dan niles just sold out of facebook, we're going to check in with him. a look at which names are leading this downturn with the dow down more than 800 points. dom, what's going on >> there is some question about vulnerability in the marketplace right now. the stocks that could be poised for kind of outsized losses in cases market sell off and go past today f the tech sector above the trend line over the longer term. the s&p 500 was trading roughly 14% above it, the tech sector roughly 17% above its long term trend line you see why maybe here you see a little bit more of a decline the reason why a lot of traders are not panicking just yet is that even in the last 12 months we have seen broader-based sell-offs to the tune of around 7%, 8%, 9% in certain parts of the market and in technology only to have it bounce back toward trend lines in the upside for sure now, the reason why we're looking at this, there are 11 stocks in the s&p 500 tech and communication services sectors trading at least 20% above that longer term trend line the 200 day average price o

joining me right now is portfolio manager dan niles. dan, it is always a pleasure to see you.w. but i want to start with your preponderatation. you say you believe -- your expectation. you believe we will see a 10-20% correction in the s&p 500 before the end of the year. tell us why. >> well, i think it's pretty simple. the market up until now has really been driven by stimulus. if you look at the federal reserve, they expanded their balance sheet9 by 77% last year. it's up another 18% year-over-year right now. if you look at money supply which takes into account what the fed is doing as well as all the stimulus we got under president trump and now president biden, money supplies' up 14% year-over-year. by the way, that's down from 27%, and that's the highest it's been since 1970, since we had inflation. and that's a really the key here, is i think that money supply -- we've already seen inflation, headline, core be up around 5% which are some of the highest levels since before the global financial rye sis -- crisis, and i think the fed will be forced the taper before the end

thank you, dan niles, for joining us here today on "the closing bell."resting one >> usually a background factor and something we don't check in on all that often and interesting to see how this has played out over the last four to five years and is this compiled based on the coverage of geopolitical risk. it's a tech space analysis seeing how much of the perceived geopolitical risk is in the air and they're at low levels relative to last year and some of these significant signposts, north korea's missile test and the start of the trade war with the u.s. steel tariffs imposed back in 2018 naturally, the pandemic right there. the election seemed like it wasn't concentrated on the question is what do you do with this? the market did really well through this entire period when they were trading based on trade warhead lines and the market would sell off briefly and you carry it higher and it's not to say this this low level of geopolitical risk is in itself bullish for the market and the forward looking basis and does it mean it's complacent and whether it's

dan niles, founder of the satori fund what we've heard is just stay away, when we talk to fund managersg, and what it will do next >> so three weeks ago, sara, if you remember, you asked me this question on china. i said, look, you can't touch any of these stocks. we admitted we were wrong, buying them after the archegos mult multidown. so what you saw on furtuesday, that the chinese state-control media said the markets are misinterpreting what we're trying to do they could stabilize at any moments. the regulators at china had calls with big brokerage houses trying to calm market. it makes sense if you wipe out that trillion dollars worth of market -- at some point, that 10% is going to start to get really upset i think finally that call their attention, which is why i'm willing to buy -- i started buying a basket on wednesday, added more on thursday, and today, while shorting a lot of u.s. stocks i could balance against it and we've got some chart on our website that i just published, which those charts so more detail on that. >> so did you buy didi that's sort of the poster child for

. >> coming up on the show, noted tech investor dan nile

concerned about how it will affect not only under theories, but other food in these dams along the nile, egypt. and dan said, the lack of a deal on the dam will effect the region security, while sudan has ruled out going to were over the dam, joint military drills between it and it's not the neighbor has cause. if you appear to increase its security around it's dam on the blue nile. so damn, government also says it's open to a short term agreement on filling the dam under certain conditions. some analysts say that may be necessary to insure through dan can continue generating hydro electricity. so that is going to lose huge amount of resources by reducing hydro for so this is why we can see huge power outage or out got out of the polar. so the main effect on the hydro power b b during the this period for the 15000000000 cubic meter. thank you for down in egypt. have turned to the un security council to provide solution as if you'll be a start at 2nd filling. if you'd be a hazard, get to the move thing, the african union should resume handling the talks. he but morgan like to 0. ruth harris, blue nile i

