crisis group he joins me now from brussels welcome to deja vu africa so you'll organization has come out on record saying that the job hardest insurgency in mali and the government's military operations against it are exacerbating that into communal violence can you explain that. well it's it's rather simple each side being the g i d r. my and the 3 keys are trying to use proxies the jedi basically are trained to get a fruit in central money and started 4 years ago to. recruit among the sunni communities among which they have been you know more successful among other communities for a different kind of reason and one of them being that one of the kids yet the leaders of the foreign central money is him self freddy on their side i think that their money on the r.b.i. has difficulties fighting the jedi war extremely good at fighting in the rule countryside so basically they're also looking to call allies the good proxy that's going to help both provide information on our war you know fight against the jedi fight fighters so basically they're using the community or trying to use some of

crisis group on the security situation in mali we appreciate your insights thank you thank you now be upsurge in violence in mali has spilled over into neighboring book enough fossil only last week dozens of gunmen killed nearly 20 people in attacks in the north of the country and hundreds have been killed in recent weeks the dramatic spike in attacks since late last year forced displacement over on 150000 people in the country here too the government has failed to effectively tackle the violence also despite international military. the africa cup of nations kicks off this week with egypt hosting the biggest soccer event on the continent attention is said to be focused on the pitch as the best $24.00 teams fight it out before the final is decided on july 19th but in the background there is a different struggle going on the struggle to get by as egypt slides further into economic stagnation and the struggle of opposition voices to be heard in the repressive climate of the regime of president. el-sisi mohamed salah egypt's star football player grew up in this building before taking his

these developments mean for the country we've invited william davidson senior ethiopia analyst at crisis group to give us some context when was the ethiopia correspondent for 7 years and he's joining us now from brussels welcome to d.w. africa william what you say if the opiah isn't a political crisis. yes the sets and the and the elements of crisis about this and it's also moments of great political opportunity and that shouldn't be forgotten but it's clear from recent events the shocking events on saturday the to assess the nations and that there is an element of crisis about this and it's also been clear from several other incidents throughout the past year or so which has included bouts of communal violence increased tensions between governments and a huge number of displaced people from conflict up to 3000000 so this is definitely a this destiny of fiscal crisis here and driven i would say by serious divisions within the ruling coalition that has dominated ethiopian politics for so long. and which is just which is now in trouble right and and what does this mean william for prime minister

joining me now is hans to central africa senior analyst at international crisis group as the marie many thanks for your time now 1st of all tell us how critical is this is in central african republic. this is. probably the easy. ball. on the security police because in the whole the country which is going to elections in 2020 and many people don't know how. it's going to be critical because one of the key question these ways concha going to find money all of them are elections in the country which is false and. so the 1st thing this is going to have a security point is that some groups have been as you know me running 202019 so on that i'm still seem to be here is. the question nice what how is the argument going to be implemented concretely what progress have been made so far and we. are going to have a head i mean it's interesting you mention this i mean you talking about these questions because it's questions that are difficult to on psyche any and we saw in the report the president has just launched a public consultations to establish a commission a commission has been talked about 1

then we could be moving into quite dangerous territory ok william davidson senior analyst for crisis group thank you thank you. it's to mauritania now the west african country has a new president following elections on saturday the electoral commission said mohammed old goes away any one with an absolute majority it was the 1st time mauritanians voted to elect a successor to a democratically elected president the country has suffered a series of clues since its independence from france in 1960. they're celebrating the victory of their candidate 62 year old moment because one e the general and former defense minister was also the favorite of the outgoing government he stands for continued. you shall go down she will be on their good account of them it will very happy today that the candidate mohammed shaikh mohammed goes one on one in the 1st round with 52 percent to 1010100 most of the 12. divided up on sunday evening mauritania electoral commission published the final results. khalid shaikh mohammed ahmed goswami 483312 that is 52 point one percent. 172656 that is 18.58 percent 334. cisco

ok a lot still has to be sort of hands to mount sinjar lists with international crisis group thank you very much thank you. the super falcons of nigeria hop in africa woman cup of nations champions 9 times yet they often have to beg to get paid bonuses so talk of people people women suck up to us is a distance dream for them is a women's world cup in powers it sounds for the super falcons to gain the much needed support they crave. the super falcons have undeniably been the definition of super on the pitch in africa 9 times it up but also at 9 times they are. up so good basic. simple fact has been the best books on the field. been the one that has brought glory to the contrie team as a nation as a country. sometimes. often since the last women's world cup they've been forced to hit the streets in protest . the falcons carrying placards thanking to be paid marching to the presidential phila and national assembly this issue was partially result but there's still a ways to go. we need a lot of motivation a lot of support and what that. more outcome you know in you know may cause know that

