big tumble is a hawkish fed the biggest risk to your portfolio this year do not a break down with dan nilesen fintech's fumble. why today's selloff might not be a bad thing when it comes to risk. >>> finally, crypto crumbling as bitcoin nears 40k. what's driving the action there. if you ask some, nothing we will discuss that >>> first up for today's feed, we'll start with the selloff the nasdaq is coming off the worst day since february after the hawkish notes from the fed sent yields higher and growth names plunging is more volatility ahead as we said, here to discuss, dan niles is with us dan, we know you've been waiting for an environment like this i imagine this is exactly what you had thought was coming and i'm going to guess that you think it's not done by any means. >> well, unless you think inflation is done, and unless you think the fed is done, it's hard to imagine that this is done because you've had -- if you look at the dividends included, the s&p is up 100% over three years it's up 47% since the beginning of a global pandemic and so, my belief is that's driven by, you know, fi

dan niles is here on how to put your money to work. where is the money, $2 million in covid testing money has been used to house illegal migrants at the southern border? congressman mike gallagher is joining us coming up. i am speaking with jpmorgan chairman and ceo jamie dimon this weekend, his response to the labor shortage, the irs spying on your bank account. you will hear his answer as well to this. you said you thought jpmorgan would outlive the chinese communist party but you walked it back. who told you jamie dimon, chairman and ceo of one of the largest banks to walk that back, that is coming up but take a look at the top newsmakers on "mornings with maria". you were the first to file against controversial healthcare worker vaccine mandate. >> there is no statutory authority for osha which was charged, showered next to -- when you're working with chemicals to force a medical procedure on tens of millions of americans. maria: how important is it to get somebody like joe rogan to open the door to other big banks? >> we added the

dan niles, always appreciate it. sara. >> your most boring position cash is doing pretty well. >>> up next, mike santoli looking at the risk of recession amid a recent batch of mixed economic data. >> and later, katie stockton breaking down the charts to see if today's rally is the head fake or the start of a potential bigger comeback. wel rhtac'lbeig bk. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure... ...demands a lotion this pure. new go

the nasdaq the worst performer having the worst week since march 2020 let's bring in dan niles dan, alwaysat to have you join us. i was saying in an earlier tease a top five pick for the year is cash i'm sure you're feeling good about that pick three weeks into the year probably should have had it for all five picks have you deployed that cash? >> yeah. two of the other five topics are up for the year. one is uso up about 12% why the regional bank index up 1%. cash is third best right now to the question on deploying some we did deploy some today. we actually took 10% of the cash in the portfolio and put it into a basket of small cap stocks today in the russell 2000 and about 5% of that cash to work in regional banks which we sold before the start of jpmorgan's results because looking statistically and we can get boo the reasons why but banks tend to go down and you typically get a better spot to buy in and got lucky i guess and able to buy some of that today in general, we still actually have even with putting 15% of the cash to work we have a lot of cash in the portfolio so we're looking

that you will be tracking this even closer than we are because you have a lot of money riding on it dan nilesu. >> thanks, jon. >> dan will actually be joining us for an extended conversation today. a "techcheck" plus on the selloff in growth and tech stocks we'll also talk crypto as bitcoin slipped under 40k and how they're all related at 12:30 p.m. eastern, 9:30 a.m. pacific where i am go to cnbc.com slash techcheck or check out our twitter account and we'll tweet out a link at cnbc "techcheck. >>> they just upped the name to a buy. plenty of growth levers to pull like cloud security, but that key risks remain including big competitors and rising costs "techcheck" is back in two stay with us >>> welcome 20221 was a record year for mna. the block buster deals continue with take-two's acquisition plan for zynga. what are some names in the media space that could be ready for an acquisition or a deal. julia boorstin is threading it all together for us. julia? >> well, jon, a number of media stocks have soared in the past couple of trading sessions on m & a potential. this morning, deutsche bank

here's dan niles from thursday.ch. >> i think the fed's going to raise rates five to six times, i think they're going to start to work down their balance sheet this year and i think you're going to have 10 year treasuries get close to 3% when all is said and done in 2022 and i think that's going to drive a 20% 20%correction in the stock mark. i think you'll see multiples compress a lot. maria: we also had on this program jamie dimon earlier in the week last week who said, look, for the first time in his life he is seeing serious pressure on wages and on people. he later said he's also expecting five to six, seven rate hikes from the federal reserve. how do you trade around that, hank? >> well, look, in that environment where you had that many rate hikes you would not see much easing of inflation in the second half and i think a lot of it has to do with does this covid-19 virus, does it recede to something less than a pandemic, something more manageable that allows the supply chain disruptions to work themselves out.

dan niles is here on how to put your money to work.

