cpi is an austerity measure.orkers. that is the plan. by taking out things like your mortgage and the rail fares currently there. you can't pay your bills. you can't pay your gas bills. you can't say you're not going to pay the rpi. use a cpi is an austerity measure but it's actually the measure that is used from most other public sector pay rises. in general, average earnings have gone up by 2.7%. average earnings are trailing inflation, they are even trailing cpi. we can't have a race to the bottom. we aren't responsible for the financial crisis. we are not responsible for the mess that is a privatised railway system where hundreds of millions of pounds are extracted every year and put in the pockets of shareholders and the absolute parasites like richard branson, who pay no tax off the back of it. why should workers suffer when these people refuse to pay their taxes? the rail delivery group says eve ryo ne the rail delivery group says everyone panca ked the rail delivery group says everyone pancaked in fares,

rather than the rpi which at the cpi rather than the rpi which at the moment the cpi stands at aroundected to be around 3.5%. you can see the logic but why would unions agree to this? unions have said there is absolutely no way they will take this lying down. but of course nhs workers, their pay increases are already measured using the cpi and chris grayling believes the cpi and chris grayling believes the transport sector should also ta ke the transport sector should also take their share of the pain. but the rail unions say there's no way because this will effectively amount toa because this will effectively amount to a pay cut for rail workers going forward and that's simply not something they will take lying down. is there any prospect of a fear freeze? plenty of mp‘s calling for one. i don't think that's on the cards. to keep the railways going and to improve the destruction that that being faced there is a lot of work that needs to be done. thank you forjoining us. your‘re watching business live. our top story — in a few hours from now the chinese tech giant tencent announces it

these two rates were talking about, rpi are slightly higher than cpi. what's going on here.s out in serious financial costs, so you have rpi, 3.2% in the year tojuly, and cpi, the official measure which is only 2.596, the official measure which is only 2.5%, you might say to me, that's only 0.8% difference, why is that so important? the answer is compound interest. if you look at it over the yea rs, interest. if you look at it over the years, it makes a difference. if cpi had been used to upgrade railfares rather than rpi, rail fares had been used to upgrade railfares rather than rpi, railfares would now be 17% lower if that had happened since 2004, 17% lower. a la weekly pay has gone up 18% and rail fa res by weekly pay has gone up 18% and rail fares by 42%. there are inconsistencies too because the biggest single austerity measure taken was the government switching from rpi to cpi, the lower measure, to upgrade public sector pensions. that took billions off pensioners and save the government billions and that was just moving between these two geeky indexes of inflation, so

krishna: ppi, cpi. effectively learning about the u.s. inflation outlook.t anything new on that front, but it would be a confirmation that despite relatively good growth inflation is not picking up measurably. mary: we are watching a lot of the same you are. as well, we are right in the heart of high-yield earnings that have been pretty well received. we will continue to watch that. jonathan: to what extent have the outperformance over the last couple of months come from the scarcity of supply and the fundamentals, the earnings of some of these companies? mary: it is both. the technical, that does feel kind of like a weak reason to hold high-yield. if we were to see a return to supply, given we have not seen a return of inflows, they could see some spread widening. as we alluded to earlier, everyone is waiting to buy the debt. the spreads continue to be prearranged. jonathan: it is funny. terms, cashliched on the sidelines. but there is a lot of cash sitting there and waiting for a downturn. bryce: right. there is a lot of nervousness. this year has been pr

rpi tends to be higher than cpi.sing costs. they are also calculate a differently. cpi assumes that if something gets more expensive google will buy something cheaper. cpi generally is the more trusted measure. not that many people use rpi any more. a few years ago the ons looked at some housing costs but they are struggling to get a measure of inflation that recounts the people's cost of living. while the inflation figure tells us when we look backwards what prices have done it‘s also very useful for is looking forward because it‘s the one the bank of england keeps an eye on. it likes inflation be a 2% and if it ru ns likes inflation be a 2% and if it runs higher an increase in interest rates tend to be on the cards. that's right. given that cpi did rise this month they are closely following it. they expected the end of that. they bring things like transport costs and computer games. they still predict inflation will keep falling. they are looking at are coming down to their target of 296 are coming down to their ta

