bid coming out of that area of the world for obvious reasons. people are trying to get the hell out of ruble. how long that lasts is a question because russians are cutting off all fx flows out of the country and at some point you are not going to be able to use a bank card to put any more money into these exchanges. sonali: we are seeing crypto be used to support the ukrainian resistance effort in incredibly powerful ways. there's also a major concern the russians could use cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions. do you see that as a real risk? leigh: i don't think it's a real scenario

these monkey studies do not correlate with human experience -- do correlate with human experience and it is a rallying call to get vaccinated because the best protection to not get covid there is do not get infected in the first place. kristen: thank you so much. always great talking with you. we always learn so much. take good care. dr. chin-hong: bye. kristen: next, violence targeting indigenous women is a problem. a northern california tribe has issued an emergency declaration. we will talk to a member of the tribe about the kristen: at least five indigenous women in the last year and a half walk this pacific coastline have been mortared -- murdered or disappearing, including a young mother last seen october in the far corner od e --of a reservation. her cousin provided us with witw photo of emily and told abc7news she still has hope her cousin will return home, but it is a struggle to keep the faith. the state of missing and murdered indigenous women has heard -- spurred an emergency declaration. claes george is a member of the tribe. a research partner for project to understand j

. >> are you adjusting a correlation? >> yes. >> [ laughter ] probably not. >> we call it the ryan theory of inverse economic meteorologist correlations. >> in fact it is working, because the numbers will be near record territory tomorrow. if you are away from the shoreline. first this, the view of the skyline, as we look out to the going golden gate bridge, concord at 77 degrees, 18 degrees above average in the forecast for concorde. oakland, 64, livermore, 74 degrees percent and cisco at 61. the closer you get to the shoreline, the cooler it is. santa rosa right now has 80 degrees. 24 hour change says the numbers are going up. while it has been exactly the same in palo alto from 5:00 yesterday to 5:00 today, in santa rosa it is 9 degrees warmer. half moon bay warmer, and a degrees warmer out at concord. in the headlines, it will get warm. mostly clear skies tonight. a few days past full it will be today's into the 80s inland. it will stay dry this week. it might actually get wet again , and it might not. we will see. in

i don't see the correlation there. and this is not vladimir putin's gas prices. the voters out here blame joe biden 100% gas prices. they have been going up since the day he took office. you can see, they went up more since ukraine. but this is a false narrative. all of them blaming ukraine for these gas prices, it's ridiculously crazy. host: teresa all right. reid wilson? guest: gas prices are going out not because of ukraine, they are going up for a million reasons. demand is one of them. supply and demand, the basics of economics. when more people want something, the higher the price goes. we do not get a lot of gas in the united states from russia. only about 3% of the total amount of gas we import. far more of it comes from canada. canada is our main source of gas. there we go. to tia's point earlier on what the fed's are doing on the gas tax as they consider suspending the gas tax through the end of the year. there is a bill sponsored by three michigan democrats including senator stabenow, to suspend the gas tax for the rest of the year. that would drop pri

correlated to that yield curve.n: perhaps it always will. andrew, you gotta stick with us. we are lucky to have a second segment with andrew slimmon. for your earnings, the yield curve does not drive earnings like it use to for banks. but for investor appetite for multiples, it still does. you can push back as much as you want but looking at what the market does off of the back of it, it is still very much the story. tom: corporations can address but you are right that it is multiple behavior. the multiple is a numerator and denominator, whichever you are looking at it is about growth. it is up top in the numerator and the denominator is the belief in prosperity. there is a consensus those margins come in. to pick number 22, does the multiple come in to 20 or to 17? that is a big difference and that is sort of the market forward. jonathan: we will continue on that. can we pick up on the headlines at a germany that we touched on five to 10 minutes ago? the german example this morning, whether it is replicated in the

