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thanks so much for being with us always great to hear your insights dan niles, satori fund. >> thank you >>> meantime chip companies like taiwan semi cutting capital as you know amid the semi slowdown. we're watching all of that so many huge stories today >> yes, so many. let's start with the foundry of the world tsmc finally sounding a little cautious though it posted the best profit in two years and beat analysts' expectations benefiting from pricing power and of course the strong u.s. dollar taiwan semiconductors, actually the largest made-to-order chip maker and it's projecting the industry will contract in 2023 that is next year. the company is cutting capital expenditures by roughly 10%. but the weird thing is tsmc doesn't seem as worried about u.s. export restrictions that aim to hamper china's ability to make advanced chips. on the conference call which was really early this morning management said the new rules were, quote, limited and manageable then you also have silicon design firm sinopsys saying the rules won't impact revenue and reaffirmed guidance, the stock is tradin

joining me now satori fund founder portfolio manager dan niles and dan, i want to start with the fed because markets up right now at this very moment and scuttlebut, maybe they slow it down a little bit. i'm not sure if that means on a rhetoric which by the way be a welcome relief, but what are your thoughts about taking the bait yet again, because obviously, the markets want so desperately for the fed to take a back seat. >> you're exactly right, charles. we put out a tweet this morning under daniel t. niles which is my handle saying look, here is an article in the wall street journal from a person they call the fed whisperer, nick timaros, and he basically put out that the fed is going to raise by 75 basis points but there's debate about raising it only 50 in december, and that be very bull ish, because that be the first sign that they are starting to slowdown their rate hikes, and this market, as you put it, people desperately want to believe that we've seen the lows. now, i think this is a low. i think the market can get backup being the s&p 500 back to 3,900 or 4,000, and if you

. >> that's what i wanted to underscore we had dan niles on, who's bearish overall but saying something similar to what you're saying we could see a rally off of earnings based on the way that things have been going what do you think is the most important macro, i guess, benchmarks or news that we should be looking out for that's going to have an impact on these charts and where things go from here, perhaps post december? >> well, i think it's critical to see how the fed reacts to incoming data. we're still lacking a data point that would give them an excuse to layoff a little bit i think piling blindly into the 75 point basis points coming out of being behind the curve and trying to get ahead of it is a dangerous game because they have not yet been able to assess the economic impact of these rate hikes. remember, they're very, very lagging. so there's always the danger that the tail end of this is going to come back to haunt all of us at some point next year. look at inflation friday for example see if there's any relief and maybe they back off a little bit they started chattering a li

waiting >> we'll wait for those big prints tonight and see what it might mean for some megacap tech as dan niles said as we get into next week. for now let's get to the judge and the half >>> all right, carl, thank you very much. and welcome to the halftime report out front funds and interest rates. we discuss and debate that with the investment committee joining me for the hour today. we do have a pretty nice move in the market going on. let's check the markets today. we do have best week since late july for the s&p and the nas the dow is holding on 200 plus the yield on the ten-year note we're going to get to all of that but steve liesman is at the desk that means we have something important and those are the headlines from if philly feds patrick harker >> yeah, he's going to talk about monetary policy saying he expects the funds rate to be well above 4% by the end of the year that is in line where the market is priced. so the fed is going to stop hiking rates some time next year, but when it does it will hold policy at a restrictive rate, let monetary policy do its work says the philly fed pr

there's been violence in c. dan's blue nile state for the reports of at least 150 people killed . it was sparked by rival land claims between the house and berta tribes, and as displaced thousands apiece. steel was signed in the region in 2020, but the fighting is worse and have a bargain. reports from heart to violence is an extension of the violence that broke out last july between the 2 tribes. the house and the birds are over at land issues. the house, the wanted to establish a tribal administration in lieu now state something that the bertha and other tribe in bloom i'll say rejected saying that the house i have no rice land claims in the area. security forces have been deployed also back then they have restricted movement. local authorities have imposed curfew in those 3 localities where violence have broken out. but as of today, the markets in blue now state in the capital of blue. now state them as it has been shot, there are reports of a village as being burned due to the violence and again displacement because of the violence security forces have been deployed, but the v

filled with she loyalists. thousands of people have been displaced by days of violence since she dans blue nile state. fighting between the houser and betty tribes has killed more than 200 and injured many more security forces have now been deployed. 38 people have been rescued from a small boat adrift in the mediterranean sea carrying refugees and migrants. a number of children were among those saved by the rescue ship, ocean, viking weather income. seas have led to a shop increase in crossings. next witness, and a famous filmmakers return to sassy. don't you stay with us now? oh, i i use me. ah, my family story is inseparable from the story of my country. even though i've never really lived there, ah, they moved around a lot and i grew up in exile because of the war. ready with. ready ready ah, my father founded the sudan people's liberation movement. the s p l m in 1983. ready with my mother by his side, he led an armed struggle against an islamic fundamentalist government based in the north of the country. oh, for the self determination of the people in the south and democratic transformati

given what you said about the reversal and given what you've said about some of the banks, we had dan nilesn, he said, he's not long by any means, but he thinks october could be an up month. >> i was shocked at that, and i love dan, he's an old friend, about 30 years this morning, loop capital does the unthinkable. they say it's time to buy micron it's time to get in ahead of the cycle. we have had the prolonged price declines, they've been steep, sharp production in earnings, significant capex cuts, that's when you buy micron. micron is up 10% from when they said, please don't buy us. like sanjay is, like -- my wife said, would you please be nice to him he's one of the nicest people in the world. so i will say this about sanjay. he came on and said, we don't really have a lot of hope here, and loop says, time to buy >> i saw the same thing just timing the inventory cycle on tsm. but you have said you thought semis are vulnerable still >> i still think that the last three weeks has been very bad for them, and i hate to be so granular, but it really is i'm getting week to week, and they're j