david kelly spoke to bloomberg tv saying it was a bit much. >> i think we are overreacting. it was not good news, it was worse than expected. i think financials are overreacting. the problem with the 10 year treasury near 350, that is ok. but the assumption it is going to get worse, i think it is wrong. jon: so, david kelly seeing this as an overreaction. let us bring in mike mckee for more analysis. mike, the comments you made as the news was breaking this morning was the idea of cementing the rate expectations going into next week. i suppose we had a little wiggle room in the markets heading into the report this morning before we got to reality. mike: that's all that was necessary. we went into this morning with the markets at about 60 basis 66 basis points in terms of a fed move. they really priced in more than the fed doing 75. but there was little chance that wouldn't do a 75, given the situation. given the fact they want to get interest rates up higher to be somewhat restrictive on the economy before we get things out of control. it was the core rate rise, double what

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. >> we've got about four minutes until the news comes out meantime, let's welcome david kelly, chiefategist and k.d. nixon with asset trust wealth management and the manager at morgan stanley investment managers. a lot of brain power here. david kelly, i remember when we began this cycle, forget whether it was april or may, and you said something the typical problem with fed policy under these circumstances is they start too late, they go too high and then stay there too long is that still your fear? >> yeah, absolutely. the fed i think will raise rates 75 basis points and i think in his comments chairman powell is still going to sound very hawkish and pave the way for another 75-basis point hike this economy is slowing down to a crawl. inflation is going to roll over, maybe not as fast as the fed would like, but i think the fedded is in grave danger tipping this economy into recession by being more hawkish than they need to be right now. >> jim, do you agree >> i think david brings up some really good points the thing is that the fed is behind the curve and that, you know, we all kn

i mean, it kind of -- they are doing what i think david kelly wants them to do but maybe not slow enough in that they are saying we'll let this be above target for up to three more years. i think the story here, tyler, as i get it is the fed outhawked the hawks here and i like the phrase marking to mark they went to the market and they went further than the market has gone so right now i'm looking at the fed funds future, the peak rate still being in that april 2023 at 4.62 so now the market and the fed are in line with basically where the peak rate is and where we're going to go. what i think is also as the last guest suggested, a little bit difficult to understand or to equate is someone still modest rise in our unemployment rate. the idea that the only pain that you're going to get, we were down at 3.5 was the low. >> yeah. >> and you're going to go to 4.4, less than a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate while you have a huge increase in the funds rate that attempts to slow the economy, i think that's lacking a little credibility here. i will just say this final point h

we continue with david kelly of jp morgan.he year which is a comparison of japan, europe, u.s., the nominal gdp. if we get a slower disinflation, if we get elevated disinflation, how does that change the difference between real gdp and the inflation component? what does that mean for the businesses of america? francine: i think both -- david: i think both are going to come down. we get a revision to the past five months of gdp data. growth might have been strong at the start of this year but it is coming down. over the next year, next 12 months, we would be lucky to get 2% real gdp growth. maybe add on another 3%. talking about 4%, a little over 4% nominal gdp growth. that is less than we have been seeing the last year. as nominal gdp growth has gone down, that means it is going to be tough for companies to deal with. lisa: that is why we are saying revenue and earnings downgrades. tracking those downgrades and how they have come in. at an accelerated pace you have expressed optimism consistently. i think this is interesting.

joining me now for more on the breaking news, ryan riley, kelly o'donnell, and joining us david henderson, as well. ryan, first to you. you've now had an hour -- you have given him an hour to look through this. let's talk about what you have learned as we've all been speed reading this report of this judge's order which came out about an hour ago. ryan? >> that's right. one of the citations here is they mentioned rudy giuliani as a special master and the idea of having someone look over the questions of executive privilege, and that was back in april of 2021. but that was a much more sort of limited circumstance, because that was -- first of all, giuliani wasn't an attorney, so looking over his materials was much more complex, because he had to protect all the materials of talking with his client, so the fbi search -- this could be a particularly cumbersome process when they open up this idea of looking at whether or not executive privilege claims should set some of these records they seized from mar-a-lago aside, because this isn't just rudy giuliani's communications with the president.

