courtney reagan, cnbc business n news. >> let's get to the senior portfolio manager ben emons.t seems a couple of trends popped up this week in a sense that ecommerce and retail is an out performer. spending on big ticket items which is less pronounced from previous years putting it all together, what does this tell you about the health of the u.s. consumer right now? >> the health is holding in because the consumer has opportunities to substitute. that is why we are not seeing the broad p weakness coming through. as courtney is highlighting the specifics of walmart earnings and if people are able to still spend on ecommerce and food and make a substitution or decisions in non discretionary items, the picture doesn't change that is what the retail sales numbers show on tuesday. it is the health of the consumers that we talk about and we are worrying about savings shrinking. that theme is not playing out here what we see from walmart and target is the u.s. economy is not in recession at all. in fact, it is growing >> yeah. that is certainly appearing to be the take away if you t

courtney reagan filed this report >> reporter: target is exp expressing concern after the first quarterearnings were stronger, but sales were flat for the quarter and digital sales were negative for the second straight quarter. target said inventory loss is more than $500 million more this year than last year. making loss more than $1 panhbillio in two years it is impacted by organized crime theft. target is reaffirming the full year guidance as sales weakened. beauty, food and beverage and household essentials sold better than discretionary the chief growth officer told reporters that the con pkconsum under pressure and run out of savings and this is having an impact on choices and trading off. courtney reagan, cnbc business news >> target comes on hot numbers from home depot with the worst a revenue miss in years. walmart is reporting today just to pick up on the discussion yesterday we had home depot results, but not target target, i guess, on the margin is better than what the market had been anticipating. if you go by the reaction of the u.s. retail stocks yesterday, i wanted to pi

joining us now with more, is courtney reagan. what are you watching for today?ets are relatively flat. some are waffling between gains and losses. the markets are expecting a quarter point interest rate hike. it would mark the tenth interest rate hike since march of 2022, the new benchmark borrowing rate will be between 5% and 5.25%. the reason the fed is trying to raise rates is to raise the rate of inflation, the rate of inflation is falling, it's still above where the fed wants it to be. raising interest rates makes the cost of borrowing money to buy a home or a car, is less attractive to borrow money. the idea is raising rates has a cooling effect on the economy, which should bring prices down. the big question is, what happens next? what does the fed do from here? will it signal a pause in this interest rate hike stretch trend because of what's going on more broadly with the economy slowing down and potentially the worries in the regional banking sector? >> this comes as two regional banks are re-igniting the fears about this. is the banking sector feeling

>> courtney, thank you courtney reagan. karen, you have this >> i do, yes the lord giveth, the lord taketh away it wasn't a terrible quarter, but this is a stock that expects better, right? and actually their guidance going forward was a little bit below the street, so, the gross margin was a little light, which isn't good it's -- i think that shrinkage is in the gross margin, so, there's that their expenses were really the part that was most disappointing to me. i don't know if expenses of trying to prevent theft is what's in there. that was disappointing the store count growth was lower than i thought i don't know if that made them pause, i mean, it wasn't terrible, but the stock, you know, went from a 19 p.e. to maybe now, i don't know 17 p.e., depending on where -- guy has been all over this, the charts -- >> we talk offline, karen and i, about ulta >> and the chart looking terrible and so it's broken through that resistance that you pointed out. i mean, i'm long -- i'm disappointed i got to go back and hear the call an

plus, courtney reagan on lows, and frank holland looking ahead to palo alto earnings there in "overtimeorrible, but, you know, rates were higher. you have the headlines that we were telling you about at the beginning of the show about china. >> yeah. >> and tech taking a breather. it all leads right across the board. >> the setting was overbought. nasdaq coming in we knew he needed to cool off. what would the response be by the rest of the market i think the top of the range which is where we are, 4,200, and haven't been able to close it you can accept less bad news, and you need more good news to keep us there or get us further. i think that the slowdown dynamics coming out of china, not too surprising china's been trading weak, but if you see it in the u.s. market with, you know, starbucks having an outsized decline, china, and clearly some of that anxiety is starting to price in, and part of it is the rest of the world was supposed to be a net help to the economy globally, and you see the equity markets in europe and in japan in particular kind of confirm that idea that something goo

courtney reagan. karen, put this together with the walmart results?ry consistent the consumer is still there, they do have money to spend, they seem to be a little bit cautious though ross stores, it sounds like maybe a little sandbagging there, because target talked about may not really being much better than april and march was bad, so -- but we're seeing this sort of tradedown value-oriented, which, when you're walmart and you have that scale and you have that offering of groceries, you can do it. so, the consumer's still there i'd like to see us get out of what happened in march it will be next quarter before we really get a sense, i think, of -- is the debt ceiling issue solved do people feel better about banks? do they feel better about the fed and they'rre not being a recession? i think the consumer is still there, but definitely more, you know, this is better for walmart than, i think, it is for target. >> the extreme moves within consumer continue. we know home builders are at record highs restaurant stocks in general look at the reaction fro

