mark cranfield, we thank you for that lookahead. let's look at what's coming up today on the docket. 8:30 a.m. london time, a decision from the reichs bank. it's expected to resume its easing cycle and cut rates. do keep an eye on the kroner. we will bring you an update later. 10 a.m. london time, euro area cpi, feeding into that ecb decision we were discussing with mark cranfield. 12 p.m. london time, the turn of turkey, expected to hold the rate at 50% for the fifth straight meeting. and elsewhere we will hear from the fed's rafael bostic and michael barr ahead of jerome powell's jackson hole speech friday. coming up, antony blinken says israel has accepted a cease-fire proposal. we will bring you more from the u.s. secretary of state's visit to israel next. volodymyr zelenskyy urges ukraine's allies to lift restrictions on the use of weapons to strike inside russia. the latest on the geopolitical situation next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back. antony blinken says benjamin netanyahu has accepted a cease-fire deal and it

thank you so much, mark cranfield. in u.s. politics kamala harris has pledged to most of the middle class and negotiate a possible cease-fire in the middle east and her first interview since capturing the democratic presidential nomination. v.p. harris: my agenda includes what we need to do to bring down the price of groceries, for instance, price gouging. what we need to do to extent the child tax credit, take care of children in their most formative years. at what we need to do to bring down the cost of housing. i made it clear that i would not ban fracking. there should be consequences. we have laws that should be followed and enforced that address and deal with people who cross our border illegally. i think it would be to the benefit of the american public would have a member of my cabinet coup was a republican. we have to get a deal done. this word must end. we must get a deal that means getting the hostages out. let's get the cease fire done. joumanna: let's get more on this with bill faries. this was harris' first inter

that will feed into the euro picture we were discussing with mark cranfield. at 7:00 p.m. london time, but had minutes for july, do they change rate cut bets before we hear from powell on friday? you can get a round up in today's edition of debris. terminal subscribers can find it by going to dayb . coming up, u.s. secretary of state antony blinken leaves the middle east empty-handed. no ceasefire deal for gaza yet. we will get into the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: it is 6:15 a.m. in london. to the middle east where u.s. secretary of state antony blinken left without securing a ceasefire between israel and hamas, after spending tuesday meeting with egyptian and qatari officials, he emphasized the urgency of reaching agreement. >> our message is simple. it's clear and it's a urgent. we need to get a ceasefire and hostage agreement over the finish line. time is of the essence. lizzy: hamas pushed back against u.s. claims that it is telling talks, saying it is keen to reach an agreement. let's get more from galit in tel aviv. if not israel or hamas, what is s

paul: i want to bring in mark cranfield to explain what just happened over the past 48 hours. is this a dead cap bounce or is this recovery putting us back to where we were? >> only as far as japan's concerns it will be pretty heavy going for the japanese equities. the intense volatility that you seen over the past week does mean that from a point of view of risk management, the applied volatility in portfolios has now jumped really off the scales. it's up to numbers we haven't seen in years. that will mean a response that many portfolio managers will have to take smaller positions to accommodate the changes in their value or risk. that's not what that means in a practical sense is that they may be forced to reduce positions, even if they don't really want to. they beat -- they may believe japanese equities are representing great value and there's good upside to come. but there risk managers might be telling them you can't hold those positions because there's not enough space within your limit. that kind of thing doesn't only apply to japanese equities but they are probably on

let's get more from mark cranfield. how much of the selloff in the session today is about the jobs report and the catch up in terms of sentiment? mark: it has quite a bit to do with it. it is not the only factor. what traders are really worried about is we are getting something like a kind of policy mismatch of signals like we saw in 2022. then the fed allowed inflation to go up quickly before they started to ring it in by hiking interest rates. when they did so, they needed to do it a few times by 75 basis points. now they seem to have delayed lowering interest rates when the economy needs it. it is no wonder that traders are already pricing 50 basis points for september and they may go further. we still have two inflation reports to come before the fed meets again and one more jobs report. if that data continues to question the state of the american economy, the traders will keep driving for lower rates. the equity markets are joining in and it was bad last week already. that is fueling the move into bonds which is th

mark cranfield, trace -- traders now pricing in more than 100 basis points of cuts by the fed this yearey going to be disappointed again? >> it's like a game of chicken. who will blink first, the fed or the traders? the traders seem confident they have got it right. they have seen the data, a couple softish employment reports, and jerome powell himself say the employment situation is deteriorating, and so that is important. then you get the equity market going into a tailspin as well, which is something that often feeds into a softer economic policy, and the fed meeting to respond. you put those things together and it's no wonder that traders are convinced not only in september is a going to be 50 basis points but there will be more cuts to follow quite quickly after that, leading to at least 100 basis points worth of cuts. we have fed speakers coming, some in the next week or so, and they may push back. you are overdoing it, there's no need for us to panic. but there's an inflation report next week. it's a big one. the cpi report, if it comes in on the downside, if you get a soft numbe

