david goldman on deflation. david goldman on george soros. stay with us. ♪ tom: it's called rochester -- that's what new york got last week. unbelievable. the snow new york got is just another january day. we welcome all of you, seriously, digging out of a serious storm on the east coast. we hope that you are safe today in your travels as you move forward. at some point i will explain where men are men and the snow is deep. i've done my research. it is time for our business flash. johnson ends talks to buy tyco, which could have been valued up to $20 billion. it says a deal may be announced today. they make commercial fire in and securities. people expect bigger bonus and they got a year ago. senior executives predict the average bonus will come to 143,000 u.s. dollars. up theirnco may open ipo to international investors. they say all options are being considered, but their oil reserves won't be put up for sale. francine: vonnie, thank you. will continues to trade at $31 per barrel. let's bring in our chief energy correspondent. javier, there

goldman sachs private wealth management. that's to come on bloomberg markets after the break. ♪ david: welcome back. e now for the bloomberg business flash, and a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. earned $33 million -- $23 million -- goldman sachs ceo earned 23 million dollars in salary and bonuses for 2015. say drillingists global contributes to warming. united airlines may finally be headed toward labor stability. the carrier has approved a contract extension that includes a pay hike. to combine struggled the work force after its merger with continental. >> looking at stocks right now earnings laggards. let's take a look first at american express. american express, you can see for most of the day as we have been reporting has been strengthening the bottom. we are pretty much at session 12.75%.wn by about fourth-quarter profit fell. it lost its deal with cosco. another reason is the stronger dollar. natural gas.n is they are operating in a new reality, looking ahead and saying they want to cut costs by about $1 billion by the end of the year. another company followi

we are still running you david goldman. -- bringing you david goldman.nce, stay with us. ♪ francine: welcome back. live pictures from hong kong. it seems like it is nice in hong kong. china.go deep into at the mandarin hotel, center square. deep into china. francine: here is vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: german police broke up an anti-immigrant protest over the weekend in cologne. demonstrators demanded action after hundreds of sexual assaults on women blamed on immigrants. angela merkel says she will try to make it easier to expel immigrants who commit crimes. a tornado leaves some florida residents with a daunting cleanup. a twister hits the west coast city of cape coral with 135 mile-per-hour wind. damage to about 200 homes will reach $6 million. no one was hurt. the gunman occupying federal property in oregon sent words that they need basic supplies. they have vowed not to leave until locals are given control of federal land. authorities say it could take months before joaquin guzman on is sent to the u.s.. he was recaptured two days ago after a

david goldman was with us in our second hour, and he is adamant that george soros is wrong. about the fact that we may be looking at it crisis like 2008/ -- at a crisis like 2008. we will be talking about iran and the price of oil -- and one of the other big questions is whether we can find a floor for the price of oil. tom: and we only have space years. francine: depends on how cold it gets. we're back into the. -- in two. ♪ francine: from davos, the banks still take center stage from japan and the united states. legally down the decisions you need to know about, and ask -- can they fight the deflation? about a dozen deals are said to be signed between italy and iran. and twitter shakeup. executives leave and get replaced within the social media company as they address concerns about their stock. good morning, this is "surveillance." tom, start here. we will look at the

alix: that was david goldman on surveillance.coming up, the russell 2000 in its 10th bear market in the last 35 years. the worst may not be over. alix: it is not just a small caps on are in trouble. one analyst gives the biggest dangers for stocks. scarlet: when oil declines, stocks often fall with them. but why? alix: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm alix steel. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. it's time to get a look at the biggest business news right now. arees of kimberly-clark falling after posting fourth-quarter sales and profits that missed analyst estimates. alix: twitter is losing for members of its executive team. the departure comes as the company tries to revive growth after it stock lost half of its value in 12 months. meanwhile, a person familiar says twitter will add two new board members to help it through the turnaround. scarlet: the ceo of valeant pharmaceuticals says he does not know when he will return to work. michael pearson was hospitalized last month with pneumonia and has been on medical leave. his absenc