one who ritual emerge as the main opposition parties on which all the smaller parties can correlate. it'll be interesting to see how things develop in the next 2 years before the national election. thank you for analysis of it on sorry, speaking to a staff from new delhi. thank you. south korea, as close as ever presidential election has been won by the conservative challenger unit. the old in will take over the current liberal president, moon j, in who's single 5 year term comes to an end in may. rob mcbride report since the start of this bruising campaign, conservative challenger units that had remained neck and neck with a liberal rival, the jameel exit polls put them within a percentage points of each other. and so began a sleepless night for many in south korea following local broadcasters, animated depiction of this epic struggle until you emerged as when i am deeply grateful to all over you and the people who have supported a beginner to this point, a political newcomer. he 1st came to prominent the lead prosecutor and the imprisonment of disgraced former president park un, he

of course, like one of the factors is beijing strategy. correlations with russia is one factor, $48.00 are not condemned english infections, you know, crane. but the other factor remains in the taiwan question, which out i, china mostly blamed, are natural and the us for the current crisis. how the changing security, diamond jones, due to the us activities and taiwan to pro independence political build may be used as a precondition for the unification of i want by force in the future. even though our chinese presents a comparison between pl crane and taiwan, because it implies our pie one being as all their nation. whereas actually gauging country goes taiwan. has any got a province. so even though it presents are a comparison between ukraine and taiwan by our china, is looking for understanding the us. oh, sure. and west or sure. in russia, against russia, and better prepare for the future invasion off day one. ok. let's hammer a little bit more on that because india does what some of his cd believe that says she's refusal to criticize russia in part because he wants to preserve his o

we talk about the legislation, and medical research has been done to show if there is a direct correlation of burn victims, how much credit cost? guest: what we're talking about is known carcinogens. we don't know everything that was burned, but we certainly know the vast majority of what was burned caused illnesses. these types of facilities are not allowed. these have been banned in the u.s. for decades. because when you burn all of these synthetic materials they put off incredibly toxic fumes and veteran service members, contracters have been breeding these things for years. we know the effects, we know research has been done. we know service members and veterans have gotten sick and died from their exposure to these. all of this is known. really, the effects were known as early as the early 2000 when we had service members coming back from the first few years of the war and coming down with very strange illnesses. incredibly sick soldiers that went over there and all of a sudden couldn't run a mile. this is something that has been known, but just not enough has been done. certainly mor

0.7 versus k-web compared to qqq where correlation is lower so you're seeing high beta names getting destroyed and bouncing huge don't me if it is necessarily sustainable in this market. >>> coming up. tesla tango, elon musk breaking out the dangs moves in the new tesla german factor, if you can call it that, is worth grooving into. >>> and shares on a ddobe numbes next t ney" back in two o ited is going ultra! get more. like manny. event planning with our best plan ever. (manny) yeah, that's what i do. (vo) with 5g ultra wideband in many more cities, you get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost. verizon is going ultra, so your business can get more. [sfx: street ambience] ♪ ["fly me to the moon"] ♪ ♪ ♪ imagine a community where millions share ideas and trade stocks, crypto and beyond. to the moon? in other words... etoro.the power of social investing. ♪ get a head start in investing with the new schwab starter kit™. new investors can open an account and get $50 to split across the top five stocks in the s&p 500®. you can also unlock short videos, step-by-step guides, and other

there's a direct correlation clearly to what's happening in the commodities market oil is plummetingminutes or so ago during our conversation with mark fisher to come off that a little bit and nonetheless, that drop in crude is having a direct cor correlation. it's down 110 a barrel and as crude falls, stocks rise and that's at the very outset of the program 48 minutes ago is it all about commodities and is it all about oil and at least rid now it is? . >> i would agree with you, but the curious part is there's no answer to why crude oil plummeted and is venezuela going to send us oil this is a big drop while bombs are still dropping in ukraine does indicate there's a piece of news that's missing and there's a piece of the puzzle that's missing here and we need to find that out >> i think part of it certainly what's being talked about are expectation that opec is, in fact, going to increase production that's what some of the chatter appears to be. you heard mark fisher's expectation that opec will, in fact, do what they haven't done to this point and that may be the direct correlatio

