godaddy. >>> we're back with david kelly. welcome, david.k at what jack smith according to filings got ahold of. what do you see there as a prosecution roadmap? >> when i first saw it, i said this is really compelling. first off, you're not going to have the contents of any phone call. it's not like a wiretap. it's unclear from the submission there's actually information, there's actual text messages. if you can actually read the text messages. but even if there's not, this is still really powerful evidence because what a prosecutor will do is take the whole series of calls. when the calls were made, to whom, and really chart it out and draw connections to incidents that coincide. hypothetically, he makes a phone call to roger stone then suddenly, the oath keepers are off and running to the capitol. so it can be very compelling evidence about you know just drawing connecting the dots and drawing connections between phone calls to particular people and then incidents that happened in the wake of those calls. >> as a map, this is farther than

. >> i know you were talking about david kelly. >> david kelly, yeah. >> and he was talking about a pivot that he saw. that this was a pivot today. >> not just that. he points out that when you first start raising rates from low levels, it doesn't have a real market damage. but then similarly, when you start cutting rates, from high levels, you start to affect the economy in a negative way. somewhat counterintuitively. people might wait for lower interest rates if chaircoming. to accelerate the deterioration in the economy. also, the fed themselves is projecting a 4.1 unemployment rate. which would be up about 70 basis points from the low. and whatever historically, the urn employment rate is going up by 50 basis points, it tends to accelerate there to a higher level. goes into another gear. and it's very consistent, historically. i think there's a contradiction, between the dot plot of unemployment rate going to 4.1. and history. i think the fed is going to be wrong on the low end for the unemployment rate for 2024. and i think once you get the market, deinverting the yield curve. and yo

>> we're joined by former sdny chief david kelly. welcome, david.d you specifically on the pence news or if you have anything to say about what ms. cheney said the idea that da wants to make him kind of a star witness. what do you think of that plan? >> i don't know it's a star witness. look, i think she has to provide a lengthy list of witnesses. it's better to be overinclusive than underinclusive. i don't know that i would read this as he's on a deficit list. i think if i was in her shoes and i had access to, he would be somebody i would want to put on. i certainly would want to interview him and have the opportunity to speak to him. i don't know that that has happened yet. you want that to happen before you make the decision whether or not to put him on the stand. >> one potential problem for prosecutors with someone like pence and the history that we know is all these meetings and all this debate, which overlaps with something liz cheney and i were talking about, which is everybody in reality knows they lost the election. there was no widespread

david: kelly, thank you very much. a dire prediction about the market next year. he says 2024 is going to bring, and i'm quoting him now, the biggest crash of our lifetime. economist john lonski is here. what do you think of dent's prediction? >> i think it's a little bit over the top. it's a daring prediction. david: i hope so. >> me too and i don't see any sign of that happening right now. the longer we put off this correction, eventually there's got to be a slow down or mild recession to stop the rapid growth of consumer credit and we've got to do something about the elevated prices in housing and rent and whatnot. david: even as the fed is reducing rates and say they're going to reduce three times in 2024. isn't that going to stall? >> i've got bad news. usually recessions appear after the fed begins toquet rates so i don't think the forthcoming rate cuts will stave off a economic downturn. that may be asking too much. david: the rates come down and cheaper to borrow money and companies can expand and use that cash

david kelly from j.p. morgan, kristin from city global wealth and john from western lit.ou for joining us and welcome. what do you expect the fed to do and what do you expect them to say? >> i don't expect them to change rates. i think we are done with tightening. and i don't think the statement will change that much. i think in the press conference powell will celebrate better- than-expected numbers for 2023 but be cautious on 2024. the important thing is the dot plot. i suspect they will actually move the end of year 2024 number which would mean we don't look at hikes but the only talk once in 2024 and that's a caution and an expression they intend to keep rates higher for longer. i don't think that's how it will turn out but that will be the messaging today. >> kristin, how about you? what do think they will do or say and pick up on david's point about the so-called dot plots and how much the fed may be inclined to cut in 2024. >> i think that's the major question. this will be the third time the fed will pause. effectively everyone knows at this point they are done in