i'm courtney reagan in for melissa lee.s sopgss action live from the maz nasdaq market site the market could be holding on rather than holding firm both sides are telling different stories about the economy chchlt is more like correct >> it's about stocks in up trends and down trends think about a mcdonald's or lily or hershey on a six month basis, they're making new six-month highs and then they exact opposite, you have alcoa, u.s. steel, city bank at six month lows all down 15% to 20% 3,000 basis points a spread. independent tech, what it represents is people clustering into fewer and fewer names some can say, so what? at some point the steep and uncorrected stocks are full, rich, expensive. weak stocks are telling a message about the economy. we're sitting here in international favor, 52-week low. u.s. steel, goes on and on that's a different picture than the picture of the market. the market looks like it is quiet. it's in a range but it's not we have a few charts with he can look at them quickly. the sequencing since t

swinging around lately and we're taking a swing at deere, also slated to report next week i'm courtney reagann this week for melissa lee. on the desk tonight, mike khouw, carter worth, and brian stutland from one perspective, the market looks resilient, enduring hit after hit. but from a different perspective it could also be on life support, holding on rather than holding firm there's a bifurcation within the market and both sides are telling very different stories about the economy. so, which is more likely correct? what does similar history support, carter worth lays it out for us. >> bifurcation is a circumstance, not about concentration of market big cap names, it's stocks on steep up trends independent attack, mcdonald's or lily or hershey new six month highs of 15 and 20%. and exact opposite u.s. steel, city bank, 3 m at 6 month lows all down 15 and 0%. 3,000 basis points of spread independent attack what it represents is people clustering into fewer and fewer names as others continue to get worse, and one can say so what, that's why the market's unchanged, some winning, some losing bu

courtney reagan joins us now with more. >> frank, good morning target is taking a risk. organized retail crime since 2019 the cfo told me shrink from theft is the biggest issue this quarter. theft shrink has been called out by walmart and target and dick's and ross stores in recent months it is hard to know exactly how big the issue is this week, eric adams said retail theft was up 42% from a year prior and an it is increasing and the annual law survey estimates the retail shrink was $3.7 billion more in 2021 than 2020. why is this happening? it makes it easier to sell on social media and thieves change and create accounts and profiles online options drive items resold and not necessarily the most expensive the inform act goes into effect on june 27th requiring online markets to collect and disseminate seller information orc rings instructing criminals to steal below the threshold in many areas which is between $1,000 and $1,500 in many states areas with higher thresholds have higher cases of orc retailers instruct employees not to intervene for safety reasons. a home de

walmart is set to report on thursday courtney reagan follows the company, joins us now. lmart has been a safe port in the storm certainly in the stock market. what do expectations look like for earnings zeets that i good point. walmart shares have definitely outperformed when you look at either the xlp, the consumer staples, or the xrt, the broader retail etf but it is certainly a consumer staple in a lot of senses. as you know, the over index in grocery, more than half of their sales are from grocery, which is important to remember for a number of reasons. number one, while it is profitable, it is a lower margin than general merchandise walmart has told us that they have seen more grocery sales, which, of course, does help drive foot steps and drives repeat shopping trips but at a lower margin it's also important to know that the end of the emergency s.n.a.p. benefits are ending and walmart called that out. that's important to remember numerator looked at this and said, actually, shoppers are buying fewer groceries as a result of that i think that's important to remember

. >>> over to courtney reagan for the cnbc news update. >> reporter: here is your cnbc news update.nied migrant child in the custody of the department of health and services has died. this as u.s. agencies work to handle the influx of migrants following the expiration of title 42 >>> russia is rejecting claims after a ukrainian break through in the battle for bakhmut. russia appeared to concede they've lost ground, but say it's under control they claim a ukrainian counteroffensive has begin. >>> the entire population of a small town in switzerland is being evacuated due to an impending rock slide the 100 odd residents have been told to leave as a huge chunk of a mountain could collapse as soon as next week. hopefully everyone heeds those warnings kelly, back to you. >> i would not stick around. >> how do you know how much to pack where do you go? >> just get a go back at this point. get out of there and wait a couple days. >> i guess courtney, thank you. >>> still to come on "power lunch," trading the consumer big retail names expected to report next week 'll ade those names in a fr