. >> we're going to dig more into this and bring in dan niles. when he joined cnbc in late december he said to expect a 20% correction in 2022 dan, we are not there yet but your call is looking fairly precedent as mike was saying some of these names that have sold off continue to fall further today. >> yeah, i mean i think, unfortunately, the big difference, and we've been talking about this since last year, is you have inflation really high and people just forget how much of the market is just driven by liquidity, which some people take those stimulus checks and the fed expanding their balance sheet and some people buy crypto, others by meme stocks, other people buy houses, boats, and stocks. and so when that money starts to go away, you end up with this starting to happen the one metric nobody really talks about is valuations. we've been mentioning this for a while, but at the peak of the tech bubble, you take the market and divide it by gdp that was 1.4 it got up to 2 it's down to 1.8, 1.7. the average for 50 years is 0.8. so if you've got a fe

year-over-year on inflation right now at the producer level per drama right now is found in portfolio manager dan niles's great to have you this weekend. you have been a masterful engineering this economy, investing around the things living there. how are you investing now obviously is not transitory. >> yes unfortunately it does not. so, if you look at her top five picks coming into this year to are actually focused on inflation theme. we like oil a lot so the u.s. so, if you look at the demand for oil it was around 96 million barrels per day this last year. we think that is going to surpass the 2019 peaks to get to about 100 million barrels this year as we all go on vacations and start flying again and business is more fully reopened by the end of the year. so that has already had a strong start of the year we think that's going to continue. the second one is the regional bank etf a very. >> you are expecting the fed to raise interest rates this year between five and six times is that right? >> yes i think so. you've got to remember the last time unemployment was below 4%, the fed had already been ra

thanks very much we will talk soon, dan niles from satori. we'll be right back. . .. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ only in theaters december 17th. maria: have a great day, great to see you, "varney and company" starts now. stuart: good morning. today biden's presidency is on the line failing almost every issue today he goes into a closed-door meeting with senate democrats. he must persuade them to somehow pass voting reform. not looking good with senators manchin and kirsten sinema refused to drop the filibuster. one of the lowest approval ratings of any president, down to 33% in the

spook by the federal reserve raising interest rates potentially multiple times this year as investor dan niles told us last week. >> i think the fed will raise raise 5 or 6 times. they will start to work down the balance sheet and you will have 10-year treasuries get close to 3% when all said in done in 2022. i think you will see multiple compress a lot. maria: well, multiple compression has begun and yields are rising. take a look at the yield, 1.1 basis point. bond yields yesterday hit two-year high and big tech slammed the nasdaq. earnings and other factor this morning, one-third of all financials are reporting this week. today we are awaiting bank of america and morgan stanley. the stock this morning are mixed after goldman sachs was mixed fourth quarter earnings chopped off the dow industrials with selloff in goldman. the stock is up about half percent. european markets this morning are mixed. ftse 100 in london right now as is trading up 16, cac is up 47 and dax index higher by 47. in asia markets finished mostly lower, mornings with maria is live right now. ♪ ♪ ♪ maria: and your morning

yesterday maria, incredible interview with portfolio manager dan niles on what dan is expecting fromnd the federal reserve, listen to this. maria: you say the number 1 concern for investors this year should be how far behind the federal reserve is on dealing with inflation, so give me your ideas for the backdrop of this economy as a way to have us better understand how to invest around it? >> i think the fed is going the raise rates 5 or 6 times. i think they will start to work down balance sheet this year and you will have ten-year treasuries get close to 3% when all said and done in 2022 and i think that's going to drove a 20% correction in the stock market. the s&p 500 at some point during the year and i think you will see multiples compress a lot. >> your reaction and also pointed out that when unemployment rate was below 4% the last time, the federal reserve had been raising interest rates for 2 years. >> look, i totally gay with that, dagen. the fed is horribly behind the curve. they have left things way too listening and admitted in public that they miscalculated the slack in

