danny blanchflower of dartmouth. and barry bannister.is a tear up up theit is a tear script moment. you are the labor market expert. it is not a very high correlation, but that is a pretty high number. 2.27%, last time we got the adp number was pretty high. last month was actually a drop. there are obviously two parts to the data. there is the household part and the establishment survey. the establishment survey was strong with nonfarm payrolls, but there was a rise in the unemployment rate. we will see if there is a simple read. the one read i would take, look at the wage growth series, look at it for non-products and -- nonproduction and supervisory. that is the take home, that is the pay packet people get to take home. that is rising at 2.1%. i think we are kind of trundling along. we will see if there is big positive news, that is absolutely going to lock in things going forward the next month or so. we will see. my suspicion is that there is still lots of slack in the labor market. my estimation is probably 8 million or 9 million jo

danny blanchflower is as dovish as you can get. his reaction later in the show.berg. ♪ emma: coming up in the next hour we will sit down for an exclusive interview with william dudley, the federal reserve bank of new york president. youremma chandra with bloomberg business flash. an unexpected rise in quarterly profits. oxcome gets half of its sales run apple. hong kong has been one of the hottest markets for tesla's electric cars because electric vehicles are exempt from attacks on new cars. that ends tomorrow when electric car buyers will have to pay the tax. they'll raise the price of a tesla by 50%. the narrow bread will be the first major chain to lift the amount of added sugar in it soda machines. they're trying to steer customers away from sugary drinks. they plan to offer averages made without artificial ingredients. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. david: we spoke with peter navarro, the director of the national trade council. although trade deficits are not --, they are not to blame they are to blame for u.s. job loss. peter: these deficits are cal

we have our bloomberg columnist and danny blanchflower of dartmouth will be joining us.berg. emma: this is bloomberg daybreak and this is the enterprise greenroom. coming up next hour, goldman sachs management mike swell, head of global portfolio management. emma: this is bloomberg daybreak. time for other stories making headlines. i'm emma with your bloomberg business flash. the c.e.o. turned around his company and putting together the units after splitting them up and deutsche bank wants to raise money in a share sell and giving up the idea of selling the consumer banking unit. wall street cops have been reigned in. the securities and exchange department is bracing for budget cuts under the trump administration. a ban on nonessential travel and a hiring freeze. officials have curbed the use of outside contractors to help s.e.c. lawyers with cases. puma and underarmour have switched sides and puma considered the hot brand and the profits are reviving and share as surging thanks in part to high profile endorsements rihanna. jenner and that's your bloomberg business flash

stay with us. ♪ >> let's get to our conversation formernny blanchflower, bank of england policymakers. danny the conversation just now on the fed. i want to get your take on it. how many comments coming out from john williams and bill dudley, saying, look, the case for tightening is looking more compelling. march is on the table. why all of a sudden are we seeing this chorus of said president talking about march ? it is above 75%. danny: we certainly heard today kaplan,ious, four, william, dudley, powell, i have no evidence what they have seen to suggest they should go and taken. the only evidence is that -- go and tighten. the u.s. economy looks weaker today than it did at the last meeting. slower growth than was predicted. be an employment rates pick up. two percentage points. wage growth slowing and investments flat, so i have no idea what it is they are doing. looks like they are making the same mistakes they made in 2008, and i was just reading a recent paper by john williams, one of the people on the fed, who said there was no great recession at all and the u.s. economy is booming and

on friday it's all about the payroll with mohamed el-erian, and danny blanchflower, expert on the laborrtmouth university. the market opening is 19 minutes away. the weekend and good for the bulls once again. futures down 1/10 of 1% of the s&p. you are watching bloomberg tv. ♪ ♪ alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. the countdown begins to 1:00 p.m. where janet yellen will speak. will she endorse a march rate hike? a look at the bloomberg financial conditions index. the circle is where this condition index was from the fed hack in december. you can see the spike in just a few weeks. toldman sachs says tha is adding as much a 70 basis points. keith and paul are with us. do you change your portfolio when you hear retail coming in? keith: not yet. the momentum is still very positive. the internals look good. the problem we have is valuation, which is a longer-term concern. we can see the markets continue their plot higher over the next few weeks. we are running into some serious headwinds. valuations and higher interest rates among those right now. alix: there was also the potential for the ma

professor blanchflower said they are nuts, youre not full employed, all are around a table, are you an agreement they are both crazy? adam: i feel guilty about being -- disagreeing with dannyo, saying that the cyclical aspect of unemployment was underrated. now i have changed my mind, denny may be right but i changed my mind and i know my colleagues and i think it is time to hike. change, hehe facts changes, we can go with . -- quote. francine: we will be back with adam posen of the peterson institute. and his cool tom charge and you can ib us and the producers. you can ask some questions directly to adam posen. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ shortly, coming up daybreak americas with david westin, jonathan ferro, and alix steel. what are you most looking for two? >> you just had dow futures slipping into positive territory, set to open another record high, over 21,000. the two-year yield not yet at 1.3%. a little bit of a selloff but yields not up one basis point which does not make sense. we will talk about it with the research president and chief investment strategist. i am going back to my hometown and talk oil, credit suisse cohead of energy, global capital markets, what is go