david: kelly, thank you very much. the big apple has a big problem with the migrant surge as well. democratic mayor eric adams says that president biden won't meet with him as the crisis cripples the city. and he's not happy about texas, but asking for them to fix it where it begins. griff: you know, david, eagle pass, texas, the border is roughly 2000 miles south of where we are here in new york city, but texas governor greg abbott has succeeded in bringing that border crisis right here to the big apple. you look at the numbers in new york city, by the way, self-professed sanctuary city for illegal migrants, and dealt with more than 160,000 migrants costing the city more than a billion dollars. 14 buses arrived on a single day this past week and it's indeed infuriating mayor adams who says he needs billions more to the tune of 12 billion over three years, calling on president biden and the federal government to fix this mess. >> the federal government said to new york city, we're not going to do our job, you do our job. you take care of 4,000 people a week, eric, you and your team

david: kelly, thank you for that." media chairman and if editor-in-chief and author of "inflation: what it is, why it's bad and how to fix it." we'll get into that in a second, steve. there's nothing wrong with rah raises, i mean, nothing at all wrong with raises. we should all get raises, but it's the mandate and this whole idea of fair to have the government dictate what fairness is always is trouble, in my use. >> it's about productivity. when you have a more prosperous, productive society, wage as go up. that's been the whole history of this country. when you raise wages artificially, you hurt other parts of society. you raise costs which raises prices which means less sales. and so in california, you know, those businesses have low margins. they're not feast at the trough, so to speak, so they get hit hard. and so they go out of business. how is that helping? 1200 pizza hut drivers ab to be laid off. and so -- about to be laid off. forced mechanician if -- mechanization, who gets hurt when these low cost restaura

tom: what you do is call david kelly at j.p. morgan. david kelly nailed it.been calling for this trajectory to a negative nonfarm payroll statistic. jonathan: -- lisa: to me what priya misra said is lags worth -- lags worked both ways. they will matter for the movement of cash. at some point people will not want to hold their money in money markets. interesting dynamics. jonathan: forever cycles. payrolls at 200000 and everyone is happy. lisa: where did we put jon ferro? jonathan: i will enter miss universe. that will be 200,000 every single friday and they will be like what are you talking about. lisa: you will be like hi. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ >> israel probably has a matter of weeks left to conduct these operations. hamas is using humanitarian losses to build opinion against israel and hamas survival is in the concept that if there is enough pressure on israel to stop operations hama

david j. kelly at jpmorgan and others, and they have been consistently right about this, the overnight fed funds rate is just not as powerful as maybe it used to be in a more industrialized economy, number one. number two, there was so much stimulus in the system that it preemptively stopped there being some sort of credit event. people just did not stop spending. don't listen to my opinion, simply look at how the consumer has behaved this time versus any other time we've seen rates go up this fast. so that's where we are. it doesn't need to stay this way but honestly, we keep saying, well, sooner or later. fine. in the meanwhile, there are things worth investing in. >> our cnbc fed survey perfectly timed, of course, by steve liesman who joins us now, our senior economics reporter, this shows we're looking for cuts next year and it shows that we're looking for a soft landing. are these cuts because they can? sounds like it, not because they have to. >> yeah, i think that the group is bringing down t

david: we love kelly clarkson. underneath the tree. happy holidays. it is 10:00 eastern time. i'm david asman in for stuart varney. let's get to your money. it is all in the green. we see some dow sticklers in the red, five and the red. the dow is up now over one hundred points. it was down earlier after the trading day began. the nasdaq and the s&p in the green all day. s&p is up 21. nasdaq is up 68. 15,000. not 17, 15,000 on the nasdaq. the 10 year treasury yield is down one. 8 basis points, yield is 3.87. house it trading? up a little bit, it is almost $1, $74.78 for a barrel. bitcoin trading down 345, now at 43,630. we just got the latest on consumer sentiment. lauren: the final number better than expected, 69. 7. the reason is we feel better about current economic conditions. the number very strong and expectations, that number increased. that was a good report. lauren: new home sales. lauren: plunged 12.2% november to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000. this is where -- david: that was a big miss. lauren: the sales price keeps going up. $434,700. the october numbe

we are nowhere near a labor slowdown, but there is a school of thought out there led by david kelly andan who made clear we can get there quickly, get the three month moving average under 100,000. that will change things fast. jonathan: here is a company going negative. spotify cutting 17% of jobs. the leadership over at spotify looking for the streamer to be a whole lot leaner. lisa: something like 1500 people. they will also optimize their office space footprint i believe. basically trying to trim costs by reducing the amount of space they have to pay for at a time when they otherwise were facing some negative expectations. we have to emphasize this is coming with revenues that were clearly challenged. jonathan: without a doubt it always amazes. getting away from an office space, that costs money. between $93 million to $108 million and they have seen a robert previously -- a profit previously of $37 million. tom: six plus to put 17, that is 25%. the jobs cut, gm buries it. six headlines down, gm is talking about $2 billion of cost cuts. they are cutting costs in a new world. jonathan

