i'm dani burger in london.hen it comes to chinese equities there has ban lot of pain over the past year, at one point at the dearth of the selloff. is the bottom in? from last week's bottom we have seen hong kong rise some 18% as president xi talks about supporting more platform companies our guest still with us. is the bottom in when it comes to chinese stocks? >> i would tend to think so. from a position of underweight chinese equities. there is you know, a move on our side to become neutral here this year. so we are becoming more interested in the evaluationor chides stocks. the future of chinese stocks, very much depends on what the chinese authority will do both on a monetary and fiscal side but also on the -- side. i think part of relief last week was related to the fact that from a regulatory point of view the chinese -- they will be more lenient with the chinese companies but we are a little bit worried about the global environment. we think that there are also probably good opportunities in the u.s. se

i am manus cranny in dubai and dani burger is along side me in london. e jp morgan strategist saying that some markets are overpricing the chances of recession. meanwhile you have goldman seeing risk assets remaining flat. dani: we are all excited you're going to stick around for longer. at the same time we have elon musk telling us that the u.s. economy is probably in recession which will likely last up to 18 months and that is after all of that, we have the fed president of philadelphia saying that they are too slow of reacting to inflation. we speak with our guest, wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist at northern trust asset management. your macro review is not changed, so what are all of these doomsters getting wrong? wouter: this environment is a tricky one to navigate, and we all agree that growth is slowing down. will it slip so far into recession that we're going to end up in this new macro environment that will drive market to lower levels than we are today? that is where we see they are a bit too doomy. we think the markets are fairly

dani burger in london.di aramco posted its highest profit, the world's most valuable company saw a boost from surging oil prices in the wake of the russian invasion of ukraine. the dividend did not rise, did they just get away with it? >> good morning, manus. as you say, aramco benefited hugely from the oil market in the first quarter. and the huge swell in oil demand plus the invasion of ukraine creating worries about supplies, oil traded above $100 a barrel, a key number four aramco and the state as well. the royalty that around co-pays to the government rises from around 45% to 80%. so the government still makes a huge additional amount of money for any oil prices over $100 a barrel. that is what we saw a lot of through the first quarter. dani: the saudi's have said the run-up in prices is because of a fall in investment. this brings up a question around oil majors posting these profits, can it really continue as we start to contemplate the risks of recession? >> i think that's a risk that the saudis are

this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: it's "bloomberg daybreak: europe", i'm manus cranny in dubai alongside dani burgerndon. dani: no to 75, the fed hikes 50 basis points. jay powell says a jumbo move is not on the cards. u.s. stocks pose their biggest post fed day gain in a decade. bank of england is up next. crude steadies after yesterday's gain on the eu banning russian oil. it is a reappraisal in this market. it's not dovish to hike 50 basis points, but a dovish move in this market. manus: absolutely, the biggest hike in rates since 2000. the stock market loved it, it was quite literally euphoric. i want to show you the bond market. the long end of the curve does not believe that that has got hold of inflation. -- the fed has got hold of inflation. jumbo rate were taken off the table. 10-year futures down this morning. you are looking at the long end, the 30 paper in futures, prices decline, yields rising slightly higher. crude up after a 5% rally on the eu banning russian group. jamie dimon says you could have a long enduring war. $30 of risk premium is not in there. and the dollar steadies again.

denny been -- dani burger in london. bank of england issued the gloomiest outlook of a central bank this year, as it raised its key rate. andrew bailey is warning britain to brace for double-digit inflation and prolonged fury -- prolonged period of stagflation. >> i would integrate with the statement that is higher inflation, we think of the work in terms of the cure is going to be done -- we are experiencing a historically large shop to real incomes in this country coming from outside the country in terms of freight shop, import process, dominantly energy, food and some core goods. high inflation fuels high inflation, it doesn't as standard to mayan shock. -- in a standard demand shock. it is a real income push those the thing we think will do a lot of work to lower inflation. here's the complication, there are risks the other way. one of the big risks is labor, without a tight labor market in this country. it is a good story in many ways, we've come through covid, we had predictions we were going to have a rise in unem

dani burger in london. national security advisor jake sullivan says he would not be surprised if president biden and xi jinping speak in the coming weeks. it comes as the u.s. leader makes his way to south korea for the first leg of the asian tour. joining us is our east asia government editor, john, why is biden starting the trip with a visit to the samsung semiconductor complex? it's the personification of global angst, isn't it? >> yet, and he is choosing this because it fits into the agenda of his administration in terms of supply chain initiatives. and getting more chips to industries to ease the crunch. biden has been pushing the china competition bill, it is a $52 billion bill which includes the semiconductor industry. samsung is responsible for about a third of global memory chip production. the new president in south korea , this puts the new president on the same track with joe biden, and they are working with one of the most crucial producers of these chips. dani: this is on the background of the