goldman keeping costs stable. revenue was basically flat for the whole year, down 2% for the full year, and they were able to cut. david had news of this big ago,ement a couple of days really weighing on results for this quarter. alison: i think the good news for goldman is they are finally getting this behind them. i think investors were surprised when they saw the big charge for goldman, only because we had andps like jpmorgan citigroup putting the costs behind them, and goldman still had this sort of large legacy cost. they took a charge and finalize the settlement, and i think that is a positive going into 2016 that they are getting that behind them, whether some of the , likeglobal banks deutsche bank, they still have to settle these large liabilities. lloyd blankfein was praising this about weathering the economic volatility. when you look at goldman sachs compared to other big banks, is it better than the others? i think theyldman, are unique in that they are almost solely focused on the institutional capital markets. they have an out things they are looking at, but in general, they are the most tied to that bus

david: how are people reacting to goldman's call today?ut, it could come back some. sense. it makes i would agree the lower we go, the quicker we rebalance or pull forward the process. what changes in the equation are operational shut-ins. you would not see that until we have breached the $20 per barrel level, mainly in canada. western canadian is already below that. level pressure is building. you damage underground reservoirs when you close projects. it is a game of chicken to see how long they hold out. jon: if your client has been on vacation and woke up and saw futures down 406 points, what would you tell them this was? andrew: i would tell them this is a garden-variety bear market. this lookske 2008, 1998 where theor economy is fine but we are having a lot of market turbulence. they should expect there's probably more of this to come. stephanie: one thing we have not mentioned putting more pressure on causing volatility to equity option, expiration takes place today. those expire at the open. there's a lot of open interest at the 190

on the low side, you talk about david cosnic at goldman. on the high side of things, it's rbc. so those are the strategies, what they think. it's going to be interesting to see whether or not we actually do get a 10% move higher. right now it doesn't feel that way. that's where strategists are starting the year with their forecast call. back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. after the break, an exclusive interview with the san francisco fed president john williams. meanwhile, we have a 16 handle on the dow. a one handle on the s&p. close to session lows with the dow down 450 points. here at the td ameritrade trader group, they work all the time. sup jj? working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app in the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of the other competitors do in desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivative pricing model, honey? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you go

david: look, goldman sachs just a couple of years ago is trading at 90.oing today, it's still at 150. neil: that's a good point. but perspective is everything with this market. even the white house was saying, hey, do you remember where we were? these markets are still more than doubled under us. >> still some people saying that this is healthy to see what we're having that we're still in the middle of a bull market. neil: yes, they're in doveose. >> i give up. david: enough said. neil: poor stra think so it's touch and go. >> no. it's altitude sickness. they don't know where they ar. neil: right. >> i want to point out something, though, that makes me a little sick to my stomach that what the federal reserve did by taking interest rates down to zero, they forced individuals into income-producing securities like guess what produces a lot of income and yield? oil stocks. >> natural liberty partnership. so the federal reserve cuts interest rates to zero. somebody who's a savior who has done good with their money can't make anything on the longer term. neil:

this guy worked at goldman sachs from 1996 to 2011. davidoard and this is one of the names that were mentioned. is one of the prominent names mentioned. he clearly knows the company. and probably knows a few things about the business valeant has been doing. exactly. the main thing it seems to me, they have got a problem with their company. they need to get through this. they need to figure out what went wrong or did not go wrong and get thattors behind them. steve: totally. the market does like clarity and wants to know what is going on and they have to get this behind them. no question about that. john: for me, if you are waking up on wall street and arrived at work, you are not talking about valiant. -- valeant. s&p futures -34 points. i'm not thinking about valeant right now. tradewe had a negative allen so 43.8 9 billion. this is a little tighter than expected. we got the adp headlines 15 minutes ago. at 250 7000 jobs according to adp. nowet the trade balance out . we will get some factory orders about 10:00,later, and durable goods orde

