thank you so much, david rosenberg, chief economist at gluskin sheff.till ahead, a shakeup at morgan stanley and why that led to the departure of one of its top executives. we will be back. ♪ betty: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm betty liu. morgan stanley shares are down at this hour following news that greg fleming is leaving. of course, the markets are down in general. he led the firm's retail brokerage unit. in may, he talked to bloomberg television about growth for the investment management division. >> i think we're on track. our investment management business sometimes gets less attention because of the size of the investment bank. a really good investment performance in most parts of investment management and the investment management business, if you manage money well for your clients, you tend to get more money from the existing clients and you tend to get new clients. we feel like we are on track for that target. michael moore, who covers morgan stanley for bloomberg news, is here with more. tell us about this shakeup that led to his d

joining us is david rosenberg. so many people have come through. say the stock market is down 8%, 9% for the year. the u.s. economy is on solid footing right now. is the market trying to tell us a different story? or is something else beginning on? what do you think? >> well, i think that the stock market is pricing itself globally towards a much slower growth profile going forward. you've got some jurisdictions around the world that are priced for recessions. in canada, the tsx is down more than 20%. and the u.s., as rough as it's been, it's been a little more contained. you know, look, the stock market has about as good a track record as the consensus economics community. i seem to recall that in the fall of 2011, the s&p 500 was down 22%, and if you remember become then, the ecri economic index, and that was dripping off of everybody's tongues. it was another one of these, very steep, but plain vanilla corrections. looking at where you would go in a recession, this thing would have a lot further on the downside. i'm treating this as a severe cor

david rosenberg.nd strategist. >> david, thank you for joining us. good morning to you. what's the overriding problem effecting markets so far year to date? >> well, i wouldn't make a recession a base case scenario but we're talking about financial markets here and financial markets respond to change at the margin. so although i wouldn't be predicting a global session and it will be difficult to have one unless the u.s. joins. what happened is at the risk of recession it's higher today than it was three, six, or 12 months ago. and the way the markets work or the way a portfolio manager's mind works is a probability curve and the range of outcomes is always wide but i would say that what the markets are responding to right now is that rising risk, whatever the odds may be has gone up and the markets have reacted accordingly. >> so you heard david just say markets don't yield recessions except for 2008 and everybody is wondering whether the market is divorced from reality. why is the market freak out so

david rosenberg says he is not concerned. the'm not worried about u.s. economy.k it will be a better year moderately than last year. yearnk it will be the where the wolf shows up at the end of the story. ♪ i am scrolling through. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. shares of sun edison falling 39% today. behind the drop, the clean energy developer announcing a plan to boost its balance sheet, taking on $950 million in debt and issue 40 million new shares. american apparel receiving eight takeover bid of $200 million. completed, the founder would return to the company in some capacity. he was fired a year ago after allegations of misconduct. bed bath & beyond earnings met expectations, eps of $1.09 a share, revenue was $3 billion. year, have fallen 4% this 40% over the past 12 months. that is your bloomberg business flash. "what'd you miss?" report tomorrow may not be the best thing. report would encourage the fed to continue hiking interest rates, something investors may not want to see. at 200,000,ng in the jobless rate at 5%. hourly earnings rising 2.7

joining us now, david rosenberg, chief economist, the adding strategist, okay, change my approach to you think the s&p remains flat for 2016. i think of you as an economist, and i wish you were not back in the business of trying to forecast stock prices, but also with us is john, the chief market strategist thinking the s&p hits 2300 by end of the year. did we ask you to take the flat case, david, or did you -- you're back in the business of forecasting stock prices? you didn't learn your lesson last time? >> well, excuse me, but i think going into the crisis, when i was at merrill, i nailed the call. the problem i had was i didn't turn bullish enough, you know, going in. >> missed on the s&p. >> i say i missed about the first half of the bull market. that much is true. >> but i just don't know why economists try to -- >> nobody's -- >> the target's -- >> nobody's perfect including you, but i was asked about my view on the stock market, and i think that when i said it's going to be flattish, it's going to be marked with a lot of volatility along the way, and the big impediment is that

david: coming up, we will bring you the fed decision live at 2:00. our special guest will include if overfed governor and jeffrey rosenberg of blackrock. one bank's profits were almost wiped out last quarter, but the chairman says it was a good year. up about me says it's time for an alternative to linkedin. david: we will talk to a wall street banker making a big bet in commodities. ♪ alix: i'm alix steel on this is your global business report. takes 1.8 billion dollars in charges, so why doesn't the had banker think that's no good. royal dutch shell has approval for its biggest acquisition ever. how has the deal involved as oil prices decline? a banklet's start with that book $1.8 billion in charges in the fourth quarter. much of that was to compensate british clients wrongly sold protection insurance. there is a bit of a disconnect between the financial and what they call the real economy. even though i don't like to separate that -- we are very much a real economy. complex. is not there are a lot of issues happening in the middle east and china transformation and this uncertainty -- there is more them plucks the end i think you wil