. >> i've got craig callahan i've got mike feroli saying business is expected to maybe rebound. why is the fed talking about the economy as if it's falling off a cliff right now? >> are you talking to me [ laughter ] >> i mean, i think that they have -- maybe it's a bit like what do you want to call it, an overexecuted pirouette where they pivot it but went a little bit too far. >> it's like when ice skating they overrotate it on the triple axel >> and you know what happens when you do that sometimes you fall right down on your bumpadump i kind of got that a lot of uncertainty. but then they went a little bit an extra rotation there back to the cut without waiting. about a month or so ago, i put up a thing called the road to the cut. and one of the big stops on the road to the cut was first of all the job's number and then the gdp number and then it comes in higher than expected >> and we were on that road before they even got those numbers. >> they have enough in there to rationalize this they have the capital slowdown they have some of the deterioration in some of the like ger

also joining us is michelle meyers craig callahan is president of icon advisers and briyan reynolds, guys, it's great to have you all here. you guys in the wake of this, correct me if i'm wrong, now have moved up that rate cut, forecasts say, yeah, it's going to happen at month end, right? >> that's right. we were kind of on the fence looking at the data assuming that strong jobs report. ism above 50 would allow the fed to have a little more time to assess conditions before making a move but powell very much adjusted the otherwise today. he made it very clear as steve said that this is a fed that is looking to act they're very worried about uncertainties. and they're looking at a broad range of data, mostly global data, in terms of informing this view so to me i think a 25 biscuit. they want to be aggressive they want to be early, and they want to ensure that this is a recovery that can continue, and they're not waiting to see evidence of slowing in the data. >> craig callahan, i know that you think that they've tightened too much last year, but i want to talk about the why they're d