i worked extensively with david goldman and [inaudible] to learn about the industry, to get a betterunderstanding of its interaction with the neighborhood. by working with them i was able to understand it's very important to have a communication between the neighborhood and that cannabis industry. i will be an asset to this password to other boards i serve on requires the same amount of work and a similar level of involvement as well as i'm the voice for very dense and influential section of san francisco. as evidenced by my letter of recommendation from a longtime mentor him and objective listener as well as unable to implement solution i'm hoping to about the cannabis industry and how it interacts with small businesses and neighborhoods throughout san francisco. today, i ask you for your endorsement for neighborhood and small business , brian wallace. >> brian was, thank you for your enthusiasm that you bring to the chamber. can you tell me what do you do for them? >> i'm an accountant >> do you want for yourself or business for yourself? >> pretty much. i work with a small group o

david solomon. the co-head of investment banking at goldman sachs. that coming up in a few minutes. stay with us. you're watching street signs. >>> here are your headlines. >> back above 30. oil prices enjoy their biggest spike in almost three months sending energy stock across europe well into the green. crude guru says prices will keep going higher. >> markets at work and i think the lines will balance by the end of 2016. inventories will draw down during 17 and i think oil will go to $70 by the end of 17. >> stock markets take their cue as the stock 600 surges. >> if you're prepared to take a long-term view and you can live with volatility in the short-term there's quite a lot emerging. >> the light goes out for phillips on the $3.3 billion deal. u.s. regulators block the deal to sell it's division to a group of asian investors. >> the french economy minister tells cnbc that mario draghi is doing his best but calls for urgent structure reforms in europe. >> my view is that these measures are critical for the coming month and we keep pushing and accelerating these reforms. >> welcome back to st

david: ted cruz is a real challenge to donald trump now. he is putting the canadian thing. goldmans pushing all the buttons. >> it is the birther argument all over again, but this time it is ted cruz. david: guilt by association. stephanie: i find it funny. look at donald trump's presentation. rooting for another guy, wishing him the best, sitting back. i have interviewed donald trump, and i assure you he is always leaning in and you are on a tiny stool. >> he is a charismatic man. you can catch the full interview with donald trump here tonight on 5:00 p.m. eastern with all the respect. more on "bloomberg go" next. ♪ >> profits go up as expenses fall. u.s. stock futures are little changed after what some call and emotional's l off over the last two weeks. and this bonds for you. a record-breaking debt sale to pay for it takeover of sab miller. ♪ welcome to the second hour of bloomberg . stephanie: our anchor in from london, jon ferro. a coworker who has done much better since having to sit next to me, cio of oppenheimer funds to cover extraordinary markets. refugees keep pourin

goldman's chief u.s. equities strategist, david kostin. to have you back. >> nice to see you. >> we had you on repeatedly. your thesis has remained the same, fading margins. this time you gave a list of companies expected to actually gain some basis points in the market. are those your favorites? >> when i think about it, margins, energy, china are your three big issues to be focusing on for this year. margins are the most fundamentally driven in terms of stock selection. we looked through some companies which we expect and my analyst colleagues at goldman expect margin improvement 50 basis points or more 2016 and 2017, the reason this is important is that margins have been flat the last five years. we look at alphabet or google, starbucks, visa, amgen, bristol-myers. they're in a rare area -- we only found 34 companies that met that criteria, growing margins over the next couple years by 50 basis pointses or more. >> how does that counter your view of what the overall markets will do. >> margins have peaked in the market, the economy grow

david: we have talked about the role that might have in s and saw anterest note from goldman sachs sayinghey are going to be laying off. specifically for bond trading banks, they have been waiting for a pickup in interest rates and economic activity. are sort of running out of time and running out of runway. that's a little bit of what we are seeing from goldman. they have been committed to extend come trading even with the slowdown and now you are seeing them say activity has gotten so low that we may have to cut more than we usually do at the end of the year. david: i want to ask you about what jamie dimon had to say about the general economy. he talked about the prospects for a recession and how that bank is weathering the downturn we are seeing. guest: he talked down any concerns on the conference call today. they put aside some extra money to cover losses on energy loans and he said it's not that bad. to the extent it gets worse, we think we can ride it out. tried to say caution wasn't needed or that they can weather the storm. david: thank you very much. still ahead, leonardo dicapr

