good morning, dani burger. dani: super bubble, wild rumpus. there is a lot in store. the bears are in charge. it's not just jeremy grantham. it is individual investors. the most net bearish since 2020. who has the rains? it's those who think this market will turn lower. manus: you have to look at the bond market. there is something a little bit strange in the bond market because i have seen futures rise 10, 15, 30 seconds. yields are rolling down. is it pimco's who are correct? it's coming to fair value. are they correct where he says these bonds, they are just not a haven at all. you can debate the fed puts at any moment. dani: here is your risk look this morning. nasdaq, euro stocks, bitcoin. bitcoin down almost 6%, the lowest since august. it is a big day for risk off. second day in a row. manus: oil crumbles. there is something malevolent in the world. oil dropping. oil rallied away on the back of equities actually declining. now, there is a moment in the oil market, down by 2%. yields roll down. dollar yen, is that your haven? let's talk about japanese tech. juli

i am dani burger.have been watching the drama unfold, novak djokovic in australia and it looks like he might be released from his quarantine covid detention shortly. manus: the judge on this case -- it is a real blow to the government. it looks like novak djokovic has challenged the decision from the australian government to cancel his visa and it looks like he will be released. that is where he spent the last four nights. the number one tennis player and draw but this has drawn such huge political angst in australia because of the quarantines that the people of australia have had to suffer. it blew up despite him saying he had covid a couple of weeks before. there is a great deal of back and forth on this at the moment but at the moment, it looks like .2 novak djokovic. dani: this is something the entire world is grappling with. a microcosm for what everyone is dealing with. from australia, let's turn to europe and there is growing concern about geopolitical risks that russia poses to the continent if

dani burger is here to talk about banks. we know is going on. t because they will go through a tougher time? or it is difficult to compare in the pandemic? dani: part of it is a bit of a recalibration of expectations. the banking sector in the u.s. has been hot this year. one of my favorite statistics was to start the year before earnings season. a third of all cash put into u.s. etf's was banks. banks was a second-best performing sector. now, the bar has been changed. it is lower heading into morgan stanley's results. so strong last year with the pandemic trading. as we have been talking about all this compensation, war on talent, expenses are higher. for morgan stanley, it does have a lot of concentration on wealth and asset management. basically, everybody is paying up to keep their talent. tom: dani burger, thank you. speaking of talent. thank you for the update and preview on banks. coming up, we will speak with the vice chairman of blackrock and former head of the swiss bank. that is philipp hildebrand. we would get his views. stay with us.

dani burger in london. left off in sight. bullard says the fed could hike as soon as march. 10 year yields with their biggest jump. the dollar edges lower. unrest continues in kazakhstan. troops moved to crush dissent in the oil and mineral-rich nation. 6 p.m. a.m. in london. the bond market is grappling with a shift of gears, but is it a redux? the two-year, the short end continues to do the heavy lifting as bullard really for the hawks. dani: the greenspan conundrum is not in full force. and flattening yield curve may rise financial stability risks. those are the words of the fed themselves in their latest fomc minutes. they talk about the issue for lenders, what that does to the financial system. the fomc, the fed, they are worried as well. manus: for those of you who might not be familiar with alan greenspan, if you look at that white line, that was sheer torture in the bond market. they were untelegraphed. 400 basis points in terms of rate hikes. and yet the long end of the curve did not become unseated. therein lies the

i'm dani burger in london with manus cranny into five. the u.k., boris johnson has bought some breathing space for pollen -- by apologizing for attending a party during the first lockdown. his grip on power is precarious. at this point, just how damaged is the prime minister? >> i feel like his position just remains unclear. it seems to be really unclear more so than ever today. he did apologize for that garden party yesterday but he also said it was a work event and didn't realize it was going on here he faced a lot of heckerling in prime minister's questions due to that. he has really doubled down and we've heard other people saying they want him to go. others calling for his resignation. but we don't know is if mps are waiting for the investigation before any massive decisions are made. manus: and johnson through back at the leader of the labour party and said wait for the investigation. he is rambunctious, to say the least in parliament and he is a dispatch box winner. is he now turning into a ballot box risk? >> that is the question