challenges that bob way face today. despite going tension with agency, dan, ethiopia is set for the next phase of filling them on the blue nile. july on a just i have been trying to juvenile moiz is assassinated in his home by a group of unknown attackers. ah, i'm sammy, they, dan, this is al jazeera alive from the hall. so coming up, playing catch up with america as long as war comes to an end and its troops, depart, african forces are left to pick up the pieces. the scramble for oxygen indonesia struggles to treat patients as the number of corona virus cases, searches across the country. the glitz and glamour of can the film festival makes it come by cancer and demick hiring. ah, i hate the president juvenile noise has been assassinated. the inter and prime minister has announced the state of emergency dis, asking the un security council to me to as soon as possible, called joseph says the an identified attackers who rated the president's private residents, spoke english and spanish bally ugly. the assailants spoke english and spanish as head of the government, still in charge, i have gathered superior council of the nation

by going tension with the did since the dan, ethiopia, is that for the next phase of filling them on the blue nile july on a just me hello, i'm marian demising, london. our main story. this our, the former south african president, jacob's numerous saying that he will not surrender to police as a deadline approaches for him to hand himself. in earlier, he joined the crowd of his supporters who rallied outside his home and the countless vowing to resist any attempt to detain him. humor has been found guilty of contempt, of course. failing to appear before a corruption inquiry faces 15 months in prison. on friday, applied to the court for the sentence to be unknown, citing medical reasons, zoom continues to deny any wrong doing effective that i was busted with a punitive jail sentence without fire in something which should in induce a sense of sup to all those who had a fit on ended, the rule of south africa is fast lighting bag tool. big, tight rules. well out there, so me to mila has been following the story for us from outside. jacob zoom is home in the canada. so he's used this opportunity to try

by going tension with agency dan e p o period for the next phase of filling them on the blue nile. july on a, just a al jazeera world needs to be great who left the middle east and built remarkable life finding success in germany of the united states. yet never forgetting their homelands of the rock and palestine inspiring human story around the world. the designer of the atomic cycle analogy 0. this lights may look like a city from the sky, but their fishing vessels just outside origin. tina's exclusive economic zone, the united states launched operations southern cross to combat, illegal and unregulated fishing in the southern atlantic. argentina's coast guard say the main task is to control the movements. so they do not cross into argentine territory from this home arjun, time authorities can monitor for what's happening in economic exclusive ones. but what a 40 here are saying is that what's important is to regulate what's happening in international waters. ah, your challenges there with me. so robin in doha, reminder of our top stories, former us president, donald trump's mult

, but the bob way faces today, despite going tension with agency dan, ethiopia, is set for the next phase of filling them on the blue nile. july on i just, i this is al jazeera ah hello there. i'm how they see user life and go home coming up in the next 60 minutes to grow and leaders layer their conditions for considering the cold play. feel governments including a un investigation into alleged war kind doesn't killed us or a military transport plane, mississippi way and crashes in the southern philippines. a cheap suite tasting a chilling. the drug is distributed in africa and what's being described as a game changer for treating babies and children and cyber attackers shop that a supermarket chain and these companies worldwide, few, they're being held to run and in sport, england set up a european sham chip, semi fund with denmark, when they think you crying for new service, december, the 1st time in 25 years. ah. to go in forces in order to t o p. a say they're ready for seas far talks with the federal government as long as certain conditions are met. that is a growing people's liberation front, posted a statement on