jonathan: krishna, really quickly, that focus on ppi over cpi?na: the point that bryce is making is a good one. having said that, i think the -- our expectation remains that inflation is very subdued. jonathan: guys, you know what time it is. it is time for the final round, the rapidfire round, where i ask quick final questions and get some quick answers. who will blink first in the $1 trillion trade war emerging between the united states and china? the u.s. or china? mary: china. krishna: both. bryce: china. jonathan: the bank of england's -- we did not even mention it this week -- we have a rate hike. is the next move from the bank of england a rate hike or a rate cut? mary: a rate hike, but next year. krishna: nothing. jonathan: stay neutral forever? krishna: they should not have raised rates this time. bryce: they have to go higher. they need some cushion in case brexit goes poorly. jonathan: really, really, quickly, what do we see first on the 10-year treasury? haven't done this for a while. around 3%, 3.5%, or 2.5%? mary: 2.50. krishna: 2.5

to five basis points below the cpi number.u adjust average hourly earnings, which we have been talking a lot about, we talked a lot about that on jobs day, for inflation, you see inflation now running ahead of average hourly earnings. they went down 2/10 of 1% during the month so people are losing ground in their earnings to inflation. that has not happened in a very long time and it is not something that will be appreciated by many voters if this continues. julie: the question is, is it going to continue? we have sort of this slow move upward in inflation and there is the thinking that if we continue to see the trade war back-and-forth, that could potentially be more inflationary as well. julie: we should see -- michael: we should see some inflation from the trade war. real question is the labor market, how tight can it get for how long before that 2.9% inflation figure is eclipsed by average hourly earnings which are running only at 2.7%? when did that move higher because employers are having to pay up? julie: we have been w

we do see an uptick in terms of cpi. foods 0.8%, also a little less than next acted. 0.9% was the consensus survey. month ofatch the prior 0.8% as well. aboutests will join us in 15 minutes time. it's get more on what is happening with asia-pacific markets. we will bring in sophie kamaruddin. trade talks have wrapped up without much apparent progress. trump praised tariffs. how can this feed into this busy week? where: the question is, to from here when it comes to the u.s. china dynamic russian mark -- china dynamic? officials had raised that -- what not be held until the u.s. elections in november. , weoutcome of the talks have the japanese cpi data coming in as well. nikkei futures pointing higher for now and pressure coming through for the kospi potentially. australia, we are seeing him uptick there. we are seeing downward pressure on aussie dollar. .aking a look at the agenda expected to pick up slightly. we also have reaction to alibaba's earnings that would be closely watched after its earnings miss. look at the o

we get retail data and data coming out of the eurozone, including cpi and a lot on the u.k.ncluding retail sales and cpi. still with me, kathy jones, joel levington, and kathleen gaffney. this week, there is a news flow with important moves from the most talented portfolio manager on the planet, dan iversen, trying to separate away from the central bank they have provided -- the accommodation they provided to the central bank for many years. we think this means lower return and higher volatility. this creates a more challenging investment environment. is it time to get defensive? >> that has been one of our themes. as the central banks tighten monetary policy, the era of easy money is ending and that is going to raise volatility and make it tougher to get those big outsized returns without risk premium. we think markets have to reprice because risk premium is tight. jonathan: a big concern is liquidity and you have seen some examples start to build up where there is not enough liquidity. is that a concern for you? >> absolutely. i think we are going to see more of it and it