dani burger is in london.ust broken the news that the iraq-turkey pipeline is going to restart in the next hour. that's have a look at the oil price, no doubt about it the oil markets are lit up in terms of the next move. it's hard to find a bear out there in the markets at the moment. dani: so true. here will be my attempt at an elegant segway. the s&p 500, the only two sectors in the green so far are energy and u.s. banks. i want to talk about bank earnings. bank of america and morgan stanley, results both expected today. so far they've been disappointing. goldman shares have tumbled the most in more than 18 months after the firm posted a lackluster fourth-quarter. let's bring in david scanlan. why are expenses soaring? jp morgan, city and does that mean we will see it for the rest of earnings as well? >> quite likely, there has never been a better time to be on wall street than right now. you mentioned goldman sachs, about 33% last year, an astounding number. most of that is just compensation. are they payi

dani burger, my cohort is in london. still ahead, the earnings season . next guest says valuations are likely to come under downward pressure. europe is where you want to be. the earnings gap between the u.s. and europe narrowing. we talked about the value trade, do you lump up in europe and if so, where's the value in europe? rupert: it's not just europe, you can concentrate your bets on one regional market, between the u.k., europe and emerging markets. in terms of earnings growth again -- dani: i was going to say, i'm just curious, if you look at what is done well, if you look at the meme stocks, the bitcoins of the world, would you touch them with the tin put coal, given what you are -- with the 10 foot pole, given what you are discussing? [laughter] manus: he's going to make this hard, aren't you? give me a higher valuation on sterling. you like the ftse market, why do you like it, is it an undervalued play or a currency play? rupert: it's basically an undervalued play. in terms of how cheap it is, the price to earnings share. the valuation is the nu

manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai, i am manus cranny with dani burger in london. it is "daybreak: europe." asian stocks sink after the s&p 500 stages its biggest turnaround since 2008. hiking insight -- aussie yields surge. plus, eastern europe on edge -- the europe puts thousands of troops on alert because of the russia/ukraine crisis. welcome to the sign, a warning shot, it is credit suisse, a material slowdown in the business of wealth management and a provision of 500 million swiss francs. in terms of litigation, they will offset part of that through some of their estate sales. a warning shot on a material slowdown in wealth management. good morning. dani: good morning. this comes off the back of significant changes credit suisse has had to make. we are seeing the impact of that filter through earnings, they say combined with the reduction in their overall risk appetite, to exit that part of the business, they are seeing a loss for the investment bank division. this has been a powerhouse for wall street earnings but not so at credit suisse. manus: the

i am manus cranny alongside dani burger at london hq. fed rate hike surge. powell voiced vigilance, saying he will not let inflation take root. and vice chair clarity resigns two weeks early. plus, the usm or desha thou to continue talking -- plus the u.s. and russia vow to continue talking. we have moved from existential angst to palpable ease. the market is teetering literally on the edge of reality. he was channeling churchill. dani: he really is. it is this precipice of change that he is capturing in this market, saying this is not the end, not even the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning. as you say, channeling churchill. we see some slows in the bond market. manus: we brought this up last week. we wondered whether you had a shot -- shock and you would say on the equity side of the market, there is something strange going on. dani: hey, i always defer to the experts. it is not me saying something strange is going on. it is charlie mick elliott. always really tied in. saying there is a lot of leverage in the system, we are headed f

