to answer that question is david kostin, goldman sachs chief u.s.who sees the s&p at 3400. love to get your call. walk me through what your call is. david: basically, the economy in the u.s. is going to be growing pretty strongly. we are looking probably around 2.3%, close to 2.5% growth next year, well above where the consensus is. the way to make money is to be investing and have a view that is different from consensus, and have consensus move towards you. so broadly speaking, a more up to mr. view on overall activity. that is what drives earnings. earnings have been growing around 6%, a little higher than nominal gdp. so includes the benefit of some buybacks. in the uncertainty that you have as a result of the election will be resolved. the most probable outcome is that it will be resolved in a divided government. if you want to summarize my outlook for the year, it is basically united we fall, divided we rise. the idea of a divided government is the u.s. equity market generally does better, outperforms better, in an environment where there is a

chiefak to david kostin, u.s. equity strategist at goldman sachs, for his 2020 call.er 10. is it trade or central bank in terms of market sentiment over the next few days? s&p off by about 0.3%. the fed kicks off its two day meeting today. sterling continues its climb higher as you inch towards that election on thursday. is it buy the rumor, sell the news? in the

down 427 joining us to discuss this and a lot more is goldman's equity strategist dpaf strategist david kostinpost nine >> good morning, carl. >> how much of your 2020 outlook is contingent on a phase one deal >>reality, not so much think about what's happening, certainly contributing to a high level of corporate uncertainty ceo confidence lowest in a decade the consumer confidence is extremely high and 70% of the u.s. economy is represented by the consumer you think about unemployment rate lowest in 50 years, we have wages rising 3.5%, well above inflation, you have the fed on hold for probably the election, and consumer balance sheets have been delevered for the last decade from the consumer side very, very strong and that's really a driver of the overall profit economic forecast. certainly the trade is a topic for lots of discussion and i think it's contributing to a lot of the ceo economic anxiety about business activity for the next year. >> matt mally points out this is the third time in seven to eight months that comments by president trump have sent the market lower on average you see