goldman sachs, david, a great supporter of american express, today lowers the hammer.s number, say a gigantic decline from 2015, frankly. remember this is down number, 2015, from 690 to 545. 20 percent by low 2015. they under estimated the impact of the costco split t. company let you believe it was not that important. >> since then the company said many times over it wasn't economic for to us do it. but it was a material number. the thing about americanic e express, they're saying the company doesn't want to do anything. they're sanguine. >> what does it take to get america e american express its mojo back? it lost it a long time. >> they decide, you know what, we've won powerball. we split it. they're gone. it would take those two guys to win powerball before i would buy this one or also if you don't win powerball say, hey, i'm done. let's talk about another emerging market. something unprecedented. >> all right. gore give my orange thing. >> anthem literally in a public fight is saying that american express, scripps, a lot of express issuesch owes them $3 billion sa

david: it could be. candidates for all in the presidential race. they said they were going to do it. what did goldmanget for paying hillary clinton to do a list -- to do all the speeches, and why did they do it? what do you think they got for their money? david: i don't think they got anything. i think she is compelling. path to stop the bernie sanders's momentum? think electability. the clinton hemp -- campaign had some ads of the week ago. let's look beyond iowa and new hampshire. let's not forget you will have real rank-and-file democrats, not the independent, and at the polls showing more socialist than capitalist in iowa. we love when you come in because we love how spirited you are. ton: do you have any reason think bernie sanders is not physically fit to be president of the united states? david: no, i do not. fitness a physical test. david brock, thanks for coming in. coming up, robert gates, after this. ♪ there is water gate, the famous gate around the white house and of course there is robert gates, former secretary of defense and the author of this, his new book, his third book. a passion f

david petreaus will not be demoted. petraeus was forced to resign in 2012 after admitting to an but as julianna goldman reports, defense secretary ashton carter is letting the general keep his four stars and pull pension. >> reporter: in a three-sentence all right sent to the leaders of the senate armed services committee the pentagon said an army review recommended no additional action and secretary carter considered this matter closed. the decision largely ends the saga surrounding the retired four-star general who last year admitted to giving his biographer and lover, paula broadwell, several notebooks he knew contained highly classified information and initially lying about it to f.b.i. >> i can only say again how sorry i am to let-- to those i let down. >> reporter: as carter weighed whether to demote david petreaus and reduce his military pension by $40,000 a year, a number of lawmakers in both parties came to his defense. in a letter earlier this month, senators john mccain and jack reed said petraeus apologized and shouldn't face additional punishment. fate also comes up on the campaign trail. >> if there's an

goldman sachs. i want to talk -- toss it now to david.s to we may be here in the swiss else but we are not entirely removed from the markets. everyone here talked about it here the message i'm getting is yes, it is bad. there is no question. but it is not that bad. that people might be overreacting. stephanie: i think people feel it is bad. they do not feel it is in freefall. this is possibly a massive correction but let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater. maybe this is the time for investment. >> i have heard that perspective from steve schwarzman this morning. but last night talking to a couple of real money investors, i was surprised by the degree of bearishness. i wish i could share more with you, but these are people who have many billions of dollars to invest and they are legitimately worried that what we see now -- where the bottom is is very difficult to know. they worry is sustainability and technology. with market's down, will that money disappear? cleantech.ting we are coming off of top 21. bright future, a clean futur