i'm dani burger. this is "daybreak: europe." five is the magic number.dman boosts its call on fed hikes. they could raise by 50 basis points in march. omicron hits chinese factories in the consumer. stocks and futures start the week mostly higher. plus, sanctions in the spotlight. the u.s. senate has a bill that could penalize russia even if vladimir putin does not invade ukraine. the curve flight nurse are still in this -- the curve flattening or's are still in this morning. that 50 basis point hike could be in the cards. the markets might have priced in two much hawkishness. what does that mean for the dollar concerns in the second half? when it comes to markets, we continue to see a rally. nasdaq, the cash trade on friday, remarkable. we start off with losses. it turned to more than 3% gains. how long will that last or do we sell the risk? euro stoxx playing catch up, up 1.4%. selling in the japanese 10 year, yields at their highest. brent crude continues to march higher, up 1.4%. to the travel sector, where ryanair took a cautious view on a piece of

joining us is our very own dani burger. it is amazing how many equities have done this in the past. : if you want to be the blackstone, they have gone there a while ago, so definitely. that is our region's private equity giant. if you want to feel like a big player, may you have to go public. we did see epb in europe, they are a little smaller than cvc, they have done well and they went puppet -- public. why not join the market? tom: it is not just your regular spat, but it is all about pets. dani: pets do not necessarily make people feel calm. you guys will not know it, but if you guys drive around in the u.s., you go to petsmart for your pets. kkr reportedly is in talks to acquire them through a spac. it is not just something that is pumping off to cool off a bit, but it is also that they have pets exploded during the pandemic. valuations are really high, so they must believe that it can do even better as a public company. francine: i am here for the pets conversation. i also recently got a pet, and when you look at prices, i look into the cheaper one, and you really do not get the

dani burger is in london.ope's largest tech company sap plans to obtain a majority stake in a leading supplier in capital management solutions. let's talk to the sap ceo, he joins us now. you guided on the numbers, you talked about accelerating cloud revenue in 2022. where is the strongest growth in the cloud? is it incorporate, hq, or the evolution of work from home? what is driving the cloud narrative? >> first of all, the last quarter, we've seen double-digit growth in each product category. we see also when it comes to new pricing models, and supply chain disruption. this is what our portfolio provides. dani: you mention supply chain i can help but notice your tipping your hat for taulia. are you expecting or attempting to grow even more in the space after this acquisition? i know you've already announced one, but could we expect more in this area from sap? >> 2021 has shown that we are growing organically. this is what we did in 2021 and then again, organically. we are also searching the market, and tauli

let's get some of the individual corporate stories that dani burger is watching. at is in focus for you? what is of interest? dani: kicking things off with a bit of activist investor action. we have had a lot of this over the past month or so, activist investors getting impatient waiting for returns. vodafone the latest target, according to sources familiar. a great scoop from our bloomberg team. they have already begun talks with vodafone to improve the profitability of the shares, up 3%. to the down stair come -- to the downside, we have ryanair. they disappointed a bit last quarter due to omicron. ryanair also trying to stay competitive. they are slashing prices for airlines. i spoke with the cfo who said they are well hedged. investors sending stocks lower. because of the common stability that francine lacqua' presence ands italy has inspired, we see italian stocks rally. that is not just because francine is there, but the italian election. we have status quo with the prime minister and president sticking there. those politically sensitive sectors like banks ou

tom: dani burger's conversation with deutsche bank ceo.e are going to get the details around this with the ceo, christian sewing, come march. the market levels remain high. francine: we are on the fact that they are struggling to get upfront. how long deutsche bank has come in the last 12 to 14 months. there were always negative news around deutsche bank, and that certainly evokes strategies around the legacy issues in the past. tom: we also talk about credit suisse when they talk about deutsche bank. let us bring in norman villamin, chief investment officer at union bancaire privee. let us get your views of the sector as the markets price in rate hikes for 2022. do you buy into finance banks at this stage? is there an opportunity? norman: we are holding banks right now. we think the banks in the u.s. have priced the cycle reasonably well. on the european side, the markets have not really priced the ecb to move on a meaningful basis yet, there are's -- is still a catalyst for the european banks to move on that motion in the coming months a

