just for more, we are joined by dan hansen. -- jonathan: for more, we are joined by dan hansen.as al picture of osborne shaking a money tree. the takeaway was the osborne giveaways. or d.c.ee giveaways cuts? >> what actually happens looking beneath the numbers is osborne was handed a huge windfall. they came on the back of tax receipts but also that interest payments -- but also that interest payments. he smoothed the past that's the path of department of spending. over the forecast. lower.ng a cumulatively he may have told the parliament that i am giving away all of his money but they handed him a huge windfall. before taking account of any policy, he was 27 billion pounds cumulatively better off. jonathan: do the projections turn out to be reality? we have seen borrowing tick higher. what may she think that is good to happen next year? dan: there has been weakness this year. they expect a little bit of a rebound this year. earnings are lower on the backend of the forecast. income tax is down. where the money's come from is modeling changes by the kobe are -- obr.e kobe are it

one of the men charged with digging to the data is dan hansen, let's bring him in. mbers for october, how do they change the world? dan: you are quite right. the numbers were weaker. be 5pect more over 2016 to million or 7 billion pounds higher. what we expect them to do with that is not the weakness to the forecast. back into the forecast and it will be slightly smaller. but they will get is a slight windfall from the interest payments. yields will be down, we expect inflation forecasts to be slightly weaker. interest payments could be slightly lower. overall, you're quite right. a surplus of the back end of the forecast will be smaller than the 10 billion they had penciled in in july. jonathan: i'm back and forth between two stories. what is happening in turkey and mr. osborne. we're getting some headlines on the turkish situation. i want to go to caroline hyde for more. caroline: this is coming live from the president of turkey. he is saying that too on it in a fight jets violated turkish airspace. he is speaking once again, standing by his criticism that russia d