a single best chart in honor of david rosenberg. it highs. moving down to the blue regression would be rosenberg levels. you are not suggesting we get there, are you? seea: i do not think we rates go a lot lower because we do not see the fed easing but i do not think we see the 4% either. cycle fed ends the hiking at 2.5, how do you get the u.s. ten-year much higher? that would mean investors want compensation for duration risk, which they do not seem to want here because global rates are low. keep thistrade will premium -- the curve will dimon, 5%. you are adamant the specter sustains. david: take a look at that chart and you will see a secular downtrend which is on track, punctuated by cyclical upturns. brexit, we got to 3.3% last fall, and now we are back to 2.5%. we are past peak inflation. core cpi inflation peaked in july and it is down to around 2% . we have never seen core inflation peak at such a low level. inflation will be rolling over, we are past the peak level of growth. the impact of what the fed has done, the lack of

david rosenberg, appreciate having you with us, sharing those thoughts >>> obviously, no one's going to be sad to see may go away. we'll talk early next week about june and whether or not that typically underperforming month lives up to par. right now, we're down 226, get to the judge >>> carl, thanks, i'm scott wapner, trump's tariff shocker sinking stocks this hour, is a major correction now more likely than not it's 12:00 noon, this is "the halftime report. >> announcer: stocks sell off after president trump's threat to slam mexico with tariffs. 10 of 11 sectors now negative for the month. 7 out of dow 30 stocks now at or below christmas eve lows is it time to put some money back into the market the halftime investment committee is lining up with their picks. plus, a man who made the right call last year on what will happen in 2019 see what morgan creeks' mark sees now and we'll get to ahead of what could be the big movers from the asco cancer fighting conference this weekend "the halftime report" with scott wapner begins right now. >> welcome, good to have you with us on this fri

you can always get that from david rosenberg. this is a stunning chart.ployed america and how the president got elected. this is the labor pool of the united states of america back to eisenhower adjusted for population growth. all you need to know is that we are in unprecedented decline and labor pool and we are back to the late 70's. it is a stunning observation by david rosenberg. i am looking at two things. first, i'm looking at romania. we just saw pictures of the and they arer, stuck between the u.s. and iran. i am looking at the italian premier speaking to reporters. and they will talks about -- talk about brexit. and actually what it means for europe. hearing how to deal with libya. let's get to the bloomberg terminal. i changed it at the last minute. we looked at the weakest levels since january. we looked at the fragility of the economy. and what we tracked thanks to hillary clark is volatility. let's get straight to the top story. president trump updating the rhetoric. clouded by are retaliation by beijing. theident trump: you see tariffs, they

let's bring in chief strategist and chief economist david rosenberg, who joins us on the phone. we've got looming threat of tariffs on mexican goods and you have been calling for a long time for the fed to cut rates by labor day. you think this increases the chance of that happening >> well, i certainly thing it does raise the odds that the fed is going to have to ratify the message that the bond market has already been giving it for the better part of the past few months you know, the comment is that this is a tariff on mexico, but you know, we -- the north american manufacturing is the largest supply chain on the planet, and someone's got to do the arithmetic on what this means for all the american companies that make stuff in mexico that gets exported into the united states that's going to be faced with a higher tax. that's really part of the process here is that this isn't just something on mexico this is something that actually also affects corporate america's bottom line. >> you're right, david i think a census report says two-thirds of imports are what they call related p

with us is david rosenberg, and christian mahami does it matter to the markets whether we get a deal think for the here and now it certainly does matter we can always have a situation where the talks get extended but, remember, that the market were pricing in, just a week ago, that a deal was going to be in the works for this week so i think what this affects, maybe not so much earnings, because if they raise tariffs, that's going to have an impact, but right now it is the extended uncertainty, going to have an impact on the market multiple, i think it is the heightened uncertainty, maybe, you know, a week from now we'll get a deal or maybe not but it is the fact that the markets had been pricing in something happening by tomorrow. that hasn't happened we're not getting the deal that quickly. >> it looks less certain by the day, especially after a rally cry from the president like that they broke the deal. it does appear to be it an issue for earnings in the economy as well, david. if we do see those tariff rates go to 25%, who pays for that >> right, right. china will pay and consum

but i think we'll be fine. >> david rosenberg, thanks for joining us >> thank you >> still to come, it has been another brutal week for tesla. as wall street turns its back on elon musk. but we'll speak with the ceo of one firm, making the case for climbing to $4,000 a share and why she is sticking by her call. >> up next, a hidden side effect of the trade war could be benefitting the home builders. we'll explain that after the break. dow is up 120 with about 45 minutes before the close through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from finding out what's selling best... to managing your fleet... to collaborating remotely with your teams. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence. - anncr: as you grow older, -your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the numb

we will be joined by david rosenberg, who said he is starting to see cracks in the economy and david laduke of bny mell ions coming up. "the halftime report" returns after this this is my headquarters. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities - trade confirmed - and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. wewithout the planet cooler getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. internet that puts alright boys, time to eat. that handles anything. [ crowd cheering ] that protects what's important. and reaches everywhere. this is beyond wifi. this is xfi. >>> we're back cbs having a rough start to 2019 traders betting on more down side doc, you're at the telestrator what have you got? >> we see somebody selling an awful lot of puts today