man our program director at the international crisis group. still licking its wounds from war against isis the middle east is being pulled apart by a cold war between iran and saudi arabia and with america's whole surrendering up the pressure on teheran is the region in danger of having the chill turned into a heat wave. didn't keep up the proxy wars and counted definite winner remote from the middle east and rivalry. great to have you on our program today welcome lots to talk about so let's start with this mess around iraq. after a lot supposed a lot is that were coming from the united states toward state or on do on iran we're now hearing. them americans saying by the way we're ready to negotiate without preconditions. and at this point iran's later anything this is just play words getting it's delayed i think there'll be talks. i'm not going to make predictions in this case because you know that u.s. policy seems to change from day to day. very hard to predict what will happen next but so 2 things one is u.s. policy is really unclear and. w

is about young men for the most part to whom who need a future basically you the international crisis group i think that you also support the idea of dialogue that think that the government needs to enter into some sort of dialogue but tell me if there is this reluctance to engage with some of the groups involved some of the groups who want to separate state and islamic state how on earth what on earth do they have to negotiate about. that's a very good question and we just published a report last week about calling for government to engage in dialogue with this group and the reason why we thought that dialogue and this is necessary because there are no any good options to do with and the situation is getting worse that arc of us obama. 2 days ago is good evidence of that so in the lack of good options with think that dialogue is a possible way to open up new opportunities because right now we are stuck there is we are in this situation of mutually help hurt and stalemates between the government and the jihad is now what to dialogue about we think that 1st of all it's the idea of opening th

for the very latest on sudan i'm joined by military and what they got from the international crisis group in nairobi welcome to you know what your assessment of the situation in sudan is the military's action a serious escalation. i think this is a very significant escalation fortunately has been coming for a couple of weeks what we see is that the situation in sudan was not at all resolved by the fall of omar al bashir what happened was that to get rid of the regime was replaced but the region remains firmly in place and employed unity and remained very unwilling to use to the demands of the protesters and that allowed this experience to the control of the government this is a very grievous coalition it calls for suit intervention but unfortunately we don't really see things improving and there was a military council transitional milot military council which was set up which was negotiating with the leaders of the protesters but those negotiations have failed to make any progress how do you see the way forward is some sort of mediation to what perhaps by reached the palace. i think the p

from the international crisis group years. of the situation in sudan. i think this is a very significant is alicia fortunately has been coming for a couple of weeks what we see is that this situation in sudan was not totally sold by the oil almost assured of what it was that that if you got it up there it jim was replaced but there it remains firmly in place and. these remain very unwilling to use of that money and the protests and then allow this to be answer to the control of the government this is a very grim escalation it calls full suit intervention but unfortunately we don't really see things improving day off we can you know the peace and security council and others need to step in tell the leader of family that date that a military coup is not a political way to run a. country but most importantly what is needed now is to put into closer restraint and talk firing on the protest that's what's critical and that was merida would see that with the international crisis group speaking with us earlier here's some of the other stories now that are makin

of the international crisis group mr bass is the project director on iran there and known around washington and undoubtedly in tehran for an opinion piece headlined the u.s. should strive for a stable iran instead it is suffocating it well he won't there's so much discussed peace in the washington post with a former iranian foreign minister and ambassador to the us from before the iranian revolution all right and mr vi as i'd like to welcome you to the program you noted in your op-ed that you are from the post iranian revolution era but you and ambassador to haiti are united basically in calling on the u.s. to stop threatening iran you heard our previous guest probably shouldn't iran stop its recent provocations in the gulf region the attacks on the oil tankers shooting down the drones. look one has to understand the sources of iranian conduct on why is it that the iranians are now engaged in this kind of pushback i think it's if you look at the last time that iran interrupted shipping in the persian gulf it really goes back to the height of the iran iraq war so what is it that has pushed i

by as director of the international crisis group's iran project thank you sir for coming on it's not pleasure. now a question for voters in istanbul willoughby's 2nd time lucky in their city for turkey's ruling party all this sunday in the country's biggest metropolis the mejor all election that saw an opposition candidate win for the 1st time in decades is being rerun hundreds of thousands are said to be delaying their summer holidays so they can vote there is again a distinct possibility that present richard to have everyone's a k party will lose its grip on the city. this is how the final phase of election campaigning looks like in istanbul at the ferry terminal in the credit district the major parties have set up their stalls and they are doing their best to drown each other out. the city has been in campaign mode for almost 6 months now he narrowly won the mayor's office in march a criminal it was the 1st opposition victory here in istanbul in 25 years but bin ali yet are among the ruling a.k.p. wasn't going to give up the city without a fight his party fatah complains all the i