i am manus cranny in dubai, dani burger in london. the first word news headlines from around the world with juliette saly. juliette: the u.s. has rejected a plan by russian president vladimir putin to facilitate grain and fertilizer exports until the extensions on his country are lifted. the biden administration has blamed the kremlin, with surging concerns of global food shortages. potent did not specify whether he was referring to russian exports or those from ukraine that have been stopped by moscow's blockade. the u.s. and taiwan are ready to announce talks that would deepen economic ties, a move that is likely to be seen as a fresh osha beijing. bloomberg understands negotiations with focus on economic cooperation and securing supply chains. the agreement would be so much of the indo pacific economic framework. it would fall short of a free-trade agreement. beijing's month along covid outbreak is worsening, with 29 new cases recorded thursday, there is growing excited within china' governments about the impact of its covid zero p

with more is dani burger. dani: i'm looking at this positioning heading into the meeting.t is real money versus fast money, asset managers versus hedge funds. hedge funds have been growing their short positions, part of the fuel behind the selloff. asset managers have their long position, many of them have mandates to hold something when it comes the bond market. but the spread between these two have reached the most extreme level since 2020. considering today's decision, one of these groups could get burnt. hedge funds have the discretion to act much quicker, so you could see some short covering move the market. we had the rba decision which did its part to push yields higher, so how will be global market react. we are already seeing german bund yields back above 1%, u.k. 2-year yield's just under 2%. francine: the chart of the hour, up the week, dani burger with what we could see from that that. still with this is paul donovan, ubs chief economist, it's great to talk about inflation. this underpins everything that happens on the markets. when writing in saying copy in lo

we are joined by dani burger. dani, we had a lot of people saying i don't know when it will happen.ffin said it is like looking into a murky crystal ball. what are we looking at when we look at the s&p 500? dani: i do feel like the general sentiment is pessimistic. a lot of people are not willing to put an exact number on it, but we have our mliv poll survey. when it is aggregated, a little more anonymous, people are willing to give a more exact number. the median of the survey, it was around 3500. that would imply another 10% drop from friday's levels . indeed, only 4% of respondents to the survey believed we have hit the bottom. you heard a little of it in that. tape we just played a few people think we will go back to pre-pandemic levels. there are definitely concerns of the tail risk, and it is this mantra of don't fight the fed. they are tightening conditions, and a lot of that concerns stock markets falling as well. we are also asking them about the economy. on that point, they did list a few different things. that could get the economy back on stable foot. we have the fed end

dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. the stories that set your agenda -- manus: stop/as its profit forecast, but -- snap slashes its forecast, but jamie dimon says storm clouds they dissipate. >> i'm calling the storm clouds because they are storm clouds and they may dissipate. if it was a hurricane, i would tell you that, like we had in 2007 or 2008. they may not dissipate, we are not wishful singles -- wishful thinkers. manus: hike first, ask questions later, raphael bostic says a pause may be needed after two more half-point increases. georgia says get to 2% and then reflect. plus, christine lagarde's plan to tighten burke's colleagues -- itks colleagues, wanting to move faster. our conversation with the ecb president later this morning. spend, spend, spend. samsung will play out the dollar. on chips and biotech over the next five years. they are to boost the investment in tech by 36%. these are major commitments to overcome the chip shortage by samsung. dani: this kind of goes into what i was thinking about this mor

dani burger is in london. this is "daybreak: europe." there is a deal, a 10 year cargo partnership. the real driver supporting some of these airlines through covid. this is interesting, on the supply chain issues with the new deal in air cargo partnership. dani: ben smith saying it was a landmark step to boost their position in air cargo. a 9% stake would make them roughly the fourth biggest shareholder. manus: one of the biggest rallies in the yuan 24 hours ago. all lower onshore and offshore. you're seeing the dollar rise and the yen drop. you sell the new beginning to fight back from the bank of england and from the ecb overnight in terms of the narrative about jumbo rate hikes. loading up on cash the most since 9/11. that's a very big decision. dani: maybe it's getting even bigger this morning. futures selloff across the u.s. space not to severely. it does come off a rally yesterday or u.s. stocks rallied more than 2%. but it gets back to the thing of bear market bounces. do you really want to buy these dips, because with the direction of travel lower, jay powell yesterday sayin