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we spoke with portfolio manager dan niles last week and he was really ahead of this selloff.> i think the fed's going to raise rates five to six times. i think they're going to start to work down their balance sheet this year and i think you're going to have 10 year treasuries get close to 3% when all is said and done in 2022 and i think that's going to drive a 20% correction in the stock market. the s&p 500 at some point during the year. so i think you're going to see multiples compress a lot. maria: so scotty, we already have the nasdaq in correction territory, down 10.7% from the highs. marathon asset ceo also says he's expecting, get this, eight interest rate hikes, eight. your reaction, scott? what are you expecting? >> i'll take the under. maria, i'll take the under on that as well as what dan said. remember, the fed tried to do this a few years ago and it didn't go so well and they reversed course. i like what you and allie talked about with regard to cost pressures and things jamie dimon said. a lot of cost pressures are related to supply, supply of labor, goods and m

dan niles just said five, six. jamie dimon said six.oes it make sense to you that we're going to see bigger moves every month, every meeting, rather? in other words, maybe it's not 25 basis points but it's a half a point raise. do you think we'll start seeing 50 basis point raises beginning in march? >> it's a possibility. and it's all about inflation. you know, we get the february inflation read about six days before the march fomc meeting. so there's probably another opportunity there for the fed to pivot even more hawkish or maybe a little bit more doveish but it is realistic that -- what jerome powell has said is they are going to fight inflation and they're going to fight inflation at the expense of what might happen to the stock market and other factors. they're going to fight inflation. so if that means 50 basis point rate hikes along the way, they would do it. but i think i would caution that with we may see a rate hike in march. we may see another rate hike. but i think as the year unfolds, we see where inflation really heads w

dan niles joined me earlier this month, he is predicting multiple raise rates. >> i think the fed willk they'll start to work down their balance sheet this year and i think you're going to have 10-year treasuries get close to 3% when all is said and done in 2022. i think that's going to drive a 20% correction in the stock market, the s&p 500 at some point during the year. i think you're going to see multiples compress a lot. maria: katherine, what's your reaction and what are you expecting? do you think the fed goes for half a point hike in march or quarter point? >> this fed has always been about should they but will they. should they have started tapering six to 12 months ago? yes. should they increase interest rates four to six times? yes. but will they? remember, maria and audience, this is really important. this is a fed that changed the target to an average of 2%. this is a fed that explicitly said they would let inflation run hot and this is a fed that incorporated -- remember this -- social justice and climate change into their monetary poll policy purview. so should they? yes.

here's dan niles, the founder of satori fund, who told us what to expect from this market well before watch this. >> i think the fed's going to raise rates five to six times. i think they're going to start to work down their balance sheet this year and i think you're going to have 10-year treasuries get close to 3% when all is said and done in 2022 and i think that's going to drive a 20% correction in the stock market, the s&p 500 at some point during the year, so i think you're going to see multiples compress a lot. maria: so kenny, multiples certainly have been compressing, what are we at 7% selloff? he's looking for 20%. what are your expectations. >> i think he's very aggressive. i don't think the fed's going to raise rates seven or eight times, six or seven times this year and i don't think the 10-year's going to get to 3% by the end of the year. i think it probably gets to 2, 2 and-a-half percent, i think that's fair. i think the talk of six and seven rate hikes is starting to create this angst because all it says to me is that the fed has lost control of the conversation. what

dan niles told us to expect a 20% correction just two weeks ago on this program. >> i think the fed's going to raise rates five to six times. i think they're going to start to work down their balance sheet this year and i think you're going to have 10 year treasuries get close to 3% when all is said and done in 2022 and i think that's going to drive a 20% correction in the stock market, the s&p 500 at some point during the year, i think you're going to see multiples compress a lot. maria: oh, we are seeing multiples compress all right. now there is a new debate taking place on wall street. will markets respond so violently to multiple rate hikes that the fed will have to get out of the way and put a pause on it all after just one or two rates. watch stephanie pomboy and larry lindsey. >> i think the fed is going to probably increase rates four times this year, starting in march. but the market is going to he react strongly at some point and i don't think the fed will, once that happens, continue to push forward. i think they'll take a pause. i see a 20% drop, something like that. >> i

now you got some big hitters like jamie dimon and dan niles telling people to expect six interest rates, your mortgage, et cetera all are going to see increases in rates because the federal reserve is going to raise interest rates. this is a major move right now for the economy. unfortunately have to deliver the news that things will get worse in 2022 before they get better. unfortunately the white house keep saying the worst is behind us, there is absolutely no evidence to say the worst is behind us. with got a lineup of ships in the pacific we got inflation a major problem. so that is where we are rachel we are seeing inflation worsen as we speak. >> i thought pete booted judges save the supply chain crisis it is so crazy you report this and tell us what you have on your lineup for this morning because it's an amazing lineup. >> thank you so much. we are marking one year of joe biden as president. he will marches one year on thursday one year from that inauguration he made so many promises. we are going to deep dive and take a look of the year that was and what we should expect for t