cpi inflation is lower, so i mean it is a lower cost. and some things have moved from rpi to cpi.om an economic perspective it does make sense to use the newer one. however, clearly if the prices are still going up by 3% and wages are going up by 2%, then consumers or wage earners are losing out. the average pay packet for the boss of a ftse 100 company went up to almost 4 million pounds last year. that's a rise of ii%. and much higher than average workers' wage increases of 2.7%. there's been criticism from investors, unions and government about excessive salaries. the hr industry group the chartered institute of personnel and development also found bosses' pay was on average 145 times more than their employees. joining us now is luke hildyard, director of the high pay centre. grosicki director of the high pay centre. is good to have yo| us. grosicki is good to have you with us. so, what is behind this rise? well, i think a lot of it is to do with biases and conflicts of interest in the pacesetting process. now, the way executive pay is set is that you have a remuneration committ

including cpi. retail sales. cpi. a whole lot more.s week, there is a news flow with a really important news from one of the most talented portfolio managers on the planet. now, the major central banks are trying to set -- step away. their influence is being quickly replaced by that of politics for both equity and fixed income investors. we think this means low returns. and higher volatility. space, energies kind of fans out as being a little bit wider. communication with at&t and verizon makeup so much. on the short end of the curve is where he appreciates playing. >> great to catch up with you. kathy, john. and kathleen. that does it for us from new york, we will see you next friday at 1:00 p.m. 6:00 p.m. in london. this was bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg tv. ♪ this isn't just any moving day. this is moving day with the best in-home wifi experience and millions of wifi hotspots to help you stay connected. and this is moving day with reliable service appointments in a two-hour window so you're up and running in no time. show

as far as the data next week, we might be focusing on that more than the cpi. which is not typical. ppi number, it has risen up to 2.8% year-over-year. lossombine that with some of slack and the labor market. those are the two components you need to see inflation react seven rate again. it has not moved up from a must no inflation to 2%. for it to accelerate again, we need to see the manufacturing prices as well as labor costs go up.efore cpi goes even then, it probably won't be significant until the year and. after that, all the cash off the sidelines will come back in and we see the 10 year yield get up higher. that will be what it takes to entice them to come back into the market. the point is a really good one. having said that, i think if our expectation remains that inflation is very subdued. jonathan: time for the final round. rapidfire round. i ask you quick questions and get quick answers. who will blink first and the trillion dollar trade war, u.s., or china? >> china. >> both. >> china. jonathan: the bank of england, a rate hike. -- rate hike. is the next move a rate hike

we have seen some cpi indications they may go up. proctor and gamble saying it was raising prices because of tariffs. does that show up? agricultural prices go down, oil prices down, so there were offsets. we stay in this 2% rate. alix: we have that good ten-year auction yesterday despite we did not get a three handle. are we now playing eight lower inflation and not that pick up? >> the u.s. is one of the places we are seeing stronger growth and potentially the inflation that would warrant the continued steps of a but central banks across the world, ecb and boe, boj as well, in terms of allowing bond prices to rise, even though the inflation outlook's are more uncertain. central banks around the world are still trying to normalize and stick with this. ,ging and optimization something the world has not seen before in terms of what that would do to wage growth and jobs. alix: let's just say normalization. david: i don't know where normal is anymore. alix: that is an existential question. thank you both very much. usek out all the char

we would indicate it would go lower before the cpi number came out.seems like it was pretty much on target. you're getting to the point where the core is above the fed's target you know, the question is how comfortable are they letting it ride that way and staying relatively gradual i think the whole questions are being pushed out for the first half of 2019 it seems like september and most likely december will be hikes and then reevaluate after that. >> interesting how steve liesman reported yesterday that the betting and positioning changed since jay powell said he's going to do a conference a news conference at every single meeting because the old rule was you did not expect them to do anything when they weren't going to have a news conference. now they have a news conference for every single meet, with every single is hot. >> live, as they say >>> more discussion about two things one, the spurt in growth over value. last few sessions. up until today, obviously. and the journal looks at evaluations trending at the lowest levels of the year the last

