dani burger has your morning call. as been under loved according to jeffries, which cites the under ownership. they think that is about to change. of aies says it is in need pasta reset with valuations as high as they are. in the meantime, investors will move into europe. they see the fiscal pursestrings about to open. corporations have moved into deficit spending. that investment spending will help europe escape the fate of japanification so the economy is going to continue to surprise to the upside. manus, nejra. nejra: martin malone of alpha book is still with us. jeffries point to the high valuations in the u.s., and for the s&p 500, that valuation is close to the 2018 meltdown levels. why are investors so comfortable with u.s. valuations at this point? is it because they expect growth to pick up? is it because corporate profits for the fourth quarter are expected to be the trough? martin: a combination of all of those factors. it is simply the outperformance of america. ,merica has a macroeconomic set fiscal set, w

with the details and the chart that matters is bloomberg's dani burger. ni: it continues to move to fresh records, really driven by tech stocks. thecan see a little bit of globe here. china down today, not really matching what the u.s. has done. buying this map, the relative strength index of tech stocks. u.s. benchmark, dominated by the top five stocks. according to morgan stanley, that is more than the tech bubble. the rsi has moved above 80. , that is since last march. we tend to see stocks fall around 3% after they reach such a high level. the question, are valuations going to scare off investors at these levels are -- these levels or are investors going to keep riding these waves? manus: the tech mania. we have not seen this kind of value differential for quite a while. investors are laser focused on the forecast with big u.s. financials. jp morgan, citigroup, wells fargo. chief executives will help clarify whether the low interest rates, geopolitical tensions are enough to end the good times. faang stocks trail the broader market so far this year. th

here's dani burger. to people familiar, everyone from directors to assistants are at risk of losing their jobs at ubs wealth management. ramadi only gave him 60 days to devise a turnaround plan for the unit. we are seeing the effects of that. people familiar told us that up to 20% of jobs are on the line in europe. in asia, they will be reducing different management players. the goal is to book clients and more direct contact with the asset manager and those decisions need to happen quicker. the thought is, reducing the headcount will court costs and lead to quick decisions being made. the restructuring will start with asia and then moved to europe, then the middle east and africa is well. the ultrarich unit is also not in existence, according to people familiar. those clients will be spread out among the other units at ubs. we don't have the exact number. ubs has not released that. we have learned that it looks like about 500 jobs are on the line. manus: thank you very much. to the bond markets. we have

according to schwab's kathy change.hings could soon here with the details is dani burger. s have been doing so well. at the same time, the total return index in the u.s. is at a record high. according to schwab's chief economist, the gains are not likely to continue forever and when they do turn, we will see a liquidity crunch. these investors will get slammed. the managers have always said that they have picked the best but if we companies get anything that looks like a by your sale, it won't matter what you own, you won't be able to exit. this is especially alarming when you consider what the market has done. it all -- it already looks frothy. according to a schwab, now is not the time to purchase triple c's. otherlet us look at the stocks to watch ahead of the morning -- ahead of the open. full year earnings could be down 5% compared to 2018 for this company. that news is painful for investors. the stock is called down 20%. if you say you are going to lose 5% compared to the previous year, that is half. &ake a look at the b systems. on this m&a day. thatresult, keep an e

dani burger is in london. looking at this turbulence which is very market specific in hong kong. juliette: absolutely. we had more bad data coming through today, showing that visitor arrivals were down 36% in the second half of 2019 after we saw a 14% gain in arrivals earlier in the year. this of course as we start to see this really impact the city due to the ongoing protests. frome same time, we heard carrie lam, saying the economic recession in 2020 is expected to be more severe with rising jobless rates and some businesses could shut down after lunar new year. on the positive side, the tourism board is preparing a rebranding campaign. we spoke to the tourism board chairman on bloomberg tv. he says we tournament in hong kong is not canceled and will take place. there has been a little bit of upside in hong kong equity markets as we see the rebound continue across asia today. nejra: juliette saly, thank you. there has been upside in indian equities as well. speaking of data, you are looking at the first esti

here's dani burger. basically anywhere you look, volatility is disappearing, and that's especially true in emerging markets, where implied volatility is the lowest since 2014, and the related historical is charting lower. what i have in the white, flip so you can see how correlated it is with the currencies themselves. we have volatility moving lower and the msci emerging market index charting higher. leading this index are gains in the yuan and they expect to continue as volatility drops. december readings showed stronger growth, as well as a phase one trade deal. if this is any guide, we might continue to see a stronger yua n. manus: thank you very much, tracking the volatility there. lale is the senior fund manager. jra and i.h ne with this trade deal, that has gone through major numbers, $50 billion worth of energy, what could go wrong? what is most likely to go wrong? many people are questioning the enforcement aspect of this. what have you questioned the most? highlighted how you how big the numbers