and the correlation has dropped to 17% since 2000 and today's team cites it more important than thehistorically financials have outperformed 50% of the time calling for inversions as the one you're calling for >> 50% is a good probability and i don't know that i'd hang my hat on that. usually financials are correlated with the long end of the curve and recently they've decoupled from that. that's because the entire curve moved up and there wasn't a steepening in the yield curve and we've stayed quite flat. if the curve inverts, usually following the inversion it is a steepening and let's move through the year and think about the idea that financials are not overbought here and this isn't a place where i feel like the market is frothy and if consumers start to run out of that excess savings they'll start to borrow because they still have demand as we've all been talking about they still have demand and they're going to have to borrow from the banks and borrow from an environment where rates are higher i still like financials. i think they're cash rifrp and m much healthier than previ

correlation's across the us. >> your thoughts on the issues? i think it is very important that the hearing she held in this issue many of these fossil fuel companies are outside of reservations where they know they are outside the jurisdiction of tribal law. therefore there have been many areas where women are kidnapped and raped and people are not brought to justice. a blind eye is turned by local jurisdiction. on the gas prices issue i think we have to understand that this is profiteering. it is not a and demand issue. oil companies trying to make as much money as possible. flexibly. would make called in all the ceos do you know what the number one question was? they pledged to produce less. the questioning from the party is do you promise to produce less like europe? >> the american people are not fooled by this. all of this behind the fraud of the green new deal where they got rid of all of their nuclear facilities and then they began to get in bed with russia. as a result they can't make the decisions that are needed in order to protect uk

tell me what you see in terms of correlations of high yield to the greater market. >> this is why theove is important. we've been in this slow motion taper tantrum typically incorporate bond investments. there are two typically offsetting parameters within the fund. one is the duration risk and the other is the spread risk and they typically mitigate each other. if spreads widen, you typically get a rally in the bond market. right now, you are having a rush and it's not a good dynamic. it's what's allowing the corporate bond etf that tracks investment grade exposures which is having its worst quarter in the history of the product and that goes back to 2008 and that's evenly divided between spread widening. this is where it's so problematic. the message from the fed is just unfriendly. the fed as it job to do and is risk managing inflation from well above target and i'd like to say the fresh -- the fed is a buyer in this context. the certainty typically provides markets when things go wrong which is the situation we are in is not evil. it has its own mission. lisa: to put some numbers

euro swissie, these are markets that are correlated. a quiet morning, down 10 basis points on the day. i keep saying it is quite a move for this week. chairman powell this week, cpi. for all the banks lined up for a 50 basis point move in march, i have not seen them throwing the towel in on that. goldman still thinks seven hikes this year, than they grew in an extra hike next year, too. tom: we will see. right now we have to do is look at russia. on company that has done that over the decades in north america is target. let's get your attention. target has beat walmart by over 600 basis points per year in the last 10 years. their chief financial officer, michael fiddelke, joins us this morning. the president will speak tonight on $105 brent crude. you spoke today about $24 per hour on your wage. how are you going to do this for line employees? michael: the investments we make in our routine are the best investments we make. that has been a path of investments over years. we had a $15 starting wage back in 2015. we have invested in addit

the other thing is correlations typically go to what? correlations start to compress.basically what happens is it is very hard to find protection, and that is one of the things we have been talking about in the capital markets. tom: here's the accounting maxim. can balance sheet write-downs of debt and frankly of equity go over and destabilize the system enough where var is at work? christopher: i think the u.s. banking system is exceptionally well-capitalized. i think they're exceptionally well positioned towards this situation. i don't see anything dramatic or systematic to hurt the banks at this time. i am very confident about the balance sheet at the u.s. banks. jonathan: how do you know when we are in a bear market? what do you look for? christopher: we will look to the credit markets. before we see a bear market, one of the things we begin to see is pushback in investors, pushback on credit. so when you bring a new issue to the market, what you see is more pricing concessions. you will see how it trades. those are all indicators that risk appetite isn't quite whe

