so let's go to david chalian, our political director. david now, it's a significant night, historic and setting up this this rematch first nearly 70 years, biden and trump both poised to capture enough delegates in these next minutes and hours to secure their party's nomination. so let's start with biden as we await that the call in georgia where the polls just closed, as i said, about five minutes ago that could officially put him over the top that he has a nomination. where does he currently stand in the delegate count? >> so if you look in the upper right-hand corner there, 1,968 delegates is what is needed to secure the democratic nomination. joe biden has 1,868 delegates in his column to date. so he is a shy of where he needs to be, erin, there are 108 delegates at stake on the democratic side in georgia. so as we await for that vote to come in from georgia will be able to see if he's able to put it away with that early state closing tonight and get over the hurdle there. you see 20 delhi so it gets uncommitted, has and that's largel

david chalian, thanks so much. cnn super tuesday coverage continues after this break. >> we'll be right back. >> special live coverage of the state of the union address thursday at eight on cnn. >> only united medicare advantage plans come with a eukaryote, one simple member card that open when czars for what matters how about eating it at the pharmacy? >> yes >> you're you card is all you need. >> that's easy. >> the all-in-one you card only from unitedhealthcare as the earth issues a distress call in the face of a pending climate crisis. and we're downbeat is advancing his agenda for a greener future. with an ideal climate to support some of the world's largest solar projects. and a grid that's almost completely powered by clean energy. it's a city that nurtures sustainable innovation developing solutions in carbon capture, sustainable transportation and coastal regeneration. we dhabi is helping fast forward the uae's sustainable mission. >> king charles starts now gayle king and charles barkley are shaking thing

and david chalian is digging deeper into our exit polls from virginia. and david, what are you learning from the exit polls about who actually makes up the exactly the different components of this virginia republican presidential primary electric, you give us insight here. if you look at a party id, this is how people identify 60%, say that they identify as republican. now remember, it's a non-partisan. there's no party registration in virginia, but 60% of voters in the republican primary identify as republican 30% independent, 11% democrat democrats voting in the republican primary. now, this is not quite as many independents as we saw new hampshire but it is some opportunity there you would imagine for nikki haley, take a look also at the breakdown of urban versus suburban and rural by far, suburbanites are showing up a big number, 72% of the electorate from suburban areas, 18% urban 10% rural on the question of race. it is an overwhelmingly white electorate in the republican presidential primary in virginia, at 7% white. and you could see every other r

david chalian is back with more results from our exclusive flash poll. david. >> yeah. jake. and again, just a reminder, this is a poll of speech watchers, more democrats tune in to watch a democrat president, a democratic president speak. and so overall, it skews a little more democratic than the public overall. but we asked both about ukraine and israel and take a look at the results. president biden's proposed level of u.s. aid to ukraine among speech watchers tonight, 34% said too much of a proposed level of u.s. aid, 49. the plurality here says about right, 16% says not enough when it comes to proposed level of u.s. support for israel, 28% of speech watchers says said too much, 53% a clear majority says about right. 20% of speech watchers said not enough. and anderson, interestingly, we see an age divide on that question substantially more people under the age of 45 says it's too much support for israel, whereas if you're over 45, only 22% say that. all right. >> david chalian, thanks very much. let's go live to two key regions mentioned during tonight's speech. cnn's cl

i mean, david chalian, we're seeing that play out in georgia right now. i mean, can you just explain what we're what's happening with these numbers because nikki haley is there about 14%. obviously, she is no longer in this race. but what do you make? of what is happening there given that margin that doug was talking about, but her name on the ballot still allows this protest vote is non-trump vote inside the context of republican primary. i mean, one of the great mathematical equations to be done, this election season will be okay, well, how many of those folks just put on the republican jersey and stay with the republican nominee. and how many are actually potential biden voters in the fall, but largely i think when you look at these two unpopular nominees that come into focus tonight, the negative partisanship is going to drive so much of this because politics is always not an either or but a both end. and so these candidates are going to have to really he gin up enthusiasm in their base and they're going to do that with the negative partisanship that

