fed chief j powell warning economic pain, but the fed will do next with jpmorgan strategist david kelly. later drought conditions around the country causing business disruptions and lost profits. we will look at the problems and opportunities for investors. we begin as always with three things investors should be thinking about right now. market selloff. stocks got slammed after fed chief jerome powell took a stance on inflation and caught investors by surprise. rising mortgage rates are pulling the housing market and showing up in prices. home heating prices are surging again. what to expect this winter and energy stocks to consider. on "barron's roundtable," andrew bary, megan casella. megan:it's doing okay and there was a lot of chaos. what happened? andrew: jerome powell happened. the miami times, research notes this week, he was more hawkish than expected and the market was not ready for that. i don't think the market was ready for brevity either. he finished his talk at 10:10, the market was hanging in adhesive abruptly stopped and the market immediately tagged 10-11. carleton: we

but i have you in the room. >> david: i'm on the couch. >> kelly: we have physical people here. >> david my kids in new york where i am from am i husband just -- my son just graduated in the spring. >> kelly: you are an empty nest are. >> david: i am an empty nester. >> kelly: is that exciting or nervous? you get your life back. >> david: you have these concerns that you don't have to think about anymore but you think about, when are they going to get home from school and all that stuff. >> kelly: and you are nervous and they are not ever in your roof not to and make you nervous, but they are not they are. >> david: they will come back, right? >> kelly: for holidays at least, i have a five and 7-year-old, what were the hardest ones? was it teenage years? >> david: no, yes, they are all challenging i guess. >> kelly: well, that's not -- >> david: they all of their specific challenges, they all have their hurdles. >> kelly: i feel like my 7-year-old is 16, she is just confused. >> david: girls get very mature when they are young. >> kelly: so feisty and she wants a job, i am like you are s

chief strategist david kelly. david, i want to start with u.s.. the fed is in the fight of its life against inflation and jay powell and company are armed with rate hikes, we know that wal-mart and home depot are learning to be way more fleet of foot and benefits inve investord which side has the most powerful weaponry right now? >> the important thing to realize is the war on inflation will be won. it's just a matter of how long it'll teenage we've already seen inflation basically flat line in the month of july. i think we'll get the same report for august. i don't think preisz will increase at all in august so year over year basis, things are coming down. even with wal-mart, i mean, i don't comment on individual stocks, but if you listen to the story they've told, what they've said is a lot of middle income and upper income consumers are actually shopping more aggressively at wal-mart because they want to try and beat inflation. everyone is very conscious-over inflation but when people are conscious of it, they make moves that tend to cause infl

kelli's family. his name was david marshburn. li, but had an intense interest in her case from the day she disappeared. >> she was in the military. you just don't up and disappear. she was a young female. that's not right. >> he is both a bounty hunter and private investigator. his specialty, finding people, dead or alive. >> i knew she wasn't alive. i knew she needed to be found. >> she seemed like a really nice -- >> remember that tv interview nick holbert did? marshburn saw it too. >> when i'm watching him it's like, dude, i can tell you're lying, he did it, he knows where she's at, he killed her. >> and marshburn was also convinced he could find kelli bordeaux. operating on his own time and own dime, marshburn started carefully researching the details of kelli's disappearance. >> i don't know what got into me to do it. i mean i just did it. >> to bring some answers to her family. >> yeah, i love doing it. i love helping a family out. >> marshburn was convinced holbert had buried kelli close to the froggy bottoms bar somewhere

david kelly seeing -- saying that he will fully be invested in equities. s&p futures point upwards by 0.2%. s&p was unchanged by the close of the session stateside. nominal movement on the back of the gdp print. u.s. 10 year currently at 2.86. brent is at $99 a barrel. francine: we are getting a little bit of data that the hohman i cpi -- the spain final july harmonized cpi rises. we have a great charts looking at -- seeing that consumers are getting second credit cards. in terms of the sectors that are moving the most, look at health care. there is a story about one of their drugs possible, leaving to some of the concerns that is putting pressure on these pharmaceuticals like gsk. travel and leisure are the biggest gainer. this is on the back of oil gaining 7.8 percent, and we also have technology, retail, and consumer goods. let's get straight to our bloomberg managing mliv editor, mark cudmore. you are looking at consumer credit. mark: i found a new data series this weekend. it is the federal reserve measure, the net change of consumer credit each month