david dieian. he's contributing writer for the new republic. you had a great piece about the meaning of that goldman sacks loan for ted cruz. you know, cruz in some ways has been so successful at so minutely crafting his positions and persona to match perfectly the base's positions and persona that it's -- i think it's been hard for opponents to find ways to outflank him. this strikes me as actually possibly a problem for him politically. >> yeah, this certainly could be it. i mean there are just waves of hypocrisy here. first of all, cruz said in sort of his biographical information that he risked his net worth. he put all his chips in to become a senator and, in fact, what he did was he risked -- didn't even risk. gold man sacks' money. he got a loan to actually put that money into his race. you know, he's been banging crony capitalism. he's been banging that drum on the campaign trail and then taking money from large banks, not just goldman sacks but citi as well. there's a lot there, but i think this is more of an inequality issue, an issue about the kind of candidates we get to run for office.

goldman sachs. so many different storylines leading up to this. we're just a couple hours away. melissa, david. melissa: he talks about it and says i will not get into it. that's perfect. blake, thank you very very much. reporter: that's trump. david: our maria bartiromo is getting ready to moderate the second debate. she joins us now from charleston. maria, does this feel any different from the last one? >> it actually does, david. you know why it is different? the news flow is different. if you consider the fact since november, the first debate on the fox business network so much has occurred. number one, look at terrorism. you had san bernardino, you had paris, 1000 investigations in the u.s. right now concerning isis sympathizers and isis-related cases. when it comes to terrorism and national security a lot has changed. that issue catapulted up to number one issue for the american people. look at economy, look at the stock market. we begin the year with worst performance for any year ever. that indicates real nervousness and uneasiness on part of investors voters viewers. what behind that?

david: capria and other problem for hillary right now is her husband bill is imagined he took 2.2 million from goldmanachet as an asset to the campaign is going down. look at this bill clinton's favorability has never been this low, 39% rate even when monica lewinsky was in the news it wasn't as low so she's losing one of her main asset on the campaign trail. >> well i'm here in des moines and i'm interested to see being out here on the ground in iowa and i know president clinton is going to be barnstorming over the next several days between now and caucusing on monday monday so will be adjusting to see whether or not that 39% holds up out here in ohio. people still love president clinton but i do think that people are maybe getting a little bit tired of the clintons as they are a little bit tired of the bushes. david: allen it's the women that started with the sexism charge. one-eyed of broderick came back into the picture and of course all the clinton foundation stuff. >> a golden oldie. david:'s numbers are going down, 39%. >> by the way bill clinton lost iowa, remember that and still became the no

david versus goliath. >> cruz is talking about the eligibility issue at a time when he wants to talk about others and this goldman sachs issue he may be fundraising and use it as an attack on "the new york times", which he will no doubt try to do in front of crowd which will be popular but he's been going after donald trump as having new york values. god man sacks is the heart -- >> he's the populace -- he's an anti elite. the graduate of princeton. the graduate of harvard law. the supreme court law clerk. somebody who worked for george w. bush, he's been portraying himself as anti elite. i think more than anything else, the loan from goldman sachs, wife works at goldman sachs not that he was shown favorability in this loan or anything else but i do think that that plays against the type that he is trying to portray on the campaign trail and that could damage him. >> i've seen this in people that adore ted cruz, they know all this about him but they like him because he still has conservative principles going through the circles. he has a fine pedigree. >> i would disagree. for a lot of voters in iowa this is new

david: gentlemen, we appreciate it. melissa. melissa: two weeks before iowa and there is no holding back. >> you received $600,000 in speaking fees from goldmanachs in one year. >> senator sanders, you're only one on this stage that voted to deregulate the financial market in 20:00. melissa: hillary clinton going on attack against bernie sanders as he gains momentum in early states. we have lee carter, gop communications strategist. we have chuck rocha, democratic strategist with solidarity strategies. guys, thanks for joining us. as people at home were watching that last night, the top debate question on google, quote, will hillary clinton be prosecuted. that was top question on google. trended and being searched, what did hillary clinton do that was illegal? chuck, would that make you nervous if you were working on her campaign if this is top topic going on? >> that is not what you want searched on candidates. i worked for candidates all over country. you want people to like you, identify your opposition quickly. that is what you saw last night. most heated debate we've had on the our side of the aisle. she took i to bernie sanders because