and we're back with his children and nana director for the international crisis group mr han to men we get the seance that isis has been defeated in syria and in iraq but yet there at least a 1000 extremists are believed to have crossed the iraqi border and we saw the video of the chatter later baccarat al baghdadi and here appeared in a video we believe could be the iraqi unbar province says it too are there to celebrate the fate of their not only about the leadership. so whatever but that he is today never mind but he probably is somewhere in the desert in syria or in iraq where he likely in iraq. the that is not your only problem of course that is a problem because as long as he's the leader he can try to reorganize and to remove the license supporters and to have immediate apartments and do all the things that an organized leadership can do even if they're all on the run and hiding out in the desert but there's another problem again i was norden syria and in march we do work both in syria and in iraq and it's very clear that there are also at the local level number of isis activist

arion capital we have ibrahim yahya ibraheem he's a consulting analyst with the international crisis group in london paul mellie a consulting fellow at chatham house an international affairs think tank and in all slow the norwegian capital we have tall binyam incertain a professor of political ecology at the norwegian university of life sciences thank you to you all let me come to you 1st ibrahim in the m.e. this is a complex come conflict is that as we've just alluded to tensions between the different ethnic groups have been have been there for as long as there have been settlements why are we experiencing an upsurge in violence now in recent years. thank you very much this is a killer good question there are there have been tension between the gone thunder line is. since 1000 years ago the descent this. tension of world over time exacerbated because of. the tension over natural resources more control over natural resources but particularly in the last 5 to 6 years because of the upsurge of you had a sense urgency in the region. the doggone most of the jihadists are associated with pearl

arion capital we have ibrahim yahya ibraheem he's a consulting analyst with the international crisis group in london paul mellie a consulting fellow at chatham house an international affairs think tank and in all slow the norwegian capital we have tall binyam incertain a professor of political ecology at the norwegian university of life sciences thank you to you all let me come to you 1st ibrahim in the m.e. this is a complex come conflict is that as we've just alluded to tensions between the different ethnic groups have been have been there for as long as there have been settlements why are we experiencing an upsurge in violence now in recent years. well thank you very much this is a killer good question there are there have been tension between doggone thunder line is. since 1000 years ago the dissent this. tension evolved over time exacerbated because of. the tension over natural resources more control over natural resources but particularly in the last 5 to 6 years because of the upsurge of you had a sense urgency in the region. doggone most of the jihadists are associated with pearl f

alley vias director of the iran project at the international crisis group gentlemen welcome to you all ali let's start with you is iran's president right as the white house lost its mind. well without any doubt the latest round of sanctions are absolutely counterproductive for an administration that pretends that it's interested in negotiations to target the political leadership of iran and try to designate iran's foreign minister iran's chief diplomat it's really a signal that this administration is not interested in negotiations otherwise it would not increase the political part price of engagement would it $40.00 iranians in way that would actually render talks almost impossible not to go to see in vienna what's the purpose do you think of these sanctions is a diplomatic is it economic what effect they intended to have. well and to my humble opinion i think it has several consequences and several reasons one of the reasons which is which come to my mind is really is that i think mr trump is somehow annoyed with the message that he received from the japanese prime minister. and that'

saying cue for that update from washington let's bring in ali by the international crisis group's iran project director he's joining us via skype from washington thanks for speaking to us so you may have heard why these saying that some congressional leaders are cautioning against any steps when it comes to iran but how much those this latest incident actually play into the hands of the hawks on iran who advocates for war. look the trouble is that each cycle of escalation actually brings us closer to the brink of a military confrontation but iran and this is collision today i think was particularly dangerous because we passed a trace hold ready of iran actually shooting down a u.s. assets if you were indeed behind the recent attacks in the gulf where in the past few weeks the u.s. assets were not targeted and i think the next way station in this cycle about escalation if it is an american person is killed either u.s. special forces or even civilians i don't know you the region or beyond the region that would definitely turn into a cost especially and justification for starting a war an

and canned calling on the international community to be more active in restoring democracy to crisis group venezuela both groups voiced their support for the country's opposition leader one going back in january he proclaimed himself venezuela's interim president and since then he's led failed to terms to oust nicolas maduro from power why the situation needs to be a businesswoman when you reach the regional impact of the crisis requires the region and the international community to a more active role in supporting a prompt return to democracy in venezuela. is one of the 1st countries to throw its support behind us now announce that it's temporarily shutting down its embassy in caracas but it's not easily for trying to reports canada has been trying to overthrow the venezuelan government for at least 5 years. so canada's embassy in caracas is shutting its doors for some time because the government there is denying canadian diplomats the required accreditation and here's how the person in charge of foreign affairs in canada puts it as venezuela slides deeper into dictatorship and as venezue