cpi two tenths of a percent.se are some of the fastest inflation growth was seen in a long time. cpi would be the fastest growth since 2012. could we get some price on the upside? more inflation percolating through the economy then analysts expect? >> inflations have been tricky. it wasn't so long ago. i would say there's a possibility. this is ultimately good. a long way away from inflation becoming a problem in our economy 2% from a 3% inflation is a healthy, long-term, much harder for the u.s. gerri: would then sell it without inflation that nobody knows what it looks like or how to think about it. david, would you see for the fed's favorite inflation measure? they are not looking at toppling cpi, ppi. they are delving into the nutters. >> the key number for them is wages. two by 7% right now and frankly we have to do a lot other than that. i don't think these numbers are alarming. i would agree with michael on that. energy is a big part of these numbers and there is a cap on energy. the cartel like structure

and hover said around 28 i don't know that cpi is going to be hot or not tomorrow. but i guarantee you this, that if we do get a hot number i think that is the issue that keeps us, you know, from being on the north side of 3%. there's a lot of reasons to buy treasuries and at some point one of the main reasons not to sell them is that we're all nervous about inflation. we have a pretty good idea it's anything at us, but it's just the urgency. and that is of course what cpi can change just in a couple of minutes tomorrow morning >> tony, if inflation spikes and with it fed expectations for hikes raise could that derail the equity markets >> let's say that happens and the yield curve diverts in the next 15 minutes, what happens is the market trade is up in the next seven cycles a median of 18% and in the last three sick cycles you're up 34% at 22 months with a recession not happening for -- you could get a lot of volatility. also to be clear we're going to have more volatility we had a nice decline in the beginning of february. it's what do you do with it, and current

the rate of cpi inflation was 2.5% up from 2.496 in of cpi inflation was 2.5% up from 2.4% injune ofinflation was 2.5% up from 2.4% injune according to the office for national statistics. and the other rate, because we use two methods as you know, the rate of retail price index inflation, which is used to set real season—ticket prices in britain was 3.2%. the man being held on suspicion of terrorism after yesterday's incident outside parliament has been named by government sources as salih khater, a 29—year—old british citizen originally from zidane who lives in birmingham —— from sudan. he is not believed to have been known to m15 or counterterrorism officers, police are searching in the midlands. let's look at what happened yesterday morning. at around 7.30 am, a silver ford fiesta swerved into cyclists and pedestrians outside parliament. three people were hurt — one seriously. the car then careered off the main road into an area with security bollards. moments later it crashed into a barrier. armed police immediately surrounded the driver and his car. two people were treated in ho

we've hardly mentioned cpi in the u.s. there goes the bell.re down 185 points on the dow at the close the low was over 200 points. so we're just off the lows here at it close. that does it for the first hour of "the closing bell." michelle, back to you. >>> and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera in for kelly evans. here's how we're finishing the day on the wall street the dow jones industrial average finished about 186 points, off the lows nasdaq was down two thirds of a percent. and we're going to tell you where to find some safe havens coming up we'll get to that in a second joining us today mike santoli and also is evan newmark leading the dow was 3m and century link was the week's leader and remember we have a lot ofects poseur to the tariffs. so much for the quiet. we got a crisis scare to help push the averages lower. >> i wouldn't necessarily say the start of something big kind of this flutter of global financial stress struck a market that really lost a bit of energy the s&p was up 6% in six weeks really it slow

. >> nice to be here 8:30 we got cpi coming out.at is going to impact the fed they have got a very important meeting cooling up in september, so this is going to be one of their critical data points, three month running youthfuled average 1.7% under target. >> that is kor runs -- in february we got above 3%. >> i remember that. >> right. >> so that is but they like to now getting in weeds like to look at pce indicator, a personal consumption. >> very tame. >> very tame. >> all numbers are really tame right are you really even though wages up almost 3% 20% year-over-year not seeing inflation are we. >> we are not one of the reasons two types services federation, and the other side of the coin manufacturing side of the inflation, which is really seeing inflation, right when we see cost of metals go up the 13ek a hard measure. >> also important to note wages are growing, you know we got that report on wage growth, running at fastest pace 10 years wages growing faster than inflation so people are feeling -- >> going up. >> right that is

