dan scott is head of research at credit suisse. dan, always great to see you. you're looking very tan this morning. you must have been on holidays. >> yeah, you bet. it is summer holidays here. we're seeing it a little on volumes, perhaps on volatility and the effect on -- thank you. good to see you. >> we know that tapering is coming, whether it is september or december. do we really care? have the markets adequately priced in the fact that tapering is coming or once we do get hit by it, are we going to be seeing another huge vat of volatility? >> yeah, that's really the question. because i think any rational investor would have to take a step back and think that tapering is a good sign. tapering only comes when we have concrete signs that there is an improvement in the economy that the economy can stand on its own legs and so if the fed comes forward and decides it is ready for tapering, that must be a good sign, must mean they have enough evidence to be able to release the economy and let it run on its own. the thing, however, is when we first heard the init

with the recent setback for bill ackman's in sony's rebuke of dan loeb. >> scott, thanks so much. bill ackman, of course, is once again ruffling feathers in the corporate world, this time leaving to his departure from the board of jcpenney. a company in which he's the largest shoulder and would ostensibly like to have a continuing leadership role. public tussles with companies like that raise questions with whether activism can go too far. despite the public nature of his endeavors, some great win stories, some great losing stories as well. ackman is more the exception than the rule. for one thing, there's his outspokenness. other activists, dan loeb, for example, rely mostly on written communications with companies. you will recall the three hour or four hour herbalife short ackman anounsed. others like larry robbins reject even the title of activist. these managers and many others think it's better to try to place nice and broadly speaking their involvement with yield great results. according to a recent study by harvard law school, in a paper released last month they studied 2,

and from dan scott -- a couple of stories related to the future of the parties and the 2016 election.his is from the hill writing about the 2016 election. "gop fears 2016 free-for-all will help clinton." republicans did meet today in boston with the writing stars -- rising stars discussing a format for potential debates and they are reporting here from the column of "the washington examiner." limbaugh and sean hannity iodized moderators. they are already looking to block cnn and nbc. the plan features on hillary clinton and they are looking to scrap the old model of having reporters and news personnel asking the questions and candidate forums. back to your calls from the democrats line. from jesup, georgia. caller: i think hillary clinton will probably be the nomination that i really like o'malley out of maryland. i really like a lady out of washington, the young 24-year- old black republican. and some lady down in texas, the guy who said he was a democrat and just turned republican, the hispanic, if you check the numbers, he the president won the hispanic vote. i would like to know w

and from dan scott -- a couple of stories related to the future of the parties and the 2016 election. this is from the hill writing about the 2016 election. "gop fears 2016 free-for-all will help clinton." did meet today in boston with the writing stars -- rising stars discussing a format for potential debates and they are reporting here from the column of "the washington examiner." limbaugh and sean hannity iodized moderators. they are already looking to block cnn and nbc. the plan features on hillary clinton and they are looking to scrap the old model of having reporters and news personnel asking the questions and candidate forums. from theour calls democrats line. from jesup, georgia. think hillary clinton will probably be the nomination that i really like o'malley out of maryland. i really like a lady out of , the young 24-year- old black republican. and some lady down in texas, the guy who said he was a democrat and just turned republican, the hispanic, if you check the numbers, he the president won the hispanic vote. i would like to know why the hard toans tried so take the walt

scott? >> i think this trade makes sense for the same reason mike said, probably overdone. now, dan is doing something we talk about low implied volatility stocks, buy outright options, don't have to get cute and use spreads. another thing this is a countertrend trade. the chart says earnings on april 23rd is really ugly. dan is risking a little bit to potentially make a lot. i would not he is tight take a profit if you get a profit in this one. >> agree or disagree, mike? >> no i agree with the trade. this is the time when do you want to use options, when you're making the countertrend trades, if ball is low, that is one of the benefits here, the other factor is names like at&t, especially buy slightly longer call option, pay the big dividend, a tendency for the upside calls to be relatively cheat it is a rate trade, rates move violently, the stock could move with more volatility which you expect which subjects a trade like this can make a lot of sense. >> again it is contrarian here, define your risks. scott made a point, volatility is low, you buy that outright, call, define your

because i don't think this jobs report coupled with what scott and dan -- >> i could believe that. >> -- as far as -- >> which fed guys have been saying there wouldn't be enough data by september. >> that's jim bullard. he doesn't think the fed should be in a hurry to do that. >> the fed has to do a mandate. we know inflation and employment. if you look at both of the level where is we are, inflation is too low and employment is too high. if you think of the data points we have just gotten in the last month, forget about u.s. corporate earnings in q2 which were soft and everybody is waiting for the second half recovery as far as earnings, i think that's put on hold a little bit from the guidance. i don't see how they can taper here with rates where they are. didn't they kind of affect the change they wanted to through the mouthpiece of may and june. >> the question is do they have to follow through on what they said? remember, as you said, they affected the rate structure, affected the whole thing going out, and there's a sense that maybe we're further -- we're closer to where we need

