i'm back with tom hoenig and dan niles.you just made a great point about the swiss national bank raising interest rates and markets worry that it was going to sell all of its tech holdings. we saw another horrible week in stocks last week. how does this play out, dan? what do you think happens? you think we have more losses in the stock market? do you think inflation gets worse? how are you protecting yourself? >> we've got slides for your viewers on dan niles.com. the quick summary is falling. unless you trade the portfolio every day, you're better off in cash right now, which is one of our top picks as we entered the year. i think you're better off whosing 6 to 7% to inflation, losing to 30 to 50% in the stock market which i think is what it will go down from peak to trough sometime next year as the u.s. economy is still struggling with high inflation and, also, your dealing with a slowing economy. don't forget we got negative gdp growth already in q1. the atlanta fed's projection for gdp now q2 is for flat. you can argue

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dan niles is here he will tell us how he is making money in this environment and where he is puttingt money right now, that is next. maria: welcome back one of the worst weeks of the year for stocks searching inflation take a look at how stocks closed out the week. and how we have been seeing the market relate tank halfway through the year. as you can seat markets are down in the double digits year today by joy to meet right now to talk about investing in this the fund founder dan niles who has been beating the markets for dan great to see a thanks for much for being here this weekend. >> my pleasure maria. the. maria: i want to talk about the fundamentals inflation as we numbers we saw on friday what has happened in the last couple of weeks, dan? how often do see a company like target come out a month ago and tell us their guidance is going to be lower than expected reporting weaker than expected earnings in a couple weeks later come out and cut guidance again. we saw that. do you think this is telling us something about the broader s&p 500? x absolutely. it's very rare to see a com

dan niles today, apple is very expensive he says relative to other names like meta and alphabet do you think the same thing? >> i do. i agree with dan i think apple over the last three years has just done extraordinary and really been a covid beneficiary. i think the knock i always had on apple, tim cook is fantastic, apple hasn't had great earnings growth they've had once again, have a halo effect because it is apple, tim cook is great, but earnings growth for 2023 is only looking to be shy of 7%. so when i look across, it has 23 multiple growing earnings at 7%, can do share buy backs in this market, that's why you'll continue to see pressure on big cap tech names that really don't have that earnings growth that the market is expecting. netflix, disney, facebook, google are all much cheaper from a pe and growing earnings faster, so i think the market will start to distinguish between those as they look to put new money to work in the space. i think apple may be a laggard >> jon, you own apple shares, you own calls. >> uh-huh. >> two questions is this a reason to sell the stock if you

let's get into this tech sell-off, one of the worst performing sectors joining us now, dan niles. you're not on the phone. dan, this is looking today like what you've been predicting for a while, a series of bear market rallies that fade. what are the characteristics here that you're looking at, maybe particularly in tech, to see if your thesis is holding up >> i think nike this morning is a good harbinger of what you can expect during earnings season. so i was looking at it closely if you look at the forward numbers, we had a tweet on it this morning none of the things that they talked about were unknown. they talked about foreign exchange we all know the dollar is up a lot. they talked about china being an issue on the demand side, so, again, not a huge surprise there. we know cities are being locked down and they talked about supply chain costs and freight costs. again, no surprise there what's interesting is this morning the stock was obviously up 3% pretty early, and now it's down about 6%. and so you've seen this sell-off, even though everything that they talked about you kne

back with us now is dan niles. the founder and senior portfolio manager of satori funds.et why is that? >> well, i think you have two things you have to focus on. the first is you don't want to fight the fed. and the fed is going to have to be the most aggressive since the 1970s to get inflation down. you don't want to fight fundamental. you had target come out three weeks after they gave guidance, microsoft, six weeks after they gave out guidance. intel, six weeks after they gave guidance so i think you're going to see q2 earnings be absolutely horrible in terms of the guidance that they're going to give for q3 because you're dealing with slow growth at the same time you're dealing with high inflation affecting their businesses and pe multiples in a high inflation environment contract really sharply, and that's yes th why i think we're still going to be down next year when we're sitting in a recession >> margins have already compressed a lot how low do they go if you're looking at the tech csector, th s&p 500 overall. >> unfortunately, these things go to the upside unfor

joining us is founder, dan niles. it's great to have you the s&p is up. the s&p is up about 13, 14% from its peak that's nothing compared to where you think it will go you're anticipating 30 to 50% sell off from peak to trough next year. what gets it there fed, fundamentals, both? >> it's really both. our rallying cry for this year is don't fight the fed the fed is your enemy for the first time in 13 years deal with inflation and the second part is don't fight the fundamentals where we think we're looking at a u.s. recession next year. ofly obviously we had a negativ gdp. i think we get a recession next year the combination of those things will drive multiples lower as we look at next year. >> dan, how did the tech mega cap fit into your outlook? apple is higher in the current session. where does it go from here do they hold up relatively better >> no, i think it is much worse because right now you're having to worry about something you haven't had to worry about the last 13 years and that's valuation. if you look at the s&p, it's trading at about 18 time