former sdny chief david kelly, also my former boss. welcome back. >> hey, ari, how are you?sting to see james make her case. we've covered that for the bulk of our newscast. we turn now to the case she wants others to make. let's start with sdny, which you used to run. what happens when a referral comes in? what is its significance? what do you think will happen here? >> well, let's start up with the thing you have to understand, which i think -- i'm sure you do, which is, the bar that she has to bring a civil case is much lower than the criminal case, so you take it that way. that's number one. number two, what caught me when i saw that her -- referred to the irs and the southern district was, this is not really news, right? a lot of this stuff has been out there in the news already about inflation of his worth and basically how he did it, so there's not an awful lot of surprises in this complaint. a lot of this stuff has been out there. and i was thinking, she's making a referral, and while she should, but i think that, you know, isn't this stuff that was already out there

both in the house and senate, including, well, let me say first, governor laura kelly and then congresswoman and sharice davids, congressman tracy men, congressman jake la turner, congressman and ron estes, senator jerry moran, senator roger marshall, katherine see karen seaburg and joc president from the american earhart foundation leaders mccarthy and mcconnell. ladies and gentlemen, the honorable laura kelly, governor of kansas. good morning, everybody. i am so delighted to be here and honored at astra for aspira to the stars through difficulty. that is the kansas state motto, a recognition that kansas came into the union as a free state when there was fierce opposition that the spirit of kansans propelled them to beat the odds and accomplish much. who better to represent our great state in statuary hall than dwight d hayes and our and now a native daughter of kansas, amelia earhart. i want to extend my gratitude to our congressional leaders and our kansas delegation for the opportunity to honor one of kansans most iconic figures, a woman who showed all of us what it means to reach for the stars. amelia ear

both in the house and senate, including, well, let me say first, governor laura kelly and then congresswoman and sharice davids, congressman tracy men, congressman jake la turner, congressman and ron estes, senator jerry moran, senator roger marshall, katherine see karen seaburg and joc president from the american earhart foundation leaders mccarthy and mcconnell. ladies and gentlemen, the honorable laura kelly, governor of kansas. good morning, everybody. i am so delighted to be here and honored at astra for aspira to the stars through difficulty. that is the kansas state motto, a recognition that kansas came into the union as a free state when there was fierce opposition that the spirit of kansans propelled them to beat the odds and accomplish much. who better to represent our great state in statuary hall than dwight d hayes and our and now a native daughter of kansas, amelia earhart. i want to extend my gratitude to our congressional leaders and our kansas delegation for the opportunity to honor one of kansans most iconic figures, a woman who showed all of us what it means to reach for the stars. amelia ear

they are voting for -- >> nbc's kelly o'donnell reporting there. that was doctor david priest. he's a former cia officer and a former daily intelligence prefer to then fbi director robert mueller and the former attorney general, john ashcroft. he's also the author of several books, including the presidents book of secrets, the unsettled story of intelligence briefings to americans presidents. david, thank you for joining us today. i will tell you, this is why it's very useful to have people like you here, because i was reading a twitter threat that you put out today. it's picking up traction, which cautions people like me, journalists, and others, to jumping to conclusions about the discovery of empty folders that are marked classified. the rest of us are saying, hold down, there's 40 plus folders that's a classified on them, and no documents in them. where are the documents? you seem to have an answer to that. >> it is possible that there are classified documents still missing. i'm not ruling that out. but we have a bunch of folders that simply say, classified, on them. that m

david. >> rachel, thank you. >>> when we come back here, here in new york, the three children who police say were drowned on coney island. we have news on the mother tonight. >>> and breaking news involving r. kellythis hour. my name is douglas. i'm a writer/director and i'm still working. in the kind of work that i do, you are surrounded by people who are all younger than you. i had to get help somewhere along the line to stay competitive. i discovered prevagen. i started taking it and after a period of time, my memory improved. it was a game-changer for me. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. ♪ ♪ i'm getting vaccinated with prevnar 20. so am i. because i'm at risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. i'm asking about prevnar 20. because there's a chance pneumococcal pneumonia could put me in the hospital. if you're 19 or older with certain chronic conditions like copd, asthma, or diabetes, you may be at an increased risk for pneumococcal pneumonia. prevnar 20 is approved in adults to help prevent infections from 20 strains of the bacteria that cause pneumococcal pneumonia. in just one dose. don't get prevnar 20 if you've had a severe allergic reaction to the vaccine or its ingredients. adults with w

kelly armstrong. my late colleague, jackie walorski, and former representatives kenny mar chant, susan brooks and charlie dent. thank you to davidicilline and jennifer falun gong and all the members i've been privileged to travel the world with, representing the united states. and thank you to the u.s. service members and employees of the state department, usaid, other embassy employees who serve our nation each in their own way and each magnificently. i've seen a lot of change in congress over the last dozen years. over seven years and nearly four congresses have passed since john dingell last stood on this floor. aged wonder if he would be surprised by the bitter divides that have expanded exponentially since that time. but even now his words are worth repeating. they're as true now as they were then and will continue to be for every member who comes after me. you're not important, it's what you can do for the people who sent you here. that's important. and i think we can all agree it is the people who help us do that work, our dedicated staffs, that are important too. so, this one -- so this one's for team ted. thanks to my d