we are not seeing the correlation between support for equities any japan as a result of the weaker yen. that relationship seems to have broken down over the last five years. we could see some support when it comes to japanese exporters. it seems that the upside list to equity sentiment is not playing out anymore. it will be interesting to see whether the government might start dropping if we see a further slide. shery: i was surprised they stepped in to try to tempt on the 10 year yield given that there could be concerns about the yen weakening further. perhaps because they have a different inflationary environment. not like in the u.s. where we have inflation at the highest since the 1980's and that would be pressured even further given we may have more fiscal stimulus measures. president biden unveiling the 5.8 trillion dollar budget request that emphasized additional funding for police and veterans. this will be heavily rewritten in congress but it is a messaging device at a time of the sample just go fed president was saying that u.s. consumer prices have surged more than in other

those correlations could be different this time.hink at least the rate hike this week is fully discounted. a range of rate hikes. when you look at the markets, it is discounting 6 to 7 rate hikes. it will be interesting to see what they will say in the forecast how the dots in the fed will move not as high as markets it is interesting to see what they see as the terminal rate for the fed fund rate. is it 2.5% or higher where we have to tighten monetary policy? if they are hawkish, there could be some potential on the dollar ofdollar oil, sure, the fed will have an impact if the prospect -- what is overhanging in the oil markets is the sanctions on energy supply from russia, particularly oil. we have seen the oil price coming down in the past couple of days because of the prospect of sanctions has been reduced to some extent. i think there are so many other moving parts at this moment having an impact on the oil prices, not just the fed >> yeah, the other thing i think was really important for the oil price ahead of this war was how

it is highly correlated throughout 71 days, and then it breaks down.elieve that is the case here. when the s&p gets crushed, bonds get crushed, you have to crush everything. but when the dust settles, people will realize with rates going higher, and fed funds rates are going to five or something. that has to hurt bond prices, probably stock prices. and then anything with discounted cash flows like real estate gets hurt. cryptocurrencies are independent of interest rates. matt: real estate getting hurt is a painful trade considering how many americans have been paying inflated prices. dan: that is the problem, the fed is driving mortgages artificially below where they should be and is daring someone not to buy a house. if prices are going up 19% across america, and you can borrow at 2%, you kind of have to do that. that is why the economy is overheated. sonali: most credit investors look at bitcoin and have that problem, that it doesn't have cash flows, so how do i get into it? you have made a lot of money outside of bitcoin into other defi projects. ho

t w's correlated. tomboy, she spoke with robert herbert, he's germany's vice chancellor. and he is in washington dc. right now. she asked him whether he believes russia could watch an attack on nato territory. was coming from him, no mission for. i can't imagine that yet the meal. but at christmas i could never have imagined that ukraine would be dealing with such a massive attack in february. so i thought there could be was, or a wider conflict hunterman on you might have had an inkling it could happen. yeah.

and then with the correlation between food and insecurity and sectarian violence.to weaponize the global food supply food chain. rachel: talk about these conversations through russia and china and it was very clear they were informing each other. so what should the biden administration do now? or is it too late? and with that the fact out alliance because they both have an interest to undermine in europe and in asia and the ccc p-letter they have not said they are directly helping russia and when to invade after the olympics they did share intelligence about what the united states knew about the invasion. and to know for certain that they are not assisting russia and ukraine so they are complicit. now with the biden administration is to do is understand not stick their head in the sand today they can convince president xi to shame them to stay are you going to be on the right side of history? the cc be one —- the ccp was to push them out so we need a clear violation of the two countries and how they are collaborating. rachel: he is warning that more sanctions put t

they believe in what they call this correlation of forces. we have to dominate the warfare space. and whether it's civilians -- it's not that they're shooting at civilians intentionally. they are just indifferent to the fact that civilians happen to be in that area of their target. they are conducting modern day sieges at cities such as mariupol, lviv will soon be that way, kyiv will soon be that way. it's just the way they fight. they have fought that way at stalingrad, at grozni, and we'll see, unless zelenskyy surrenders or allows these cities to surrender, these will be modern day sieges that will be started by bombardments, time after time after time. they will surround the city. they will then starve the city because what they're trying to do is make sure that if they have to put their soldiers into those cities it's under the most favorable terms possible. we saw this at stalingrad. the germans didn't get defeated at stalingrad. they were starved out of stalingrad. this is the russian way of war. >> it's not about humanity. it's about dominating. the u.s. flew b-52 bombers