dani burger at london hq. they break europe with stories that set the agenda. the chorus for fed hikes grows. text tanks. -- tech tanks. korea tightens the five-year jgb yields the highest level since japan launched negative rates. commodity traders at goldman post the best year in a decade. jp morgan, citi, wells fargo kick off the wall street earnings. a chorus line of hike ability is growing. going from three to five rate hikes. there's a big line this morning from the dr. doom of old. in order to turn this market around, you need more inflationary attitude. you cannot just raise interest rates bit by bit. how do you shock a bond market? dani: advocating for the handbrake you turn, which many participants fear, but if we are pricing in five rate hikes, physical conditions are still so loose, at what point -- how much balance sheet reduction do you need to actually tighten conditions? manus: what is the goldilocks scenario? what is the scenario that does not drive you into recession? that does not deliver the aggressive taper tantrum? dani: i also have to poi

thank you, dani burger, on unilever drawing a redlined around not pursuing that deal.haron bell is still with us. thank you for sitting patiently. what does it tell you, not the specifics of this deal, but around the firepower corporates have to pursue acquisitions? is that stilley theme we see playing out through 2022 or does a higher interest rate make that more constraining? sharon: i absolutely think it will be a big theme this year. bigger than last year. last year, you saw a pickup in m&a. now, companies are even better another balance sheets. they have built up a war chest. many companies have large amounts of cash. i think they get that because they have been quite risk-averse in this last year or two with the pandemic. they have built up cash flows. they have been better than expected. growth has picked up. the v-shaped recovery. borrowing costs are also very low. even with interest rates rising, borrowing costs are relatively inexpensive. pretty strong balance sheets in general. i think you will see more m&a this year. francine: is it, and day -- m&a that you

i am dani burger in london with manus cranny in dubai. the metals market is heating up. a tear this morning. nickel reaching $24,000 a ton. we have supply snarls and china's more easy monetary policy coming into the fore. manus: those cuts coming through for the banks. when it comes to the iron ore market, preemptive strike really in these rate cuts. blast furnace production in china will drop by about 55% in february and march so a bit of a squeeze on the markets in terms of the supply. president biden has accused republicans of forcing him to scale back his agenda as he marks his first year in office at the press conference in the white house. what does breaking up build back better really mean? derek wallbank, economic agenda has stalled, his ratings are imploding. how difficult is this to the economic agenda for the united states if build back better is broken up? derek: manus, i think there has been some thought that build the back better was not going to get through in its present induration. i am not sure that anybody was holding their breath in terms of their eco

dani burger alongside me. it is daybreak europe. the great rotation takes hold.nvestors flock to value overgrowth in the fastest pace since 1995. china and u.s. tech stumble. opec holds the line, adding 400,000 barrels a day. demand is expected to whether the omicron. omicron drives will record virus cases. the government says they can whether the search. good morning. 7:00 a.m. in frankfurt. it is not just a great resignation, dani burger, it is the great rotation at the fastest pace since 1995. this is ripping it out of growth and plowing it into value. good morning. the best theme since 1995. i was trading commodities terribly in 1995. good morning. dani: were you in london in those days? manus: i was. dani: that is where the magic was happening. really driven by that curve steepening. it was also being led by the long end. this is my question for you. is it overdone? is it all technical? is it traders adjusting for this delusion of corporate issuance we are getting? how sticky will this really be? manus: you've leaned into the supply side of the narrative whi

i am manus cranny, dani burger alongside me in london. these are your stories to set the agenda. the u.s. has ordered citizens and family members to leave ukraine as attentions -- as attentions continue. -- tensions continue. the fomc will be more aggressive than expected. yields climb and u.s. futures advance. plus, the crypto crunch continues. bitcoin drops 50%. a very good morning. we are waiting for phillips to give us their numbers, and they are in across the screen. fourth quarter at 13.1%. this is a squeeze, they warned the market a couple of weeks ago in terms of sales, revisions, chips. the estimate was 15.5%. what else have we got on phillips? dani: we have a dividend per share at 85 euros. fourth quarter net income 157 million euros. it is also a recall over sleep apnea machines as well. as you said, they warned against, and it means higher provisions as well. missing estimates. they tried to adjust the estimates. we will get more in a little bit. we have the phillips ceo to join us to talk about the results. manus: we will see how the crisis comes to bear. we have to