for that, we go to dani burger in london. ng a bit of a turnaround today from aston martin. a rough trading session on friday after a profit warning which showed the urgency for new funding. seems to have gotten that in the form of lawrence strohl, well known for owning an f1 team that his son drives were. injecting 200 million pounds. aston martin getting some interest from china's group. shares rise by nearly 2.5%. morphosys trading at a record high, up 1%. it signed a pact to develop one of its antibody treatments. that should allow the drug to be designed, developed, commercialized. they will get $750 million as part of the agreement. another huge day of gains for managing. asfriday, it gained as much 35% after one of his leukemia treatment showed an 80% survival rate after 24 months. investors liking the results there. shares gaining 27%, now trading at the highest since last summer. matt: thanks very much for that. coming up on bloomberg television, two great interviews with european drugmakers. the jp morgan health care

dani burger has a breakdown. dani: i need at least one upbeat story for us today. mutual. this is after a court ruling for the insurance provider saying they do not need to reinstate their prior ceo. this came after they let him go after alleged conflict of interest. the former chief executive says he is appealing the ruling. we are seeing old mutual gain almost 5%. elementals is down. this is after the chemical company is saying that trading has been week. they are looking at a challenging market environment. their income is going to come in at $124 million which is lower than expected. og semi conductor also falling today. analysts say there has been so much hype over the chip sector. you have a lot of investors moving into these companies. matt: looking at some of your individual movers. european stocks are broadly moving a little bit lower. not such huge moves. after wall street touched on new highs overnight. this is also as the u.s. says consider chinaot a currency manipulator. let's take a look at what is moving markets. we were talking to an economist befor

here with the details is dani burger.s trying to look into their crystal ball, not an easy task with the unpredictability of the coronavirus. they say it could peak in march during the spring festival travel season, and if that is true, prices are likely to drop around april 25, a specific date from citi. they say the impact will not be as bad as sars. it does not look as severe as it did in the early 2000's, but andism will take a big hit, most vulnerable are thailand, hong kong, and singapore. dani thank you very much burger. let's get the bloomberg first word news. president trump has announced his peace plan for the middle east and says it is a win-win solution, but the palestinians say it is a nonstarter. the two state solution would leave an undivided israel and give a green light for israel to .nnex settlements apple has posted solid results from the holiday season, a rebound in iphone demand. the tech giant reported $92 billion in revenue. for the second quarter apple issued a wider revenue range than usual due to

1.5 hours into trading day, let's check in on your european stock universe -- stock movers with dani burgerni: the biggest mover on the stoxx 600 is qiagen, the bio company. they have had a buyer interested in the company, according from's espn. cspn.m they are seeing shares rise more than three point 5%. now trading at a december hike. to the downside, huge losses from beaver tree, the company that makes a lot of tonics. apparently u.k. customers were not drinking enough gin and tonic over the holiday season there they said there you take -- they're u.k. holiday sales were weak. we are seeing shares now drop the most on record. that is about a 21 and some change percent loss. finally, gains from bae systems. they are buying $2 billion worth of defense assets after a merger between raytheon and utc. because of that merger, they need to spin off some assets in order to get regulatory approval. bae gobbling up about 2 billion of those, saying this will help their technology systems, the ceo talking favorably of those acquisitions, the market taking it well also. now trading at a record high.

let's get to dani burger with the morning call.s call is from zach pandow at goldman, saying investors need to curb their expectations for the next few months. 19 -- the rally at the end of 2019 was on optimism that the trade tensions between the u.s. and china were easing, but now growth for the next few months is fully baked into the picture, and it will be hard for stocks to continue the rally they saw at the end of 2019. one of the most significant shifts in 2020, the growth picture. that's all investors will care about, wanting hard evidence the global economic picture is picking up, versus 2019 when all they needed was a little bit of support for central banks. so a different take, but for now expect markets to look relatively flat. anna: thanks very much. dani burger with the latest from goldman sachs on risk assets. let's take a look at other stocks we are watching ahed of the market open. we talked about ubs at the start of the program, changing the wealth management, dividing the wealth management business into a number o

anna: dani burger with a look at the markets. hit by concerns regarding the virus in asia. theme in public markets and a conversation centering around private markets . gave his thoughts. sell, you have to hold something. for us, we would have to invest in something else whether that was cash or some physical commodity. when we have a portfolio designed for investing, we want to be generally deployed but we want to be invested in a broad range of assets. some may perform well in a slow market. less well butrm we have a diversified portfolio. that is a typical strategy. >> that would include private equity investing. >> yes. think the trend toward private equity is still pretty robust. when we look at expected returns in different asset classes and even risk-adjusted, private equity is still quite robust. equity andca private european and asian private equity -- it is still a decent asset class to be invested in. i continuously ring the alarm important not is to be too invested in liquid assets. we are comfortable with our risk mo

