dan niles in the house. he's coming up next. much more on the facebook fallout still to come. >> famed tech fund manager dan niles didn't believe the facebook ipo hype from the start. calling the stock overvalue before it even began trading. is he having a change of heart? now that the stock is well below its ipo price? >> they will have to get females on the board. they have to get diversity on the board or detract from the standing i think of facebook. >> police the head of xerox is taking mark zuckerberg to task over its all male board. that exclusive interview is coming up. falling off the fiscal cliff. former counsel, marty feldstein, explains what the u.s. needs to do to avoid the fate of europe's debt crisis. crossed above the 2. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we're hitting new highs. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 the spx is on my radar. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i'm on top of it all with charles schwab. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i use streetsmart edge and its tools like... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 screener plus. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i

let me bring in dan niles. he's a veteran technology investor and analyst as well. let's get reaction to those results. dan, good to have you on the program. any of this trouble you in terms of facebook's long-term prospects that gm says that the ads are ineffective and that the public is a bit skeptical? what do you think? i think you have to be. there are two ways to look at it. longer term, facebook is going to continue to grow the number of users. 2.1 billion internet users are out there and facebook added about 900 million of them. the problem is, what you were just talking about, which is how do you monetize that or make money off of it? it's pretty easy with google, you know what the return is if you're advertising on it. on facebook, how do you know what the return is? you're running an ad but people aren't clicking on it, et cetera. it gets a lot more challenging to figure out what the return is to you as an advertiser. >> so is it fair to say -- we know that this deal is going to be oversubscribed. you know, recent technology ipos, you look at linkedin, dow

maybe that's a little of dan niles' lift here today, judge. a lot of spaek lative buying in here. four-to-one calls to puts. that's very unusual for microsoft. the 31 calls that expire next week, that's been the short-term call they're playing the most aggressively. they've gone from 22 cents to 62 cents today. that's another reason, judge, people love options because you can triple your money on short-term moves like that. these options, like i say, expire next friday though. >> got ya. final trades when we come back. h geico driver casey mears. i told him the secret to saving money on car insurance. he told me the secret to his car setup. first he adjusts... first he adjusts... (sfx:engine revving drowns out gecko's dialogue) then he... then he... (sfx:loud drilling noise continues to drown out gecko's dialogue) ...and a quarter cup of pineapple juice. or was that the secret to his barbecue sauce? hey, "secret" sauce. geico®. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. and i thought "i can't do this, it's just too hard." then there was a moment. when

let's go back to dan niles. love your quick comment on whether you'd buy yahoo! here given the situation loeb has raised. and then i want to talk facebook. >> i think for me there are easier stories to deal with. i've got other things that are more interesting. >> would you be a buyer of facebook share sns. >> you have to remember there's a difference between a great company and a great stock. if you look at groupon, linkedin, zynga, they came out and a month later you lost 20% to 40%. facebook is going to trade in that first instant at some ridiculous valuation. the question is do you want to own it at that price? i'm willing to sit back and see where it trades first. because you've had those three companies are growing faster than facebook on a year over year revenue basis and they all went down. that's the thing you need to think about it. but long-term, yeah, it's a great company. >> scott and i had dinner with maybe 15 different hedge fund managers. the consensus 150 billion to, what do you think? >> it wouldn't surprise me in the first instant of trading. i

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. >>> it's also one of the hottest ipos in recent memory but dan niles isn't so hot on facebook.nterested to hear what he has to say. you'll find out at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. >> as we look at how the heat map is shaping up, a lot more red than green. back in a moment. but when i was diagnosed with prostate cancer... i needed a coach. our doctor was great, but with so many tough decisions i felt lost. unitedhealthcare offered us a specially trained rn who helped us weigh and understand all our options. for me cancer was as scary as a fastball is to some of these kids. but my coach had hit that pitch before. turning data into useful answers. we're 78,000 people looking out for 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. so why should our anniversary matter to you? because for 200 years, we've been helping ideas move from ambition to achievement. and the next great idea could be yours. ♪ >>> welcome

glu mobile, again, dan niles talking about it from salt, dr. j. talking about it right here.hat's a spike and that stock's up nearly 9%. >>> coming up on the "halftime report," jcpenney's moment of truth hours away when it reports earnings. we're taking our positions with a top analyst ahead of the numbers. >>> facebook frenzy is here. so, which stocks are traders friending this week? make your move. watch "the fast money halftime report" and "fast money," noon and 5:00 p.m. eastern. not quite knowing what the next phase was going to be, you know, because you been, you know, this is what you had been doing. you know, working, working, working, working, working, working. and now you're talking about, well you know, i won't be, and i get the chance to spend more time with my wife and my kids. it's my world. that's my world. ♪ >>> high-end retailer saks reporting a 15% jump in first-quarter profit, but sales came in well below wall street expectations. let's break down the numbers and get a jcpenney earnings preview. deborah weinswig at citigroup joins us on the fast line. debor

now does famed technology analyst and investor dan niles think facebook is starting to look attractiveoff? we'll ask him. >>> how can the u.s. avoid falling off a fiscal cliff? former council of economic advisers chairman martin feldstein gives us his economic fix coming up. maria and i look forward to seeing you at the top of the hour from the new york stock exchange. >>> we all know that sports content costs are going through the roof. but espn still making a lot of money for disney. how exactly are they doing it? julia boorstin live in boston at the cable tv industry conference. she has a special guest. >> thanks so much, brian. i'm joined with the president of espn and co-chairman of disney networks john skipper. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> before we get into content costs i have to ask you about an announcement you made last week. a partnership with twitter. why is espn partnering with twitter and what will that mean? >> we think sports is inherently social. we generally believe big social media networks are -- we've done a number of things with facebook and

fame tech fund manager dan niles weighs in with his thoughts. should be very interesting.nd i will see you at the top of the hour from the new york stock exchange. mandy, we'll see you then. >> thank you. >>> earlier you heard from an analyst making the bold call about the dow hitting 100,000 in 25 years. let's talk a little more short term now. joining us, a technician who's made a number of bold and correct calms on this show recently. john kozar. founder of asbury research. forget about the $100,000 call. you can't go that far out, i understand. a little more short term. maybe the next three or four months. what do you see happening with the broader stock market. >> i think we're start of some kind of a selloff here that we're about halfway through with. it looks like there can be -- i'm looking for maybe another 4% to 5% in most of the major averages, maybe down to 1290 to 1280 in the s&p. still a little bit more work to do on the downside. i think as we get towards the end of the year, early part of 2013, i think we could start to get some legs again. >> why do you se