let's check in on some of the stocks on the move with dani burger. what are you looking at?> i'm first looking at wizz air. this one has been very volatile when it comes to its action this morning. right at the open, wizz air fell more than 1% after their earnings. they projected some difficulty still going into march considering that there is some uncertainty about when people are going to be happy and comfortable getting back on flights. we are seeing value type stocks turnaround in general. might be benefiting from that travel and leisure as you pointed out. vestas wind system down 1% giving their guidance for the full year. that range missing estimates. the estimate was for 16.6 billion euros. low-end was 15 billion euros. citing the continue the supply chain crunch and higher cost. finally, tod's. luxury goods still going strong. up 8.9%. everybody wants to buy watches, shoes, leather bags. citi pointing out this is a confirmation of their strategy of improving their merchandising, continuing to take effect. tom: on all things, the corporate scum of the stocks we are wa

dani burger in bloomberg hq. treasury yields surge with the two-year topping 1% since early -- for the first time since early 2020. a drone strike on abu dhabi sparks tensions. crisis planning. finance ministers meet in brussels on how to tackle challenges of energy and russia. and our the bond markets really under siege? is this the foothill of a taper tantrum at the 2013? state street have warned this is the fed fighting the ghosts of inflation, which will fly away in 2022. good morning. dani: good morning. it comes during the fed blackout period. there has been the run on the bank many had feared. we love a nice round number. the two-year the highest since february 2020. nearly 15 basis points on the front end of the curve in just two days. manus: higher and higher. this is your two year yield up over 2%. the short end of the curve has a frisky, risky move. the question is what happens next with balance sheet reductions? by the way, we run a risk of shock. that is when the wheels come off the bus. >> the dread

here with the very latest is dani burger. he is not having a fun time at all, alan jope.n he pulled out, the share price went flying. now activist investors are coming in. >> it does not inspire confidence, at least for alan jope, when you have activist investors stepping in. you have a disgruntled investor based. they sent share price is higher when the activist doesn't step in and the deal fails. -- activist does step in and the deal fails. it is going to be harder for alan jope to push his vision. his days are going to be harder whether they are numbered or not. the temperature of debate around unilever looks set to rise by several notches. tom: do we know how alan jope is going to respond? what it means for how he's going to adjust to this? >> his strategy had been one of aggressive acquisitions. something he built over a few months. switching to the u.k. list. that has been something he has advocated for. will he be able to do that with an activist investor here? it will be more difficult given jeffries analysts talk about breaking up unilever. this is very different

we could not be more delighted to have dani burger joining us. hat a different set of numbers that we should be looking at? dani: it is likely the same pain points for goldman that it has been for the others. it is a macro story that has been difficult for banks. we have had trading on wall street that has boomed, but they still missed estimates. the issue here is the boom is fading at the same time when costs are going up. i brought a chart with me. i did not come empty-handed. i'm always going to bring a chart with me. happy belated christmas. we saw jp morgan's revenue continue to push higher, but expenses also grew. they totaled about 70 $7 billion. francine: the chart is coming. dani: perfect. goldman is set to give a one-time payout of $1 million plus two its partners each, so expenses are hugely in focus. tom: investments in technology. francine: that is exciting. tom: i think it is interesting. dani: absolutely is. tom: but we are going to move on from that. loan growth. is that the upside? dani: we have chosen the complete opposite of the