let's bring in our mliv strategist mark cranfield. lot of this is at stake following the manufacturing number yesterday. >> there is a lot at stake for fed speakers as well not that the window has closed. they will be trying not to fuel any more in financial markets. we have had a turbulent couple of days since the fomc met this week, and you would have thought with a relatively dovish outlook the traders would be happy, but the way equity markets are going and this tremendous move in the treasury market. the 10 year is down to what 3% handle, there was resistance the markets are suggesting not that the fed is behind the curve but they need to get on with it and do a bigger rate cut. the job of the fed speakers will be ticket events traders that the idea of a soft landing is still in place, that they can afford to take their time. they probably will lower rates in september provided the data continues to move in the right direction, but they will want to abide the idea that they need to do a 50 basis rate cut in september. i will prob

mark cranfield, thank you. the nasdaq ending the day in the red with tech mega caps sinking ahead of those nvidia results. more on what to expect from reporter annabelle droulers. i was just reading a statistic from one of our colleagues saying typically, on the last two reporting days, over 200 billion dollars were added in market cap to nvidia, substantial numbers. what are we expecting from these upcoming earnings? annabelle: as mark was just saying, nvidia results are a macro effect these days, exceptionally important to traders and investors. the expectation is they will be fairly solid. revenue adjusted earnings, we are expecting them to around double. the bloomberg intelligence team is expecting a beat on that and a brighter outlook for the third quarter. these are all positive factors. the ai story could remain intact. what else we want to know is the outlook for the blackwell chip lineup, the next generation ai chip thing. we are seeing delays to the rollouts of these that has already affected the shar

we are joined by markets live report or mark cranfield. mark, your top take from what we heard. the statement was adjusted at the margins but we got a dovish line from jay powell in the press conference appears to be the take. >> from a traders point of view, the most interesting thing is if you compare it to the first quarter, markets were pricing something like three to four interest rate cuts. here we are, third quarter of the year and we are still pricing three interest-rate cuts. this time jerome powell is not pushing back. he is more or less giving a green light. he is not 100% saying it is a done deal but the door is wide open. unless the data is very disappointing the next couple of weeks, a first cut of this series will happen in september. unless the two cpi reports in between are very bad, it's a done deal pretty much, and probably for some more this year, maybe even the three the market is looking for. no pushback and that's what the traders heard. tom: the door wide open for that september cut from the fed, the first of the cycle. the ecb are looking at another cut

mliv strategist mark cranfield.l: coming up, cybersecurity firm and cyberattacks on the rise worldwide, especially in india. the president exclusively next. this is bloomberg. ♪ why do couples choose a sleep number smart bed? can it keep me warm when i'm cold? wait, no, i'm always hot. sleep number does that. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed and free delivery when you add any base. paul: welcome back to bloomberg markets: asia. you are watching the india focus on a look at india markets just ahead of the open. it looks like it will be a mix to the day. 4.5 minutes away from the open today. the cybersecurity markets in india is rapidly evolving driven by the increasing sophistication of threats. the latest research from software technology says india recorded the second highest number of weekly attacks in the asia-pacific last quarter. for more on this, let's get to checkpoint president. thank you so much for joining us. can you give us a bit of a sense for c

let's bring in our mliv strategist mark cranfield. we wanted to give -- get your thoughts when we look at powell and how keep could put the rate cut on the cards, what about the path forward the next couple of meetings? what is he likely to outline? >> that's the needle he needs to thread. he needs to convince traders to give him the rate cut expected in september and somehow that there won't be a series of inevitable cuts. he won't want to box the federal reserve into a situation where they have to deliver multiple rate cuts even though that's the market is expecting through the middle of next year. probably getting ahead of themselves. so maui has to gently roll that back so he doesn't cause a huge disruption in financial markets, yet gets away with telling the markets you can have part of what you want but you can't have everything yet. he can choose the right words, he can get away with it provided there won't be as much destruction and financial markets and we have a reasonable week next year. -- next week. a tricky job. when you

it let's get more analysis from mark cranfield. avril was describing the risk off session. is that valid? mark: when european investors get to work today if they might be surprised that asia is not doing worse, because with nvidia losing 7% in aftermarket trading, you would've have expected a bigger reaction. we did initially notice futures when they first opened looked bleak, but they have recovered gradually. some of that could be a defect. we come in the last two trading days of the month, and it is a long weekend in the united states. there is less time for people in the states to cover their positions if they need to, so that is probably giving it a boost as well. overall the impact has been less than you may expect. that may be delayed until next week, because traditionally over the long labor day weekend is a time when people reassess their outlook for the final few months of the year, and if you think people are concerned that that is find the curve, we have a massive jobs report next week, people could come into next week looking defensive, and that will take the e

. >> h-mart cranfield, the emblem -- the mliv strategist with their preview of what traders will be watching. and one is the geopolitical situation in the middle east. israel and hamas blaming each other for impeding a cease-fire as antony blinken arrived in tel aviv to press for that agreement. he is on his ninth visit to the region since the war broke out last october. he will meet with israel officials before traveling to egypt. dan, what are the sticking points in the cease-fire talks? we keep waiting for a deal. dan: to judge from a hamas statement issued last night, flat bang in the middle of what was meant to be a pivotal meeting at the end of last week and doha as well as in cairo. it would appear from the hamas statement that we are at square one. most immediate sticking points cited by both sides are over the fates of two strategic corridors in the gaza strip. israel wants to keep its troops there to prevent arms smuggling tahoe mosque and to prevent hamas from moving to the northern gaza strip while hamas once a total withdrawal of israeli troops. this points to a deeper dispute.