david, david: all right, kelly. drive carefully. it's inclement weather today in chicago and that can be rough. coming up, crime has gotten so bad in california. one celebrity chef says he will never open another restaurant with that full story and meanwhile the israeli military with a mar joy offensive in the second largest city and report from israel. we're approaching the end of the year where you're going to take a look back at some of the best moments on "varney & co.". you do not want to miss that coming up. ♪ they're waiting for you. hey, do you have a second? they're all expecting more. more efficiency. more benefits. more growth. when you realize you can give your people everything, and more. thank you very much. [applause] ask, "now what?" here's what. you go with prudential to protect, empower and grow. with everything you need to deliver, you guessed it... more. one more thing... who's your rock? learn more at prudential.com reliq health is a digital health company targeting the $100 billion virtual care market. reliq is

course, we, we all remember the, um, the, the, the scandals over the iraq war and, and the death of david kellyhe seriousness of it. but it was, it was broader than that. the the bullying and the and the and the bullying and the and the and the dishonesty, the lack of um, professionalism something professionalism was something that the civil service were obviously, uh, deeply embarrassed about. and complained to. um to tony blair. and they didn't, um, get anywhere. but i don't think it's surprising that his antics caused considerable dismay . okay. >> and how much influence kevin did, did alastair campbell have, you know, was it was it can it be any way compared to the influence that a certain dominic cummings appeared to have over bofis cummings appeared to have over boris johnson ? boris johnson? >> i think we can overplay sometimes the impact advisors can have and i mean , to quote can have and i mean, to quote margaret thatcher, which is not something i tend to do very often. advisers advise and ministers decide. so alyssa campbell played campbell worked hard, played hard, definitely. and yo

kelly. >> hi david, this is the actual behind become of that home alone is based off of so i decided to re-createping trip and try to do it a specific that is specific as possible given the rents we do not go to the same grocery store for selecting look at what about so there's a few things there's concern about income clearly has laundry but also, some food items like have a gallon of milk, some chocolate and orange juice and plastic army figurines and a loaf of bread as well as cling wrap and as you saw from the scene coming wanted to know stover under suffers president versace to do the good and as we went to this process, we found that the tide laundry detergent was actually 8099, which in itself was almost as he spent the movie on all of these items. if you tingle, this experiment having it done faster, shows that you're looking at another putting $4.2023, for that shortlist of groceries and he does use that 1 dollar coupon and we cannot find the green army figurines grocery store so just looking at whether it was about five - $10 and we were looking at about $70 for that total so you know,

. >> so kelly and david talked about it. >> the trillion dollars that americans have taket n on in creditd consumer debt, i meaner debt., that those numbs are hard to get away from because you're you're paying upwards becau of, as dav, said, 20% oftentimes trying 20 from under. the all that massive spending. so i don't know how you turnso n the corner on that, but you've got to reduce the amount thd this that the government is spending. >> absolutely. and this is why biden is lashing ou lashit at the media, because he realizes that there's no amount of spin that can make up for expenn rey that americans are on the ground facing. we've mentioned the credit cardd debt. we've mentioned the high interest rates, the high mortgage rates. there was anotheates, thr pointm that came out this week that homelessness has hit a record higsh under the biden administration. americans across the board are sufferind the g except for s the upper class. it's the middle class that is. saring bearing the brunt of this. it's the lower class that is bearing the brunt of on itths. and those are the people that b

then when i turned around and i mean, for me, i am seeing kelly ripa and david canary on stage left was would love to know that is a possibility. an "all my children" reboot. it's been bantered about. we've heard the name pine valley. is there any hope for that? >> you know, i think there is. i really thought it had gone away. of course, with the writers strike and actors strike, kind of everything, it felt like a very long time. but i am told that it is still alive. certainly, i would be in the very best of hands and that those characters back as well. how in would we all be? >> it would be fantastic. and when you say haley, i mean it s kelly. and i remember her her first day. she was playing haley as a goth. >> yes, i remember it so well. >> i did not miss an episode. >> no. >> and i met her actually in the ladies room. we had met and there was a public ladies room. that's all we had at all. my children. so we were there. and the first thing she said to me was, you know, i signed my contract because i'll get erica kane's wardrobe. i love it. >> i know you're good. ship was born. that'

