anyway, one's crital ball from the stand point of atchison or kenen would have been predictive of thentainment of the soviet union and they would have been flabbergasted if someone told them you would fight two major washes in korea and vietnam, you would have a stalemate in one and lose the other. so the sense that i try to develop in my paper, the level of assumptions, just didn't pay attention to so many millions of people who were at that time in colonies trying to get out from under them. a number of other points i wanted to make, but i see i have about four minutes left. my analysis of september 11th can be announced very briefly. i more or less agree with john mueller that we have grossly overestimated the threat that came from that terrible act. on the other hand, i understand perfectly well what the policy makers, former policy makers in this room were saying just a few minutes ago about the extraordinary shock that this produced, the unknown fears that something like the anthrax attack, whatever you want to call that, would generate. and the idea that you don't know what's a