we heard from david kelly about how this all relates to possible criminal activity. >> the question here is, there was conversation and interaction between the national archives and the trump camp. what did he say, and what did he do? it may well be at the end of the day that this case is only about that. we want our documents back, they're important to the national security, we're taking them back. it could also be a lot more than that and it may well be because he lied about it or he did something under the table, not wanting people to see what he was doing. >> the level of public guessing here is understandable, and it's basically required because of the security rules around secrecy of the probe and the way donald trump is being so selective. as i discussed tonight with neal katyal. donald trump complaining and complaining but not revealing anything about what they took out of his home, which makes you wonder does he know that what they took would make him look really bad. so we have a former federal prosecutor right after this break. r federal prosecutor right after this break. i re

david kelly will give us his take. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the idea that we are going to start cutting rates early next year, when inflation is very likely going to be well, well, well in excess of our target, i think it is not realistic. i think a much more likely scenario is to raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well back to 3%. i would think about easing back on interest rates. alix: rates are heading higher and staying higher until we get back to that 2%. when you look at this as a very hawkish rhetoric, the market doesn't seem to care. they are definitely on a lower yield bi-risk theme. debbie kelly joins us now from jp morgan analysis. do you buy this rally? >> yes, i do. i think people have been scared about inflation all year. i think the rhetoric about inflation being transitory and being thrown out the window, it is in fact transitory. that was shown by the ppr report yesterday and this morning. gasoline prices are really down one dollar. airline fare

and i want to go now to david kelly. former u.s. attorney for the southern contradict of new york.n that office as an assistant u.s. attorney for rudy giuliani. so three decades of knowing him and our chief correspondent kaitlan collins. let me start with you, david, because you have known giuliani for more than three decades. how worried do you think he should be that he is a confirm target. >> reporter: well, let's break it down. so in a criminal investigation, people fall into one of three categories. you're either a witness, which means you're essentially a bystander, a subject which means you are a party, or a target which means just that. you have literally a bull's-eye on your back. and you've been told that you are the focus of the grand jury investigation which essentially means you're about to be indicted. you have incoming and you need to do something about it quickly. and oftentimes, most often, there is not much you can do about it. so it is the worst nightmare for a defense lawyer to hear, a prosecutor telling you your client is a target of the criminal investigation.

david kelly is the chief of the famed southern district of new york and i should mention, by former bossof our guests have quite a bit of experience in this field and david i want to start with you here in new york. because you have handled many cases. sdny, people knower does a lot. but you also prosecuted and investigated, i should say, john deutsche, former cia director in a democratic administration, about mishandling classified information. what do you see on this search? does it look on the level? >> it's hard not to be on the level, given the level of scrutiny that was most likely given to the weren't be the application for the warrant and the judge who reviewed the warrant. and certainly if there's anything that was improper about it, trump has an opportunity to make a motion to the court to have it reviewed under rule 41, and to even have the documents ginn back the him. he has the opportunity to vindicate himself if he chooses to put his money where his mouth has been. >> when you look at the history doesn't look like this is an area you want to mess around with if you're holdi

and kelly leoffler and david purdue made the same calculation but there was donald trump kept moving the goal posts, kept insisting on more test of loyalty that culminated in his call for both david purdue and kelly leoffler to object to the electoral college and both of them ended up saying they supported donald trump's attempt to block his opponents electoral college confirmation. >> i've been clear that trump has been vocal in these races in georgia and will continue to be. do you see that happening with people in washington like biden or paris or other popular lawmakers? >> it will be interesting to see how rockdale warnock and other democrats treat joe biden because certainly they welcomed his support in 2020 and in 2021 when he came to georgia for several events. he also was here for a voting rights event earlier this year. that got a lot of attention. stacy abrams and not bypassing the personal conflict but it was seen by some as her attempt to distance herself on the president whereas here in georgia that is not seen nearly as anything that she can possibly do because a, she

for life. t's live with kelly and ryan. today, david spade. and from the wonder years, dule hill. on't waste your waste. we'll show you how to make banana peel bacon and apple cider vinegar. all next on live. and now here are kelly ripa and ryan seacrest. ["the business" by tiesto] i like this song. ♪ we've had a million, million nights ♪ -♪ just like this ♪ -i like this song, right? ♪ so let's get down, let's get down to business ♪ tiesto? ♪ let's get down, let's get down to business ♪ yeah. yeah. -ah, listen. -getting down to business. tuesday, august 23rd, 2022. art moore requesting tiesto this morning and getting -it played. i like it. -you know what, art? i like when you request tiesto. -very important. -i like when you do that.