. >> i am with a crisis group. i wonder in west africa with the united states pulling out 2000 troops we have stationed there as they march south , what does that signal for the future of security relations and democracy relations and what those look like in the region i think that is part of the challenge of how do we engage africa? if the second point of the strategy of counterterrorism is pulling out what message do we stay and engage with the type of arms that africa needs? and that is recall the republican army that is the army that you present to the people the army outside of the politics there's only about six or seven of them. there again is a tremendous opportunity to find security and stability and to reflect the need of the local population is part of the challenge nobody seems to understand the angle i'm not criticizing them just saying it's such a unique system to deal with the us military more than any other command so when those decisions are made which by the way is the same space as democracy beca

. >> for more on the story, we bring in the senior analyst at the international crisis group, joining us from washington. thank you for joining us here on france 24. donald trump the united -- he says the united states was cocek ked and loaded. now?this changing for run >> immobilized to u.s. forces but basically not pull the trigger. it is sending a strong message of deterrence to the iranians. i am concerned that iranians might have a different interpretation, they might think the president is so averse in entering another military confrontation in the middle east, that they have more space to push left on the maximum pressure strategy, in understanding that there is a major risk of the conflict. >> so you fear that this could get out of control and escalate further, that this is not just all bluster? >> for sure. look, the iranians have started back -- on that to push to push back on the u.s. maximum pressure policy. and the trump administration at the same time as to have no interest on battling back sanctions. so i believe the iranians will continue with what the u.s. sees as per

more than 4000000 venezuelans have left the country since 2015 ferguson is with the international crisis group and a senior analyst for the andes region he says people hope but chalets visit will lead to a more lasting u.n. presence one of the main hopes is regarded as regards what will come out of this has to do with the ongoing presence of the high commission of events where she lives is going to leave to people behind to monitor the situation and the idea here is to set up a permanent office or at least a semi permanent office in that.

brett: earlier, we spoke withbrett: someone frorom the international crisis group.e's his assesessment of thee situation.n. >> this is a s significant escalation, which unfortunately has s been coming for a a couplf weeks. what wee see is that the situation in sudan was not a result by the fall of omar al-bashir. whwhat happened was that the figurehead of the regime was replaced, but the regime remains in place and unfortunately, they remain unwilling to yield to the demands of the protesters and allow the civilians to take control of the government. unfortunately, we don't really see things improving. the african union, the peace and security council and others need to step in, tell the leaders that a military coup is and intolerarable way to run a country.y. momost importantly, what is need now is foror everybody t to calf restraint and stop firing on the protesters. that is what is most critical. brett: here are some of the other stories making headlines around the world. italy's prime minister, says that he will resign. it is the two parties in the governing coa

alley vias director of the iran project at the international crisis group gentlemen welcome to you all ali let's start with you is iran's president right as the white house lost its mind. well without any doubt the latest round of sanctions are absolutely counterproductive for an administration that pretends that it's interested in negotiations to target the political leadership of iran and try to designate iran's foreign minister iran's chief diplomat it's really a signal that this administration is not interested in negotiations otherwise it would not increase the political part price of engagement would it $40.00 iranians in way that would actually render talks almost impossible not to go to see in vienna what's the purpose do you think of these sanctions is a diplomatic is it economic what effect they intended to have. well and to my humble opinion i think it has several consequences and several reasons one of the reasons which is which come to my mind is really is that i think mr trump is somehow annoyed with the message that he received from the japanese prime minister. and that'

i feel gunson is with the international crisis group and a senior analyst for the end the region he says people hope but chalets visit will lead to a more lasting un presence one of the main hopes is regarded as regards what will come out of this has to do with the ongoing presence of the high commission in venezuela after she leaves is going to leave 2 people behind to monitor the situation the idea is to set up a permanent office or at least a semi permanent office in venezuela to monitor. hopefully to curb some of the worst of the human rights violations she did in the meetings that she held both the government and opposition but also with victims of human rights abuses. she came across as caring she came across as someone who was very anxious to make a difference but it is an uphill struggle this is a very deeply rooted crisis and it's not clear that her thing that the high commissioner can do will really make a significant difference she actually said in one of the meetings that she held the without a political settlement it was going to be difficult if not impossible to produce a l