we do not know if that correlates with how sick we are.hat is good news is if you have been vaccinated you have hybrid immunity, which means a stronger immune response. the real question is how does that correlate with how you live your life. does that mean you can go for dinner and restaurants? does that mean you can take a plane? and not wear a mask on the flight? immune response relates to how we live our lives. it is still a big unknown and should we even know this answer? when it came to flu, i do not know what my immune response is to the flu virus. i do know how to treat my children. i know how to manage my symptoms. jonathan: that is the good news. i am not going to pretend i enjoyed this segment, but it is good to catch up. dr. bhakti hansoti of johns hopkins, thank you. people used to come to work with flu. are they going to do that now? lisa: that is good question. jonathan: i am not advocating for political policy except i am. you should be able to say i'm not coming to work because i am ill and not feel like you have to becaus

surprisingly they have moved a little but higher for you normally they are highly correlated with gasces, so it is a little surprising. but the longer this goes on, it is going to hit investor sentiment. it is going to affect currencies. we saw how the euro swissie went under parody this week, so you're going to affect the currencies. obviously we are talking about the european a comic recovery as covid retreated. that is going to be retreating as well. question is, does china step in and pick up enough of the slack from what the west and europe is not going to do with russia to buffer the situation a little bit and allow putin to continue? jonathan: thank you, victoria fernandez of crossmark global investment. just trying to work out the crosscurrents of the central bank response to all of this. at the moment i think it is fair to say it is almost impossible to. tom: the uncertainty is there. i mentioned this the other day, there is risk where you've got a measurement. there's uncertainty where you really don't have a measurement, and that is clearly where we are. i would suggest is

tom: and you cross correlate this to other euro pairs like euro's west euro-yen, etc..'t want to make a production, other than the chart is beyond ugly. jon: lisa, do they have to step in? and how do they step in? lisa: how much is this drawl boning the euro to strength by saying we are still thinking about rate hikes this year. right now, if the u.s. is an island, so too is the dollar. jon: brent 1.5 -- 115. we were this far away from 120. that is across asset price action. let's say good morning to kriti gupta. >> let's talk about the oil move because you are seeing brent crude prices climbing higher and higher, no relief when it comes to the oil market. that is having an effect into the stock market, specifically names concentrated in u.s. production and u.s. revenue. devon energy up .9%. occidental is another one, 80% of the revenue coming from the u.s. up 1.4 percent. chevron does have the russian exposure, importing 4 million barrels to the california refineries as of 2021. nevertheless, instead of being under pressure like so many russia-exposed stocks, they are

over the last year a very strong correlation. basically traded in lockstep.aded in lockstep until recently. the german dax plunging down at the s&p 500 hangs in there. the dax down about 23%. the s&p 500 down 11%. the question is the s&p 500 follow the dax. this could certainly be a year of a rolling bear market. you can see the dax looks pretty ugly. guy: the european story very uncertain at this time. a lot of people struggling with that uncertainty. abigail, thank you very much. a couple of things worth noting. the symbol is lng, we are sold out of gas until into the 20 40's. will be watching for the next 24 hours. that is a long-term story. lawmakers focused in d.c. focused on the funding of the government. kailey: tomorrow's international women's day. we will get wholesale inventories in the u.s.. eurozone gdp plus china inflation numbers will be out. geopolitics were made front and center. they'll be talking about that next on "balance of power." ♪ >> from the world of politics -- >> it is visceral, it is more violent, and we have to be prepared to move

that was exactly reason you mentioned it in your, in your commentary. correlation of rationality that facebook and we're used by based on society based on community spread, so called 1st of all ross and our mental spread false information from the view from the point of view of the rest and government. false information of all the russian military operation in the ukraine. so the what, what block that it's important to mention that facebook and twitter of a lot meek, international platforms, international social media, independent from the russian state from.

