ask for more on retail, i am joined by the chief economist at the credit union national association. welcome back to bottom line and good to see you again. been getting so many mixed messages this year about the state of the u.s. consumer. what did today's retail numbers tell us? >> the good news is that they are twice what expectations were for november. aboutk given what we know consumers, it is a good signal that we will start out not only with a decent holiday season, but strong consumer spending going into 2014. >> a few weeks ago, the credit union national association released their 14th annual holiday spending survey. the forecast is for a in overall holiday spending increased by consumers of 3.5%-four percent over a year ago. have you seen anything since the survey was released that would alter that forecast? >> i have not. this morning's retail numbers suggest that we may be on the high end of that. the survey we did, these are the strongest results we have had since 2000 x. -- 2006. i have not seen anything since then. there has been a change in the mix of spending, a littl