. >> let's get to courtney reagan for a cnbc news update >> thank you, tyler.e is your cnbc news update at this hour. florida governor ron desantis signed a slate of controversial bills today. they ban gender affirming care for minors and gender-affirming prone nouns and they have a super majority in both chambers and they are anti-lgbtq. l elizabeth holmes and sunny balwani will have to pay $452 million in restitution to the victims of their climbs and it was a last-minute man uf toreer to defer >> breaking his own mprevious record he guided a foreign climber. his first summit was in 1994 kelly, back over to you. >> i'm never doing that. >> what a guy. >> i love how tyler is so supportive and courtney and i are, like, no way. the home debate heating up again and many workers aren't happy with it. elon musk says working from home is morally wrong we'll discuss next “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all y

. >>> let's get to courtney reagan for the cnbc news update. >> thanks, kelly here's your update at this three crew members are missing after a tanker fire off the southern coast of malaysia there were 28 crew members on board and 23 were saved. the cause of the incident is under investigation. >>> five environmental and cultural heritage groups are suing the faa over spacex. the groups allege that the agency violated the national environment policy act when it allowed spacex to launch its starship rocket. the launch hurling debris thousands of feet away into a sensitive habitat and sparked a fire on state park lands near the launch site. >>> democratic senator ben cardin of maryland is expected to announce his retirement after serving three terms. it's likely to create a democratic primary to replace him as the party faces a tough electorate map to maintain its slim majority next year. tyler, back over to you. >> thank you very much. >>> still to come, mattel and hasbro taking off the kid gloves the company is delivering mixed results but announcing some key licensing agreements we'll s

along with retail sales coming in a little bit lower than expected though they were positive courtney reagan has more on all this hi, courtney >> hi, tyler so it was home epot's first earnings decline since may of 2020 and disappointing revenue, that marks actually the biggest miss in more than 20 years for the company. it was also the second straight quarter of comparable sales declines before we saw that last quarter the last negative comp number was 12 years ago lundberg inflation took two percentage points off of sales and cold wet weather also hurt that metric. but ceo ted decker called out, quote, broad-based pressure, which cfo richard mcfail tells me includes softness in big ticket discretionary items, things like patio sets, grills and appliances with potentially some pull forward of demand and home owners shifting to smaller projects instead of bigger ones like flooring, kitchen and bath. more broadly, though, mcfail notes a sift from goods to services saying home owners have healthy balance sheets but there's an impact of tighter monetary policy and credit conditions on the call h

. >>> welcome back i'm courtney reagan. here's your cnbc news update at this hour.will send over 1,000 troops to the u.s.-mexico border ahead of an expected migrant surge following tend of a coronavirus pandemic-era restriction now, the military personnel will do data entry and other administrative tasks so customs and border protection can focus on field work. the troops will be sent down for roughly 90 days, though their presence can be extended if necessary. >>> interstate 55 reopened in illinois following a 70-car pileup that left multiple dead and more than 30 others injured. the pile-up came after a dust storm reduced visibility in the area state police say excessive winds blew dirt from farm fields across the interstate. >>> some like it hot, leading the way in the tony award nominations. the musical pulling in 13 nominations, including a nod for best musical three other musicals got nine nominations. kelly, i haven't seen any of them back to you. >> i'm with you. try to keep tony -- tony is broadway >> yeah. >> got it. >> last i saw was "a beautiful noise" w

>> and later, what's got shares of carvana all revved up a 65% rebound over the past week i'm courtney reagan in this evening for melissa lee, this is "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site on the desk tonight, tim see your, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adaadami. president biden meeting at the white house with congressional leaders. they've been at it for just under an hour. the white house pool was in the oval office. the president said he wouldn't take any questions, and ignored reporters asking him and house speaker mccarthy if they would cut a deal to prevent a debt default. investors on edge. the major averages closing the day slightly lower the dow now down six of the last seven sessions let's get more on today's meeting and the behind the scenes wrangling on the debt ceiling from nbc white house monica alba. >> that's right, courtney. the white house and the president firm, they don't want to be negotiating at all when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. they believe is co this is congress's constitutional duty. so, this is a meeting that, of course, is taking place fac

incredible stuff on the retail front, though, a little bit different story let's get over to courtney reaganwhere lowe's investors are shrugging off a dour forecast >> shares of lowe's slightly higher here and it's perhaps because it was a bit expected after we heard from competitor home depot and their results lowe's did lower their expectations for the full year for earnings, revenues and same-store sales but it did beat the street's first quarter estimates for erin aings and revenue. like home depot lowe's was hit by lumber deflation, bad spring weather and lower discretionary purchasing leading to disappointing comparable sales for the quarter. dick's sporting goods beating, missing slight liu on the same-store sales growth. the sporting goods retailer reaffirming its full-year forecast and looking for margin yum prochlt. executive chairman ed stack tells me he's cautiously optimistic for the balance of the year dick's sporting goods shares losing momentum down 1%. b.j.'s wholesale also reaffirms full-year guidance counting on continued strength and n. grocery and improvement in general

