this is a big moment as john, you were talking about with lauren fox and david chalian, about what this is now really kick starting which is a little bit of the unclear process of where this is going at the moment. >> to be clear, kevin mccarthy at this point believed that a vote was necessary on the house floor to launch an impeachment inquiry, and i did not hear him say that he would call for a vote to begin the impeachment inquiry, and he said he is directing the inquiry to begin, and we will get more details there if we heard it right, but this is kicking off presumably a process here. >> it does. >> here that is going to be very political, and that up until now we have not been presented with any evidence directly that president biden himself did anything wrong here, but -- >> that is the key part of this, the investigations have been going on through a couple of the commit tease and he mentioned judiciary and the ways and means will be a part of this, but what is even despite what the speaker said right there, there has been no direct evidence that joe biden, himself, is personall

i want to start with david chalian who is here. can you just explain what we should be looking for and what we're beginning to see tonight matters, if at all. >> it does matter because there is still a significant enough swath of the republican party that remains open to considering somebody not named donald trump. as long as that exists, these candidates not named trump will be on the debate stage have a case to make and try to grab them. they have the mission with donald trump so far ahead of needing to peel away some donald trump supporters to their cause, but some do also have consideration of other candidates. so that's key. the other thing i would just note here, donald trump is so dominant in the information flow. he's in every headline. he's the dominant force. this is an opportunity for these candidates tonight to capture the attention of republican primary voters directly. one-on-one basically into their living rooms without a donald trump headline interfering. that's not something they get all that often. >> when you tal

. >>> here with me to share their insights is david chalian, politico's heidi hezbollah and tia mitchellthe atlanta journal constitution. >> is there anything better than manu raju's side eye? >> nothing. >> occasionally that works. >> david chalian, it's really striking to see and hear what kevin mccarthy has done today, versus how he started the week which is you want an impeachment, i'll give you an impeachment. you want this, i want give you this. he's now saying, i'm done. it's a change of tactic. and of course, there's obviously, a sense he's fed up. >> yeah, and this he's fully en engaged. i connect what we saw today to what we actually saw not at the beginning of this week, but at the beginning of this year with the vote of 15 rounds. kevin mccarthy, if you recall, came into his battle for the speakership saying, as long as it takes. we will keep voting and, he was kit kmed to that strategy. he's daring his an tagonists in the conference in a very similar fashion that he did in january. he emerged victorious, perhaps a bit bruised, perhaps with deals he didn't want to have to mak

let's get started with david chalian, what are we seeing? >> we're seeing what is basically a one-man race for the republican presidential nomination. our brand new numbers among republicans, you have donald trump at 52%. majority support. ron desantis is next in line here way back at 18%. everyone else is in single digits. this is a one-man race. look at where we have it in june. you see the movement here. donald trump is getting stronger as a front runner. he's up 5% compared to where he was in june. and look at ron desantis. he is slipping. he's down 8% from where he was in june. you see little margin for movement except for vivek ramaswamy, who is also you want 5 points since june. so right now you're seeing a donald trump-dominated race and donald trump is getting stronger. >> how locked in is donald trump's support? >> look at this overall. we asked are you with the person you're going to support or might you change your mind. this is among republican and republican-leaning voters. two-thirds of republicans say they are going to defini

. >> joining me now to share their reporting and their insights is jeff zeleny, david chalian and cnn's phil mattingly. i hit the panel jackpot today. good morning, gentlemen. thank you so much for being here. i should say that jeff and david, you and i were up late last night. i know we're not going to complain about lack of sleep, but it was very interesting to be there and to kind of get a sense of what it was like here in california. i want to start with you, david chalian. can you just give an overall analysis of what we saw and why it matters? >> we saw several people on the debate stage thirsty for attention. that was really clear in how they presented themselves last night. and what we didn't see, again, for the second time in a row now, was a front runner on that stage. so these debates are becoming this exercise where we are now just over 100 days from the iowa caucuses for one of these candidates to start being able to consolidate enough support in the nontrump supportive wing of the party to actually emerge as an alternative to donald trump. and so this is a process. you don