but in fact they step it up a little correlation. yeah, the must have seen the mars. i don't think we can trust thresher. see you her. oh, so of our model, their words are worth nothing, or the most shar, we believed that they would not wage a full scale invasion would upon the mazda next door. when you now, i don't trust their words or yon live either. you saw them. i think the russians are putting a brave face on their defeats and a lack of success around kevin. yes. we've had news in recent days of it p one of the big suburbs of key about 25 kilometers. as the crow flies more, i am here that saw some pretty atrocious civilian losses. and lot people have seen those pictures of the destroyed bridge and people trying to cross with their children, their pets, lots of civilians die trying to get out of that town. that now seems to be fully back in control of the ukrainian army. and some of the nearby towns were so some of the worst fighting the early days of this war, seemingly according to brains, was at least now surrounded by ukrainian forces in eastern country, clos

i'll be fascinated to see what people think, correlation makes people think there is correlation.es higher issue but you are right, that was happening before this war. not that the biden administration is interested in this, you can't turn the pumps up over night. this is years of policy that suppress fossil fuels. not for nothing, i was talking to one of my kids coming home from school. they were doing a project, we were discussing it. how we can begin to wean ourselves off fossil fuel. i said to my son, maybe your answer should be we shouldn't, we should be drilling more and pumping more and ask your teacher if they want electricity running, if they want to drive to work, windmills are not ready to ensure heat is running. maybe we should be increasing fossil fuel production not looking to wean ourselves off. >> carley: you made a good case for home schooling. >> todd: if that is lessons they are get nothing texas, imagine the lessons in massachusetts and california. >> will: it is everywhere, i promise you. >> todd: you near parm ahoy highway, we picked that place for a specific

the full correlation is quite high.ina is a little bit different because the underperformance we have seen is striking compared to the numbers. and they could actually be the ones becoming a little bit correlated going forward. >> mentioned sector growth, cybersecurity's, are there any other calls like that? i assume you are not keen on energy or consumer discretion. do you think these things have a trajectory that it is more independent of the business cycle? it is more independent with what is going on with the war in ukraine, etc.? >> you are absolutely correct. you have to look at relative valuation and future growth expectations for the industry. consumer discretionary means quite a lot, but there has been a decent run in energy at these numbers. oil is not going to go down. it will remain a little bit higher. that's probably not where you want to allocate additional funds as of now. we're talking about currency and energy has a different thing. also the future of health care will remain one of the big things going

this inverse correlation between crude and the euro has developed. for the europeans. crude at 113.25, up a little more than 4% this morning. the ecb has a very fine line to walk. lisa: it needs to hope support the recovery, particularly in the periphery, while also not encouraging inflation to go further that week euro. jonathan: typically we have to wait a couple of moments for an ecb decision. it rarely comes out of exactly 45 minutes past the hour. then we will go past the headlines. we will try to get an outlook from president lagarde. president lagarde i think is in a tough position right now to communicate the year ahead. the marginal lending facility unchanged at 25 basis points. the depot rate at -50 basis points. the ecb saying he russia invasion is a watershed moment for europe. net buying under the pandemic program will end in march. we will ensure smooth liquidity conditions for you daily rates unchanged, and they will reinvest maturing pepp bonds at least through the end of 2024. it conducts app at a pace of 40 billion euros per month i

clear is that this is a night to remember for the supporters of gustavo theater in his last decent correlation and historic result that confirms that he will be the candidate to be in the upcoming presidential elections in may. and he said that i just need a book that ah, hello again. the headlines on al jazeera, an apartment block and ukraine's capital has been hit and damage killing. at least one person emergency services pulled several survivors from the building in the avalon ski district. and keep in mind, con is at the scene in keith. it was just after 5 in the morning when not hillary shell hit the entrance of the building. we think it's got hillary so now that's the entrance of a residential building here in the north of keefe. when you take a look at the damage, you can still actually smell the burning. now rescue efforts, i'll still continue and see how the foreign in there with the ladder going up. they still comb through the building to see if there are any more bodies inside. we are hearing that at least one person has been killed. you can in official say they're doing everything