dani burger has it for you. dani: this is the year of gold miners.rica says that last year's mega means there's a lot of assets absorbed by the smaller players. that extra liquidity will drive them to dealmaking. it is something they will have to do given years of underinvestment and the need to replenish reserves. bank of america says these miners have to do it or risk getting left behind. nejra: thank you. our guest is still with us. look to the gold price at the top of the show. we are back to where we were before the killing of cases omani. look at happen in gold and elsewhere if the markets worst fears come to pass in june political risk? kallum: the safe assets, government bonds. any dollar-based assets. these prices usually reflect global risk sentiment. if you become more risk off, imagine you would get strength on the dollar. bond yields start to fall again. what is the worst fear for markets? that the strong parts of the economy, domestic consumption services, starts to turn down with industrial production, with trade. slates --a protracted

here is dani burger. take it away. dani: he had a lot to discuss.ction was a weakening dollar. he says the yield curve will continue to speak in -- steepen. assets are going to leave the u.s.. non-us assets like emerging markets will outperform. some of his other bullish calls, he thinks gold will do better long-term and he sees bitcoin spiking above $50,000. that is double from what it is currently. he says if you are thinking about shorting oil based on its risk of spike, it is not a good time to do this. you and patrick were discussing how the worst-case scenario of oil refinery attack is not priced into the market. good luck thinks it is a possibility. he think it's a -- think that is a bad time to short oil based on that. nejra: lots for us to think about. thank you very much. let's start with the dollar first. are you in the dollar demise camp? patrick: we think the dollar weakens against the other g4 currencies. on valuation grounds. he still have the big twin deficits in the united states. it is not something we hear much about right now. th

dani burger with your very latest on chart that matters. all about the coronavirus and the continuous spread. we have fears among a whole range of issues, from the human impact, the economic reality, hospitality travel and leisure stocks with chinese exposures articulately vulnerable -- particularly vulnerable. our next guest says it european european hotels have been impacted by contagion concerns, as their exposure is not just china, but asia, the pacific, and the region. simon french is our guest host this morning. he is from panmure gordon. we are looking at an escalation in terms of the response mechanism from the united states and the u.k., for example -- u.k. for example, halting flights into china as of saturday. we are seeing this escalation in terms of the travel and leisure business. give me your take on the response mechanism at the moment as it stands with the coronavirus. monique: yes, absolutely. obviously, any impact in terms of travel and flight restrictions have a material impact on what we might see from hotels in terms o

here with the details is dani burger. e details but for this firm, it is slashing 5% to 10% of its workforce this year. it has seen assets flee all of its major funds. that is perhaps the impetus behind it. it has lost 20% of its assets last year. some of the performance faltered. it stands at $185 billion. still large, but it was much bigger. according to spokespeople, it is a difficult time for the asset management industry as a whole, but perhaps the quant factor style has been even more difficult. they had to lease out some of their space in their greenwich, connecticut headquarters last year. when we look at the performance of the major funds, you can see how much trouble they have gotten into. this is more than $2 billion aum fund. it tracks factors like value and momentum. all throughout 2019, it struggled. into was a period september where it looked like it could do better. this is where value rebounded with treasury yields. you can see it falls off again, clocking in at -8% return for 2019. you can see the very be

top individual stock stories, for that we go to dani burger. upside by far, ryanair. saw stronger-than-expected christmas period, and easyjet gaining as well. superdry losing more than a fifth of its value with a weaker holiday period. the sales were so disappointing, it might wipe out entire fiscal year profit for them. european discount retailer also missing estimates for sales growth. morgan stanley says the u.k. market was a disappointment for them but there estimates are change due to better cost controls. anna: boris johnson's brexit legislation has cleared its final hurdle in the house of commons as mark carney opened the door to more stimulus in a speech yesterday. the bank of in glynn governor said the equivalent of 250 basis points of -- bank of england governor said they had the equivalent of 250 basis points of room. do you think mark carney still has room to act, as a parting shot? john: he has one last meeting in about three weeks, and clearly he could vote for a cut or other measures, longer commitments and so on. i think it woul

over an hour and a half into the trading day, let's check with european stock movers with dani burger: big decline today from software -- they had to cut their midterm operating margins are that is sending shares lower by more than 10%. the ceo said they had enough cash for m&a but were big analysts say this is really going to put an intense focus on the company's future earnings. future growth might be hampered by the latest numbers. latest moversthe on the stoxx 600. the software company, satellite company, rather, has been that theor a payout u.s. wanted to give to mobile companies. ses says they would be worth as much as $77 billion. late yesterday the u.s. senate introduced a bill that would create a pot of only $6 billion, so a disappointment for the satellite company. santander -- i know you are all over the story in madrid -- they are one of the biggest gainers, up nearly 4%. there fourth-quarter beat estimates, and they really helped alleviate concerns about their cash levels, their capital levels. they say they will end up in the buffer range of an important cet target. fran