kelli proud and to live your life. >> the family also had something for david marshburn. a very special gift from kelli. >> kelli'ds dog tags. which, that's a great honor in itself. >> this is a very important thing. >> yeah. >> for a soldier. >> i always have these. these will stay with me forever. >> that's all for this edition of "dateline. " i'm natalie morales. thank you for watching. >> i'm craig melvin. >> and i'm natalie morales. >> and this is "dateline". >> my friend called me and she was hysterical. she said sandra has been killed. i was like, oh, my god. as soon as she was killed, we all knew who did it. as the months went on, we just realized that this guy is going to get off. how is this happening? just keep praying. that's all we can do. >> there aren't a lot of murders in paradise. people still talk about this one. >> just a darling girl with two darling children. >> it is a story keith morrison followed for nearly ten years. >> how? when? >> i got a call from her boss, said she hadn't showed up for work. >> they found her in the car. >> i saw in the back o

kelly. >> reporter: hey. good to see you, david. and it's pretty idyllic. you've got the dog herding the cattle, and you kind of forget that these farmers are experiencing some of worst conditions ever because of the drought. the ground is not fit for grazing, and like many others, the ranchers have had to cull the herd because it's more economical to feed them. ultimately, less meat in the years to follow. the usda expects beef production to drop 7% next year, and it's a.com know effect. -- domino effect. so i'm here at diamond w cattle company. they've got 2 the 00 i cows -- 200 cows. i want to introduce you to the owner, mike williams. you've got 200 cows. how has the drought impacted the size of your herd? >> well, we're running about a third of the cattle we normally run on this ranch. it's been a several-year process we've been cry here in california, for several years now. >> reporter: wow. down from 600. so what might that mean for some of our viewers who want to flip some burgers weekend when it comes to prices? >> well, if

. >> martha: when we covered the georgia run-off race, the president was there with kelly lefler and davidting them. that didn't work out. the gop lost the control of the senate. obviously you're in one of the most important races for your party in this country. how are you going to close that gap? >> well, i'm going to get around, listening to what the people got to say. i've invited senator warnock to a debate, which he's hiding behind the media. he's hiding behind his twitter account. he don't want the people to see the contrast between himself and myself. i believe in lower taxes. he believes in higher taxes. he believes in putting men and women sports. i don't. right now he believes people paying someone else's debt. i don't. people need to see the contrast between the two of us and he needs to quit hiding and let people see there's a difference between senator warnock and herschel walker. >> martha: well, we would love to see that debate. we would be happy to host that debate for the two of you. as i said, we have an open invitation for him to come here and tell his side as well. her

david: and as you say, i mean, business owners are not social workers. it's not their job. it's that simple. all right, kelly a california guy and a new york guy, because you love paying more taxes. i know that's the reason, but bottom line is, i mean, there's so many cases recently where business owners are forced to either be cops, checking vaccine records or new, being social workers. it just doesn't make sense to me >> well and we were talking about how in upper west side they tried in new york city post -covid where there were hotels taking in homeless and it really converted whole neighborhoods. they were not equipped -- david: although in fairness that was a voluntary, they had these empty rooms, and they made a deal with the city government to fill the empty rooms, and this is forcing businesses, and i just can't, what it seems to me being they failed miserably to cure the homeless problem from a public policy point of view, and they're passing the buck to business owners. >> first of all they didn't even acknowledge the homeless problem was a problem. they almost looked at it as if there was somethi

the donald trump presidency, we elected our democratic governor or kelly and my area elected our democratic congress elementary, david's. but even then, i have not seen this much political activity and political interests and democratic issues across the date of kansas. so tonight was an amazing night. it is a victory for kansas, and i think it is a victory for the entire country as well. it really shows that people do care about access to abortion, reproductive health min, the state of kansas and in america, kansas is traditionally i mainly conservative states. although you do elect to democratic governors. what kind of pushback do you think you're likely to get from people who support the decision by the supreme court? so in kansas, specifically, this decision was a 2 to one decision. 66, roughly percent of the vote voted against the constitutional amendment, which would drip our state constitution of abortion rights. meanwhile, the other 33 percent was in favor. it is my belief that radical republicans in our state legislature and radical conservatives in our state will try to pose this as a problem and a mistake. a