david chalian is with me now. we have seen an outpouring of tributes for senator feinstein and her mark on politics. i wanted to bring up this remarkable moment from the senate floor in 1993. it says something special about her ability to be quick on her feet and show that she can do the job. this is her first year as a senator. she can do the job just as well, if the not better than her male colleagues. >> the gentle lady from california needs to become a little more familiar with firearms and their deadly characteristics. i say that because it is -- >> it is a personal privilege please? i am quite familiar with firearms. i became mayor as a product of assassination. >> i'm aware of that. >> i found my assassinated colleague and put a finger through a bullet hole trying to get gun control legislation in san francisco. i wept through a recall on the basis of it. i was trained in the shooting of a firearm when i had terrorist attacks with a bomb at my house when my husband was dying, when i had had windows shout ou

david chalian is at the magic wall to break it down. who is in the battle for second place among republicans in new hampshire? >> well as you know, in our brand-new cnn poll in partnership with the university of new hampshire, donald trump is the clear front-runner, at 39% support. this is among likely republican primary voters. jake, there is a four-way tie, basically, this is all margin of error, for second place. desantis at 10%, chris christie at 11% and haley at 12 and ramaswamy at 14. so there is a four-way hunt and take a look to the battle in the first of the nation primary state in july. if you take a look, donald trump is remaining the same since july. rama ramaswamy is way up. haley ask way up. christy is way up. ron desantis is way down. he's dropped from 23% to 10%. again, they are in a battle for the second place slot there. we asked republican primary voters, who do you think as best chance of winning the general election? 51%, a majority say donald trump. 16% say ron desantis and 10% say nikki haley. and remember donald

david chalian, thank you very much for that perspective. brianna?now, sentencing hearing for former proud boys chairman enrique tarrio. he was arrconvict of seditious conspiracy at the u.s. capitol. evan perez is live outside of the courthouse. what more are you learning? >> rid now, brianna, the judge is considering whether to add a terrorism enhancement which would up the sentence that he is able to give or that he would give to enrique tarrio. it's something that he has declined to do in the previous four of these sentencings for four members of the proud boys that we saw in the last few days. just as a reminder, we've had four of them already sentenced. ethan nordian got 18-year sentence, and zachary reel 18 years and dominic pizzola, four of these men were convicted of seditious conspiracy. enrique tarrio is of course, the leader. he was not here that day and that's something his lawyer and his attorney is emphasizing to the judge saying, look, he wasn't here that day. he wasn't in touch with them, with the members of the proud boys. he wasn't

here david chalian, aisha roscoe and thank you one and all, david chalian, i'll start with you, manuas talking about the fact that he has support from those on the right flank of his caucus. it's not support, it's threat. >> right. i mean -- what is inextricably linked is kevin mccarthy's move here and kevin mccarthy's quest to survive as speaker. and that is what you're seeing on display here. and so, by moving ahead with his impeachment inquiry, absent sort of unified support from his conference, kevin mccarthy is saying in no uncertain terms, his own survival in this job as speaker is the most important thing here. rather than getting the entire republican conference together with this as a critical goal for this fall. and just think that's important note here. also, it's so different from what we saw four years ago when nancy pelosi launched impeachment inquiry against donald trump in the first trump impeachment. she waited for her more moderate front-line members to get on board with this idea. they were so skittish that this was going to blow up in their face. it took them a wh

david chalian, cnn, washington. >> thank you, david.al are director for obama 2012. we have not been together in a very long time. and i am happy to have both of you gentlemen on. let me start with you. we're a week out from a potential federal government shutdown. chuck schumer, the major ity leader senate says that maybe the senate should start if the house can't get it together. do you see a path that avoids a shutdown, considering what mccarthy is juggling now? >> it certainly seems to be getting hard er with every passing minute. just because what the hardliners in the house republican caucus are calling for is going to take more time to get done before this deadline. now that said, there's going to be a tremendous amount of pressure on kevin mccarthy to get something done. we know on the political side, we are a few lines away from an important election year. government shutdownsen don't play well with the electorate. and we can often have a debate about who is responsible for a government shutdown, both sides can be intran gent,

