joining me is the senior editor for the cook political report, dave wasserman.e pat ryan won by campaigning on abortion. can we take a lot away from this considering he's campaigning on abortion in a very blue state where abortion is protected? are you able to say, yes, we can transpose that on races that are going to happen in the rest of the country in november? >> there's no question this is a huge victory for democrats. this is a bellwether position that biden carried in 2020. that's pretty much the mid point of the house of representatives. i think there's clear evidence that post-dobbs the environment has shifted in democrats' favor. where my caution flag would be is turnout in these specials has been really, really tiny. and they've been benefiting in heavily college educated areas in these races, but it's a fraction of the november electorate that's going to turn out. so the other half that's missing that. >> what about the enthusiasm in the gop? are they showing up? >> they're not. and you'd think that in the wake of the fbi search at mar-a-lago, there

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and then, you've got dave wasserman, from the quick political report, we're gonna talk about that shortlyhe forecast house races for the quick report, and he said, he's gonna downgrade his forecast a little bit when it comes to republicans in the house. he says it is the red wave, adding probably not much, but as democrats show more signs of life and are still emanate several problematic candidates, or downgrading our house outlook from a gop gain of 20 to 35 seats, down to 15 to 30 states. so, john, i will start with you. i listened to our podcast. i read your columns. i know you have been bullish on republican prospects in this next midterm elections. are you starting to feel any doubt about that? >> no. i think this is all wish casting. i think we haven't even discussed the issue that is going against biden. we haven't discussed the fact that 78 to 88% of the american people say we are on the wrong track we've got inflation, as a major political issue for the first time in 40 years. and one key thing to think about inflation is this. when you have a high unemployment number that means

. >> so, eugene, then, going back to cheney and dave wasserman with the cook political report, tweeting out lan. the idea that cheney could be a serious factor in a 2024 gop primary or would siphon votes from trump as an independent remains as preposterous as the idea this primary would be competitive. and you note in this morning's "politico playbook," cheney lost her seat, but gained something else. she's now the undisputed leader of the trump opposition. the competition wasn't very stiff. what impact, eugene, can liz cheney have really on a party that's reshaped in trump's image? >> i think at this point, it's hard to know, only other than what steve and vaughn just expertly laid out. there is, when you talk to a lot of different republicans, especially people who would probably consider themselves more establishment moderate republicans, that they are hoping that there is an alternative to donald trump in 2024. so that say we end up with a more open primary. let's say desan 'tis runs and cheney runs, right? the open that these folks have is that she is able to pull in enough votes i

ical but as dave wasserman of cook political notes, those four districts have something in common. dem successes in these specials have been fueled by highd engagement in college heavy enclaves like lincoln, nebraska, rochester, minnesota, ulster county, new york . and ithaca, new york pockets not all that representative of the larger fall electorate, not to mention that in poll afterleh poll voters have signaled thatei their number one concern is then economy and will wait.d where does abortion fall? according to pew, it'sim the eighth most important priority behind things like educatio likn, safety and supree court appointments. but you gosupremt to hand it tos the democrats. i think that because as republicans in leadership, they gripe about the quality oft our candidates. democrats, no matter how bad things look, no matteron a h how dismal they are politically, they just put a happy face. >>e we're happy if you feeld tt good, feels good. we have this sort of season of e shame where democrats are just so disappointed and frustrated. what's going on in dc? dismayed by the republi