kelly ann let's pick up on james carville, david axelrod who helped elect barack obama sound doom gloomthey're both winners. they got presidents elected. if i were a democrat i would get rid of biden harris roll the dice loses 2024 but save the party. this is a party that for years including with obama and clinton two presidents that axelrod and carville helped elect were outsiders. last election cycle they did hillary clinton and joe biden swamp creatures and joe biden has no good news in polling data. i'm amazed the mainstream media keep investing millions of dollars in polling knowing it's going to be so bad for joe biden. can't they just hire a few extra people instead of doing all this bad polling? they almost want him out. joe biden's polls have never been as bad or donald trumps as good from 2016-2020 including on who you trust more to handle the economy border middle east crime you name it. the democrat party has advantages but not enough for biden. the modern democrat party wakes up they get in their vehicle vehicle and get an abortion. the end. kamala harris is part of that mi

david. joining us now, in korea, now the carlos kelly clapped she lecturer at stanford university.e, the temperatures for is now over. explain what we can expect from the israelis, from hamas as a fighting intensifies again. >> i think, a loose, or can seat much of this and over the next couple of days, as you mentioned. as your correspondent, mentioned negotiators withdrawn from the gulf working on continue to exchange israeli hostages held by hamas -- palestinian prisoners and as for materials. with, that now israel has decided to continue the bombardment in the south. that's because that's where -- the mastermind of the october 7th massacre is believed to be hiding with the other top hamas leadership. and the trouble as you noted, is that israel is now controlling the northern part of the gaza strip, and they had people relocate to the south. now they're stuck in the south and now people are looking to other places, but it's a very small piece of territory. >> today, i'm sure you heard vice president harris and by saying that u.s. must work towards that new humanitarian policy.

david, what about this one? would you pick it up? >> no, we wouldn't, kelly. look, i'm a big user. i love amazon.at product, but those deals come at a cost. most people don't recognize that amazon is actually a very profitable business. we showed they have burned 175 billion dollars over the last five years. you can see this on the doubt -- balance sheet. the death has gone up dramatically over the last ten years. that is how they fund the losses. the stock price is implying a drastically more profitable future. margins will double and the company will grow revenues at 50% compounded annually for 30 years. in some ways, it's even more expensive than amd. look, i love amazon as a consumer, and i think all consumers should love companies that are losing money giving you such good deals. i mean it seems too good to be true because it is too good to be true. yes, we would pass on amazon. >> but they made money in their cloud division and so forth. i guess that your point. they are actually using that money to subsidize losses and other businesses. >> only partially subsidizing losses. tyler, you know

kelly and mark deja vu: today, actor, author and comedian leslie jones. plus, our holiday family cookie countdown continues with our very own "live" family producer david mullen.

david: very good. we are interested in those examples. thank you very much. growing number of student loan borrowers defaulting on their payments. kelly many borrowers are defaulting despite a three year pause? >> reporter: 9 million of the 22 million student loan borrowers did not make their payment, 40%, the white house introducing a 1-year program to help those in debt by changing the way disaffected. it is reported to the big three credit companies after 90 days, the part of education announcing through september 30th of next year, any missed payments were not reported as delicacies, but interest will continue to accrue on those loans. codecs of the student loan bailout say taking out a loan and not paying it back is unfair. >> this is so unfair it touches on being un-american because your responsibility as an individual when you take on debt to get a college degree, you are investing in your self, you know with certainty you have to pay it back it makes you be a more responsible person when you think that way. forgiving debt is such horrific idea. lauren: one third of those surveyed do not expect to pay their student loans off by

kelly saberi join ising me now. more importantly, do voters think the economy has improved? >> reporter: david fox business polling that shows 38% of iowa republicans are most concerned about the economy followed by immigration and then foreign policy. if i spoke to people on chicago's magnificent mile this morning to see if they agree. take a listen. >> in my opinion, money has been a little bit tighter. honestly, it's been quite the hole in the wallet type of situation. >> reporter: writing in the "wall street journal," treasury secretary janet yellen said, quote, because wages have risen more than prices since 2019, a worker earning the median wage can today buy the same basket of services in 2019 with nearly $1,000 left over to save or spend. let's break down what the department of labor is saying. the bureau of labor statistics indicates that the average hourly earnings have gown down -- gone down 2.8 better between january 201 21 and november 2023. over the same time period, inflation rose 17.2%. president biden has been on the road touting bidenomics, this as the iowa caucuses are just