matt: thank you very much, dani burger.il, anne-marie is looking at the options market, what is it telling you? anne-marie: all the price action this morning is really in the options market. you can see calls at the highest since september and the premiums are the most expensive since september to put. investors are paying up to prevent future spikes. and volatility, a key measure in how expense of these options are is the highest since december. down from the gains, but the risk premium is coming back into the market. everyone is worried and it is spooking the market, that is why you see call options spiking. everyone is looking for protection. anna: all these things very much in focus. keep an eye on what is going on in the mining sector. the chip stocks beating estimates. this is bloomberg. ♪ beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond tec

we get to european stock movers with dani burger. dani: the biggest decline or is christian hansen.600. they cut their outlook for organic revenue, but bloomberg intelligence says even that new goal is still too ambitious. the ceo saying in the earnings that it was a mixed starch of the year and they see persistent problems. because the problems are sticking around, we are seeing shares fall by more than seven .5%. on the other side of the leaderboard, the biggest gainer on the stoxx 600 is asm international, the chipmakers having a good quarter. thereasm says fourth-quarter is going to come in stronger than they previously expected. order number 370 million euros, more than 20% then where they saw their midpoint. we are seeing shares skyrocket to a record high. -- jly, jay martens martins. a lot of their look says it is the strength -- they said that food inflation picked up more than they expected, so we are seeing shares rise nearly 6%. bernstein says the one thing to look out for is the fact that their store openings have slowed. that highlights how difficult it is for the retai

here is dani burger. ay the market is under appreciating the risk of tensions whip up again between the u.s. and iran. the latest development did nothing to ease the issues. you have iran backing away from its nuclear agreement and the u.s. adding sanctions. you need to hedge this risk, especially heading into the u.s. election. the u.s. may step up its rhetoric against iran. it is all about the momentum traders. these things tend to revert. anna: thank you very much. just a few minutes from the start of cash equities training -- trading. a couple of stock specifics for you. second-quarter numbers coming out from the recruitment company. strikes in france and the fires in australia and the elections in the u.k.. matt: we also have a stock in frankfurt to watch. hello fresh. was higher than has been expected. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you move homes, you move more than just yourself. that's why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. really? yup. you can transfer your service online

dani burger joins us.se we have seen these stocks trailed the benchmark, their outlook will be crucial as we dig through the numbers from the big bank earnings. it kicks off with jp morgan, citi, and wells fargo. immense pressure considering the low rate environment. a healthier consumer, more borrowing there might offset some of those profits. but these banks, certainly there macro outlook is very important, according to credit suisse. we will listen to see what the executives say on the call. morgan,comes to jp their fixed revenue by far, a big drop off. trading in general will be an interesting figure when it comes to these earnings. consider how volatile the fourth quarter was in markets. trading,encourage more will profits be higher, or does it mean that traders remained on the sideline? citi, my corvette set a goal -- number, andkey whether they hit or or not could there areference if gains or false today. francine: still with us, marcus ashworth from bloomberg opinion, and alberto gallo. also joinin

tom: dani burger with -- francine: dani burger with the stock movers. go to first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: for a second night in iran, mass protests after the government admitted it accidentally shot down a ukrainian jet. thatllows days of denying it had anything to do with the incident. it was near a sensitive note terry site. human error is to blame. of the victim's death the families of the victims will be compensated. fires are devastating huge areas land, theand bush area twice the size of switzerland. pressure is being put on the government of australia. many shortcomings. that is the conclusion of the report of police conduct in hong kong during recent unrest or the investigation finds a lack of communication, no clear guidelines when firing tear gas. the report has not been released, but may be in the next few weeks. in taiwan, the president winning a landslide victory. saying that it shows that people of taiwan reject the call for one country, two systems. formal independence is unlikely. beijing says whatever happens, taiwan is

let's get over to dani burger. weeks we have heard from managers like ubs we say the days of u.s. outperformance are limited. but a new call is taking the opposite approach. valuations will move even higher. this is especially true for developed nations and the u.s. the s&p 500 trailing price-earnings ratio is nearing 20. three big macro reasons, the trade tensions are easing, global central banks are supportive, and we have a better growth outlook, all of which will support higher multiples. anna: thank you very much dani burger with a look at the markets. coming up, china expands its travel restrictions as new cases of the coronavirus emerge, and the death toll continues to climb. we will be live in beijing with the latest and what measures are taken to contain the spread of the virus. and what is the broader context? we heard from the german health minister earlier on. and what impact this is having on the chinese economy. this is bloomberg. ♪ beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast

with the answer and the chart that matters is dani burger. ming off of two high-volume days for the yuan, opening at a 6.93 handle, significantly stronger than where the pboc says it it last fixed rates, so an increasingly popular trade. when we look at the technicals, it has dropped below 30 rsi, putting it in overbought territory, although this may not be a death knell for the yuan. we expect to see a lot of foreign inflows into shares and local bonds, which should be a boon for the yuan as investors cut dollar longs. nejra: dani, lovely chart. we want to bring in jim mccormick from natwest markets. you say here clearly it's not really tied to trade wars or trade angst. run us through your thinking? yousef: there's -- jim: there's two things going on. the exchange rate in china is close to the 95th percentile for the last 25 to 30 years. you have the central bank that is going to opportunistically continue to ease policy, so net-net what should be a weak dollar environment in 2020, we should see the yuan underperform. underperforming, -- nej

with more is dani burger. dani: what an ugly year for hedge funds.ree times the amount in 2018 and 3% of total assets. we knew it would be an ugly year. the underperformance has been stark and harder to justify the high fees. the s&p 500 when you reinvested dividends return to 31%. hedge funds last year, 9.2%. a hard time keeping onto client cash and even fundraising. we saw more closures than openings. a lot of marquee names had to close their funds were completely return shareholder capital. the best-performing strategy last year was equity but they still lost $30 billion. only two strategies out of the many from hedge funds were able to see inflows of $10 billion. that was mortgage-backed securities invent driven strategies. manus: thank you very much. let's get you up to speed with your business flash. annabelle: deutsche bank is zeroing in on how do seep -- a next to discretionary pay across the firm. it comes as a lender prepares to prepare its biggest loss since 2016. they range from no bonuses to minor cuts. restartxpects to production of the

here is dani burger. we areothing major, seeing the stoxx 600 down by about .2%.is might be virus related, we are seeing travel and leisure in europe leading those declines, concerns that the spread of coronavirus might hurt sales as well as economic growth. that is partially why oil is down 1.2%. jet fuel a big concern with the virus impact, and we saw that with the sars epidemic. the year weaker, only seven bids ahead of the ecb decision. it will take a lot to move the euros out of its current tight range. the pound also lower by .1% as the dollar gains. aboutrate cut bets last 50% after stronger data. i want to show you individual stocks moving on virus concerns. it is going to be luxury goods as well as travel. tom? francine? francine: dani burger with some of your main stock movers per let's kick off with monetary policy in europe. earlier we spoke to the swish -- the swiss national bank chairman, thomas jordan, about the minimum us change rate. thomas: we still have a highly valued swiss franc. strengthening,is so for us it is important to maintain our monet

here with the details, dani burger.uge day for tesla in the past 10 days, gaining more than 23%. a lot of this is positively over andits, progress in china, these prices have taken off so quickly that it has been very difficult for analysts to keep up with those prices. , teslasee in the white price really surging. you look at the blue, the 12 ,onth price target for analysts only three of 30 firms that were waiting the company had any of $600ose to the level and beyond. there are still 13 firms that have a sell rating on tesla. another way to look at this is the short interest. the short interest percent of float is in the blue. it has declined, but it is still at about 18 percent shares outstanding the average on the s&p 500 is 2%, so the decline, but still very high. the yellow is the nominal value, so about $14 million of tesla is currently being shorted. that has gained as prices have gained, but still a lot of money on the table shorting tesla. francine: dani burger with the latest on tesla. "bloomberg surveillance

dani burger has the details. dani: it was the best year ever for j.p. best that any bank has seen. this was helped by their fixed income trading, and we expect to the numbers to be stronger given the week 2018 comparable. you would be hard-pressed to find an analyst who expected j.p. morgan to be by $1 billion. citi -- the case is they had for trading. lookedthe reasons this so strong was thanks to a trade deal between the u.s. and china in the fourth quarter that restored confidence in the market. and we had a steepening u.s. yield curve that helped investors dry in investors to their fixed income products. .hese numbers set a high bar bank of america and goldman sachs we get today before the u.s. open followed by morgan stanley on thursday. goldman gets more profit share from fixed than the other banks. that will be important for them. according to bloomberg intelligence, the competitive whether keeper goldman, they are able to return their current market share. for the other job cuts, those will be of interest. the morgan stanley promoted the fewest

here to recap a jampacked week is our dani burger. dani: definitely a lot of drama this week.ast friday, things kicked off at 1:50 a.m. london time, when it was announced the u.s. killed a top iranian military general. that caused both gold and oil prices to spike. as tensions continued to increase, we saw gold move above $1600 an ounce. but we have seen it fall back near to where it started before last week. there are two ways to look at it . perhaps tensions have eased, so that's how investors are trading, or experts are -- more investors are not experts when it comes to diplomatic issues. another remarkable thing that happened in markets this week was that issuers of bonds rushed to the market, concerned that the increasing tensions would mean they could not borrow as cheaply as they had as those tensions boil markets. investors rushed to ig bond funds, absorbing some of that. this week, eight billion dollars was piled into investment-grade bond funds. that's a record, the previous one set in 2014. francine: dani burger with the week that was. we are also getting news out o

