there is a fear that david barno communicated that we will leave. one of the things i did after spending 10 days in isaf, is i stayed 10 days in kabul and spoke to regular afghans, from businessmen to politicians to regular afghans, and there is a palpable fear that we are going to leave it, if not in 2011, then in 2014. >> when you were there, when you left the commander in 2005, tell me what the feeling was and what your intelligence friend told you. >> the war is a different war than what was in 2005. by the spring of 2005, we completed the first ever presidential election. 10.5 million afghans registered to vote. it was a serious security day, but the taliban could not effectively intervene. >> on an average day, the violence was 023. -- zero to 3. what's now? 120 a day. >> it is a lot more peaceful than baghdad. over 66% of the violent attacks in afghanistan that occur each day have been in three districts butelmand, ken darandahar -- that is deceptive. >> the spring of 2005, the intelligence read on looking at the taliban was the chart and hal

there is a fear that david barno communicated that we will leave. one of the things i did after spending 10 days in isaf, is i stayed 10 days in kabul and spoke to regular afghans, from businessmen to politicians to regular afghans, and there is a palpable fear that we are going to leave it, if not in 2011, then in 2014. >> when you were there, when you left the commander in 2005, tell me what the feeling was and what your intelligence friend told you. >> the war is a different war than what was in 2005. by the spring of 2005, we completed the first ever presidential election. 10.5 million afghans registered to vote. it was a serious security day, but the taliban could not effectively intervene. >> on an average day, the violence was 023. -- zero to 3. what's now? 120 a day. >> it is a lot more peaceful than baghdad. over 66% of the violent attacks in afghanistan that occur each day have been in three districts butelmand, ken darandahar -- that is deceptive. >> the spring of 2005, the intelligence read on looking at the taliban was the chart and hal

david barno. hosted by the nixon center, this is one hour and 15 minutes. >> i think we are going to start a little earlier. welcome to the nixon center. i am marvin kalb, a visiting fellow at the nixon center. once a week, we have luncheon conversations about major issues of american foreign policy. today, we are dealing with afghanistan. we will all try to figure that out as the golan today. i have in mind a couple of time frames. last december, president obama promised that in july of 2011, the united states would began a withdrawal of its forces from afghanistan dependent upon conditions on the ground. that is an issue that has been somewhat superseded by another date and another issue and that is 2014. in lisbon, nato and afghanistan reached a deal that is by the end of 2014, combat operations by naida -- nato would come to london, and at that time, afghan police and army would take over. within a couple of days or a week or so, president obama is going to come in with another report on afgha

david barno. he is now a senior fellow at the center for a new american security and he is co-author of a new report that is coming out today. i have my first question with the general. let me introduce to my left, the ambassador ronald neumann. he was u.s. ambassador to afghanistan in 2005-2007. to my immediate left, david sanger the chief washington correspondent for the new york times. he is a winner of two pulitzer prizes. we are delighted to have all of you here today. i want to start with the general. based on your study, what do you think we can expect in july of 2011? >> the president will probably give us a fair understanding of that letter this week. i do think we will see the beginnings of the first elements of transition next summer and afghanistan, bills will be very, very small movements. i think realistically to get an understanding of whether the strategy in place now is going to work, we will not be able to have a good approximation of that until late summer next year. those troop

david barno graduated in united states military academy's class of 1976.ombat in grenada and panama. in 2003, he was elected to establish a new three-star operational headquarters to take command of u.s. and coalition forces in operation in during freedom, leading admission until 2005. after retiring from the army the next year, he became the director of the national defense university's near east and south asia studies center. he did that for four years before joining the center for new american securities earlier this year is a senior adviser and senior fellow. with andrew exum, dave wrote " responsible transition, securing u.s. interests in afghanistan beyond 2011." andrew exum is a fellow and a former army ranger who served in combat in iraq and afghanistan. andrew exum later served as an adviser to the scent, assessment team -- the centcomm assessment team. he is just off a plane this morning from afghanistan where he spent the last few weeks in battlefield circulation and discussions with commanders on the ground. welcome home. we are honored to have