so, you know, we were talking earlier about the correlation between community and crime. when we increase community, we decrease crime. when we decrease crime, we make the city a more pleasant place to visit which increases business and community which decreases crime. we've got to start the fly wheels spinning on positive reinforcement and i just can't thank the professor enough for coming in. i'm sorry. vice president zouzounis, i didn't see that you -- >> vice president zouzounis: i was going to ask if we were going to have a commissioner discussion or if the only times for public comment was public comment. >> president laguana: we can absolutely have a conversation. now's the time. >> vice president zouzounis: if professor sharkey's interested in talking a specific san francisco context, i'd like to bring it there and i'd like to state my understanding police enforce laws and they enforce property relations, so we can't also talk about policing in the abstract outside of what their tasked to enforce. even in a city like ours that has a lot of funds and charitable cau

if you look at history, you see that inflation is not correlated with the s&p 500, for example. of course, it's correlated with fixed income but what you have to do is figure that where are people going to go as a safe haven from europe that's america america is the place to be the u.s. dollar is the place to be so i think the u.s. will do fairly well. the market is not doing well it's down. but i don't think it's going to stay down. i think you're going to see recovery and i think inflation with those companies are able to price their products in the inflationary environment they'll do very well and you know a lot of them are like that, in that category. >> yeah. and that's good news for the debt it's going to keep the longer term borrowing costs down. on the dollar, you think those -- that attraction of flows is going to keep the dollar higher? isn't that normally a head wind for the emerging markets >> well, yeah. that is -- in some cases a head wind for some emerging markets i mentioned in dollar terms, brazil and south africa are up that's even accounting the local currenci

to this position in comparison to crime dramas out there, i would say there might be some minor correlations't hollywood, we are real world. yes we collect evidence. we want to preserve that. we are not scanning fingerprints in the field like a hollywood television show. >> families say thank you for what you do, for me that is extremely fulfilling. somebody has to do my job. if i can make a situation that is really negative for someone more positive, then i feel like i am doing the right thing for the city of san francisco. >> everything we do in the tenderloin, we urban outfit. here, this gives us an opportunity to collaborate with other agencies and we become familiar with how other agencies operate and allow us to be more flexible and get better at what we depo in the line of work in this task. >> sometimes you go down and it's hard to get up. so we see ourselves as providing an opportunity for the unhoused to get up. and so i really believe that when they come here and they've said it, this right here is absolutely needed. you can't ask for nothing better. >> the tenderloin is the stuff

that correlation is still there, not necessarily as strong as it was a couple months ago. when you see what happens on wednesday with the fed announcement, not just whether we get a rate hike, but whether they decide to be more aggressive, go with 50 basis points. whether they communicate going forward there is a scenario that we could see eight hikes this year and may be a faster drawdown of that balance sheet. >> hopped back into the conversation. i am curious, we are looking at commodity shop. it seemed like the geopolitical situation was outweighing the hawkish fed. do we anticipate comments from chairman powell on that shock? romaine: pop -- ira: i think it is unclear. they will continue to monitor the situation. i think the answer to the question that is likely to get asked is that the federal reserve can only do so much. the federal reserve controls the demand side of the balance sheet. the fed basically can only drive us into a recession to get inflation lower. it can only stop demand. i was looking this morning at the number of gallons of gasoline sold because of

correlation does not equal causation. just because the stock split. we're hold on amazon.t is one of our largest positions i don't think we'll see the robust growth because of this split. amazon still has to drive revenue top line and bottom line. charles: our subscribers own it although, this move didn't make me too happy. i got a minute to go. let me squeeze this in with both you guys, long-term investors. here is the dilemma. stay in good names we talked about. you guys mentioned also while mitigating the big drops, from 2007 to 2021, large cap significantly outperformed the overall market only number one one ever those years. an 2008 cash was the best performer. david, coming back to you, how do you thread this needle? again, holding these names when sometimes being in cash is the best thing, taking big hits, how do you get people to endure these periods? >> yeah that's right. it is hard, right? buying the dip is not a one-day event, it's a mindset. charles we've been buying the dip on the way down. we're not telling our clients we'll catch the bottom. we're buying ind