dan juergen says absolutely yes.ome fall, he says we will see a market back in allen's with declining production and rising demand and that will push oil prices to around $50 a barrel. he explained why on bloomberg. have been saying since february we thought the second half of the year would be quite different because we could see production going down and it is now accelerating. that is one of the things that has caught everyone's attention. tightens,ket disruptions would be more significant. based upon no major disruptions. weyou have venezuela blowup, could be looking at a different situation. >> how different? this point, we can't say what it is but you've seen a oflion barrels a day canadian oil sands and nigeria is down to a level it hasn't been in several years, so there are these disruptions at the market but we have had enough supply to offset them. downturns don't last forever and this one started 18 or 20 months ago. alix: many banks have raised their price for the shirt -- for the short term, like rank of

we are talking more on oil today at 12:30 eastern with dan juergen of ihs. we can see $50 oil by the fall. more from him in the next hour. and then the goldman call straight from the horses mouth, global head of commodities research jeff curry will join us at 4:30 eastern tomorrow from a conference call in california. betty: definitely want to tune in for that. let's check in on news. taylor has more. getting: economies closer to pulling out of recession. russia's gdp fell 2% in the first quarter. doing better than expected. the largest energy exporter has been hurt by the collapse in oil prices and international sanctions. hasing google trade freely made russian industries mark repetitive. and the u.k. has got its growth forecast for the british economy. the fascination of industry warns the referendum on the european union membership has put a dark cloud of uncertainty over the outlook. the group sees gdp rising 2% and next. young somalians tired of war are giving up on the homeland and going to europe. they do not have exact numbers, but the rate of depar