so i want to go to cnn's political director david chalian, who is tracking all of this. so where do things stand right now for the former president david? >> yeah, anderson, 40 delegates at stake and mississippi tonight, donald trump wins all of them because the rules are that if you get over 50% of the vote in the state, it is winner-take-all he's going to get over 50% of the vote as the last man standing with no real opposition in this campaign. so add those 40 delegates to where he isn't. so this is where donald trump finds himself. now, you noted 1,200 and upper right-hand corner there. he needs to secure the republican nomination. he's now at 1108 ed for delegates that puts him 31 delegates away from securing the republican party nomination. that will likely happen when washington vote, when washington state's votes come in later this evening in the 11:00 eastern hour. obviously, as you noted, anderson, this is not a surprise, and this is not the balloon i'm drop moment. that'll happen in the convention in milwaukee in the summer when the delegates make it official.

eight point advantage and seems to be gaining ground with younger voters and independence cnn's david chalian has much more forest david, a smart man named david chalian flag this morning roughly a quarter of voters in both of these states say that they are not locked in to their vote quite yet why is that so important? >> you said is right gaping we are still seven plus months away from the election. so it's important because as we know with polls, this is a snapshot in time. but when voters tell you, yeah, i could change my mind. it kind of proves the point that there is work to be done here for both the trump and the biden campaign with all these months ahead of them to seal the deal. but i want to go inside a little bit some of the demographics slices underneath those horse-race numbers that you just provided. look here in pennsylvania. if you look among independents, you see that biden's at 46% trump at 36%. he's plus ten among independents back in 2020 according to the exit polls by them was plus eight in pennsylvania among indies. so within range women, he's plus eight with women back

david chalian john king. nikki haley does get a w on the board, but still, i mean, look at the delegate here, that delegate mass because just to reinforce what david said, number one, you see the math, you see the one haley victory in vermont. congratulations, but you see just from coast to coast so far. and again, what david just said i mean, the challenge, if you're donald trump tonight, you're getting 90% of the delegates. remember in 2016, there was talk of we would there be a contested convention that's why i picked mike pence, satisfy christian conservatives and evangelicals that he was fine. that'll trump is not head to formerly clinching, which will be next week. and then beyond in a position of quote, unquote weakness when it comes to the republican party, this will be his convention. unlike 2016, obviously 2020 was his convention. but if you pull that up, you just look at the breadth of it. now, the question just now is just when does he get over thousand tonight? most probably. most likely, yes. an

david chalian is back back with us here. david give us an update on where we stand now in this delegate watch. >> yeah. you just said it, abby, donald trump has crossed the threshold. the former president has yet again secured the republican party nomination for the third presidential election cycle in a row, 1,215 delegates are needed to win look at that donald trump number. he is now at 1,200 delegates. this is after we were able to allocate 31 delegates from washington state into donald trump's column. he's going to win washington state tonight. we still have 12 delegates from washington state to assign, but we have enough in donald trump's column to put them over the edge look at where we are at donald trump's trajectory overall in this race. 1,219 delegates. and if you look at it by percentages you will see donald trump has won overwhelmingly the vast majority north of 92% of the delegates up for grabs in this nomination. season so far, a big percentage to close it out. he makes it look as if it was really never in doubt

david chalian is back with us along with cnn political commentators van jones and s e cupp and david, let's start with you. i'll bet of sin is all of this for the biden campaign? well, >> it's not where a president would want to be heading into the heat of his reelection campaign. that being said, you just showed a slew of polls trump in a couple of them is outside the margin of error >> and trump argued the president is not an to of the united states that would have been a head-scratcher to me if the supreme court nine justices agreed on that, this is one where reasonable minds can disagree and the other thing is they did not accept donald trump's invitation. he said, please say in his papers, please say i'm not an insurrectionist nine nothing. they declined to take him up on that request, discuss that at all of the supreme court decision. and if you read it fascinating, 20 pages, i've gone through a single single-space, david, what do you think of the secretary of state of colorado is saying that trump's still represents a threat to democracy here in the united states. well, listen,