david eades. the headlines: england's lionesses have won the european championship final at wembley. chloe kellycured its first major football trophy since the 1966 men's world cup. the speaker of the us house of representatives, nancy pelosi, is beginning a tour of singapore, malaysia, south korea and japan. her office made no comment about a possible visit to taiwan, which is claimed by china. beijing has warned of "serious consequences" if she goes there. the office of the prince of wales has insisted that all rules were followed when the prince's charitable fund took a donation of a million

david eades. the headlines: england's lionesses have won the european championship final at wembley. chloe kelly scored england's winner, to secure a 2—1 victory against germany. there were celebrations across the country as england secured its first major football trophy since the 1966 men's world cup. the speaker of the us house of representatives, nancy pelosi, is beginning a tour of singapore, malaysia, south korea and japan. her office made no comment about a possible visit to taiwan, which is claimed by china. beijing has warned of "serious consequences" if she goes there. the office of the prince of wales has insisted that all rules were followed when the prince's charitable fund took a donation of a million pounds from the bin laden family of saudi arabia two years after osama bin laden was killed. the family disowned him in 1994. now on bbc news, dateline london. hello and welcome to the programme which brings together leading british journalists with foreign correspondents based in the uk who write, blog, podcast and broadcast from the dateline london. ballot papers will be sent out in

. >> time now for live with kelly >> time now for live with kelly and ryan.s live with kelly and ryan. today, davidis ♪ -i like this song, right? ♪ so let's get down, let's get down to business ♪ tiesto? ♪ let's get down, let's get down to business ♪ yeah. yeah. -ah, listen. -getting down to business. tuesday, august 23rd, 2022. art moore requesting tiesto this morning and getting -it played. i like it. -you know what, art? i like when you request tiesto. -very important. -i like when you do that.

here to help make sense is david zerbos the floor is yours what do you think is going on here >> well, kelly, i think we're in an economy that in real terms is going nowhere. we have no real growth a lot of people like to call it a recession, some don't. we've added a lot of jobs, vice president got a lot for it productivity has taken it on its chin after an incredible run, but in general, i think the story line is one of a world where the fed has some comfort in this particular structure of the labor market i think they wanted to engineer a slowdown, they've been successful at it, they'll keep doing it, and we'll see inflation come slowly down you think the biggest risk is they accelerate the balance sheet unwind towards the end of this year or early next year explain that >> kelly, we have a ten-year note yield just under 2.9% we haven'ting take that yield up have i high. that's really what drives a love the the tightening of policy it's not what you're doing, it's what's happening with the long end of the yield curve i think the fed will get increasingly frustrated, which i think it wants

david. and for the introduction. i appreciate you putting this together and, of course, the covelli school and for them and jim kelly for that introduction. i'm speaking to you from the upper west side and i'm somewhat near the business school campus which i walked past with some frequency. although a bit of a neighborhooi feel to it. i do want to thank you all for joining this midday in july. i think we are probably getting to the tail end of our resume worlds -- soon worlds where we are doing all this via one form or another. i'm sorry we can't all be together having this conversation. we'll just have to be virtually together as we have been largely for the last 18 months. so i wrote this book first as a question, and the question was how did money shape the united states? a pretty broad question and certainly not one that others haven't dealt with but one that i was particularly fascinated by. and particularly how money in the 19th century was a not necessarily unique american commodity but the united states was unique in the proliferation of money, the prevalence of it, the plethora of paper money that floods th

kelly, thank you for that. back with scott martin and david nicholas on what they make of this story because they were both touchinghis affects the price of goods that they haul. you know how that goes. so play that out. >> yeah. i mean, if we tie it back to inflation, right, how can inflation come down if energy prices are only going up? if you look across europe, energy prices are skyrocketing. this is before we get to winter. so this is what we thought with, obviously, the rush russia-ukraine crisis. if can lower their dependency on russian oil, that will put some stop on putin and maybe we'd see some resolution there, but we just haven't seen it. exports from russia are still continuing to china and india. but domestically, neil, that's one of my keys is why i don't think inflation's going to go down. as we get into these winter months, oil prices are going to continue to head higher or stabilize, in my opinion, it just means americans are paying more at the pump, they have less for other goods and services, and that's how you get that sticky inflation. i think the fed is going to have to continue to be more ha