with me now, cnn political director david chalian. these are tough numbers. >> it's a snapshot of this moment, 14 months out. it shows the work ahead that president biden and his team have if he's to be successful in re-election. you mentioned the approval rating at 39%. i want to put that in context of where that stacks up against his modern era predecessors. i want you to see here. biden is hanging down here with trump and carter. guess what? trump and carter, they didn't win their attempts at re-election. that is a danger zone there for the president. you noted the economy piece. i mean, look at the sour mood of americans. only 30% of americans in our poll say things are going well in the country. 7 in 10 say they're going badly. >> that's with inflation slowing down, with jobs numbers good, with economic growth good. he still or they still, americans still think things are going badly, besides the economy, what are voters saying? >> you mentioned it at the top, it is the age factor. we see 49% of democrats, we asked an open-ended

joining us now, cnn political director david chalian.hat he is trying to draw? >> he doesn't say it in the presentation, but he has no qualms when you ask him. he said yeah, i'm talking about the former president. i'm talking about the candidates in the race who are copying, mimicking the former president like vivek ram swami in mike pence's estimation. this is the vision thing and a real contrast in vision for the republican party, this populism versus conservatism, and the problem is the party he's pitching it to has largely moved to the more populous win under trump's dominance, and when you talk about traditional republican issues, donald trump is leading in all of them. >> john, look, in our poll that was just out yesterday we asked folks about who would handle the issues best? that's the horse race. 52%, you see donald trump's dominance in the race, but when you look at the issue list and you look at things like who can best handle the economy, and 65% of republicans say donald trump. 63% on ukraine. 59% on government overreach. i

let's get straight to political director david chalian. know you're going to go through the poll. what is biden's support among independents, a very important group in that state? >> it's a good question. also chances of my day being peaceful and calm are zero. i do want to point out, you noted biden vs. trump matchup. he does have a bigger lead than he does nationally. he bests every single republican we tested him against, which is good news for joe biden. only donald trump does he actually get above 50%. you noted the party breakdown in the results. take a look here. among democrats, one of the reasons why joe biden is doing so well against donald trump, he has near universal support of his own kind. you asked about independents. interestingly, joe biden is losing independents in this poll to donald trump by 6%. but because he's got near universal support with democrats and because donald trump is performing at 79% support among his own republicans, this overwhelms the independent deficit that biden has and is what is putting biden ahea

joining us is political analyst david chalian.at maga who is cooling the attacks on desantis, and is it is fair to say that they no longer see desantis as a threat? >> i don't think that you will be seeing either the trump campaign or the allied super pac maga, inc. taking their foot off of desantis, but you are right that we have seen a rotation in the ads and the super pac of trump is more focused on insulating donald trump from all of the legal morass that he is in. so they are taking on as they call it the weaponization of the justice department and these political prosecutions as they are trying to portray the real legal peril that donald trump is in and protect him with the ad dollars, but they have an ad up talking about him as the extreme front-runner the race. rahel, surpassing $100 million is what you have not seen nothing yet, because we have not gotten into the heat of the campaign yet. >> and that is a good way to put it, "you ain't seen nothing yet." and now, going into the places like iowa and new hampshire, and m m

david chalian is back with us. the polling on this is super interesting. facts. explain what it's about and how this could have gone from a diversion to an indictment. >> the gun charge is not what people may think. it relates to the claim he was adducted to controlled substances that are laid out in the law. and it violates the law by saying i'm going to get this firearm and secure that procedurally. and there's certain things you couldn't be dishonorably discharged. so there's a whole class of things you can do. he had a drug addiction and is getting this firearm. and there's bye-bye challenges to the constitutionty it of it. this is not sliek smg you're going out and firing that firearm. you cannot this is something that the judge brought up when the plea deal was fall ing apar. >> it was a marijuana use that basically it's an overreach. this is something that i hate to say it, but if you pull people across the united states with firearms, there's plenty of people using marijuana. so it's a little bit of an extreme case or statute. the bigger issue woul

we're going to discuss it with my colleagues here, margaret, manu raju, and david chalian. been the biggest challenge of the biden administration/re-election campaign, that he's got all of these good economic indicators, he can't seem to get traction for it when it comes to how the voters see him. so, this is quite literally a rose garden strategy to say, this is what we're doing. please give me credit. >> and the reality is, he can't afford sitting at 37% approval on the economy to let an opportunity -- any opportunity to talk about the economy pass. he takes it because you can't throw your hands up if you're joe biden or the re-election campaign and say, it just doesn't seem to be breaking through. their mission is, every single day, they need to continue to be out there to try and convince the american people with all the numbers that you're talking about. i mean, he does have a good story to tell on job growth, on inflation easing. these are -- this is not like he doesn't have a story to tell, but you are right. there is no evidence yet that the american people have sor