tariffs would increase the cpi.ve a strengthening dollar, which helps to defuse that somewhat. i don't think the tariff story is over. i think there is still some impact going forward. this increase is an important factor. appreciation of the tax law change. that will create investment we might not have. that could be inflationary before it is productivity enhancing. then: if you're sitting at fed right now, you are thinking about the things that some of the people have said over the past time, how does this make you feel? mark: if you put the data in perspective, there are continued hikes. it is safe to assume in september we will see another height. seeing the trade data affecting earnings. some companies have mentioned it. when you talk about wage pressure, it is still being passed through. is an acceleration from the 8% we saw in the first quarter. when consensus was expecting q1 to be the peak of earnings, that was quite remarkable. veryottom line is we see healthy economic data in the u.s.. we see inflation pi

didd: it's interesting they not apparently change their cpi forecast. --en the relatively hawkish i thought maybe they would say it's going a little bit faster than we thought. what it says according to bloomberg headlines as they are not changing the forecast. already had it back at target around 2020. are seeing new gdp forecast. we weren't expecting them to see a big change. it will be interesting to see how they are thinking about next year is potentially the year are you have much more clarity. and that has to offset your outlook going forward. we also wondered seeing the pound retracing any kind of losses. it raises the question of what has been priced in. you did see a huge spike in the bond yields. they have come back down. people were looking at the headlines. parsingple are probably now is more that inflation target and the fact that it didn't really change and now you are seeing that reflected not only in the pound and the gilts right now but it's not getting any love to equity markets. get to aing to marketon now where the is really going to

core cpi right now around 2%, boosted it to around 2.5%.ubstantial gain in terms of the way inflation goes and for the consumer, the problem is these are old tariffs with industrial supplies. these are handbags, shampoo, everyday items consumers buy. we have the tariffs on washing machines earlier this year. prices went up 20% in three months. be paying more if tariffs go through in the next few weeks. vonnie: you really think it will happen? three weeks, really? mr. sharif: it could be as soon as next week that if we look back -- we have a roadmap. it took three months for old ones to be implement it. it could be first week of october to the middle of october. the president announced he would put tariffs in place. they may not be implemented for a few more weeks, similar to last time with the $50 billion. vonnie: let's follow that on to the conclusion, 2.5% inflation, great, federal reserve will be pleased. mr. sharif: it will make things more difficult for them because we have seen from michigan data, consumer said suddenly become much mo

the transport secretary chris grayling has suggested linking them to the lower rate of inflation, cpi burridge reports. commuters crammed into a rickety old carriage. i pay just commuters crammed into a rickety old carriage. i payjust over £1000 a year. john has two kids and commutes from outside wigan into manchester. it's absolutely horrendous. sometimes one train turns up, sometimes they don't. now his season ticket could cost an extra £32 next yearin ticket could cost an extra £32 next year in line with inflation. remember, this is august, when things are supposed to be quiet but after half an hour of ourjourney, it was standing room only and remember, these passengers have suffered weeks of disruption with cancellations and delays. at the end of january‘s rail they arise, cancellations and delays. at the end ofjanuary‘s rail they arise, the government has suggested a lower measure of inflation, the consumer price index, rather than the retail price index, should be used in future to produce smaller increases to ticket prices but it says costs, like rail workers wages, should go u

cpi, here's the open and here is sophie. sophie: this is hunkering down for a protracted trade but china said it does not appear sacrificing short-term economic interests. -- hang seng adding .4 of 4% .41%. we are waiting for word on china and we did get the [indiscernible] to a surplus. policymakers will be paying more attention to the balance which is zero and the signals there is less room for currency appreciation. taking a look at what is going on with chinese bond markets, have ring at these 3.5% level as chinese stocks are looking cheap compared to [inaudible] shanghai electric sliding, this a unithe deal to buy from gcl collapsed. housing is in the space, investment policies might be providing some support. checking on hsbc, losing ground by .51%. morgan stanley and goldman adjusted the price target for the bank. sales growth slowed in july, also want to highlight tencent, and kweichow. weakness for gains for tencent. rishaad: thank you. ankara probably getting concerned about the state of its currency at the moment

