what is happening in europe is systemic, and david kostin saying the markets could rise 12% 13% fromhat's a strong case they make. >> the pessimist and the bears combine a multiple group of statistics that can augment their case, but if you look at m&a activity, while it's down year over year, the pattern has been robust. today we had the biggest private equity acquisition in terms of $10 billion plus acquisition by apollo global buying adt. now, again, we look at the economy mostly service driven economy. the fact that the industrial sector, manufacturing sector may be hit by the current down trend in oil prices, i think that would be short-lived. at one point this could be a recovery at the back end of 2016, perhaps 2017. >> joe, the question i have, given your sort of doomy scenario for the u.s. economy s it already baked into the stock market? >> no. >> for so many weeks we were looking at the stock market saying it's way too pessimistic. >> i don't think it is. if you look at high yield credit spreads they typically led in each of the last three downturns, we're at levels in the