. >> joining us now is cnn political director david chalian. d, trump's support in 2016 from conservatives from evangelical voters really focused on gaining a conservative majority on the supreme court to overturn roe. he got that, that court then overturned roe during the biden administration. can he approach this issue with a general election strategy, without turning off the republican base? what do the polls tell us? >> well, we're going to find out is the answer to your question. you'll recall right after the 2022 midterms, brianna, donald trump sort of played political analyst and believed some of his party's problems in not achieving some of the expected gains was because of their stance on abortion rights or lack thereof, in a post-war world. heed mely got backlashed from the pro-life community, activist part of the base inside the republican party. and what you've seen since is donald trump trying to navigate his way through. agency you noted, sort of focus more on a general election message which he hasn't really landed on here, versus

kristen holmes is here along with david chalian. david, you just got back from california. second republican debate where donald trump was not. could this be a potential s self-fulfilling prophecy for some of these candidates if they decide not to invest in california? it is further down in the list of states that are doing primary voting. >> yeah, if you are a candidate not named donald trump, you aren't probably very focused on california just yet because the path to actually take on donald trump is going to come first in iowa and nevada, south carolina, new hampshire. but trump and his team have done something savvy here in the sense that they have showing us i think, you can tell me if you disagree, but they are a bit more of an organized operation than they were back in 2015 and 2016. and so they are playing a bit of the inside game as well. and one of the things that they have done in california is to try tole after the way delegates get allocated there so that if somebody gets more than 50% of the vote, they win all the delegates. that is a savvy move. it has caused

let's bring in cnn political director david chalian. this does mark the end of an if era of sorts. he is one of, if not the last statesman in the u.s. senate. >> there is no doubt that it marks end of a storied political career. it is hard to imagine him having something beyond this. but as even mitt romney noted, some of the elder statesman remain in their roles in both parties, something he's arguing against with this announcement, jake. he's arguing for a real generational shift. time to pass the torch to the next generation which is why he takes this criticism to both trump and biden. he said to dan balls in "the washington post" in an interview that he thinks that is likely the choices before the american people and he thinks its a terrible choice to present because another one of them he believes at this point in their lives are in a position to lead properly into the next generation. and i would note that this is a mitt m-- mitt romney, think abot him running against kennedy serving as governor of massachusetts and a liberal stat

joining me now from simi valley, california, where tonight's debate will take place cnn director david chalian. the polls enforce the reality that we have been seeing in this primary that donald trump has a big lead. what does that mean, though, for a second trumpless stage? >> yeah. you noted why is donald trump not showing up? yes, because of the polls and also because his lead has gone up since not showing up in that first debate. that is evidence that the trump campaign has received that they don't feel they need to be here, but as you note, there is still a real opportunity for candidates not named trump in this battle, yes, they are in a battle for second place to try any consolidate support and emerge here as a trump alternative even one that is far behind trump at this moment in the polls and that's what this opportunity presents an opportunity for millions of voters to tune in and hear from those candidates. as you know, kate, donald trump dominates not just the polls, but the national narrative, the headlines and this is an opportunity for the other candidates to get into the flow fo

here to share their insights and memories with senator feinstein is gloria borger, david chalian, and jeff zeleny. gloria, you spent a lot of time with senator feinstein. >> i did. she was one of a kind. i have to tell you, she was endlessly curious. she was interested in what other people were saying about what was going on in the senate, and for some reason, i became part of a group of women -- she used to have an aid call to ask us to have dinner about once every month or six weeks, and we'd go to this perfectly set up dinner at a cafe in washington at a conscious table with beautiful flowers. and off the record, but it was not only a discussion -- it wasn't really about what was going on in the intelligence committee, of which she was chairman, it was about sort of the events of the day, how are you, what's going on in your news organization, there was a little bit of gossip in there. but such a gracious hostess, you got this feeling she just wanted to bring people in. she lived in this big house in washington and her husband was very often in california. and maybe she just wanted