bas sket of goods and services increased by .2% in july and do to a recognize in cost in shelters the cpi increased. it is watched by the federal reserves and the decision to raise interest rates the nasdaq, the eighth straight day finishing higher and the longest win stream of the year the dow and s&p were mixed and stocks lower on friday and indra nooyi, stepping down just one of 25 women to run a s&p 500. she will be -- next, "on the moy what some students are doing in their dorm rooms to find virtual currency and real profits. >>> and the cost of college going up as is the cost to borrow tips on how to find affordable financing. >>> a look at how the stock market ended the week. >>> when you send your kid off to cheollege, you expect them to gain new skills but you may not expect them to become miners andrea day says that is what they are doing virtual currency in their dorm rooms. >> reporter: day one at penn state in college and he had a mine running in his dorm room. they can use the computers to solve complex math problems and find hidden currency use lots of electricity and can g

, even if you look at the core cpi, it's running at 2.3% a year ago that number was 1.7 wage number,y're up the private sector eci wage number is at its fastest rate since 2008 tame numbers, but starting to move up. unemployment looks like it's trending down. obviously the fed is trying to slow down employment growth. we're getting 2200,000 a month n unemployment, and unemployment keeps falling. >> what about trade? >> it depends where this escala escalates, if retaliation leads to retaliation and more retaliation. we're hearing more worries about it in the ism worths, but the data is still quite strong is there any hard data impact from the trade fears so far? a lot of talk. >> at this point the numbers have held up quite well. even yesterday's jobless claim number, the lowest since 1969. >> are we overfocused on it? >> no, this can become a big issue. so fort tariffs are tiny there's another round in september with china at this point the tariffs are covering a small part of trade >> can the federal reserve bring us down softly >> i think it's a challenge. i think the history of th

cpi in progress on the officer. >> gris was breathing.ushed to north bay medical center where both were anoumsed dead. dead. dead.e grieving officers and family received cop dole eppss. >> he loved what he did. he loved being a chp officer, he loved being a chp motorcycle officer. >> officer chris was said to be very active in his community and the schools. he leaves behind a wife and three children. >> show your support for the chp and the fallen officer through this facebook badge we've >> in stunning mood a judge rejected the two go ship fire amendments. they were on trial for 36 deaths in a fire. abc news reporter explains why the judge suddenly changed his mind. >> following two hours of painful and powerful testimony, the deal was rejected. shocking legal experts and people in the courtroom. >> i would say more than 99 frsz of the time the judge receives pleas. i don't know what happened. >> master tenant of the warehouse. >> he hasn't been remorseful at all. >> it seems top the case that one of these defendants just did not show ad

i need you to keep your eye on the friday cpi more "mad money" ahead, so stick with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money. follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney.cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com. ♪ before you can achieve a higher standard of craftsmanship, you need a higher standard of craftsman. see for yourself at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. i never thought i'd say this but i found bladder leak underwear that's actually pretty. always discreet boutique. hidden inside is a super absorbent core that quickly turns liquid to gel. so i feel protected and pretty. always discreet boutique. the hottest country stars, perform their newest hits. carrie underwood, blake sheldon, keith urban, chris stapleton, jason aldean, luke bryan and one of a kind rocking duets thomas rhett and kelsea ballerini host... let's get this started! cma fest wednesday august 8th 8/7 central on abc. xfinity gives you more of the cma fest

