let's bring in our strategist mark cranfield. i want to start with that rally in hong kong. >> there are a couple of things that make it all the more impressive. china was out today so there are no inflows from the mainland. it would normally be a good factor for them. it's impressive because if you look at the performance for the last couple weeks, it's been of -- against the trend in the last couple weeks. hong kong markets have done pretty well in the face of it. that is a gain. clearly there's optimism about what's coming up in terms of tech earnings. we have the big ones, tencent, alibaba, show me -- show me. they report within two days of each other. given what we've seen from the u.s. tech companies and around the world, that will also be a positive for hong kong as well. if they see improvements, it will translate that as being positive for their own companies as well. certainly there's optimism that one first quarter results come through for the big hong kong tech companies, that will be another booster. it may well be t

tom: let's bring in mark cranfield for the details at a reaction to the fed speak at a reaction to these auctions. how was the fed speak likely to be tied to the 30 year auction today, the 10 year yesterday, not particularly well received. >> traders would have liked to have more of a dovish outlook from fed speakers overnight. the 30 year on the back of a not particularly good 10 year. you can see yields are backing up in asia today not just because of the fed speakers talking about higher for longer, which is not helping bond traders much. the japanese market is under pressure, and that is significant because if jgb yields are heading higher that will have a global impact, and we are seeing that throughout australia and new zealand. treasuries unusually soft in asia on the day of an auction, yields are up a couple of basis points in the treasury curve even before london starts to come into start trading, so people are nervous about it. they are not going to give you any carrots in terms of really rate cuts, so that does not help people going into the auction later today when they are s

mark cranfield joins me now with the latest. what was the cross asset message from what we got through in terms of the jobs data come the softer print on friday? >> it was pretty much a goldilocks event as far as risk assets are concerned. treasuries will be relieved that the number wasn't so high that it questions the idea that there could be another rate hike this year. it has completely taken that off the table. jerome powell already said during the fomc that he was not expecting higher rates, and that looks like the case is definitively now, after the u.s. jobs number, so treasury bonds heavy with it. equities are pleased because the u.s. economy is coming along nicely, jobs are being created but not too many, so it is not overheating. in terms of the u.s. dollar, because treasury yields came down slightly, that helps the u.s. dollar. all in all, it was a near perfect scenario. you see a continuation of the good mood going on in asia today. in terms of thinking this sets the stage for early rate cuts in america, people need

. >> let's bring in mark cranfield.ow significant do expect this report to be, when it comes to the question of the fed forecast? mark: yeah, it is significant because the rate cuts in the dot plots are hanging by a thread and it may be too late, they will have to be changed. if there is any chance of preserving rate cuts it would mean a soft report. if we don't get that, traders will give up on the idea. one or two cuts is the most, likely to get confirmation. maybe back to one rate cut. do not forget, the past two inflation reports, both exceeded expectations. it has driven yields higher and the dollar higher. big impact and either market has are covered so yields may come to have but they are higher than they were. the dollar is near the high so you can see how significant it is. equity markets would like it close to expectations. focusing on ai and tech and earnings, pretty decent. so bonds and currencies we are looking at, things like dollar-yen, the last cpi report was the final thing to trigger it toward 160, the

let's bring in mark cranfield. why the focus on this?ark: investors care because the federal reserve cares. they were wrongfooted earlier in the year with cpi that came in hot and disrupted foreign exchange. only a few months ago they are taking treasury yields below 4%, that followed adele this outlook that chair powell gave and we had a complete change. march and april data which came out triggered changes in the bond market, the dollar got stronger. a lot of read through and volatility around specific days have been high. mostly because numbers have been hot. we expect something in line but nobody is confident that they can go into the report with their eyes closed. people need to be on the alert because the readthrough is quick into what the federal reserve have to say with several speakers. we will get quick feedback of what they think about the numbers. tom: investors need to be on alert. which class is likely to be most sensitive? mark: it will be the foreign exchange market and if you think about the report in april, that was the

mark cranfield with the analysis from jay powell, thank you indeed.rom the macro to the corporate facing stories and apples results after the market closed indeed. revenue expected to contract indeed amid a regulatory pressure and ai strategy concern. let's cross over to peter ahlstrom. what can we expect from the numbers? how much will be a china story? peter: all eyes are on apple, trying to figure out how the company navigates these -- these resistant forces ahead of it at this point. it's an unusual place, they've had an amazing run and now they are struggling. revenue declined this quarter. expectations are revenue will be down 5% because of the smart phone market and china has been challenging. iphones are a big growth driver for many years. in china they are facing headwind because of the resurgence of wall way and shall me. we've seen them lose ground in china to those companies, especially wall way. the u.s. blacklisting cause some problems, now there is nationalistic demand for phones in particular. one of the things for apple is they are st