bloomberg's dani burger, thanks so much. the u.s. have signed the face one -- phase one trade deal. great to have you with us. we have the details of phase one and immediately we start to question how it's going to be enforced and whether we will actually be able to move on to phase two and there is still the risk of further escalation. is that the takeaway? enda: i think you are right. it does feel like the debate is already moving on. aredly speaking, people saying it is a positive in that it extends the trade truce and is going to be good for sentiment. of course if you're at the other , youf china's checkbook may not get a benefit in the near term. the questions are, how sustainable is the deal and how realistic are those shopping targets for u.s. goods? then again, the question is , do wethe enforcement see extra tariffs being imposed? itve got the u.s. presidential election coming up, and beyond all that, you got phase two. the questions are about negotiations, even when they do begin, how realistic is that any progress will be

in the details of your morning call, dani burger. >> probably the best way to describe how bernstein'sts see the european environment is selectively bullish. they say that macro and micro data is improved there are still a lot of structural risks. they compiled lists of their favorite and least favorite stocks. they laid these out according to their favorite factors, to deal with what they say is a challenging structural environment. the part they point to are perpetually lower yields. they say investors can do well in this environment as earnings improve. they say earnings growth will be 4% over the next 12 months. still, they need to be selective. nejra: thank you so much. charles-henry monchau is still with us. of equity strategy are you implying at the moment? a lot of people are saying that you need to take strategies that late cycle environment. are you looking at other factors that you are wanting to allocate at the moment? charles-henry: we believe we are in almost a rational bubble. we are seeing the repression. the direction market which is up is rational. there are is becaus

we have your morning call with dani burger. who thinks this is the wrong move?ourse -- bes dennis says you may making a mistake. the tensions may be having an impact on earnings but the degree of that is unclear. investors that sell as a that punch reaction tend to lose money. there is someone else taking the other side of that that that makes money and this is especially true with the macro backdrop as it currently is. manus: dani, thank you. do not pull the record too soon. kokou agbo-bloua is with us. do i throw the baby out with the gop political bathwater this morning or do i show stoicism and hold in on my longs? --ou: quoting mike tyson everyone has a plan of they get punched in the face. manus: [laughter] kokou: it is tricky with planning. when you make a decision to sell, it might be too late. the whole argument is about construction. and in this particular case i have to hold with the argument that it is important to focus on the long term and fundamentals. equities are the only game in town given the little yield you get from the fixed income market.

dani burger has the details. >> i have been talking to him for years now and he is one of the more levelheadedegists i tend to talk with. that is why i was really surprised when i got a note in my inbox from him saying to be prepared for chaos over the coming weeks as traders hedge for the threat of the coronavirus. separatet is hard to any signals from what is happening in the bond market. he says the flattening of the yield curve really is not consistent. there is stable economic activity and stock yields are attractive relative to the bond market. pandemic, he says to by the weakness in stocks and cyclicals. manus: thank you very much. gimber from jp morgan asset management is with us. be stoic, hold your water, hold your nose. it? scale do you lump in and look large or do you fade the move over a period of time to a variety of products? hugh: i think for me it is the latter. what we are focused on is whether this has a sustained impact or whether this is a short-term phenomenon. it is only a scenario where economic growth is hit for sustained period of time where you should look for geopol

here with the latest, dani burger. once these fears takeover, most of the asian markets are closed because of the lunar new year ye. it is a clear standout of these agricultural commodities like wheat, coin, soybean, all down when 1% -- wheat, corn, soybean, all down 1%. for the second biggest producer in consumer of corn, if the coronavirus impacts consumption, this is the pain being priced in. and the economy there just got over the african swine flu virus that's what the markets last spring, that that swept the markets last spring. you look at the impact of the trade war. we said it was the lunar new year, so this is really remarkable. the white var -- the white bar are the volumes that we have seen. we have seen volumes as high as 200% for one what a usually are on the market. even his more esoteric markets taking a hit today. francine: thank you so much, dani burger there with the latest agricultural commodities. let's focus on the fed, no change expected from jay powell and the fomc, but foreign policy makers and

we go to dani burger. e coming off the back of two strong volume dates for the yuan, and the opening we have seen so far from the currency seems positive. handle, stronger than where the pboc set its fixing rate. it has been popular, popular carry trade as investors cut their dollar long. looking at technicals, it has dropped below a 30, which means it is overbought. this technical picture might not be a death knell for the currency because we expect this year to see a lot of foreign money move into both bonds in china as well as chinese shares. all of that should be a positive as we continue to see the on short currency strengthen. francine: thank you so much, dani burger. let's focus on emerging markets and wilfried verstraete toby gibb. with a short time we have left, tell us what you worry about most in 2020 it is it part of the region or emerging markets or elsewhere? number one the geopolitical risks, as we have seen in recent days. secondly, i think we are very anxious to see if there will be a chang