with me now, cnn political director david chalian and welcome back once again. for you, what stands out? there is a lot here. >> there is a lot here, and none of it good for the white house. this is a sort of the alarm bells are going off to sort of spell out to them the task ahead in the next few months. and the approval rating is hovering in that range here since the range, but that is how it is stacking up to the modern day predecessors at this stage in the presidency. so biden is sort of hanging in this area, with trump and carter just to note that both of those folks lost the re-election efforts when they were running for re-election, and looking at the mood of the country, 30% of the americans say that things are going well, but 7 in 10 americans say they are going badly. >> i am going to make the assumption that the economic issues are one of the big concerns for americans, inflation, and the jobs are not giving them enough money to keep up. >> no doubt. economy is a big part of this, but as we saw, he is also having a problem with the democrats, and thei

. >> that's the point that david chalian made at the begin of the show and i'm glad that you made it to end it. thank you so much. >> great to be here with you. >> we'll go through the library together. >> we will. >>> thank you so much for watching. don't forget to tune in tonight, cnn's anderson cooper and i will host the republican presidential debate, post debate analysis, live tonight at 11:00 p.m. history. get the political analysis that you need right here on cnn. appreciate you joining "inside politics." "cnn news central" starts right now. ♪ >>> expelled from the hermit kingdom, the u.s. army private who bolted into north korea is in u.s. custody. north korea saying their investigation is finished. >>> plus, senator bob menendez faces a federal judge and growing calls to resign. but the democrat is fighting back against bribery charges. we'll have the details on what went down in court. >>> plus, skipping the debate stage for a swing state. the elephant not in the room. former president donald trump will be a no-show at tonight's republican presidential debate as his busines

happy to be joined in studio by david chalian with all this new polling. and some people think polls. this one is totally riveting and fascinating about how americans think joe biden is handling his job. >> it's going to set off some alarm bells in the white house. you noted his approval rating is down at 39%. 61% of americans disapprove. he's been hang ing at that low point for quite some time. we talk about the mood of the country. not that great. 3 in 10 americans, that's it, say things are going well in the country. 7 in 10 say things are going badly in the country. and 58% of americans in this poll say that joe biden's policies have actually worsened economic conditions in the country. only 234% say they have improved conditions. this is why we hear him talking about booid normalics every day he's out in the country. >> the president is the oldest president in history. it's just the reality. they don't love talking about it, but it's not the pervasive issue for voters. it's not going to be the determinant factor. >> it's on the mind of voters. we'll s

with me here are two of our terrific colleagues, cnn political director david chalian and cnn's jeffzeleny. hi guys. >> hi, diana. >> we are always last in the room because we have so much to talk about. jeff, i love -- we were talking before hand, and we will take you in our conversations off camera. you are sort of -- your analysis of what we saw tonight, what was it? >> look, as the seasons have changed, just a sense of urgency on the debate stage tonight was so different from milwaukee. we are now in the fall and you can just feel the imperative on the minds of each candidate to try and do something, try and make a move in this race. really, person by person by person. in the beginning when florida governor ron desantis, he wasted no time directly confronting donald trump because that is what he needs to do. he said, he is missing in action. then it went on from there. but i just think that the feeling of time could be running out for some of these candidates in a scramble for second place. they want to make their move. >> yes, and i would just note that for each person, and i ag

. >> notably, there is a strong portion of the base as we've seen in polling that david chalian was layinghat does believe some of what the freedom caucus has been feeding them especially in regards to hunter biden and potential ties to the white house. as leaders of the republican party when you see the way they're communicating with members of the base, as we get closer to primaries in 2024, is it a mistake to conflate these things and to lead voters in a direction where they're anticipating a result of a potential impeachment inquiry where there might not be one? >> yeah, i think it's quite possible. it's, you know, how do you -- how do you pull that train off the track now? they've already started the impeachment train. how do you say you don't find anything? it's probably ultimately in the short-term good for it base, terrible for the general election. and this is what they're going to have to face is, you know, the moderates, the so-called moderates left in the republican party are frustrated. i was one of them. i went through fights like this not even as intense as this, and i can t