and here with us >> now to discuss cnn political director david chalian, cnn political commentators maria cardona and alice stewart. maria democratic strategist, and alice is a republican strategist. david to you first a lot happening this morning. where do i mean the general election campaign is on and we're seeing and trump and biden trying to get those nikki haley's borders. it's going to be a tough sell probably from both sides of this >> yeah. and with our polling director, jen adjusted have been looking at some numbers this morning to try to understand these conversation about nikki haley voters, who are they and what did her composition of voters look like? across the six states that we have exit polls for in this contest 48% of haley voters were republicans, 41% of haley voters were independents, and 11% of haley voters were democrats. so we're calling haley voters are actually going to be independents, never trumper republicans and some democrats. so what we're looking at is pieces of the biden 2020 coalition. i mean, in our in our january poll, we found 19% of haley supporters s

i want to bring in my political panel, cnn's david chalian, cnn's priscilla alvarez, and carl hulse of the new york times. i want to start where kevin started, david. and i want you to talk about sort of the big picture in the moment, but specifically about this decision to make a very big policy announcement when it comes to first and foremost, what is needed, which is humanitarian aid. in the world. but what is needed for him? personally politically, which is a nod to people in his party who are saying do something, do more. >> well, let's put this in context with president biden has basically not been able to go give a speech anywhere over the course of the last several months without being shouted down by protesters demanding calls for a ceasefire fire, demanding calls for more humanitarian aid. this is something that has bedeviled the president, the vice president you just see it time and time again. so does getting ahead of this a bit apart from the political piece of it in terms of the electoral politics getting, ahead of this, putting this out, there could have been a moment an

kate, let's dig into as david chalian. thank you so much these exit polls are are always so interesting because we're hearing directly from voters as they're heading in or exiting, hence the name jamal. what's your takeaway from what david just laid out here on that score that david just laid out. i'm taking a look at what he said about the moderate and liberal numbers in virginia and 35% of that population is moderate or liberal. that's not something that you're used to seeing. and some of these more conservative republican states. so be interesting to see if nikki haley actually overperformed some of her recent numbers because there are more people who maybe are a little less inclined to believe donald trump. but the earlier number that's still sticks in my head. is that 40% of people in virginia said that he was not fit if he gets convicted to me, that says to you that those people, even if let's say half of them, 20% of that still vote from now on trump. there's still a big number of voters out there that are available

david chalian, dana bash, important note. be sure to watch dana in about 20 minutes right at the top of the hour on inside politics, she's got an excellent show coming up. we'll all be watching and there's more news we're following. we've just learned that donald trump has actually now paid out $92 million in bond as he appeals the e jean carroll defamation case in new york. we have details straight ahead backroom deals, cia secrets, >> affairs, bribery, corruption, prostitution there's so much more to the store >> united states of scandal with jake tapper next sunday at nine on cnn. >> hi, my name is damian clark and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with the humana medicare advantage dual eligible special needs plan all these plans include a healthy options allowance, a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries utilities, rent, and over-the-counter

cnn's david chalian is here to break it all down. david dana, we have these brand new polls from ssrs in these two critical battleground states, michigan and pennsylvania. just draw a line here. so i'm pennsylvania on the right-hand side, dead heat 46% of 46% trump biden, michigan trump has a lead, 50%, to 42% over biden in michigan. and i want to show you here if i add the third party candidates in like robert kennedy jr. and cornell west, look what happens here. kennedy is getting 18% of michigan, 16% in pennsylvania. now, we'll see and track that throughout the rest of this election season to see if he can hold onto that support. but what we see underneath them is that he's kinda pulling from both parties. but what's critical? to see here is that the third-party candidates really lower the wind number needed for donald trump in these states, he hits 40% and that would be enough. i mean, pennsylvania's within the margin of error, but that would be enough to be numerically on top just 40%. that's really what the third party factor i