mark cranfield joins me now for more.e had at least three banks managing to get their hands on these payroll notes yesterday. what is the reaction and markets, it seemed a bit confused, caused by the delay, or because traders decided they just learned that worried about the revision, even if it's the biggest in 15 years? mark: i suspect that they were not too shocked by the time they finally saw them. something like a million jobs will be reduced in total and we were expecting something close to 900,000. the other point, the gnashing of teeth, it's always a big discussion point. you will be hearing a lot more about that, that's for sure. in terms of the data itself, they were pretty confident going into it that the federal reserve is going to give them a green light pretty much for september, that's how the picture looks, if you take in commendation those numbers plus the fomc minutes, it pretty much all together till she there's nothing really to stop the fed going ahead in september. we do have more data to come, we hav

joumanna: let's discuss this more with bloomberg's mliv's mark cranfield.e have been tracking the market reactions. a positive reaction to stocks on friday but the dollar slipped 1% in friday's drapery dollar-yen leading the way. how far may it decline this time around? >> traders are looking back at that. so if previous declines of dollar-yen, the biggest worry in recent history is the one at the end of 2022, and that decline was about 16%, between the high and the low for dollar-yen. the low so far even at the extreme point couple of weeks ago is only 12%, so there could be quite a way to go. if you compare the conditions, they are more favorable for the yen now than they were two years ago, what has changed is the fact that the bank of japan is starting to raise interest rates, and the fed is closer to lowering. that's a big change from what we saw in the previous cycle. the fact that mr. ueda last week reinforced his message that there is more work to do is helping the yen. jerome powell clearly's ignoring -- clearly signaling that the federal reserve w

let's bring in our mliv strategist mark cranfield. we heard from a way to last friday.are seeing a play out continue today. what is my sense of their for the declines we might expect on japanese stocks given where yields are? mark: the yen is not helping, but they are looking at the yield curve as well, because the flattening effect in the yield curve is being driven by the short-term rising faster than the long and. it would be the two year yield pickup that her japanese equities because that was the predictor for the bank of japan in terms of interest rates rising. governor ueda sees a path ahead toward more tightening, so that yield curve will extend further, and that will be driven by short-term yields growing up more quickly, which is the one that will hurt japanese equities. there are other factors that may get around it. it dividend yields are good in japan, but it certainly is a headwind, and when you combine it with the strength of the yen as well, that are two factors that may be too much. if global equities do well japan might be able to diminish and reduce i

let's bring in mark cranfield, our strategist from the mliv team. yields lower in the session across the treasury curve. this was described by many that we quoted as weak in terms of sale that these 10 year treasuries in the u.s.. does that suggest that the bond rally towards the back end of the curve is done? mark: quite possibly. this week, we've seen a low print of 3.66 on the 10 year treasury yield. unless investors really believe that a hard landing is coming for the united states and coming very quickly, it would be hard to quibble -- go below that level. especially when the federal reserve is trying to push back a bit. they will -- they don't want people pricing in unless they need to do that. they would prefer a move by 25 basis points. there's a lot of data to come out even before that meeting. you would expect them to try to be a little bit cautious. certainly the treasure market has gotten ahead of itself. trying to sell 10 year bonds more than 150 basis points low the federal funds rate is a bit of a stretch. although some people are rig

let's get more from mark cranfield. this cpi seems to lock in that september cut. you were very early and terms of flagging a potential jumbo cut the fed in september. we are getting fomc members turning dovish. at raphael bostic saying he is open to the cut. goolsby saying his focus is on the labor market. what do you make of this? mark: yesterday we were talking about traders thinking this was a shakespearean play, but today it is a beatles song, the long and winding road of rate cuts. it is probably 200 basis points worth of rate cuts priced into next year. traders are convinced once of the fed starts at there will be no stopping, rates are coming down and down. what the fed people are doing here is they are making sure there will be no margin for error. they are telling the traders you are right, so do not panic. that is partly why you have had a relatively small response so far to the cpi data, considering how important it is, but there were more pieces of data to come before the fed meat. -- mmeet. we are getting toward september. as you mentioned there is st

mark cranfield with a preview in terms of how the markets are likely to adjust around that inflation data out of the u.s., from our mliv team. vice president, harris has opened up a narrow lead on former president donald trump in three battleground states, according to the latest new york times-cnn poll. let's bring in our news director. the ticket has translated into momentum in the democratic base. the enthusiasm is there, the rallies are attracting thousands of people, 15,000 on the latest count. the question had been to what extent that was translated into an improvement in poll numbers, now we have evidence to suggest the needle has moved for them. >> it is showing she is continuing to have some momentum from the initial days, and that is going to be crucial for her. what we are seeing is she does seem to be making swings into the -- inroads in these swing states. it is not far outside the margin of error, but it does show she is in fronts, and that is important. tim walz will be important because he can bring in those voters as well. the question is, in these swing states in pa