tom: sass our focused on -- damian sassower focused on the romanian leu. es -- how does em get a bid with the likes of the romanian leu. damian: you need to seal -- you need to see real rates start to improve. inflation is still running hot. as it is that starts to happen that is a perfect environment for offshore investors to begin taking advantage of what you are seeing, the risk premium come the real yields embedded with a lot of these markets. that is going to happen but inflation needs to come first. tom: thank you so much for a briefing from damian sassower. where else we learn about the romanian leu? i think michael mckee has 10 in his pocket. lisa: i think you pronounced it about 50 different ways in your 14 tries. you saw the hundred been expected ppi print. the fed is data dependent, what data are they looking at? still very much the focus is on easing tensions and the appearance of that. that has led to a more constructive environment. the nasdaq is not outperforming as much as it was earlier. how much will it be the most sensitive one to inflati

we are joined by damian sassower. ets me about these em countries that are on this tightening spree is inflation is also still rising. how effective is this monetary policy? damian: very effective. if you want to look at emerging markets, they're obviously ahead of the curve. you are starting to see specifically in a local government bond curve like that in russia where they raise rates by 100 basis points, the curve is inverted. all of the talk about raising rates and choking economic growth in the u.s., what will that do to the curve? eventually it will invert the curve. if you take russia and other emerging markets, that is where we are headed. if you look at the kink in the russia curve that is indicative of what is starting to form in the belly of u.s. treasuries. it will be difficult for the fed to continue hiking rates. that is good for bonds. if you look at fixed income. you may be potentially generating a positive total return for year end. guy: i think we are bearing the lead. happy birthday. damian: it has b

damian sassower is here, chief emerging markets strategy at bloomberg intelligence. l, mr. bailey, madame lagarde, are they central bankers to the em world? damian: they are starting to look like it. the markets are definitely reacting to what is going on with the easy be -- the ecb. tom: how is indonesia reacting? damian: indonesia is going to announce tomorrow. they're going to get changed. the big moves this week are going to be mexico and russia. mexico is going to go 50 on wednesday. they are so far ahead of the curve at this point, many of these curves are flattening. some even inverted. i think a lot of it might be priced in. people are looking through to slower growth. tom: they always lag. what is em slowing? damian: there's no question. there are certain pockets of the market. here's the thing. everyone is saying central-bank's are raising rates in emerging markets. you expect currencies to rally. we are late cycle. the brazilian stock market is up nearly 13% your to date. in nigeria you are seeing much the same thing. people are saying a stronger dollar --

bloomberg's damian sassower joining us as well. it is fascinating watching these big themes play out. you've got inflation on one hand. we saw the ppi data today significantly hotter than anticipated. the market is seeing that is rearview mirror stuff. ever the less, it is already factored into the thinking. russia, ukraine, no idea. how do you have any idea of certainty to price in risk around war in europe when, once it starts, we have no idea how it ends? damian: you hit the nail on the head in the sense that what are we really talking about? we are talking about five-year credit default swaps in the russian ruble. if you are looking for russian ruble, certainly commodity prices which are up something on the order of 11% year to date, the best start on record since 1993. the ruble has obviously not kept pace with that, so many will argue perhaps the ruble has some upside here. so again, very stretched levels, but don't ask me to be a russia bull here. i think there's a lot of risk overhanging. it is a very binary outcome, certai

joining us with more is damian sassower, chief emerging markets credit strategist for bloomberg intelligencethe ruble is cratering. credit default swaps now signal a 50% chance of default. damian: five-year cds in russia is now at 1000 basis points. to be clear, ecuador, serial defaulter, 900 basis points. turkey, which has been the whipping boy of markets, only 500 basis points. so clearly the market is putting a high probability on default. moody's is towing the line as well. moody's has them on negative credit watch. for all intents and purposes, it is off the market. every thing we are looking at in terms of dollar-ruble, forget it. it is not reflective of a clearing price given the sanctions and given the trade. dollar ruble is meaningless in this market. i think what we have to look at is not all of the japan on the straley adjoining the u.s. and west in sanctioning russia. it is those who have not been, specifically turkey, india, china, the uae, and saudi arabia. we are looking for what comes next. this is their time on the geopolitical stage to mckay stand, and we are not seeing tha

let's get to damian sassower in new york. what do you make of all of this?amien: it is unbelievable what is happening. francine really hit the nail on the head of it for me, it is who is not involved? who is not supporting this? it is india, turkey, china. these countries need to step up. they are on the world stage. the fact that what we have seen with a few of the chinese banks relenting on lines of credit means nothing. the fact that turkey has sold drones and so much technology and weaponry to ukraine and will not stand beside them, i think erdogan will have to make a decision. this is their time on the world stage and i am hoping some of these emerging markets deliver. haslinda: it does seem that capital may be moving towards ems in this part of the world. is that a fair thing to say? damian: taking a step back, russia, from a population perspective, is the size of java island. it is a huge country, but on the ground scheme of things, it is no bigger than guangdong province. i just think, if you want to talk about, from a strategy perspective what is th