joe walsh, alencia johnson, and david chalian. david there is a lot of deja vu happening right now. but did we learn anything laso tonight from huge super tuesday that that was about what this rematch will actually be and how it might be different actually from 20200. >> well, it's going to be >> quite different from 2020 because these two candidates are in different political positions than they were in 2020. totally different contexts. obviously joe biden, after three years as president his popularity has plummeted while in this job. so he's in a different position than he was with the american public. and donald trump isn't entirely different contexts as a four criminal indictments, 91 charges after having inspired an insurrection on the capitol. so that's a totally different context for voters as well. i mean, i think voters will approach this as those cbs numbers play out, approach to this election probably with more dread than they approached the 2020 election. but i am given covid, abby and what that was in 2020 election. i just think this is an entirely here while it's the s

trailing trump by various degrees as they're expected, rematch is getting closer to becoming official david chalian is back with us along with cnn political commentators van jones and s e cupp and david, let's start start with you. i'll bet of a sign has all of this for the biden campaign? >> well, it's not where a president would want to be heading into the heat of his reelection campaign. that being said, you just showed a slew of polls. trump in a couple of them is outside the margin of error with a slight lead in others, it's within the margin of error clearly are the average is 48 to trump 46% for biden. here's the difference. four years ago, we here at cnn did 12th polls matching up biden and trump throughout the entire 19.20 election season. donald trump was never numerically ahead of joe biden. that's not the case now. so joe biden enters with low approval ratings. historically, low approval ratings. and he is doing so in a weaker position than no doubt his campaign would want to be at that point. i just think we're now getting to the season of a fully engaged campaign battle, yet still ple

let's get straight to our political director, david chalian, whos here. we're also joined by republican strategist sarah longwell, cnn political commentator karen and john present hand is the co-founder of punchbowl news. >> david, >> we have so much everywhere from this pole, but let's, let's start with the top line this number is out of michigan is the biden campaign going to be surprised by this? and what's going on underneath this. that's causing this problem. >> well michigan seems to be a particular problem for the biden campaign and has been pretty consistently are poll, in november, december case he had trump up ten points, they're biden has edged up little bit. >> you >> mentioned independence. i think we have a look at independence in michigan and you can see that biden is woefully underperforming what he was doing in michigan in 2021, independence clearly in michigan as part of his victory there in 2020, according to the exit polls and here in our he is way underwater with independence. i don't know >> i'm not sure. okay the independent breakdow

we have cnn political director david chalian hear for some expert analysis on this, how much would you read into this show of force? but also this record hall? >> well, the show of force is designed for the record hall, right i mean, that was the most important thing for them. the biden campaign's perspective to accomplish last night was adding 26 million into the coffers and expanding this fundraising advantage judge, over trump, that the biden team has though the trump campaign notes, they've got a big florida fundraiser coming up where they think they're going to bring in 33 million. so we'll see about that. but clearly the biden team has been raising a ton more money than trump and larger republican effort. and the other piece that the show of force is designed for is to rally the democratic face a full to feel good about joe biden being the nominee, getting behind him, you know, so much of what we've talked about in the lead up to this campaign season has been pieces of the biden coalition that haven't quite shown up in force in the polling so far, that he had back in 2020 when he

but, but, but, >> yeah, new pooling out your david chalian highlighting this morning that when you look and michigan and pennsylvania and the new cnn polling the way that people are voting democrats and republicans. it's, it's, they're voting on donald trump. they're voting either against donald trump or for donald trump having little to do with joe biden, but doesn't this speak to that? >> this week's have larger attitude about donald trump, but it's not, it's not the specifics on this and it also we should remember donald trump isn't a set of policy proposals. he's an attitude. you either like that that attuned and embrace that attitude, or you don't. >> yeah. >> but. that's the reality of where voters are and if you look in michigan or other swing states, you said earlier, but, but, but that is the hardest thing about this election because we can look at donald trump strength and say, but, but, but we hear week here, problem here, problem there. joe biden, incumbent president, but weakness with hispanics, weakness with african americans, but the border, this is why this election is s