season ticket between london and brighton costing £3,968 would go up by £127 under rpi, and £99 and cpiof the rest of our society, most of the rest of the public sector — the way pay deals are calculated elsewhere. i'm simply saying the rail industry should behave the same as everyone else. i've started the ball rolling at my end by changing some of the things i've got control over, working with the rail regulator. we now need the industry and the unions to move their practices to a different level, as well. many passengers don't want to see price rises at all. the lower the better, but i think they are already extortionate. every year, year by year, they put it up. it's making life difficult for normal people like us. it should not go up — not again, anyway. the transport secretary doesn'tjust want to use this lower level of inflation to determine train ticket prices. he wants it to be used to negotiate wages for rail workers. the unions who represent the rail workers don't. we've got privateers making hundreds of millions of pounds a year and extracting it totally from the system and

out of china we have cpi later on. -- focus onrk is on what is happening, we are waiting on a decisiontoxx in manila set for a second day of gains. we are seeing a rally in philippine bonds. we could have a third rate hike. potential economic growth.

peter i'm sure has a different view >> higher inflation -- we may print a 3% cpi wages are only growing 3%. so real wage growth is zero. higher inflation is a growth inhibitor. it crimps the standard of living of consumers i want to see lower inflation. the pressures are building in many different ways, is that could get reflected today or next month whether it's trucking costs leading users of trucks to start passing it on, it's labor costs rising, but crimps profit margins. i don't want to see higher inflation, especially with interest rates so low. >> thank you thank you for coming in on this -- >> free-wheeling friday. >> free-wheeling friday. >> that may be the last dog day, too. one of the last dog days you know santoli's story today >> what's the story? >> how the dogs of the dow perform during the dog daysof august i think i may have come up with that is it interesting? >> we'll see when he reports it. >> we will >> thank you, guys >> what is boockvar? is that dutch? >> russian >> he might be a spy >> really? >> can you speak to this story >> putin texted me before and wished me

it sounds boring but the cpi is one of the key measures of inflation in the us economy.as its preferred method for judging when and when not to raise interest rates, it gives us a chance to look at how inflation is affecting the prices of everyday goods american consumers are purchasing. it is crucial in calculating the real wages that american workers are bringing home with each paycheque. what is the expectation? wall street is looking for a 3% annualised rating up from 2.996 in for a 3% annualised rating up from 2.9% injune. joining us is richard dunbar, investment director at aberdeen standard investments. let's talk about house of fraser. sad news that the department store is going into administration. it has had no choice, as it? disappointing but probably not a surprise. too much debt, not enough sales. a business model that looks more suitable to a time now passed and a model under reconstruction anyway. they were going to close havant the stores. —— half of the stores. some stores. —— half of the stores. some stores will be viable. but not perhaps as many as the

the transport secretary, chris grayling, has suggested linking them to the lower rate of inflation — cpin its members. our transport correspondent, tom burridge, has been getting reaction from those most affected — the passengers. people have accepted that they don't have a choice, and you feel exploited, to some extent. passengers are really frustrated. you can see today, i'm standing right next to the door. i could just about get into the train. commuters crammed into a rickety old carriage early this morning. i payjust over £1,000 a year. john has two kids and commutes from appley bridge, outside wigan, into manchester. it's just absolutely horrendous. sometimes one train turns up, sometimes they don't. now his season ticket could cost an extra £32 next year, in line with inflation. i don't know how they can justify that when they can't even get it to run on time at the best of times, so it's an absolute disgrace. remember, this is august, when things are supposed to be quiet, but after half an hour of ourjourney, it was standing room only. and remember, these passengers have suffered

cpi and they expire 10:00 a.m. new york, and that based around 115 might give way.ould see that synthetic support turning to synthetic resistance? ofuess if it's the opposite expired, then not so. agree,'m inclined to ,t's done ok against the dollar and we could see ourselves in a -- aange, arrange lower range lower. rishaad: good effort there, might. what do you have for us as well? i'm looking at indian equities. the chart shows there is no need the equities have seen. we've seen record highs made by the benchmark index almost every day, but if you look closely, the lines for the large direct line shows the earnings growth as well as the gains in indian equities this year are almost at the same level at about 11% or 12%. it's equivalent to an 11% gain in earnings revision. shows thered line evaluation has largely not changed. the first time earnings are stocks andin for valuations. i totally get it when they say the elephant is starting to run. rishaad: good stuff from both of you, but i'm going to go with mike here, because it seems to be more, as opposed, more p