david, thank you for joining me. by the way, i'm filling in on "maria bartiromo's wall street" tonight so make sure to tune in. that's it for me. how about kelly o'grady. kelly: that's great, cheryl. i'll be tuning in to see you on wall street tonight. happy new year, my friend. all right, folks, can the bulls pull them on the record high and can watch the whole show to see. investors taking profits on the final trading day and the dow is any gain for the third straight record and all three majors flat for the week and dow snapping three day win streak and s&p on pace to close lower after five days of gain and nasdaq on track to close in the red for the second day in a row. the bulls outwin the bear this is year. all three indexes will end 2023 double done a lot returns and the dow up over 13% and s&p 500 gain 24% and 934 points. what a year. the nasdaq rallied over 43% this year thanks to what else, artificial intelligence boom top trend nvidia, meta and tesla. ai chip leader nvidia rocketing over 230% and meta, social network power house up over 193% and investors piling into tesla with a gain of 103% right now. basically it's very good to b

kelly evans. here's what's ahead, goldman sachs said rate cuts are coming, i lot them and fast federal fed officials are trying to push that back a little bit and davidpowell should tread carefully plus the mart guest says don't let this rally make you chase it, but if you're looking to get in there are two areas that are still cheap and one of them is controversial and that's why he likes it he joins u

david, thank you for joining me. by the way, i'm filling in on "maria bartiromo's wall street" tonight so make sure to tune in. that's it for me. how about kelly

kelly evans. here's what's ahead, goldman sachs said rate cuts are coming, i lot them and fast federal fed officials are trying to push that back a little bit and david zervos ss while they have a victory lap, jay powell should tread carefully plus the mart guest says don't let this rally make you chase it, but if you're looking to get in there are two areas that are still cheap and one of them is controversial and that's why he likes it he joins us ahead to make his case >> few predicted, carter worth is here with two trades he's fading now let's start with the latest on thesmarkets and dom chu has the numbers and we're comi off a win streak. >> we'll keep it going at least for the time bei what we're seeing rate n is a stock market that's tilting toward t session highs we're up only half a percent and it currently sits at 4744 and change 4818 was the rord dintraday hi and 45% with the s&p 500. the dow drills up 37,321 the last tradeay and t nasdaq composite pacinghe advance marginally, up about one-half of 1%, 14,902 for the nasdaq composite there. is the merger monday news we got speculation at's going on r about who would potentially take over th

kelly dearman, department director within the health service agency and as well as city attorney david chui, so it was a nice mix of folks and they were really very passionate about the wellbeing program and it's just i think a testament to the work carrie and her team have done. a small team, but they have broad reach and it was very satisfying to see them being recognized as well. the-i had the opportunity to testify before the board of supervisors budget finance committee november 15, where supervisor chan had as the chair of that committee had requested that we come and do some explaining about the rate increases in the environment we are currently in with the cost of healthcare. as a precursor to when we come before the board for the rates and benefits in july, we are under extreme time constraints and everyone appreciates that, so i do respect her forward thinking about laying the ground for what they may see in the coming year. i don't know if supervisor dorsey you were able to attend and did you have comments? okay. appreciate you participating in that. we also continue to pres

kelly dearman, department director within the health service agency and as well as city attorney david so it was a nice mix of folks and they were really very passionate about the wellbeing program and it's just i think a testament to the work carrie and her team have done. a small team, but they have broad reach and it was very satisfying to see them being recognized as well. the-i had the opportunity to testify before the board of supervisors budget finance committee november 15, where supervisor chan had as the chair of that committee had requested that we come and do some explaining about the rate increases in the environment we are currently in with the cost of healthcare. as a precursor to when we come before the board for the rates and benefits in july, we are under extreme time constraints and everyone appreciates that, so i do respect her forward thinking about laying the ground for what they may see in the coming year. i don't know if supervisor dorsey you were able to attend and did you have comments? okay. appreciate you participating in that. we also continue to pressure a

taliban to go to camp david, bill barr thought that donald trump's foreign policy was corrupt not just when it came to russia but also turkey, could he look into it. general kellymittee and the legacy of your father's work at the pentagon, i mean, that letter from the former secretaries of defense was put together by you and your husband and your father because you know these people and you were raised in their world. looking back do you think even putting aside the conduct around ending our tradition of a peaceful transfer of power that there were national security reasons not to have supported him? >> look, i think certainly there were times when he did and said things that i thought were fundamentally wrong, you know, and then i said so at the time when he stood next to vladimir putin in helsinki and said he trusted putin more than his own intelligence officers. so i think that, you know, if you list all of those people who worked for him, one of the things that we have to do over the course of the next year is put that back in the forefront of people's memory so that they understand these people who swore an oath to the constitution, who know him best, unde