and i interviewed david chalian this week about that. and i think one of the things he noted is that it was sort of a right-wing issue and now it's moved into the mainstream very clearly. and so biden has to keep talking about it really, that he's doing something. >> even if just talking about it and talking about this bill counteract the fact that there have been millions of people coming across the border town racks that he's on the top of his mind. he can't pretend it's not happening and i think especially when others like fetterman eric adams in these blue states, when they see it up close, everybody's talking about it, so he can't not talk about he's got to act like he's acting even if even the eye care and this is a problem and he can't let trump run away with it. >> i mean, it is a problem. it is, of course i mean, everyone is saying it's a crisis. hakeem jeffries is saying it's a crisis. what of the democratic leader of the house, i mean, this isn't something that the democrats are saying, isn't a problem. the issue here is that

break this all down with cnn senior political analyst, gloria borger, and cnn political director david chalian. thanks both for being with us. glory of the question now becomes where do those haley voters go? >> well as poor haley voters out in the wilderness, where are they going to go? it's not clear where they're going to go. you heard that biden is saying, you know, come to my side, the weather's great and trump's sort of not doing that although he does need the haley voters. and we saw that last night because he needs he needs to broaden his base. he needs more moderates. he needs he needs those people and the exit polls showed very strongly in north carolina, for example, that 81% of those haley voters said that they weren't interested in donald trump. so he's got a lot of work to do to win them. and the question is whether he's willing to do that. he's never been known as somebody who's out there trying to increase his his base of support. but the people running his campaign know they have to do that. >> we should just know when we talk about these haley voters, right? these are people

kaitlan stay with us house, want to bring in more of our political team and our political director david chalian is with us, walkers you've been looking very closely at those exit poll results that we got last night. walk us through a potential warning sign for trump right now, based on what you saw? >> yeah. i just want to pick up on something kaitlan is saying here though the trump campaign by clearly being aware they want to appeal to some of those haley voters. shows that they are on a dual strategy. they yes, they want to expand the electorate and the maga base, but they also understand because it's not just haley voters as some mythical thing. what she represents independent voters trump resistant republicans. they need those as part of the polled here as a game of addition, if you look in the virginia exit poll last night, we asked folks, are you going to vote republican in november regardless of the nominee? now, this is among haley's voters in virginia, 69% say no, it's not an automatic vote for the republican in north carolina, even more so, haley supporters said 79% said no, i am not

weekend's worth of public polling has democrats on edge to say the least, cnn political director david chalian is here at the magic wall to break it all down. the floor is yours? >> yes. so take a look here. we got four polls over the weekend, all in the field last week that meet cnn standards for reporting. and what you see as a very similar story across all of them data, which is that donald trump is numerically ahead of joe biden nationally 47, 45 in the wall street journal. a couple of polls, new york times and cbs, just outside the margin of error, wall street journal and fox have trump ahead inside the margin of error. no clear leader and if you average all the polls together, our cnn poll of polls has at 48% trump 46% biden again, this is national, we know about the path to 270. this is national snapshot. and another thing to look at inside the new york times poll is where joe biden is underperforming some key demographic groups that he had with him in 2020. so again, i want to say this is a poll, and these are exit polls of actual voters. those are two different things, but instructive

and as we david chalian outlined all the things, all the things he needs to achieve with this speech, you see other members of the president's cabinet there, the secretary of agriculture, tom vilsack, the secretary of commerce, gina raimondo, and on and on. is it deb haaland, who is the designee, voted no or we do not know yet. >> we just saw a picture of her. oh, so it's not her picture of deb haaland. she just posted a picture with the many members of the cabinet. so it's not one we don't see is gina raimondo. i'm not saying it's her. >> no, we just saw her on the floor. we just saw gina raimondo . we are sorry, folks at home. we're trying to figure out a nerdy d.c. parlor game, which is, there's the secretary of the interior, deb haaland. so not her. who is the designated survivor? kind of a dark, thing. a dark tradition in this, in this country about who will maintain the continuity of government should the worst possible thing in the history of the known universe happen to this building that we're looking at right now, there is always somebody from the cabinet who does not attend