nejra: dani burger, thank you so much.e big interviews to look forward to on the final day of the world economic forum. the ceo of volkswagen joins us. we will speak to the german health minister, european stability mechanism managing director, you're a group president, and the governor of the bank of france. all of that live from davos. plus, ecb president christine lagarde joins us for hers firs -- her first interview of the date. don't miss that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> phase one is about breaking down trade barriers. you know, that's a very market oriented approach. we can get those exports in the next year and the year after that. that is a big growth factor for the united states. >> i think it is good we see some degree of dÉtente between the two. it is about time we see some of those nations, you know, at least contain and hopefully rollback. >> do we have a more protections -- for example, in our case, to intellectual property? yes. do we think this is sufficient? no. but is this progress? yes. >> i thi

let us get to the morning call with dani burger. ating specifically on america's wealthiest investors saying they are not going to buy as many stocks as last year. and not because they think they are unattractive but rather a cousin they already own so much. allocation is nearing a record for the top 1% which means they don't have the space to add as much as they did last year. goldman sees this up across the board. allocation is in the 95th percentile and that is part of the reason why their call is for only 3.5%0 is for higher than its current level. be any burger, thank you for the day on goldman sachs. up next, we will bring you some of the stocks on the move this morning including aston martin, a distinctly british company on a distinctly british day. the stocks jump after the investment of a billionaire. and badly needed the money the investors are happy to see the shares gaining, 28%. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european open. 24 minutes into your trading day and we see gains for many of the markets across e

our top stories, the individual movers, let's go to dani burger. today, earnings deep in the season, and one big moves we are m, they beat expectations on the earnings. one of the big headlines is the who will be the first woman running the company, and the chairman is stepping down. volvo, the truck maker, they are seeing a big game, nearly 4.5%. it was at a record high with better-than-expected profits even amid the weaker truck demand in europe and north america. swatch group, one of the more disappointing earnings, losing a 2016d the trading at low. they expect a healthy market but hong kong will be week for them given the protests, and increased competition from smart watches. anna: interesting movers on a day that is broadly negative, some stocks are managing to outperform. the bank of england governor mark carney's final meeting, they are split on whether they will get the first cut 2016. trade is seen as having a 50% chance of a cut today, it is the most divided they have been on a decision under carney. goldman sachs are among the banks ca

dani burger has the details. ve been talking to dennis for years now and he's usually very coolheaded. but i got a note from him saying over the next few weeks, there could be chaos in the markets. this isn't language he typically uses. however, he says any flattening we see in the yield curve don't really reflect the fundamentals. in fact, there's been a stable economic activity. stock yields are also attractive, considering what the treasury market has done. he says fundamentals are still there. you shouldn't extrapolate what's happening in the bond market for growth signals the next few weeks. instead, if there's no pandemic, use it as an opportunity to buy any weakness in stocks and cyclicals. anna: thanks very much. let's check out futures as we head towards the start of the trading week in europe. futures suggesting we'll be weaker at the start of trade. when dissing gear, novo nordisk, but the sector moves dominate. watch travel and leisure and luxury. we ask ourselves whether the virus itself the market is

the morning call with dani burger.erg. ♪ anna: welcome back to the european open. 10 minutes to go until the open of that equity market. the futures will be a bit of a bounce, given the heavy selling of yesterday, investors waiting up the spread of the coronavirus, the tragedy and impact on the economy in china and beyond. the environment is about to get tougher for active managers in europe. that is according to strategists at bernstein. >> probably the best way to describe how bernstein strategists see the environment is they are selectively bullish. they say the macro and micro environment is improving in terms of data. earnings growth in europe is going to improve by 4.4% but they say there are a lot of structural headwinds that will make it difficult for stock pickers. they have laid out the top and bottom stock picks. that is the chart you are looking at. they have screened for their favorite factors in the current environment, dividend yields, value, free cash flow and earnings quality. that gives you a top stoc

here with market reaction is dani burger. : earlier in the asian trading hours, there was a rebound. stocks are up 1.3%. in active trading, european stocks are affected by this are starting to drop. travel and leisure are big ones, if travel takes a hit as the virus spreads especially into the chinese new year. luxury stocks as well. asset thate another takes a hit. according to goldman sachs, what we have seen in the past during the sars epidemic, oil could plunge 3%. this is a bloomberg commodity index, here is the sars outbreak, a 5% decline. goldman says jet fuel might see weakening demand, and that will hurt oil prices. that is where we will see lasting impact come from. burger.: thank you dani up next, we will talk all things tech and regulation. we will have a full focus on the u.s. and china, we have a number of ministers coming to talk about trade. and acus in davos is esg profit sustainability. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: coronovirus concern -- the number of cases tops 440 and spreads to the u.s. and hong kong. th