dan e p. o period for the next phase of filling them on the blue nile. july on i just frank assessments, schools and shelters of been reduced to rubble. how do you think the shapes of generation and their politics, their life has been shipped by vitamin some conflict inside story on our jazeera, something was going to change. has anything really changed? this is this demick violin that needs to be addressed at its core. we are in a race against the barrier and know what to say. we are all say we're looking at the world as it is right now, not the world. we like it to be. the devil is always going to be in the house. the bottom line. when i was just there on me, be the hero. the world needs right now i was, ah, ah, ah haitian president of anomalies is assassinated in his home by a group of unknown attackers. ah, what channels is there like for my headquarters in ohio? okay, to also a hedge scramble for oxygen, india and denise, excuse me, struggles to treat patients as a number of current. a virus cases searches across the country, playing catch up as mar

but the bob way face today, just by going tensions with agency, dan, ethiopia, is that for the next say, the billing it them on the blue nile july on a just a call to brazil, a president to be impeached. his anger grows up, his handling of a cobra, 1900 condemning. ah, hello, i'm darn jordan. this is algebra ally from coming up. hundreds, a told to leave their homes in canada. wildfires spread in the western province of british columbia. a last minute leader, free for jacob's duma, the 4 months, but african present was due to the south a 15 month jail to.

nile. july on a just i me this is al jazeera. ah hello, i'm samuel dan. this is the news out alive from dell. how coming up in the next 60 minutes? hundreds of afghan government troops, fleet, the neighboring jacob, stan as a bon fight to capture more districts across the country. ethiopia is prime minister, blames to grey and rebels for the conflict just the day after they showed ready for talks. think talk thick black smoke drifts towards tylenol capital after a factory explosion in a bank called airport. and how the beliefs of indigenous july ends once dismissed as primitive becoming mainstream. and in sports and in his own job is 3 to the quarter finals at wimbledon. cheberra beating former french open champion, eager, white packed hit a career high. at this tournament. ah, hundreds of afghan government troops had fled across the border into to jacob stand as the tale bon captures. more territory taught upon fighters took several districts in the northern province of the sean this weekend after afghan soldiers fled their posts. the afghan government s

nile july on a j. o i . this is al jazeera. ah, hello, i'm sammy a dan. this is the new the live from coming up in the next 60 minutes form of south african president, jacob's doom, a warns this country is sliding back to apartheid. it defies a court ruling to ryan rebels condition to seize far with the c o p and government to include a troop withdrawal and un investigation. sheila opens a convention to rewrite the constitution inherited from long time military ruler of got in the shade, and thousands are killed off to a military transport, playing misses the run by crashes in the philippine. i'm jeff ash, with board max staff and when formerly ones all stream growing free, the red full driver making it full victories in 5 races to extend his lead at the top of the championship. ah, south africa form of president jacob's duma, as accused a judge of bias, hours before a deadline to hand himself. the police expires. zoom has been giving his 1st full comments to the media since being sentenced to 15 months in prison last week for failing to appear before a c

nile july on a jazz eat up? oh, i this is al jazeera. ah, hello, i'm sammy's a dan. this is the new life from coming up in the next 60 minutes. for my south african president, jacob's duma warns the country sliding back to apartheid as he defies a court ruling to ryan rebels condition to seize fire with the c o p and government to include a troop withdrawal and un.

piano and egypt dubbed the guardians of the nile have raced concerns. egypt is worried about the amount of water it will get when the damage failed. and so dan says it's concerned about the impact, the dam will have on its own dams, especially one name to say res, which lies 100 kilometers away from the guard. he said the whole city is dumb, has the capacity of 7000000000 cubic meters, and the renaissance done has the capacity of 74000000000 cubic meter. you can't operate the 2 down without the information sharing agreement that is legally binding, which we need to guarantee the safety and operation of our dams to ensure farmers compliant crop. it's not the only security issue if europe has been facing in the region since november, it's been locked in the border conflict with the damn over elfish ago. a 3000 square kilometer agricultural air, yet claimed by both sides a colonial era agreement. with that as part of to them. but if you can pharmacy it belongs to them and they've been farming on it for nearly 50 years. talks to end the border conflict between sedan and if you have thought since december for dances, it was if you to abide by the