when we're back we'll continue talking to use tell men a program director at the international crisis group. it's. not real world will know what's happened here but what if. the board was to be. you would usually lead to believe but i'm still used. to lead you to surround us just. monday morning from a little bit of this shit but i hoard i'm just going to the local butchers to. voice your own work or one lose your means lucas the chutzpah to look at your bullshit to look at you look isn't what you heard the theory was that. you don't like the word chapter and. your philosophy was. so small it seemed wrong when all rolls just don't hold. any you believe yet to shape out of disdain he comes to educated and in games from an equals betrayal. when so many find themselves worlds apart we choose to look for common ground. why a paradise with all year round turned into a round the experimentation field but agricultural chemicals we know that these chemicals have consequences they are major irritants there's no question otherwise why would the chemical company workers themselves be geared up that su

. >> i'm with the crisis group. just wondering, in west africa, with the united states pulling out i think it's 2000 or 3000 of the troops stationed there, as these groups march self, what does that signal for the future of the u.s.? security relations and perhaps democracy relations what does that look like in the region? >> i think that's part of the challenge or one of the challenges i was mentioning. like, how do we engage africa? if i was taking points on the counterintelligence, and then pulling out, what does this send as far as i message? do we stay or engage in terms of building the type of armies africa needs? i mean there's only one type of military africa needs which we call the republican army the republican army is an army that would present the people, it is outside the politics. there are only about six or seven of them. there again, i think it's a tremendous opportunity, so we can define security and stabilityne as it is reflecting the needs of the nogal population. it's part of the challenge. what

here we spent to advise here is the international crisis group's iran project director and he says tension between the u.s. and iran has reached a breaking point this is in many ways an 1014 moment in the region in the sense that a single incident could result in a region wide conflagration that would not just involve do the iranians and the americans but then tire region would be put on fire and you know i think what bolton has been doing deliberately and systematically over the past few months is that he has created a climate a certain situation in which there are string of attacks that would create a pattern of behavior that would eventually result in an american fatalities and at that point the president would be boxed in a situation that this might his reluctance he would feel that he has no choice other than responding militarily and this would result in a cattle in a catastrophic clash you know in the region. on to other news now and dozens have been injured in violent demonstrations and georgia's capital tbilisi police fired rubber bullets and tear gas at protesters who tried to st

arion capital we have it rahim yahya ibraheem he's a consulting analyst with the international crisis groupin london paul mellie a consulting fellow at chatham house an international affairs think tank and in all slow the norwegian capital we have tall binyam incense a professor of political ecology at the norwegian university of life sciences thank you to you all let me come to you 1st ibrahim in the m.e. this is a complex come conflict is that as we've just alluded to tensions between the different ethnic groups have been have been there for as long as there have been settlements why are we experiencing an upsurge in violence now in recent years. well thank you very much this is a killer good question there are there have been tension between the gone thunder line is. since 1000 years ago the dissent this. evolved over time exacerbated because of. the tension over natural resources more control over natural resources but particularly in the last 5 to 6 years because of the upsurge of jihadists and certainty in the region. doggone most of the jihadists are associated with pearl flannels an

south sudan from nairobi we're joined by alan boswell who's a senior analyst at the international crisis group and from syracuse in upstate new york joke joke who's the co-founder of the institute which is a think tank focusing on south sudan gentlemen welcome to you all pierre let's start with you the u.n. has stopped short of declaring a famine in south sudan how far away from that the way could it become a famine. then you're a father mandatory but we have to see with the recent analysis we provided. yesterday after it's we had the impression of the situation is more they were known it was one year ago. this is due to the fire about to despite the fact that these mortgage board according to the a.b.c. the analysis has been done recently there is less people who are needing humanitarian assistance so we have the impression that the situation is getting better of course we are in wait with conditions for the months there is it's due mainly according to the united states again is human it is the fact that there is a massive humanitarian assistance with schools with our stance says in disillusi

meeting of the un human rights council that's beautiful dancer and he's with the international crisis group he's a senior analyst for the and these region he's joining us from caracas via skype but thanks for speaking to us again on al-jazeera how is michele. being viewed in venezuela. i suppose it depends on which side of the political divide you're on the president maduro gave the films of political leader of this evening out time when he said he thought it a very positive visit a very good visit and he looked forward to much better relations with the u.n. high commissioner for refugees than under her predecessor who was a very very tough on them as well and. the opposition has divided the opposition in some of them believe that it was a waste of time for bachelor to come even that it was a bad idea because she's supposedly recognizing the government of president maduro that they don't recognize i think the the proof or the putting be a meeting i mean whether this is going to make any difference actually to the human rights situation on the ground as we go forward yeah well that was in fa