organized retail crime target isn't alone in its fight against this problem foot locker mentioned it courtney reagan, courtney >> it's been happening for a long time and seems to be getting worse. walmart's cfo rainy told me organized retail crime is an issue bigger than just the retail industry. target is taking the step of quantifying loss from shrink being driven by this type of theft. home depot has been call out material levels of shrink since 2019 the quarter's biggest pressure on gross margin. dick's sporting goods, lowe's, macy and ross stores have called out theft related shrink the national retail federation estimated shrink costs retailers $95 billion in 2021. that was $3.7 billion more than 2020 with 37% of that total or about $35 billion, from orc. now 71% of retailers surveyed by the loss prevention research council say orc has increased 81% report somewhat or much more violence associated with it. this week, new york city mayor adams said retail theft 44% last year over 2021 with repeat offenders responsible for a nearly third of all arrests. the median orc fencing operation handled a

courtney reagan has more on what to expect. >> if reading the consumer was a game of red light, greenretailers are flashing yellow. the remainder of the year looks murky. the discretionary categories like home, apparel, electronics were soft. walmart and target isn't promising for kohl's gap, best buy, american eagle and abercrombie. cole's has a new ceo and gap hasn't named an executive. home depot citing conservingtive projects and poor weather trends, concerning for lowe's results out later than home depot by about a week. shares tumbled after the quarter leading some analysts to lower expectations for dick's sporting goods but merchandise mix is for nike dick's has had steadier sales trajectory with a tenured leadership also foot locker's shoppers lower income footwear and the group that is the group that is most pressured as we watch conditionslle in focus of those reporting this week lowe's, dick's, bestamon those that have called that out as an issue in recent quarters morgan >> courtney, thank you >>> we're going to stick with retail companies reporting shrinkage of inventory

courtney reagan joins us with more court, this is a serious issue which has been happening a long time spoke about home depot >> exactly target spoke out home depot has noted a material hit from organized retail crime since 2019 cfo told mae shrink from theft s a big deal it is an issue that is bigger than the retail industry theft related crshrink is called out by dick's and ross as well as walmart stores. orc has increased with the biggest increase in pennsylvania, maryland and delaware and california and an alaska and washington and mississippi. eric adams in new york said it was up 44% from the year prior the survey estimates the shrink was $3.76 billion more in 2021 than 2020 with 37% of shrink linked to organized retail crime. why is this happening? online marketplace and social media and peer-to-peer apps are harder to police thieves create online accounts quickly. further, orc rings instruct criminals to steal below the threshold of $1,000 and $1,500 in many states retailers often instruct employees not to intervene for safety purposes. a home depot employee in california confr

coming up -- courtney reagan is like this is why i don't come on set. >> what would it like we did inthings stand and evolve if we did if go meet kevin mayer on a show that's called -- >> the host is not only hand sumsome but incredibly -- >> that's a little too much. >> you're not wrong money kevin mayer used to run tiktok we'll talk about social mea,di media, everything in between catch "last call" every night, 7 p.m. eastern "squawk box" will be right back. e who live and work there grow and thrive. we're proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move everyone's financial goals forward. pnc bank. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. >>> all right, welcome back. fears of a government default or lack of pa

courtney reagan will join us to break down what companies are saying about guidance. >>> and shrinkageo "squawk box. a number of retail companies updating guidance and talking shrinkage. that's the topic of the morning. can we get the george -- >> i was going to say. it's so hard -- >> video or is that a fair use thing. >> i was in the water. retail results and mixed shopping bag to start the year with lots of uncertainty for the rest of 2023 many retailers like gap and kohl's had margins holding up thanks to lower freight costs and largely avoiding heavy discounting. the lowest level we have seen in years for discounting. inventory positions improved retailers controlled cost pretty well stores continue to see resurgence with more retailers reporting stronger in-store performance than digital sales best buy an example. lvmh strong sales in asia and u.s. was weaker. shoppers are still buying household essentials, food and cosmetics but holding off on discretionary purchases, apparel, home goods, electronics and toys increasing shrink in many cases from organized retail crime is becomin

let's get those results from courtney reagan. >> thank you, and good to see you, becky dick's sportingand it's tkr driven by a tax revenue. comparable sales up 3.4%, and that's a bit below consensus estimates. and the athletic retailer is reaffirming its full year earnings and sales forecast. and there's some delusion in the earnings in the acquisition from walmart and the tax benefit i mentioned is why dick's sporting goods is only affirming the forecast and not beating it. he is cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year. under armour said it had merchandise to sale, and in fact stack said dick's sporting goods didn't have to promote to drive sales and all of its customer segments have done, quote, pretty well for us we have not seen people trading down as of yet but we know it's possible it was flat compared to last year but came in better than expected a different story for dick's than what we had coming out of footlocker >> the sports craze has not ended? >> it has not ended. stack did say he did see pull forward from some of the core outdoor activity kind of items like k