david. >> actually if you look at endorsements by trump in this primary season, he has had largely wins. there are always losses but interestingly mark kellyne of those 10 vulnerable democrat states and you would think if he had a biden behind him, a popular democrat president, he wouldn't have to run. now he has to run away from biden's border crisis. he has to run away from a president who has let north of 257,000 illegal alien children into america and now they are going to overburdine like new york where they need to hire 1,000 more teachers to deal with the influx of illegal aliens during the last two years. people are looking at their pocket books. they are looking at their economics and inflation and looking at a real recession, not a redefined recession. it all ties to the president and his policies. so his cross-country tour is really a way to come out and be the skilled political liar saying don't pay attention to the economy, don't pay attention to back to school shopping up 6%. we could go down the list. we don't have enough time to tell the negative. >> dagen: the end of 2020 in the fourth quarter in december of 2020 inflation

david, thank you for the introduction. i appreciate that museum of finance putting this together in the cabell he school and jim kelly for the introduction prime speaking to you from the upper west side business school campus which i walk past with some frequency. it's a little bittt of a neighborhood feel to it.or i don't to thank you all for joining this and midday in july. i think of and the tail end of a resume world where we are all doing this via this. i'm sure that will continue at one form of a nether. i'm sorry we cannot so, i wrote this book first with a question and that question was how did money shape the united states? a pretty broad question. certainly not what others haven't dealt with but when i was certainly fascinated by it. i'm particularly count money in the 19th century was not necessarily unique american commodity but the united states was unique in the proliferation of money the prevalence of it. the plethora of paper money that floods the planes and the coast in the united states compared to the illiquidity most part the the world for most of humanil history. most human history or wealth is tied up i

kelly and hobbs as a result of these maga republicans. >> jonathan, you called it a choice quake tonight, two things have happened, one as david jolly pointed out. causing people to think about abortion rights is something other than pro life or not it's more complicated. now it's a rights issue. and maybe more people are realizing that. but the other thing that is happened is turnout. we have a strong turnout tonight, we've had turnout that doesn't feel like a random tuesday night in primaries in the summer. >> that's right and turn out is the whole ball gain in midterm election. it really, these aren't really persuasion elections. they are mobilization elections. and just a few months ago there was a big enthusiasm gap as they call it, between republicans and democrats. and republicans seem significantly more enthusiastic. that has rotated and about a month ago, it was basically even. now, i think with kansas, you are gonna see in the polling and there already some indications of this. the democrats are actually gonna have the edge and enthusiasm mostly because of the abortion issue. but there are these other things that are also encourag

the wake of 9/11, and david jolly, when she says, yes, i'm going to help defeat election deniers, that means one thing. she's going to try to prevent people like doug mastriano or kellyat i will get to, which is this. the bear that liz cheney is now wrestling with that is that of the republican party and honestly of her own participation in the party. does she remain a republican? does she not? the cheney lane of the republican party is a dead-end, electorally. it's going nowhere. there's no reclaiming the party. so, to hear liz cheney say, look, instead of telling you that i'm going to chase another office, what i'm telling you is i'm going to spend my time, my talent, and my resources spotlighting the election deniers within our own party. that is a cause. and the reason it's so important is this, nicole. there is not a lot of like-mindedness between liz cheney and democrats. democrats also are saying, we want to defeat election deniers. but the critical role of liz cheney is that you have someone from within the camp, the gop camp, saying, we have election deniers, anti-democratic, pro-authoritarian actors within the republican party, and i'm going to work to defe

and from the spice girls to david baddiel, who wrote the football classic football's coming home, tweeted... chloe kellyeam. it woke up this morning and thought it was all a dream.— was all a dream. it does not feel real. but was all a dream. it does not feel real- itut it _ was all a dream. it does not feel real. but it is. _ was all a dream. it does not feel real. but it is. and _ was all a dream. it does not feel real. but it is. and hearing i was all a dream. it does not feel real. but it is. and hearing the l real. but it is. and hearing the action, it _ real. but it is. and hearing the action. it got _ real. but it is. and hearing the action, it got me _ real. but it is. and hearing the action, it got me emotional i real. but it is. and hearing the i action, it got me emotional again. because these lionesses... i am going again thinking about it. they have raised the bar, changed the way women's football is viewed for ever. there is no going back. it is women's football is viewed for ever. there is no going back.— there is no going back. it is so matical. there is no going back. it is so magical-