dani burger is not interested in buying any metaverse land, what about you? tom: i saw the trailer for this new land, it is very trippy. it is worth looking at and pulling up on youtube or their website, but this is quite a phenomenon. at a time when crypto is more broadly pretty soggy. let's get into key market drivers with his cleanup you know --with kristine aquino. a reminder that when it comes to the rhetoric from xi jinping, flowering when it comes to the economy with stepping up support, but the economic data pointing to the constraints. and whether this rhetoric from officials is really going to be enough to address the significant concerns amid these lockdowns. kristine: and this is a real test of how far this rhetoric will go. the economic data bearing out the impact of lockdowns so far. we have spoken about china entering a phase where it needs to keep supporting markets, whether through verbal assurances like last week from the authorities. or actual concrete action to keep investor sentiment up. in the era of easy monetary policy, it is a cycle o

i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny into by. the stories that set your agenda. >> survival at stake. george soros warns russia's invasion of ukraine could lead to world war iii. in the end of civilization as we know it. >> we have the beginning of the third world war and our civilization may not survive it. manus: poxon frankfurt. -- hocks -- hawks in frankfurt. >> i believe gradualism is the way to go as long as inflation expectations are well and good. if we were in a situation where we anticipate d anchoring, or if we had a surge in demand, that is a different story. manus: plus, the hike in new zealand. the rv said raises rates by half a percentage point again and signals more to come to tame inflation. good morning. you have an expeditious fed. you have an ecb not panicking. you have the rbnz wanting to be ahead of the curve. dani: all of that coming with the hard and soft data starting to turn over. abysmal home sales, the worst in nine years. we are seeing a repricing of not just the fed, but also of risk. let me walk you

dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london. economic havoc.na's factory and services activity plunges amid lockdowns as president xi try to support growth. germany says it could reduce reliance on russian oil by late summer. hungry vows to veto any eu sanctions on the nation's energy. plus, warren buffett undertakes his biggest shopping spree in at least a decade, $41 billion in company stakes. warren buffett might be buying, but plenty of you are selling. an ugly month and ugly week last week, and here is what is waiting in the markets. financial conditions are the tightest since 2018, save for the pandemic. i was just talking with our guest about this. her thesis was essentially, we are nearing peak hawkish and is. if we are in a scenario where financial conditions are the tightest since 2018, which is when the fed previously stopped is tightening cycle, perhaps we have priced the full is -- full extent and we see some of the pain ending in markets. let's get into these markets and get a check on the cross asset picture. dollar continues to

dani burger is out on holiday, so they left me to take over the reins. i will try not to break anything. we are seeing a little bit of a break in equity futures at the moment on the s&p 500. a similar story for the euro stoxx futures. basically china easing curves. stock bonds have seen the biggest inflows with buyers coming back. they talk about a quadruple remy of rising discount rates, key club location -- key globalization points, and crowding with the muscle memory of making a dip buy needing to fade. i want to get to important metrics as we look to the rest of the day. u.s. treasury futures the story where we are on course for the first month gains since october. a little bit of upside with the dollar fading dust at thaad. brent crude getting past $120 a barrel. we are on course for a six monthly gain on tuesday, the best run in more than a decade with these additional eu curbs around the corner. one more board on lithium and nickel. those are some of the battery metals. goldman sachs is saying a new bull market might start in the second half of th

dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in b.i.. here are the stories that set your agenda. manus: in the bear trap. u.s. futures jump as the bear market close. but beijing sour sentiment in asia. a new prime minister in asia -- in australia taking the r eins. plus, the world economic forum in davos kicks off. an outstanding list of interviews. the dabo's elite are arriving, the addenda will be set, genda. -- ukraine will top the addenda. dani: the question as to where -- whether the bottom is in or not, sentiment says the bottom is not in. we briefly touched their market, kissed it, but did not embrace it, down 19% from the peak. we are moving higher today. perhaps someone believes we are not having -- after ending the day flat, s&p 500 futures and nasdaq futures moving nearly a percent higher, and nasdaq trading at the lowest since november 2020, the s&p 500 has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, longest losing streak since 2001. european stocks following the trend higher, but the flight in the ointment is china come on down mor

i'm dani burger. traders gear up for the central bank's biggest hike in two decades.ines, the e.u. plans to issue more details for vladimir putin's gas for rubles