. >> definition of a bear market rally, if you listen to people who come on the air, like dan niles, he's often warned of this i guess as we head into the second half of the year, has anything fundamentally changed i know we have had weakness in commodity prices and some analysts are arguing maybe the stock market has done the job of the fed, that the pessimism has been baked in and spending has been pulled back, that a recession that we may get or are in as some believe will do the job of bringing down inflation >> definitely more downgrades to global growth forecasts. imf cuts their forecast to 2.9 s&p global did the same this morning. we'll talk more about what the year ahead, and especially what 2023 may have in store for us. let's stick with the marbt a lot of focus on who will survive this moment. here is john dohrr talking about the market >> we have too many unicorns for some companies don't deserve and will not get more capital, but the excellent companies will be able to access the capital they need to grow. >> joining us this morning, delano of new street advisers. especia

we have been warned by many, the likes of dan niles, about bear market rallies, as mike santoli was just saying to close that last hour, it's going to be hard to distinguish what's what, but we're going to try >> absolutely. something that a lot of folks are look at is valuations, of course you look at some of the most beaten down names, they're rebounding hard this morning look at amd and nvidia, the chip makers as well as paypal and affirm b of a did this screen that i thought was pretty helpful, looking at how far their valuations have come down on a price to earnings ratio. amd has gone from 50 times pe to 17 times even companies like affirm, where they don't have any earnings, this have gone from 27 times sales to 3 times sales so that's what a lot of folks are looking at this morning, though, we have heard a lot of people, maybe minus jim cramer, still pessimistic. he is finding some optimism, but as mike was saying, maybe you need the s&p at 4,000 as a minimum. >> still, 27 times on nvidia that's not exactly cheap i mean, by the standards - >> cheaper exactly. >> cheaper we're in

that last week the swift national bank also raised interest rates but "sunday morning futures," dan nilesswift national bank raised rates thinking on wall street was it is about to unload and tumble tech stocks on to marketwatch this. >> i think one of the things that hit the stock market, is they sort of backed away from what they said earlier talked about implied going to did he have currency by potentially selling u.s. stocks swift national bank has 177 billion in u.s. stocks, one of the top 50 shareholders in apple, amazon google facebook, so, if you see other, funds looking to defend their currency by selling assets that they own, this is going to be, even bigger problem. >> that would be notable if we saw sovereign wealth funds dumping tech stocks nasdaq down 30% already year-to-date your thoughts. >> you know that is a 40% decline this reminds us that cost of capital for companies is moving sharply higher, given the deep sell-off we had on equity equity side, higher interest rates, corporate bonds you can't help but think that companies are going to be downsiing capital sending thi

maria: dan niles made a great point last week when he was on this show, the reason the markets flippedf swiss national bank, they are thinking that they will start dumping tech stocks and exacerbate this selloff which i thought was a great point. david, good to see you. thank you very much for coming in in a busy morning and certainly busy period. morning movers tesla and twitter are on the move. twitter down 1 and a half percent just under, 1 and a half percent decline. its board unanimously recommended to approve elon musk. the 3 issues stalling the sale. approval and he still wants to neglect about the wrote with thes on twitter. tesla down 2 and a half percent right now. the company is facing a law enforcement from a former employee over mass layoffs at a nevada giga factory. they claim the company violated federal law that requires employers to notify workers 60 days in a advance before shutting down a plant before laying off 50 or more workers at the same site. sounds like europe. quick break, president biden's plans for a scary future. >> we need more money to plan for a second

talk about that with the former president of the kansas city federal reserve, tom hoe anything and dan nilesdemocrats for 100 years in south texas, married to a border agent. we'll get into it with myra flores. she is going to be getting sworn in next week and so we'll talk to her before that. big show and we've got breaking news in about 15 minutes. rachel: maria, a huge show and that's a district that joe biden won by 16 points. so great guest there, got to stay tuned for that interview and the whole show with a great lineup. maria, have a great, great show. maria: thanks so much. rachel: you got it. a wedding surprise for a military couple, the new led we'ds -- newlyweds join us live along with country singer jade ingleson, next. ♪ do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have $100,000 or more of life insurance, you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or l

into things like that the, the, the blue nile dam is, is it connected in any way to, to that sort of a tension? all of these issues are connected because as to dan and if you, if you have recently had changes in government, there was something of a gentleman's agreement with booth president bashir of sudan and minister now of if you hear that sort of a mediated some of these content conflicts on the region, for example, on a fresh actor and also the grand renaissance damn. as you mentioned, with that gentlemen's agreement, gone and not codified in any kind of law and either country or between the countries. it means that there has to be a re negotiation of both of these issues. and of course there are regional am dynamics with egypt playing a big role in opposing the filling of the god damn. and potentially also some at trans national support to local militias and breakaway regional armed actors. so it's a very complicated scenario, but it will require more concerted effort from regional bodies to act. ha ha, thank you very much. need to analysis, appreciate you talk your time. thank you. now, thousands of people in gardeners capital acura have