i'm dani burger with manus cranny. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe.at you need to know. hawks out in full force. fed minutes signal more aggressive rate hikes than expected. the treasury route picks up steam, stocks and futures drop as tech sells off. plus, bund yields make a break for zero. german inflation may give further clues. what an exciting market day. it was the fed minutes that really shook assets. we saw a real yields in the past four days jump 20 basis points, the fastest pace we've seen. those rates move toward zero. we remember the big market event in march of 2020. our last guest saying that the fear here is a step change in these real rates. manus: absolutely. the conversation we just had with fidelity is not about the trajectory of what we've done in the past couple of days, as you pointed out. it's about where we are in five years, where are real rates in five years? infidelities view, they go to positive. if the fed wanted to re-grasp the higher ground and narrative and control the inflation or say, we are trying to get there, we ar

i'm dani burger with manus cranny. this is bloomberg daybreak europe. here's what you need to know.owell almost certainly signaling a march hike. how big? raising the stakes. president biden weighing sanctions against vladimir putin if russia invades ukraine. germany six an exemption for energy. big tack clause back losses. a rebound. everyone sitting around waiting for the fed but the set up for the fed decision in these markets is fascinating. you have a move to neutral and bond markets. jp market positioning equities. deutsche bank pointing out that we are underweight on equity market positioning since november 2020. manus: the shorts ran for the hills as far as jp morgan was concerned. there was a cleansing of the short as they put it. as i put it to you, the primary deal is gorged on bonds. they couldn't get enough. that says to me that the bond market is more fearful of recession risk and that's what goldman is warning of. what does that due to the equities story? is a 10% drawdown already priced in on the growth side? dani: i do have to wonder, to what degree was this just pr

i'm dani burger.hina's economic growth slowed last quarter as consumer spending took a dive, giving the central bank cost to cut its key rate for the first time in two years. enda curran gives us an update from hong kong. enda: china's central bank cut two key interest rates today in a clear sign that authorities are both concerned about the depth of the slowdown in the economy and that they are now ready to add more support to ensure growth gets back on track to the pboc took that decision at that same time we got numbers showing retail sales in december continue to slide. that seems to reflect the ongoing outbreaks of covid across china, which necessary -- necessitates an aggressive response by policymakers to control the spread of the virus. on the flipside, there is a divide going on with manufacturing so strong and consumers remaining weak. the bigger story is china's economy is china's economy starting the new year on a wak -- weak footing. dani: undercurrent there with the dated him. joining us

my cohost in london is dani burger. guy johnson is still off today. it is a holiday in the u.k.t is a new year. it steals -- it feels very similar. we did have interesting price action right out of the gate, a buy the dip kind of scenario. dani: sometimes it is hard to read into that, especially on the first trading day of the year. it is definitely the same story, but will that affect stocks at some point? we are getting some of the first data of pmi's in europe of how omicron is affecting the economy. i should say just moments ago, u.s. construction spending coming out for november, and it is disappointing. keep in mind, this is also before omicron is likely to hit, coming in at 0.4%. the estimate had been 0.6%. those are month over month figures. perhaps it is more of a supply issue, but could deck it works as omicron starts to bite? alix: i feel like that is going to windup leading the equity market. how much will omicron matter for assets in the new year? here to help us answer that, michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent, and eddie van de

david: the vice dean of the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health speaking to dani burger.y the founder of bloomberg lp and bloomberg philanthropies. let's pivot now to the upcoming winter games in beijing and experts are warning athletes who are worried about internet -- while china may want to leave their phones back at home for more on these growing concerns, let's bring in our bloomberg cybersecurity reporter, jamie, to talk us through the rationale and the logic and the reason behind why the advisors say to leave phones at home and it's not just a focus on sport, is it? jamie: it's a question of personal data and how valuable that is to both the athlete and to anyone who might be able to get a hold of it. one of the reasons that people are being advised to leave their personal devices at home is that if you connect to the personal device to a network that is being monitored, it leaves open the possibility that everything about your medical to your training or your coaching information can be seen. if the athlete is someone who is high-profile and political, has politic