dani burger is looking at the mna story of 2019. annmarie hordern is focused on the car markets. philippe if the check to -- and another person is covering oil markets. dani: takeaway.com looking like they are preparing to declare victory. this has been five months in the making. half of like more than shareholders say they are willing to accept takeaway.com takeaway.com's bid. with this likely hurdle to be overcome, look for the shares to move. matt: let's get to you on the carmakers peered what should we expect today? annmarie: look out for the entire auto industry, especially the dealers in london. this comes after u.k. data shows that sales have been the worst in three years, so we are still seeing the slump. and new auto registrations are at the lowest levels since 2013 and the reason behind all this was the brexit uncertainty and what that meant for consumer sentiment. on top of that, just a lack of demand for those diesel cars. anna: the whole sector caught up in the bigger macro moves. the geopolitical tensions that are likely to affect the oil stocks. take us to the story

here is dani burger.ers say reached a record, and 12.5% of the new york stock exchange volume was coal options, the second record in a consecutive week. a lot of bets that stocks will rise. hedging barely any according to sundial capital. directly from the research report, they say among everything we follow, this behavior is by far the most troublesome, and should be a worry for anyone buying. matt: thank you very -- anna: thank you very much. foreign a half minutes until the start of equity trading and teachers suggest we will be a little higher. suggest we will be a little higher. china is getting out in front of the coronavirus, which is well-received by the investment community. look out for italian banks and what is going on with chipmakers. we see big buybacks from asml. bloomberg. ♪ sometimes your small screen is your big screen. and with the xfinity stream app, which is free with your service, you can take a spin through on demand shows, or stream live tv. download your dvr'd shows and movies on

bloomberg's dani burger has more from our markets desk in london. walk me through what traders are talking about. dani: it is definitely hard to hedge risk, so there's been a andof creative etf buying derivatives. what we have seen is really an attempt to stabilize. there's an underlying fomo in the markets, but it is a typical pattern we keep seeing where any sort of optimism has been really fragile. it was clear in the european trading day today, when stocks started higher. but as soon as we had carrie lam's press conference saying there would be more restricted travel, european stocks gave up those gains. the u.s. certainly doing better, but that may be has more to do with the expectation for tech earnings. we see the nasdaq, for example, leading gains. investors are trying to reprice what may be dampening demand and growth in consumption. one place that is abundantly clear is in oil markets. have oil following the most in about three months. jet fuel might be a factor with the curtailed traveling. things like palm oil at their lowest since 2008.

francine: dani burger there with some of the charts that we will be looking at this week.us, jane foley from rabobank, and burkhard varnholt from credit suisse. burkhard, any value in emerging markets in 2020? burkhard: absolutely. they still have room to lower rates. if you pick some which are less exposed to these wars, take brazil, for example, which is neither exposed to the trade war nor to what is going on in the middle east, this is a country that is dodging effective reform of the labor market, the pension market, the tech system, which is very high rates still compared to the rest of the world, but declining inflation. all of that creates an attractive opportunity set for investors who are waiting at the pour francine: money into them. -- that will pour money into them. francine: what does it all mean for currencies? jane: i think you've got to be clever. the first effect is the market thinks volatility affecting a.m.. but investors need to look at the markets and all e.m. has different fundamentals. one will be more vulnerable. the turkish lira is vulnerable righ

tom: dani burger, thanks so much. in equities and we'll look at that through the morning. coming up, this is an exceptionally important and serious conversation on canada and the people of canada suffering over that horrific plane crash outside tehran. the deputy prime minister will join us of canada. and we're thrilled she could find time this friday to join us. from the meetings at the world economic forum in davos. stay with us. this it bloomberg. ♪ ♪ i think the chinese government are taking serious measures now and very quick. >> the hospital's and communities are much better prepared compared to the south state. >> this is a challenge that we have been aware. they put measures. a challenge, it is but if there is any country in the world that can deal with this kind of challenge, it must be china. >> it can be really devastating, but this is early days. >> whatever damage to the economy, it will be limited. >> it is an example of why countries need to work together. >> we need to contain it and communicate that i

let's get straight to london with dani burger. u.s. european stocks tracked asia lower. these investors -- one of the concerns is the outbreak and the potential spread of the deadly virus in china. i have been speaking with people who say we need to figure out the scale and magnitude before determining the lasting impact. a lot of luxury stocks in the european index moving lower. we are seeing the yuan weakening the most against the dollar in three months. then we see a bid for havens. gold basically flat, but we see the and and treasuries, investors moving in there. analysts say we could see seven bids lower on u.s. ten-year deals -- 10 year yields. one of the biggest decline is on the stoxx 600 is ubs, down the most in basically a month. francine? tom? tom: thank you so much. in the 16 years i have been here, this is one of the strongest hours we have ever done. stephen schwarzman is scheduled to be here with us later after we hear from the president of the united states. we start strong with ian bremmer of eurasia group. timely, and