goldman and deutsche bank. all the talk is also about barclays. we still don't have confirmation. something like a thousand jobs set to go in corporate finance and the equities derivatives business. davidright. 10% of the investment banking staff. asia will be most affected. things like m&a, ecm and dcm, and effectively they are pulling equitiese cash business. effectively, they are pulling out of australia, korea, taiwan and malaysia. we go. the next graphic shows you the cuts that took place in japan. was announced during a town hall meeting this morning at 7:30 by the president. 80 physicians exiting the cash -- 80es business physicians. has a mention, exiting the cash equities business. -- 80 positions. they are a sickly setting that business down. so everything from research and bond trading, effective immediately. rishaad: that's quite something. that's a big part of the bank. david: we did reach out the barclays. they may knows. rishaad: let's get away from the bad news. what is the good news? david: they are keeping the derivatives trading. they are not pulling out of asia. they will still be here in hong kong. less manpower, obviously. hong kong, china, singapore, india. japan

goldman and sachs. he's a harvard educated constitutional lawyer. he's not a poor guy. >> yeah, if you look at the race he talked about, david was spending $25 milliond cruz didn't have wealthy do donors. this is a story to the activist who supported his long shot candidacy. cruz and his wife took out a loan betting on themselves because they believed in running for the senate. that's a pretty big risk to take. four people with good jobs. heidi believes in her husband so much right now, she quit her job to work at the campaign. it's a commitmea symbol of comm. where's he suppose to get a loan? is heidi suppose to go to a competing bank, is he suppose to barter chibckens in order to ru for senate? >> what would that look like and what are you suggesting? >> what are you suggesting that ted cruz can't get. >> the chicken reference is weird. your communication is professional. it was a loser for ted cruz and if he wants to try to be the nominee and be president for the united states you got to find out a way to unite america and not divide it. >> all right. i'm going to have to leave it there. that was interesting. john avalon, amanda carpenter, thanks

david bowie. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. wells fargo is moving higher by half a percent with goldman sachs upgrading that bank to buy from neutral saying wells fargo is well positioned to deal with a variety of potential negative factors like low oil prices or a slower chinese economy. hershey downgraded to neutral from overweight at jpmorgan. the chocolatemaker overly optimistic about its earnings growth. hershey's is down just over 1%. and another mega merger in health care. shire buying baxalta creating a giant in the treatment of rare diseases. shire stock is taking a hit of 9% on that news. baxalta down just over 2%. shire's ceo will join us to tell us what that means for his company and you the investor. >> as we continue with a discussion of health care, it's the biggest health care investing event of the year, the jpmorgan conference in san francisco. more than 450 companies, 3,000 investors, and who is there in the center of it all? our meg terrell with the ceo of johnson & johnson. first on cnbc. hi, meg. >> tyler, hi. thank you so much. alex gorsky, the ceo of j & j, thank

david: that is the wish for the 20 16th presidential election. thank you, larry think. great to have you with us. when we come back, goldman .resident that is next. ♪ matt: welcome back. i am matt miller. if you have not checked your phone, you will be surprised by the asian markets overnight. the nikkei up 6%. hopes foras the world more stimulus from central banks after mark your druggies ecb meeting -- after mario draghi's ecb meeting yesterday. european markets up, they percent plus gains for the cac up and sos, the dax is the ftse. in the u.s., gaining as well. dow jones futures steadily climbing throughout the program, now up 215 points. one interesting stock to know before i pass it back to stephanie, apple. coming out and saying that they think the iphone seven could aost the stock 50%, adding quarter of $1 trillion. stephanie: thank you. the hot topic of debate in china. i want to welcome -- sorry, i got confused. goldman sachs president and coo gary cohen. -- cohn. we already heard it will be a hard landing for china. there is a real divide. what do you think? gary: thank you for having me. i do not believe that.