. >> here with me at the table david chalian, gloria borger, manu raju and julie davis of "the new york see you all. a busy friday. i want to pull up the list of the 39 that this special grand jury recommended for indictment. as we talked about before, as you heard from sara, 19 of these, including the former the president himself, were indicted separately. for our purposes, i want to zero in on three individuals who were not. lindsey graham, david perdue and kelly leffler. what is interesting is that lindsey gra graham, we have the brackdown of the voting. and lindsey graham, only 13 of them said yes. 7 said no. for perdue, it was 17-4. kelly loeffler, 14-6. just by way of comparison. most of those who were actually indicted again, including the former president, 20 of the grand jurors said yes. what does this tell us, let's start with the politics of what happened. >> i think for lindsey graham, you're probably going to hear him say so what, some people on the grand jury voted to indict me. i was not indicted. there was a clear disagreement between him and brad raffensperger about wha

who better than our political director david chalian to share some of the numbers from the brand newin new hampshire. >> we do this in partnership with the university of new hampshire, this is our first state specific look at the 2024 look for the cycle. here's the state of the race, primary currently stands among likely republican primary voters up in new hampshire, you see donald trump is the dominant front runner. he's got 39% support. that's three times as much support as his closest competitor. you see there ramaswamy at 13. nikki haley at 12. chris christie at 11, and ron desantis at 10. that is a four-way tie, if you will, given the margin of error. a four-way battle for second place there. down in the single digits, tim scott, mike pence, and others. i wanted to show you the movement in this race from july's university of new hampshire poll. donald trump remains pretty much the same, 37% in july, 39% now. look at this, ramaswamy up a lot from 5 to 13. nikki haley, way up, from 5 to 12. chris christie way up from 6 to 11, and ron desantis way down, 13 points from 23% support i

. >> now let's break this down with julie hirschfield davis and john bresnahan and david chalian and alana treene. so good to you have all of here on this very busy weekend of news. and they were in the capitol all day yesterday, negotiating with speaker mccarthy to try to figure out a way out. mccarthy is trying to do something that he was unsuccessful in doing. trying to get republicans online to keep the government open. but there are just this morning we heard one hard-line conservative tim burchett said he would not maintain a short-t short-term bill. there are about seven that say they will not go forward. how does mccarthy continue down this path and how does it end. >> we're going to of a shutdown. that is clear right now. even if they pass something this week it would take until this weekend. there is going to be a shutdown. mccarthy is going to try to save himself. it is either his future or a potential shutdown and so far he's chewing the shutdown path. and there is way over, seven, eight, ten votes against some kind of cr, continuing resolution. there is no way they could

let's bring in our political experts to discuss david chalian our political director share these numbersor us, what we're seeing in new hampshire right now about a potential 2024 rematch. >> remember, hillary clinton edged out a narrow victory over donald trump in '16 in new hampshire, joe biden won it more substantially three years ago. take a look at this brand new cnn poll in conjunction with the university of new hampshire, and you see, well this is splitting by party, but overall joe biden is at 52%, and donald trump is at 40%. take a look here when you look by party, wolf, 94% of democrats are basically universally aligned with biden in this, and that helps him overwhelm a slight 6 percentage lead that trump has over biden and independents, 45 to 39, but note here donald trump is lower, 79% than biden with democrats. we see joe biden in each one of the general election matchups with republicans, wolf, winning this state outside the margin of error. it could be a battleground state that's tilting a little blue if it stays this way the full year. but it is welcome news to the white h

straight to cnn political director david chalian.n's approval rating stand with this particular latest poll? >> yes. remember this is our first state-specific poll of the cycle. we are looking at new hampshire. a state that donald trump lost twice, narrowly to hillary clinton in '16 and biden three years ago. joe biden's approval rating in new hampshire is at 46%. 54% disapprove. this, too, like you were saying about the horse race, is a better number than joe biden gets nationally. 39 or 40%. so this is welcome news and may take this battleground state and tilt it a touch blue. >> as we look at the national polls, you talk about how that's different than the 46% is higher than the -- the head-to-head with trump is significantly better than what we have seen on average nationally. what does that mean for the age question? because that has contributed so heavily to ind coo of the national unease. >> yeah, and listen, this a factor, as you know, talking to your white house sources, is not going away. they understand that. we see it in