. >> right jim, let's ask about that to david kostin are goldman sachs chief equity strategist, greato talk to you on the phone, david, good morning. >> good morning, carl, david, sara and jim i guess as well >> um-hum. >> yep, we're all here david, i'll start out. we've seen some pretty benign revisions lately on hospitalization forecasts, the number of deaths, the need for ventilators, stimulus as jim just said has been quick and responsive so as others around the street try to sniff out reasons to rally, is that doing anything in terms of your view for year-end? >> no. first of all, the way i think about this is a little bit of asymmetry in terms of a downside risk towards a level in the s&p 500 of around 2,000, which is down almost 25% and upside of around 10% to a target at the end of the year of 3,000 so that asymmetry is not sort of symmetrical in terms of timing i think the risk is much further to the downside, and a couple points that i'll make. there's a lot of good things happening, a few weeks ago it was concerns about solvency and liquidity for so many companies and inste

520, worse day since april 1st a lot to watch the oil deal, of course, this goldman call out of david kostin, some downgrades of deere and caterpillar and now the president saying on twitter it is the white house that has the authority to open or close states, not the governors. that's going to get interesting. >> that is going to get interesting. that is increasingly the focus of not only the american public but of investors in the markets is how and when we're going to start to see the economy begin to come back to life, whether we've actually based on the numbers we've had in the last couple days seen a peak in confirmed cases, what all of that looks like. then, of course, the fact that we have earning season kicking off in earnest this week, the big banks reporting and some key other names that give us some insight into the state of the economy and things like trade flows like jb hunt will report this week too. number of analysts and strategists saying the number is meaningless, the eps number is meaningless, any guidance for q2 probably up in the air as well, that it's really going to b

coming up on the program, david kostin, goldman sachs chief u.s.gist, will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg on this: americas" wednesday, april 22. i'm alix steel. let's take it from the top. intercontinentalexchange prepares contracts for negative trading. >> off the coast of california, dozens of ships from long beach to san francisco bay carrying 20% of global consumption. they are just sitting there for days. alix: online storage keeps filling up, with the latest read on cushing on deck. offof demand now sits california's coast with nowhere to go. >> we are taking aggressive but appropriate steps to help the industry and help this economy. alix: the white house looks at multiple ways to support domestic oil companies, from loans to royalty exemptions to pressure on china to help by u.s. oil. if the other consuming countries do not follow the footsteps of australia, u.s., and others to put oil in reserves, we may see further downward pressure on the prices. alix: distressed debt in the u.s. energy sector jumping

wells tomorrow jim, last week you did say you were beginning to feel better, it does look like david kostin shares that view today >> yes i think david has been, let's say, someone who believed that things may not bottom. and i think he's switched. he may say it's not in dramatic fashion because it's near the middle of his piece, not at the top. i do believe what we're seeing is a gigantic amount of liquidity put in by the fed, when it looked like things might go back down that mattered a lot. a lot of companies that don't have great credit are getting money. that's important we saw the retailers go up last week it wasn't because retail sales were good, but because their credit was so bad, maybe they get a chance to raise money. ge raising money a lot of companies are raising money that would not be able to raise money. that is going to be a major change to keep a lot of companies out of bankruptcy and in the same way that the oil deal might keep companies out of bankruptcy david, you know there's so much debt being issued now. and there's some opportunities for people who want to buy debt,

due to whatever it takes, according to goldman sachs equity strategist even -- equity strategist david kostinre of 20,000 is no in store for the s&p -- of 2000 is no longer likely for the s&p." what do you think? >> i think it is going to be more than that, but i think it is also correct in that it is going to be hard to push the markets a lot lower than we saw in march. the reason is i think a lot of people look at the broad destruction in earnings power across the market, but it really has to do with how the market is constructed, and i think this specific stat really drives at home. since the beginning of the year, downward revisions to the forward 12 months earning estimate for the nasdaq 100, only down 3%. s&p 500 down 13%. the equally weighted s&p 500 down 20%. markets are going to look forward now to q3. q1 doesn't matter. q2 is a washout. they are going to look forward to q3 and say, how long does the economic disaster basically last? that is the variable everyone is going to look at to say, ok, are they going to push the market ,ack down towards the lows where the multiple for the s&

return to single stocks that's not very much of a discount on earnings for the year >> i read david kostin'siece he's sticking by his 3,000 i said that's kind of crazy. then i said, i don't know, we're at 2,800 it's not so crazy. i think that we're dealing with the best of the best today j&j is the number one drug company. jpmorgan is the number one bank. they're really good. and i just think that they make create a false sense of security >> yeah. guys, we were talking as well about retail jim was mentioning it. sorry, carl. this question of who will pay rent and the reits we got a little bit of color from jeff blough, the large real estate investment trust that they have, the hudson yards development on the far west side of manhattan with a lot of commercial tenants and an enormous mall and their time warner center uptown gives you a further sense when he's talking about retail tenants. >> the soft spot has been the retail sector. you know, whether it's our hudson yards, time warner center, or the malls throughout the country, all those assets have really suffered and our tenants are suffe

wells tomorrow jim, last week you did say you were beginning to feel better, it does look like david kostinhat view today >> yes