david rosenberg, chief economist. david, we cannot ignore what happened between powell's announcement wednesday and yesterday at 1:30 p.m. eastern when the president threw down this gauntlet again by threatening china with new tariffs, which could ding the u.s. economy. what is your prediction today on how many rate cuts we will see? >> well, you know, my forecast didn't change since the fomc meeting and it didn't change with the latest threat of these extended tariffs. this is a bit of a game changer because it's going to hit a lot of consumer items that were previously exempt from the previous round of tariff increases. but in answer to your question, i think that the u.s. economy is going to be going into recession at some point in the next year, and so i think that we are going back down to zero in the funds rate and i think the fed is going to have to get even more aggressive than that with its balance sheet and other forms of non-conventional easing. you know, powell said that we're not one and done so he already

we were just discussing the inverted yield curve david rosenberg tweeted out a fascinating stat this has happened three months and it's a 100% correct predictor of a recession when that happens what's your take and what's your preferred inverted yield curve >> well, at this point, none of that okay david rosenberg is one of the best there is, and he understands markets. but one thing i understand, i have been watching markets for 40 years and there is a unique circumstance here. negative interest rates is the gorilla in the kitchen, and central banks are all too happy to point fingers in every direction as to what's causing a potential slowdown or recession. in my opinion, i guarantee there's going to be a recession some time in the next ten years. i don't think you're going to be enlightened by three months or two years to tens. >> thank you, rick >> we have a news alert on alphabet let's go to deirdre bosa for the details. >> melissa, there department of justice is bringing a criminal dierment against anthony levandowski. he's the ex-google engineer at the center of the past waymo/

joining us now is david rosenberg. so, david, we understand that you think that a recession is already here you're also the strategist w mentioned. what do you do if you are in that camp, if you believe that >> well, look, the yield curve inversion leads the economy, so i didn't say the recession is actually starting right now and i think that everybody is quite correct, it is hard to get an early recession when the consumer is still spending you know, that is still the case i think the question we want to answer as economists is in three, six, nine or twelve months, what is the shape of the consumer going to look like? the consumer doesn't operate in isolation of the other parts of the economy any more than the u.s. economy operates in isolation from what is happening around the world it is just a case of the lags. now, look, i'm a firm believer in the yield curve, but it is not the only indicator around. you have so many other confirmations out there. if you concocted a cyclical sock index from the s&p 500, which we'

that does it for us, stay tuned for our live show at the top of the hour we're joined by david rosenberg. nd much more, 1:00 p.m stn. "halftime report" back with your final trades after this. olio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities - trade confirmed - and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. is it to carry cargo... greatness of an suv? or to carry on a legacy? its show of strength... or its sign of intelligence? in crossing harsh terrain... or breaking new ground? this is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedes-benz summer event, going on now. lease the gla 250 suv for just $329 a month with credit toward your first month's payment at the mercedes-benz summer event. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. >>> on why the tide is turping ctr the worst s&p performing seor this year go to tradingnation.cnbc.comeed n gives you more. was in

equity strategy, diane swonk with grand thorton and david rosenberg with glasskin chef. thank you for being with us. diana, i'll start with you some will say this is just the inverted yield curve is a culmination of all of the other data points we have leading up to this point and that weak data from around the world, weakening data here in the united states, et cetera. >> i do think it is different this time. it doesn't matter if the market sees it as a recession signal because it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, something the fed is concerned about at this stage of the game. a lot of reasons to say it is different. and even then it may not matter because if the market believes it is a true recession signal, it will have ramifications throughout the market place. what will be interesting is how to react to the retail sales data tomorrow, likely to be strong, coming off to the july number -- the june number also strong this is going to be a lot of noise for the market to sort of absorb and try to figure out how to place their bets. >> what are the steps in the self

let's bring in jim paulison, chief investment strategist at the luther group and on the phone, david rosenberg david, if i start with you, this big sell-off -- well, buying of bonds, selling in the yields of bonds we've seen once again today. where do you see it going from here >> well, in terms of the stock mark market, we are just at this point, having broken below the 50 and the 100-day trend lines, we're just 3% away now from 2793 that's the number that if you're bullish, you hope holds, because that's the 200-day moving average. and i talk about this, because this has largely been more of a technically driven market anyways as opposed to strictly fundamentals so pay attention to the technicals and again, if you believed that this bull market is ongoing, that 2018 trend line has actually completely flatlined right now. as for bonds, this is really the mother of all short covering rallies. you know, we went into the month expecting a short position on the board of trade of 363,000 net shorts and they're hurting right now. so this is probably going to continue, whether you believe the fundam

david rosenberg, chief strategist and economist who says powell will be the pinata whether the recessionquincy crosby. thanks for your time today quincy, i tweeted a comment you made last week about the germans and deficit spending are these headlines significant in your view >> well, yeah. the market is sensitive to the headlines. the question is -- this has been brewing for some time, the chatter about them moving away from a balanced budget to deficit spending think about it they are talking about if germany goes into a recession. you clearly need to do this before that. whether or not the $55 billion will be enough nonetheless, it has helped the markets today. it help push up yields it's help given a more positive risk tone to the market. >> david, how much of this three-day bounce is about policy hope >> i actually think a lot of is just technical in nature this is the -- wednesday was the sixth time this year that the dow plunged at least 400 points. and so what happens is that you get dramatically oversold and then you gifill the gaps, whichi technical jargon for a rebound for the

. >>> joining us is dianne swaung, david rosenberg.od to see you. >> good morning. >> dianne, your thoughts on the number i am struck by the revisions, the number of multiple job holders. there is some interesting data on temp help what's your take >> well, the overall jobs numbers we are seeing a slowdown we expected to see i am worried like steve is, we will see more of a pullback in hiring something's got to give. either we see confidence in the business sector come back and hiring pick up again, or we are going to see the slowdown in hiring which will effect consumer spending and the tariffs are not good news out there. there was a silver lining to this number on a participation rate almost all of the increase in participation rate came from black teens and those with less than a high school degree. and that's really important because it means we are pulling in people who were formally not reengaged if this economy. that's something chairman powell has been very focused on in running the economy, sustaining the expansion, bringing

for more on this sell-off, david rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at bluffkin chef. thank you for joining us. >> thank you trade wars escalating. no doubt about that. where does it leave us >> in uncertainty and very difficult to justify valuations of the stock market that are above historical norms in the context of the trade war economic war with china. that's the story now rerating of risk. >> how big of a risk do you think that is. a trade war becomes with a currency cocktail mixed in >> i think you got a bunch of things we went into the year with a lot of hope, we thought there would be a trade deal with china, that's not happening we thought we would get a smooth brexit that's not happening sara mentioned earlier about the powell pivot that was seven months ago. if anything this sell-off started early last week and continue nad wednesday and thursday that was what you call a hawkish cut last week of the fed meeting. the fed bungled the communication skills yet again this conflunence of factors, the trade war between japan and south korea, you get the sense now