cpi is a 2.9. expect that inflation will begin to pick up. argument to that that now unlike the 60's and 70's, we have anchored inflation expectations. that changes the game because as tog as people will react movements and inflation and you don't have much of a problem. >> and that is the correct argument. if you ask what people's expectations are for five years from now they say to an are sent. allows thenow inflation rate as they measure up to go up by a half percent, i moves welld the cpi above 3%, i think people may say it is not as anchored as we thought. >> do you think that the path the market is expecting, gradual movements in 2019 to 3%, will they have to change the market expectation? i don't know how the market expectation about interest rates will change. currented sticks to its quarter of a point every other meeting. >> what about inflation? if it does pick up, do they stop sooner? know, the opposite. if the inflation rate picks up, you would think the fed would want to keep raising short-term rates. >> what is your forecast for

the government releases new cpi figures at a: 30.ctation the fed will raise rates one or two more times this year. tictoc on twitter. our been more than 2700 journalists in more than a hundred 20 countries. -- more than 120 countries. deteriorate, dow futures -122. curve flattening dramatically. a lower 10 year yield. next screen, please. vix showing not a big figure movement. getting out to that one big figure. strength, we are seeing the flight to his uric -- 20, switzerland -- to zurich in switzerland. francine: overall, european stocks falling the most in a asia.following worry that turkey's problems will spill into the eurozone. dollar advancing along treasuries. it's a risk off move. a diplomatic spat with the u.s. and turkish investors look at the president to calm the nerves when he speaks later on, just under an hour from now are -- now. it's difficult to know what he can say with words and not actions. some are exposed to turkish acids through local banks. you can see they are down between 3.5% and 4%. when putting the show

turning to inflation, cpi inflation has fallen back towards the mpc‘s inflation has fallen back towardstion as well as higher energy prices. the committee's latest inflation projection is higher than in may, reflecting the effect of recent rises in energy prices and the 2.5% recent depreciation of sterling. this could inject some volatility for inflation in the near term. the bigger picture remains one of external cost pressures easing with the peaking pack on inflation from the referendum effect on falling sterling behind us and domestic pressures continuing to build as slack is absorbed. the labour market is strong. unemployment is at a 42 year low and is projected to fall a little further below the mpc‘s estimate. the employment rate and the number of vacancies are at record highs and job to job flows are back around precrisis levels. pay growth has picked up in recent yea rs pay growth has picked up in recent years as the labour market has tightened and companies have found it harder to recruit and retain staff. across the economy as a whole, growth in average which is, excluding bo

out of china we have cpi later on. -- focus onrk is on what is happening, we are waiting on a decision. you have stoxx in manila set for a second day of gains. we are seeing a rally in philippine bonds. we could have a third rate hike. potential economic growth. asian stocks are mixed but mostly higher with chinese stocks leading gains. after losing over 1% on wednesday. we have the offshore yuan losing ground. the onshore rate is up 0.1%. move that thean's chinese inflation on its upward course coming in at 2.1%. that could push chinese bond yields higher. i want to highlight new zealand. kiwi shares rising the most in a month after that decision. the kiwi dollar is flipping as the central bank pushes out its rate hike outlook. as we wait on u.s.-japan trade talks, the nikkei faltering. you have electronics makers the biggest drag in tokyo. yamaha motors falling on reports of improper fuel and emissions test. let's check on commodities. losses as china puts tariffs on u.s. energy products. aluminum surging in shanghai. this as a mystery chinese trade is feeling to gain -- fueling up a