tom: ok, let's bring in mark cranfield in singapore. we heard from loretta messner. expectations on the number of cuts. dot plots signaled three, what are traders looking for? mark: traders are looking for one and two rate cuts by the end of the year. probably in november. the fed meeting coming up is the one, giannis the next time and it will give us a new outlook. there is no way they can go to three. we've reached the end of the year and they were projecting this in january or march. data has not worked out in their favor. they had to dial back and that is why your hearing a longer -- higher for longer mantra. people are doing cuts. did due to or one? certainly an amount of relief if they come through with two dot plots to show that they are squeezing in a couple before the end of the year. what would not be so promising as if they go for one. tom: two to one is the question, two or one. we will not get three in your estimation. which assets are most sensitive to a move in terms of expectations? mark: currencies and bonds are at the forefront of the reaction. if t

let's bring in mark cranfield.t to start on that story we were reporting on earlier about those ultra long bond sales in china. what is that money went to be used for specifically, and is the demand there to soak this up? mark: the first part, everyone would like to know where the money is going. i don't think that is clear just yet. in terms of demand, certainly a very important question for investors, especially for the 50 year sector. that is the part of the curve that gets tested. very few governments around the world ever sell bonds as long as 50 years. it is unknown what kind of demand would expect. if you look at the way the chinese curve is set up, we would extrapolate and expect that it would be below 3%, which does not sound very exciting for a very long duration bound. of course, if people expect that there will be triple cuts in the future from china, and other forms of easing under stable currency. then it might not look so bad. you probably will have domestic investors in the insurance sector who need

mark cranfield, we thank you. we have rather a busy day on the docket and we start with data in the u.k.. 7:00 london time, first quarter gdp numbers. the numbers for march completing the set for the first quarter. likely to confirm the economy is in the pastor recovery. so adding to that changing mood music here in the u.k.. now that the cuts seem to be coming soon. at the top of the hour, we get iag earnings across -- iag earnings. geopolitics could be a risk here. on the plus size -- side, the balance sheet on the mend. you might see a resumption of the dividend. the other thing to watch today is the university of michigan survey at 3:00 london time. likely to show consumer sentiment deteriorating in early may as americans worried about their financial situation in that cooling labor market that we've been discussing. seen in the jobless claims data. you can get those stories and all that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of the daybreak newsletter. today, biden posed to impose tariffs o

let's bring in mark cranfield.ddy rosie one might say. >> you've got a situation where the fed is moving toward a rate cut but you don't need to worry about rates going up. you got the central bank with a rate cut in june and maybe july so that something for markets to look forward to. think of england will be close to the time of central bank lowering interest rates. got a dovish hold, people expecting the economy rates to come down and a situation where central banks are fueling optimism in markets. dollar is stable. bank of japan is moving slowly so i macro point of view things are looking good. china is getting serious about the property sector. not too much going wrong. auslander: we talk about taiwan and a heightening of tensions, it seems like investors are under pricing risk. mark: taking market positioning does not play up so people take outright positions and the not rewarded. we seen it to the days of north korea, we hardly ever see that reaction these days. investors have been burnt. if something seriou

mark cranfield with details around inflation and the read across to the markets. to geopolitics, putin arrived in beijing for talks with president xi. they rolled out the red carpet. russian forces pressing ahead with a new offensive in ukraine. china's leader welcomed his russian counterpart as they begin a two day state visit. let's bring in rebecca for the implications of this. what do we know about the visit so far? how important is this for putin? >> a warm welcome for president putin into the great wall of the people for those talks with xi jinping. directly with xi and also small groups as well according to state media. xi has come up with a full throated support for putin, reaffirming and saying that china is ready to work with russia is a good neighbor friend and partner and again, stressing they can consolidate their friendship for generations to come. very much affirming the no limits nature of the friendship that announcement comes weeks before putin invaded russia. there is a somewhat unspoken tension. there are certain strains going on behind-the-sce

let's bring in mark cranfield. global bonds having a good month. you are looking at the 10-year. there is more money moving in, very modest today, four point 41. a number of head speakers this week. how comfortable are you with the repricing in the bond market and what are the risks ahead? >> already the biggest risk is that investors get too far ahead of themselves. we have seen it a few times the past couple of years when people think the inflationary path is declining fast enough to have several interest-rate cuts, whether it is from the fed or the ecb, or in general across the g10 space. it looks as though we are getting into the same realms again where several rate cuts are being priced in. maybe a little too much. yields possibly discounting more then will really come on the table from central banks. the first real test will be in under two weeks. the european central bank fully expected to deliver their first interest-rate cut in this cycle. but there are considerable doubts about how many more, and when the next rate cuts will be coming after that, we are already hearing