. >> the other thing that strikes me, that dan was talking about, this other governor, scott walker, was just on "morning joe," that guy's running for president. so there's going to be another fairly well-known governor running in the state. >> i would make the argument if you're christie and looking at the field now, there are a lot of folks in the field who look more conservative. if we saw what happened with mccain's victory and romney's victory, everyone on the right split that highly conservative vote. the person who was casting as more moderate swept everyone else. >> the right's going to say, boy, bush 41, dull, bush 43, mccain, romney, all were establishment compromises. >> they've been saying that for years and look what happens. >> at some point, that's going to erupt. >> well, it will erupt. the question is whether they have enough critical mass in the party this time to elect -- to nominate one of their own. >> good news for christie, somebody may run to his left, scott brown. i'm sorry, i was, like, i didn't believe it either. i thought it was a spoof. >> and he floated

dan's side. >> tweet us @cnbc "fast money." we'll give you the results at the end of the show. scottions follows the trader action. >> what do you -- we saw a big one today in hpq. they paid 23 cents. that's their max risk. it also means that their break even is $26.23. they see hpq above that level at that october expiration. that's an opportunity level, that 26, 25 level. that's where hewlett-packard spent most of july and august and they're buying on a dip and seeing it back above that level by october. >> scott, thanks so much. time for pops and drops, the big movers of this day. tyson foods dropping and dropping hard. >> it's down seven percent. bank of america downgraded it. this stock has been acting pretty well all year. it's still well above its 50 day. i think this is dip. i like it. >> home depot. >> they raised their guidance but it was below consensus last week. the stock sold off. a great pop in an ugly market but i think the housing trade or the home improvement trade is slowing down. buy it below 75. >> best buy. >> i think the stock tripled this year but valuation is

dan. negotiations ended at 4-pm today -- partly because of a planned march by union members in oakland. kron 4's scott rates is there live tonight. scott? you can get the latest developments on bart and the strike threat. no matter where you go, with the new kron 4 news app. it is free and available on just about any mobile device; android, apple, blackberry, and kindle. i'm it is another way we are giving you more local news. the kron 4 news app, download it today. ariel castro will die behind bars. the ohio man was sentenced today for holding three women captive in his home - and assaulting and torturing them. but right to the end -- he was defensive, showed no remorse, and even claimed his home had been full of 'harmony.' if anyone had expected ariel castro to seem even a little sorry for his crimes against three young women.they were disappointed. he used his sentencing hearing thursday to argue that he's 'not' a monster. not tom you time"didn't prey on these women.just acted on sexual impulses.my sexual addiction." he blamed his sexual addiction. even the fbi. a right-hand drive".believe they let

dan loeb. and global news cutting its key interest rate. "squawk box" begins right now. >>> -- ross sorkin and scott wapner in for joe kernen.ood to have you here today. a number of interesting stories to talk about today. let's get a quick check on the markets. the u.s. equity futures that the hour, they're barely budged. look and see what happened there. yesterday, we saw some new records. nasdaq at a 13-year high. and the russell 2000 at another all time high. interesting news, the vix, volatile dropped off the planet. at around 11. and so we'll continue to see what happens. we're in august, and some of these numbers will tell you just that. today's economic calendar is light. we have two reports to watch. international trade at 8:30 eastern time. and then at 10:00, the labor department announces job openings and labor turnover survey known as jolt. as for earnings, we have adm and liberty media. they're the names that are reporting quarterly results before the bell. this afternoon, you have disney in focus. we're not through the earnings season yet. here is the big news. amazon founder

dan greenhouse joining us with that topography. >>> simon, an incredible story we're going to tell you about involving the super wealthy and the super powerful at a legendary apartment building, 740 park avenue. our senior analyst scott cohn has the story. scott? >> i guess this pales from the markets. the building is 17th and park avenue. the apartments go for as much as $60 million. these people often need high maintenance. they are investigating unidentified workers in a string of jewelry thefts in may and june. at least $100,000 value of watches and rings are missing. is it entirely possible, tyler, that more jewelry has been stolen but the victims haven't noticed yet? >> i'm not sure this is related to the ones over in europe and elsewhere, but boy, there's been a lot of jewelry stealing. >> i guess that's a hot commodity. >> thank you very much. simon, down to you. >> thank you very much. the health of housing ahead on the show. the ceo of coldwell banker on the impact of rising mortgage rates and where we are now in the housing recovery. also ahead on the program, the power house. today, dallas finds out how much home your money could buy in the big d. >>> as we head out, a big down day in the market. look aga

scott wapner at hq. >> some more on the latest between dan loeb's third point and sony as the back and forth continues.ird point's plan for sony to spin off its entertainment unit. third point had responded with a letter last evening saying it was disappointed but that it intended to explore further options to create value for shareholders. i can tell you that now i'm told according to a source close to third point that the firm is right now taking a wait and see approach, that it remains highly engaged and is keeping all options on the table. that it will not rule out a proxy fight though seems unlikely now given the progress they've made. that being sony, over the past three months and the trajectory they're on in the electronics business and the commitment they've just made to improve the entertainment business. third point i'm told from a source expects sony to lay out a plan shortly to achieve more profitability in the entertainment division and demonstrate progress against that plan by the time of the annual meeting. i'm also told from the source that third point views this whole thing as a big w