daniel franklin, editor of the economist magazine's world in 2012 special edition. welcome. so, ian, you do this kind of thing for a living. let's first start with something simple like iran. is the united states or israel going to attack iran in 2012? >> absolutely not. i can't see the united states doing it. keep in mind, it's still obama no matter what happens with the elections in 2012 at least for the purposes of that year. and the israelis are highly incented to convince everyone that an attack it could come if they aren't satisfied. if it's going to come it will come from the u.s. the two sides aren't coming together. sanctions will clearly escalate. there's a lot of internal pressure within iran. when you have a potential assassination against the saudi ambassador to washington, the british embassy being occupied, that's telling you there's a lot of internal instability at the top of the iranian regime. there's risk takers and folks that don't like us but much more pragmatic. that plays out potentially in dangerous ways in 2012. that's very different from saying we'r